Okay SPS market geniuses.
- Thread starter mcdawg22
- Start date
I feel like the fed will raise rates soon. Maybe around the time the new stimulus comes into play, if it passes.
It is hard for a joe blow like me to know if we are seeing accelerated inflation or just random shortages driving prices up. Could be both. Either way I hope the fed has it figured out.
I appreciate the effort to poormouth us financing folks, but we all know you pay cash for your million dollar chalets.
Brings up a good question regarding foreclosures.
When they allow them again, should we see a bunch happen in a short period of time?
If yes, what does that do to the market?
Also, if yes, who’s the right banker to talk to who will know abt the foreclosures?
When they allow them again, should we see a bunch happen in a short period of time?
If yes, what does that do to the market?
Also, if yes, who’s the right banker to talk to who will know abt the foreclosures?
Unfortunately- looks like I missed the ridiculously low rates in refinancing.
Most predictions are it will creep up. Still historically low but just not what it was a few months ago.
I thought the Fed has committed to keeping their rates 0% thru like 2023. Yes - I know this can change if necessary.
Most predictions are it will creep up. Still historically low but just not what it was a few months ago.
I thought the Fed has committed to keeping their rates 0% thru like 2023. Yes - I know this can change if necessary.
We still face same challenges coming out of this stimulus super charged boom we're currently in. I think whether it's 1 year, 2 years or 3 years, once we come out of the boom, our aging demographics and a staggering amount of debt will the economy back to it's longer term slower growth trend of 2% GDP per year. That's not awful for an economy this size.
Having said that I don't see how longer term interest rates get out of control. Of course with a mortgage each .25% is a big difference, so you may want to do something sooner than later if you're worried about interest rates going up. They're going up, but we're not going to 5% or anything.
Having said that I don't see how longer term interest rates get out of control. Of course with a mortgage each .25% is a big difference, so you may want to do something sooner than later if you're worried about interest rates going up. They're going up, but we're not going to 5% or anything.
Probably best bet is short sell. Foreclose homes get beat to hell and back from the people leaving.
Some do and some don't. I spent about six months looking at them where I live.
It took that long but the one I found was move in ready enough for me. And yes, I saw some stinkers. Wiring ripped out, AC units gone, you name it.
Back when I did termite work, I did an inspection on a home where they had ripped the deck out of the foundation, and used a hole saw to turn the upstairs into a putting green.
Mortgage rates go off the 10 year T-bills, not the Fed rate it loans to banks. Rates won't skyrocket, but will go up over the next year.
You still have time to save some major money on a home loan.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/us-bonds-treasury-yields-dip-ahead-of-february-jobs-report.html
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/daily.aspx
Wasn’t gdp above 2% growth before Covid? 2 or 3 years in a row?
Just checked. It averaged 2.53 in 2017, 2018 and 2019. That’s a 15% increase on the previous 7 year average of a little less than 2.2%.
Policy was great for 3 years but I guess the tweeting was just more than we could bear.
Just checked. It averaged 2.53 in 2017, 2018 and 2019. That’s a 15% increase on the previous 7 year average of a little less than 2.2%.
Policy was great for 3 years but I guess the tweeting was just more than we could bear.
It will be interesting to see which countries moved up and down the debt-to-GDP rankings when the pandemic is officially over in first world economies. I know that South Korea had very few cases of covid compared to western countries but they still entered a recession for the first time in something like 22 years. There were no economic winners. The U.S. was already in the top 10 in terms of debt-to-GDP but basically everyone is taking on enormous amounts of sovereign debt to stay afloat. Russia's sovereign debt is one of the lowest. The Fed will try to make up the difference by buying more bonds from the treasury but at some point you have to think foreign holders of bonds will start winding down their positions as confidence is lost in the dollar. The only saving grace may be that there isn't any better options. In the mean time I expect crypto currencies to make new all time highs.
Tax cuts gave us above trend growth. We were trending back towards 2% before Covid.
2 to 2.5% growth is likely our longer term trend, but I'd lean closer to 2% with our demographics and rising debt.
2 to 2.5% growth is likely our longer term trend, but I'd lean closer to 2% with our demographics and rising debt.
As someone with only limited knowledge on the subject, I found this post very insightful regarding inflation and presumably upcoming rise in interest rates and how they affect various asset classes.
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/pumping-iron-ae8a54a32ea2
It was written by current US fugitive Arthur Hayes. He's under investigation for offering derivatives to US customers without appropriate KYC/AML or licensing regarding his BitMEX bitcoin derivative platform he founded. Think he's supposedly turning himself in soon to US authorities. Regardless, appears to be very knowledgeable on the subject.
Basically, sounds like we as retail investors should be looking into government bond ETF puts.
We certainly had better policy, but we also were doing a lot of deficit spending. We probably don't have the appetite for the type of policies that would allow consistent >3% growth. Plus we are going to have a demographic drag on growth whereas for most of our history demographics were providing a tailwind. We're going to need big breakthroughs in AI or possibly biomedical breakthroughs to overcome the demographic drag.
I was told by a cigar boy (who has sold over 7000 REOs) that the foreclosure market will be all but obsolete for a while. Since the govt propped up the banks during covid, the banks promised not to do mass forecloses. All that to prevent a PR nightmare. Just imagine the banks getting money from the govt, then kicking people out of their homes. Not a good look.
Interest rates always have to be on the move. It's just not possible to keep them steady for long periods of time. Here is the 10 year treasury rates since 1964. Rates have been stuck in this downward trend since 1981. It's either already bottomed out or the Fed will institute some YCC later this year and drive it down again... But make no mistake in 5-10-15 years it will be significantly higher.
View attachment 19664
View attachment 19664
And the problem is, they can't really go any lower. We're nearing the end of lowering interest rates to artificially stimulate the economy, if we're not there already. And government payouts are ballooning our national debt. We could be in for some rough economic times in the next few years.
Yup.
I think we have a few years of economic boom as all the free money, pent up demand, and current low rate environment comess through the system. I also think the Fed will continue to meddle this year and next. But late 2022-23, the piper will come a calling.
Wasn’t trying to say that the fed funds rate was the most direct thing affecting the mortgage rates.
Was answering 2 things at once
Was answering 2 things at once
We should never give tax cuts to an economy running as well as the one Trump inherited. Incredibly silly policy. If anything, we should raise surpluses in good times so that our footing is more stable if things go bad. Yet, here we are. Another economic collapse and Dems coming in to try to clean things up.
Biden inherited such a mess. But, let’s be honest, we might not could have afford to wait 4 more years for him to inherit it.
Biden inherited such a mess. But, let’s be honest, we might not could have afford to wait 4 more years for him to inherit it.
Yeah well you are a person who thinks the government should take your money do something with it.
I think they should take less of your money and my money and everyone’s money.
Let me decide what I want to do with it.
They are inefficient by the very nature of transactional costs. But they are also way more inefficient Bc they just aren’t very good at their jobs IN MOST CASES.
I think they should take less of your money and my money and everyone’s money.
Let me decide what I want to do with it.
They are inefficient by the very nature of transactional costs. But they are also way more inefficient Bc they just aren’t very good at their jobs IN MOST CASES.
clean what up? Until the shutdown the economy was humming. Just wait until minimum wage is pushed to $15 and the cost of everything is going to double.
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