I posted this in another thread and somebody may have already done a better job at looking at this, but the TLDR version is it's not impossible for us to make it at 9-3, but lots of chips would have to fall our way for it to happen and there are a few things that couldn't happen (like Auburn beating UGA or Bama):
Looking at rankings and schedule, of the 12 NY6 spots, the SEC is going to have at least 2, the ACC is going to have at least 2, the Big 10 is probably going to have 3, the Big 12 and Pac 12 are going to have at least one each, and the Group of 5 will have one. That's 10 of the top 12 accounted for. Notre Dame is pretty much guaranteed to make it, leaving just one final spot. The last spot is likely going to be filled by a second Big 12 team or second Pac 12 team. For us to make it, we need one team in the Big 12 and Pac 12 to separate itself and for the remaining teams to stumble so that the Big 12 and Pac 12 only get one team each in the NY6. A lot of chips would have to fall the right way for that to happen. It might be possible for some upsets to leave the Big 10 with only two teams, which could allow us to still make it if the Pac 12 or Big 12 get two teams in.
Even if those chips fall, an upset by Auburn over UGA or Bama would ensure we are the 4th SEC team and out of consideration for a NY6 bowl. Alternatively, it's possible that say Va Tech could finish strong and fill the final spot with a third ACC team rather than a third SEC team.
My notes: Looking at rankings and schedules, barring some significant upsets (which there will be some but the question is how many):
Teams that are going to be ahead of us:
1. UGA
2. Bama
3. Notre Dame (at worse probably going to finish 10-2 w/ losses to UGA and Miama. Even if they slip up against Wake Forest or Stanford, I think a 9-3 Notre Dame goes before MSU regardless of resume)
4. Clemson - Probably either at worst a 11-2 with second loss coming in ACC championship game or 10-2 without appearing in ACC championship. Either way I think they are ahead of a 9-3 MSU.
5. One of either Oklahoma, Ok St, TCU, or Iowa St. Really need to be West Virginia fans, as they are a team that could make sure only one Big 12 team is ahead of us.
6. Ohio State - 10-2 without a Big 10 championship game or 11-2 with a loss in the Bit 10 championship.
7. PSU - 10-2 or 11-1.
8. Wisconsin - going to make the Big 10 championship game with one or zero losses
9. Miami - Probably 11-1 or 10-2 at worst with losses to Notre Dame and in ACC championship game.
10. Pac 12 Champion - Need to root for chaos so that there isn't a second team ahead of us (right now Stanford, Washington, Washington St., USC, and Arizona can still finish with 2 losses and probably any of them that do will jump us as they're all in the top 25 and will pass us if we lose to Bama)
11.
12. G5 Team
Things we need to happen in the SEC -
- Auburn to lose to UGA and Bama to ensure we are the 3rd highest ranked SEC team.
Things we need to happen in the ACC
- With Miami and Clemson all but guaranteed to finish ahead of us, need to make sure a third ACC team doesn't have an argument, so-
- Need Miami to take care of Va Tech so they don't have an argument that they should be ahead of us. Ideally Ga Tech would beat them to so they are not sitting at 10-2 at the end of the season.
- Need Clemson to take care of NC St. to make sure they don't end up at 10-2.
Things we need to happen in the Big 12 (This with the Pac 12 is the most critical and least likely, as a second Big 12 team would make impossible for us to get to a NY6 bowl and Ok and TCU are both well ahead of us in the rankings)
- We need Oklahoma or TCU to finish strong. TCU probably has the easiest schedule so we need them to go ahead and win out.
- We need West Virginia to pull some upsets. Oklahoma, TCU, Ok St., and Iowa St. would all finish ahead of us if they win out. They play multiple games against each other but West Virginia is the one decent team that plays multiple games against the top Big 12 teams but that won't pass us.
Things we need to happen in the Pac 12 - (Like the Big 12, we need only one PAC 12 team to make it and right now there are lots of teams that would stay ahead of us or pass us if they win out).- Need to root for chaos so that there isn't a second team ahead of us (right now Stanford, Washington, Washington St., USC, and Arizona can still finish with 2 losses and probably any of them that do will jump us as they're all in the top 25 and will pass us if we lose to Bama)
Things we need to happen in the Big 10 -
- There is probably not much that will likely happen here. PSU and OSU and probably Wisconsin are all going to finish ahead of us. If Wisconsin lost to Michigan and either Iowa or Minnesota, that would maybe prevent the Big 10 from getting 3 teams in the top 12, which would open up another potential spot for us. Or maybe the Big 10 would end up with a 10-2 team that doesn't make the Big 10 championship game but still gets picked ahead of a 9-3 state.
