Nebraska so far is finishing great. But look at the criteria. Look at who is on the schedule during this 'finish'. The committee will know and look at that. And again, how you finish is not listed as an official criteria. It is a "season long evaluation" of your schedule, specifically looking at the 4 Quads.
No recent posts about Husker hoops, so....
- Thread starter chicolby
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Nebraska so far is finishing great. But look at the criteria. Look at who is on the schedule during this 'finish'. The committee will know and look at that. And again, how you finish is not listed as an official criteria. It is a "season long evaluation" of your schedule, specifically looking at the 4 Quads.
I agree with that. But I would be shocked of tjey wpuld take a team who started hot and struggled to the finish line over a team that started slow and finished hot even with some not so hot teams on the schedule. But who knows with these committees.
When you look at the internals of the RPI, it is a garbage assessment of quality. Once you get outside of the upper level teams, the games of relevance used to build the metric drop off quite a bit. It might be just as legit to draw the RPI 35-55 teams out of a hat in order to complete the field.
Looking at ESPN's list of locks/should be in, the ACC has 5, Big 12 has 4, BEast has 3, B1G has 4, PAC has 2, SEC has 6, AAC has 2 and there are 3 from other conferences (one from the A10 and two from the WCC). Thirty-two teams get autos, so barring conference title game upsets, 20 of 29 teams listed by ESPN are likely in the tourney as at-large. That leaves 16 at-large slots. I would really think at the end of the day the B1G gets one of those remaining spots should NU go 2-1 and win a tourney game, or 3-0 with a tourney loss.
Looking at ESPN's list of locks/should be in, the ACC has 5, Big 12 has 4, BEast has 3, B1G has 4, PAC has 2, SEC has 6, AAC has 2 and there are 3 from other conferences (one from the A10 and two from the WCC). Thirty-two teams get autos, so barring conference title game upsets, 20 of 29 teams listed by ESPN are likely in the tourney as at-large. That leaves 16 at-large slots. I would really think at the end of the day the B1G gets one of those remaining spots should NU go 2-1 and win a tourney game, or 3-0 with a tourney loss.
I won't defend the RPI. I only note it as that is a major factor the committee will look at, like it or not.
If NU wins 2 of remaining 3 and loses its BIG tourney game, I still think they are in. They aren’t your typical bubble team. They are very athletic, fun to watch, have one ot more future NBA’ers and NU has a big following. The committee won’t want to keep them out, and the record will be good enough to justify their inclusion
Here is what is killing Nebraska vs the other supposed bubble teams, from ESPN, and why I don't think anyone can make a blanket statement that "If Nebraska does........., they are in (besides win the BIG tourney).
Below next to the team's name is their current RPI. Nebraska has the worst record against the top 100 RPI, and has the 2nd most wins vs. sub 150 RPI teams. Oh, and we are 1 game above .500 vs the top 150. The last 3 games are Illinois at 186, Indiana at 108, and Penn State at 87 as of today. So can't improve on those numbers much at all. I wish they had them broken down by Quads by they don't.
Assume Nebraska wins out the last 3. Sub 150 goes to 12-0. Top 150 goes to 10-8. Top 100 goes to 4-8. Now beat Michigan, and the top 50 goes to 2-5, and finally get a Quad 1 win. Lose to Ohio State, Purdue, or Sparty, who are all top 20, now the top 25 is 0-6, and the top 50 is 2-6, with one Quad 1 win. Compare those potential final numbers to what some of these other teams already have, and it's not a pretty picture. I'm not trying to be a downer, just pointing out the numbers. Can numbers change? Sure. Can Nebraska hope that by the end of the season a bunch of the teams we have beaten will suddenly move up to top 50 or 25 RPI? NO.
That's why even though it is not a great match up for Nebraska, I hope Nebraska beats Michigan, and gets a shot at Purdue, since the committee has already labeled them a #1 seed. Nebraska can't make up for the numbers very well against a lot of these teams. If we had to put all the eggs in one basket that is not the conference championship game, that could possibly get the committee's attention, beating a team they have already designated as a # 1 (assuming Purdue doesn't do anything to lose that spot) seed might be what does it.
