I kind of like Huskers and points if defense comes to play. And a money line wager for home field.
Opening Line vs Wolverines +18.5
- Thread starter BadgerPete
- Start date
I will have to see what my system says. But Nebraska's lack of discipline (pen yards) is concerning.
Yup, possibly a 24-6 type game. Like you said, we might be only down 10–14 pts but the offense hasn’t crossed the 50 yard line all day, and they aren’t giving us much reason to believe they will.
USC didn’t look very good last night. Their defense isn’t nearly as good as Oregon’s, so I think Colorado will score a little.
Vegas doesn't think, it collects money.
They put the line at a point which not the public, but the gambling public will fall 50 percent either side.
Sometimes these lines seem odd but that is to people living in a biased area. Our perception of Nebraska isn't the same as someone in another area.
Was 34-3 last year with a questionable TD late…
How we concoct 21 -24 worth of points next week is anyone guess..
I said 21 to my buds at the bar last night. Our only hope is if their starting QB turns the ball over 4-5 times….
Agree. I think it’s gonna be ugly. We are one dimension on offense and not even really good at that. I see a lot of 3 and outs. The D will get tired. Not to mention we look pretty undisciplined.
Same. Michigan hasn't exactly blown the doors off so far this year. But we will need to give our defense a break and move the ball... Not sure we will be able to run it right at them and I feel very confident that will stop our option game. Read option will be our best bet.
Thank you for being the “Vegas doesn’t think, they just want 50% money on each side” guy. Appreciate you bringing this brand new information we’ve never heard before. Yeah, of course, but 17-24 pt underdogs (over the entire history of betting on NCAA football) only win outright 7% of the time. That’s not good, that means Vegas is saying we are likely fvcked. Here’s an excerpt from Phil Steele’s article on sports betting, specifically breaks down how underdogs do(money line) against 17-24 pt favorites…
You would figure that the percentage of upsets in the 17.5-to-24-point favorites level would go up drastically from that 3.1% in the previous category. Since 1997 there have been 2,464 teams that have been favored by 17.5 to 24 points. I am still a little surprised that there were only 182 upsets in this level of favorites over the 26-year span. That is just 7.39% upsets, which comes out to 1 upset loss for every 13.5 teams that are favored by 17.5 to 24 points. In 2020 there were six such upsets. LSU was +23.5 and thanks in part to a shoe toss upset Florida. Michigan St was +22 but took down rival Michigan. Rice was +22 and stunned a ranked undefeated Marshall on the road. Tulsa was +20.5 but upset UCF for a 2nd straight year. Maryland was the first team in FBS history (established 1979) to win consecutive games as a dog of 18+ when they upset Minnesota as a 20.5 dog then Penn St listed above the next week. The other was when New Mexico +18 took down Wyoming. In 2021 there were nine upsets by teams that were in the +17.5 to +24 range. Illinois was +24 at Penn St, ULM was +23.5 at home vs Troy, Rice was +23.5 at UAB, South Carolina was +20.5 at home vs Florida, New Mexico was +20 at Wyoming, Northern Illinois was +19 at Georgia Tech, Texas A&M was +18 at home vs Bama, Utah St was +17.5 at Wash St and Florida St was +17.5 at North Carolina (can you believe that was the spread just two years ago). Last year the number rose to 13 upsets in this category with the biggest upsets being Georgia Southern +23.5 over Nebraska, Connecticut +23 over Fresno, Georgia Tech +22 over Pitt, South Carolina +22 over Tennessee, Georgia Tech +21 over North Carolina, Eastern Michigan +20.5 over Arizona St and Marshall +20.5 over Notre Dame.
Full article: https://philsteele.com/how-often-to-underdogs-win-outright/
Yeah it could get there not gonna lie. Michigan is pretty much what Rhule wants to be eventually. So running out of the I and formations like that are not gonna throw them off as they see it everyday in practice. Only way to really shock them would be maybe an early TE seam play or something that gets caught.
38-13
Main hope is Haarberg doesn't get injured with our o-line getting badly beat and him taking big hits.
Main hope is Haarberg doesn't get injured with our o-line getting badly beat and him taking big hits.
If we could get a chunk plays from Washington, Coleman, and Doss it could be interesting. However, there has been no indication of that so far.
That ain't gonna happen. Good luck with Shitchicken having any type of consitency moving the ball against the Blackhirts. My prediction, Blake Corum will have a career low in rushing and won't even get to 50 yards more like 30 or so as the Blackshirts ARE that good and are now the number 1 Rushing D in the country! Everyone saw what kind of problems Michigan had last year against TCU and the 3-3-5. TCU humilited them.
Yup gotta find a few chunk plays in order to lossen up the Defense. Only other hope maybe that HH actually pitches the ball on an option play? Michigan has to see that he never even tries to pitch it.
Ain't gonna happen, wanna put some some money on that? Michigan's O is nowhere good enough to even hang 17 on the Blackshirts
Michigan scored 45 points and had 528 yards of offense in that game. Also turned it over twice inside the 5.
They haven't faced a D anywhere near the caliber of ours period! And yes the Blackshirts are that damn good!
Nebraska will need some chunk plays on offense and make sure the run defense forces Michigan to be one dimensional and the 3-3-5 can be effective in forcing long drives through the air. Nebraska has to make the game a slugfest with the ball having the occasional big pass play.
Need to get win the turnover battle with +2 I think to make a shot to upset. Even on turnovers means little margin otherwise and likely a 7-10 point game at best. Lose turnover margin and the game gets out of hand.
Need to get win the turnover battle with +2 I think to make a shot to upset. Even on turnovers means little margin otherwise and likely a 7-10 point game at best. Lose turnover margin and the game gets out of hand.
Need some ”legal“ pick plays to get receivers in open space for a chance to win. Michigan D-Backs are very fast.
I know it's the prevalent culture of this bbs but try not to be snotty. Every gambler, at some level has understood the odds but in their underbelly believe they have what it takes to beat them. Every organized form of gambling is programmed for profit. Certainly sports betting. Video slots are a profit center not a random money give away. So since this is well known why are rubes spending their free time trying to beat the house?
Even in games where there might be some skill involved you are threatened and accused of cheating(irony) forced to leave, if you win.
Gambling is a joke.
Michigan has not scored over 35 points this year. They like to run the ball and with new first down clock rule, shortens the game.
Plus your defense will give them some issues. 21-10 is what I see.
But, turnovers could change everything for either team.
Plus your defense will give them some issues. 21-10 is what I see.
But, turnovers could change everything for either team.
I think he is being facetious. Michigan's offense beat TCU's defense last year like a pinata.