Looking at rankings and schedule, of the 12 NY6 spots, the SEC is going to have at least 2, the ACC is going to have at least 2, the Big 10 is probably going to have 3, the Big 12 and Pac 12 are going to have at least one each, and the Group of 5 will have one. That's 10 of the top 12 accounted for. Notre Dame is pretty much guaranteed to make it, leaving just one final spot. The last spot is likely going to be filled by a second Big 12 team or second Pac 12 team. For us to make it, we need one team in the Big 12 and Pac 12 to separate itself and for the remaining teams to stumble so that the Big 12 and Pac 12 only get one team each in the NY6. A lot of chips would have to fall the right way for that to happen. It might be possible for some upsets to leave the Big 10 with only two teams, which could allow us to still make it if the Pac 12 or Big 12 get two teams in.
Even if those chips fall, an upset by Auburn over UGA or Bama would ensure we are the 4th SEC team and out of consideration for a NY6 bowl. Alternatively, it's possible that say Va Tech could finish strong and fill the final spot with a third ACC team rather than a third SEC team.
My notes: Looking at rankings and schedules, barring some significant upsets (which there will be some but the question is how many):
Teams that are going to be ahead of us:
1. UGA
2. Bama
3. Notre Dame (at worse probably going to finish 10-2 w/ losses to UGA and Miama. Even if they slip up against Wake Forest or Stanford, I think a 9-3 Notre Dame goes before MSU regardless of resume)
4. Clemson - Probably either at worst a 11-2 with second loss coming in ACC championship game or 10-2 without appearing in ACC championship. Either way I think they are ahead of a 9-3 MSU.
5. One of either Oklahoma, Ok St, TCU, or Iowa St. Really need to be West Virginia fans, as they are a team that could make sure only one Big 12 team is ahead of us.
6. Ohio State - 10-2 without a Big 10 championship game or 11-2 with a loss in the Bit 10 championship.
7. PSU - 10-2 or 11-1.
8. Wisconsin - going to make the Big 10 championship game with one or zero losses
9. Miami - Probably 11-1 or 10-2 at worst with losses to Notre Dame and in ACC championship game.
10. Pac 12 Champion - Need to root for chaos so that there isn't a second team ahead of us (right now Stanford, Washington, Washington St., USC, and Arizona can still finish with 2 losses and probably any of them that do will jump us as they're all in the top 25 and will pass us if we lose to Bama)
11.
12. G5 Team
Things we need to happen in the SEC -
- Auburn to lose to UGA and Bama to ensure we are the 3rd highest ranked SEC team.
Things we need to happen in the ACC
- With Miami and Clemson all but guaranteed to finish ahead of us, need to make sure a third ACC team doesn't have an argument, so-
- Need Miami to take care of Va Tech so they don't have an argument that they should be ahead of us. Ideally Ga Tech would beat them to so they are not sitting at 10-2 at the end of the season.
- Need Clemson to take care of NC St. to make sure they don't end up at 10-2.
Things we need to happen in the Big 12 (This with the Pac 12 is the most critical and least likely, as a second Big 12 team would make impossible for us to get to a NY6 bowl and Ok and TCU are both well ahead of us in the rankings)
- We need Oklahoma or TCU to finish strong. TCU probably has the easiest schedule so we need them to go ahead and win out.
- We need West Virginia to pull some upsets. Oklahoma, TCU, Ok St., and Iowa St. would all finish ahead of us if they win out. They play multiple games against each other but West Virginia is the one decent team that plays multiple games against the top Big 12 teams but that won't pass us.
Things we need to happen in the Pac 12 - (Like the Big 12, we need only one PAC 12 team to make it and right now there are lots of teams that would stay ahead of us or pass us if they win out).- Need to root for chaos so that there isn't a second team ahead of us (right now Stanford, Washington, Washington St., USC, and Arizona can still finish with 2 losses and probably any of them that do will jump us as they're all in the top 25 and will pass us if we lose to Bama)
Things we need to happen in the Big 10 -
- There is probably not much that will likely happen here. PSU and OSU and probably Wisconsin are all going to finish ahead of us. If Wisconsin lost to Michigan and either Iowa or Minnesota, that would maybe prevent the Big 10 from getting 3 teams in the top 12, which would open up another potential spot for us. Or maybe the Big 10 would end up with a 10-2 team that doesn't make the Big 10 championship game but still gets picked ahead of a 9-3 state.