Nebraska:
RPI TOP 25 0-5
RPI TOP 50 1-5
RPI TOP 100 3-8
RPI TOP 150 9-8
RPI SUB 150 11-0
Syracuse: 36
RPI TOP 25 0-3
RPI TOP 50 2-5
RPI TOP 100 7-6
RPI TOP 150 11-8
RPI SUB 150 6-0
Arkansas:
RPI TOP 25 2-3
RPI TOP 50 4-4
RPI TOP 100 7-7
RPI TOP 150 10-7
RPI SUB 150 7-1
St. Bonn: 44
RPI TOP 25 0-1
RPI TOP 50 3-2
RPI TOP 100 5-2
RPI TOP 150 7-4
RPI SUB 150 12-2
USC:
RPI TOP 25 0-4
RPI TOP 50 2-5
RPI TOP 100 7-8
RPI TOP 150 9-8
RPI SUB 150 8-1
Washington: 42
RPI TOP 25 3-0
RPI TOP 50 4-2
RPI TOP 100 7-7
RPI TOP 150 8-7
RPI SUB 150 9-1
Providence: 41
RPI TOP 25 2-4
RPI TOP 50 4-5
RPI TOP 100 9-6
RPI TOP 150 11-7
RPI SUB 150 5-2
Michigan: 37
RPI TOP 25 1-4
RPI TOP 50 1-4
RPI TOP 100 4-6
RPI TOP 150 10-7
RPI SUB 150 9-0
Kansas State: 63
RPI TOP 25 1-5
RPI TOP 50 2-7
RPI TOP 100 7-8
RPI TOP 150 9-8
RPI SUB 150 8-0
Virginia Tech: 58
RPI TOP 25 2-2
RPI TOP 50 3-6
RPI TOP 100 6-6
RPI TOP 150 9-7
RPI SUB 150 9-0
NC State: 69
RPI TOP 25 4-4
RPI TOP 50 4-5
RPI TOP 100 6-8
RPI TOP 150 7-8
RPI SUB 150 9-1
UCLA 52
RPI TOP 25 2-3
RPI TOP 50 4-4
RPI TOP 100 7-7
RPI TOP 150 10-7
RPI SUB 150 7-1
Below next to the team's name is their current RPI. Nebraska has the worst record against the top 100 RPI, and has the 2nd most wins vs. sub 150 RPI teams. Oh, and we are 1 game above .500 vs the top 150. The last 3 games are Illinois at 186, Indiana at 108, and Penn State at 87 as of today. So can't improve on those numbers much at all. I wish they had them broken down by Quads by they don't.
Assume Nebraska wins out the last 3. Sub 150 goes to 12-0. Top 150 goes to 10-8. Top 100 goes to 4-8. Now beat Michigan, and the top 50 goes to 2-5, and finally get a Quad 1 win. Lose to Ohio State, Purdue, or Sparty, who are all top 20, now the top 25 is 0-6, and the top 50 is 2-6, with one Quad 1 win. Compare those potential final numbers to what some of these other teams already have, and it's not a pretty picture. I'm not trying to be a downer, just pointing out the numbers. Can numbers change? Sure. Can Nebraska hope that by the end of the season a bunch of the teams we have beaten will suddenly move up to top 50 or 25 RPI? NO.
That's why even though it is not a great match up for Nebraska, I hope Nebraska beats Michigan, and gets a shot at Purdue, since the committee has already labeled them a #1 seed. Nebraska can't make up for the numbers very well against a lot of these teams. If we had to put all the eggs in one basket that is not the conference championship game, that could possibly get the committee's attention, beating a team they have already designated as a # 1 (assuming Purdue doesn't do anything to lose that spot) seed might be what does it.
Nebraska:
RPI TOP 25 0-5
RPI TOP 50 1-5
RPI TOP 100 3-8
RPI TOP 150 9-8
RPI SUB 150 11-0
Syracuse: 36
RPI TOP 25 0-3
RPI TOP 50 2-5
RPI TOP 100 7-6
RPI TOP 150 11-8
RPI SUB 150 6-0
Arkansas:
RPI TOP 25 2-3
RPI TOP 50 4-4
RPI TOP 100 7-7
RPI TOP 150 10-7
RPI SUB 150 7-1
St. Bonn: 44
RPI TOP 25 0-1
RPI TOP 50 3-2
RPI TOP 100 5-2
RPI TOP 150 7-4
RPI SUB 150 12-2
USC:
RPI TOP 25 0-4
RPI TOP 50 2-5
RPI TOP 100 7-8
RPI TOP 150 9-8
RPI SUB 150 8-1
Washington: 42
RPI TOP 25 3-0
RPI TOP 50 4-2
RPI TOP 100 7-7
RPI TOP 150 8-7
RPI SUB 150 9-1
Providence: 41
RPI TOP 25 2-4
RPI TOP 50 4-5
RPI TOP 100 9-6
RPI TOP 150 11-7
RPI SUB 150 5-2
Michigan: 37
RPI TOP 25 1-4
RPI TOP 50 1-4
RPI TOP 100 4-6
RPI TOP 150 10-7
RPI SUB 150 9-0
Kansas State: 63
RPI TOP 25 1-5
RPI TOP 50 2-7
RPI TOP 100 7-8
RPI TOP 150 9-8
RPI SUB 150 8-0
Virginia Tech: 58
RPI TOP 25 2-2
RPI TOP 50 3-6
RPI TOP 100 6-6
RPI TOP 150 9-7
RPI SUB 150 9-0
NC State: 69
RPI TOP 25 4-4
RPI TOP 50 4-5
RPI TOP 100 6-8
RPI TOP 150 7-8
RPI SUB 150 9-1
UCLA 52
RPI TOP 25 2-3
RPI TOP 50 4-4
RPI TOP 100 7-7
RPI TOP 150 10-7
RPI SUB 150 7-1
I like the Huskers' chances of making the NCAA field, but I'm not sure a 2-2 finish would get it done. If they drop one of the three remaining games, they probably need a win in the conference tournament. That's just a wild guess of course, but some combination of three more wins would make me a lot more confident. Fortunately, I think they can meet or exceed that number.
having watched illy their last two gsmes, both at home, we shouldn't lose that one. indy and psu worry me more than that one.