Listening to the pod today got me thinking. They talked about 30% inflation year to year. So when we say “I’d keep x from RUs roster if he’d take a pay cut or the same”, and he made $400k in 2025-26, does that mean you’d keep him now at $350k or at $520k or less now due to the coming inflation?
NIL inflation
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Since we don’t know the market / relative numbers, it’s impossible to think of it this way. Even Riche and company on the podcast are doing it and it just doesn’t make sense. You can’t say, “I’d cap Tariq at X” without knowing who anything above X can get you in place of him, for example.
The PG talk is especially questionable IMO because I don’t actually think there’s a realistic sum of money we could dedicate to lure a proven 6-4+ PG who scores, distributes and plays defense to come to Rutgers. At best, I think we’re going to get a JY type and dearly over pay for what JY contributed in his first year at RU (and that was after sitting out a year and adjusting to our system). He’s not “tall” and he came in with only moderate high major experience. I think even a player like that who shows explosive flashes (though wild) as a frosh is only going to be enticed to consider Rutgers at a massive premium. Its not I’mpossible that 2019-20 JY would cost us about the same as carrying both Tariq and J Mike on the roster. In my opinion, we can ill afford to make a trade like that - breaking in an inexperienced, wild JY and starting from ground zero on offense. And that’s IF - this type of kid even chooses to accept our hypothetical 1.2M vs taking 900K or 1M from a more stable program.
The only near certainly IMO is that offense will cost a lot more that defense to add. Besides the center, I think the plan should be to maintain the rest of our offense (that’s basically Buchanan, TF and Lino) and add guys to significantly upgrade the D. Better value likely that way.
I think of it as relative to LY for current guys. Like Grant. Supposedly made just under 500k of our team total. I'd take him back at the same # if our budget is now $9-10M. Only Francis, DB earned themselves decent raises.
My question was though, if Rob Sullivan truly believes 500k last year is like 600k in 26-27 it’s not really a raise. Would you offer him the 500 or 600? I know none of us really know it’s all just speculation and fun to discuss (or stressful lol)
He’s not worth more than maybe an 100K premium over the frosh rate (not sure what that is but it isn’t 400K which means he’s not worth his current cost to us). His defense just isn’t good enough at that position and his offense is easily replaceable as his efficiency is very poor for a forward.
He’s not worth 500k or 600k to us. I’ll take Max Frasier - Central CT state for those same dollars or less.
lol I hear you, I’m just trying to get an opinion, when they say “if he’d stay for the same money”does that count any inflation?
I think it's based on the individual. There are guys like Grant I would not give more to, but happy to have him back as an 8th 9th man at the same price. I'd give guys like a Davis or a Mark an inflation bump.
Interesting. Max Frasier played 10 minutes a game at CCSU his second year of college averaging 3 and 2 and took a decent jump his third year, but there is no chance the guy you already have could do the same thing?
Max Frazier had a great year and is an impressive athlete, but I don’t think 6-9 is tall enough to play the 5 in the B1G.
His 6.9% block rate is good enough but that was in the horrible NEC, don’t really think that would translate to HM ball. Plus, there’s a chance Sellers gets a new job this cycle and wants to bring Frazier with him.
His 6.9% block rate is good enough but that was in the horrible NEC, don’t really think that would translate to HM ball. Plus, there’s a chance Sellers gets a new job this cycle and wants to bring Frazier with him.
Yes - of course there’s a “chance”. The point I was making is - Max Frasier types are not going to cost 500K. They played for low majors and will be priced based on the doubts associated with making a big jump in talent level. He probably didn’t even get 50K this year. If I had to guess, I’d say kids like him will run about 150K or so above the frosh high major rate. Maybe 350k-ish. That’s the problem with Grant. The argument to keep him for 500K would have to be that he has a high floor but I don’t really think you could make that comparative case. The things Grant provided in his 24 minutes are easily replacable. I’m not worried about replacing 3 point threat of a 28% career 3 point shooter. And it’s not really possible to bring in a downgrade on D - he really hurt us. Also not too worried about anyone coming in and getting materially less than his 4 rpg.
Oh I don’t actually want him - I just pulled up a 6-9 kid who outplayed Grant in one of our games at random as an example. My point is he’s easily replaceable for 500k.
See, I think he would get $500K from someone off a double digit scoring season. I still think you underestimate what these kids get. but I of course could be wrong.
Yes, Grant is currently easily replaceable, but at 5% of your roster budget for a program/continuity guy that at probably trends to a 9 and 5 guy next year in 20ish minutes. His D hurts less off the bench and on a team with better defenders around him. With starter $ we need new talent, a few of our guys are OK as bench pieces. Grant, as poor as he's been rebounding has an identical rebounding % to Yeboah as a soph and is barely below Yeboah as a senior at RU.
I don’t think we should be spending 500K on bench players. Double digit scorers from low majors who made basically nothing this year are not getting 500K. It’s a huge question mark to make the jump a level on paper. I just don’t think Grant’s paper numbers accurately depict his contributions so I’m willing to take a risk on a low major to replace him for less and possibly provide more. 350-400K budget - priced similarly to where Tariq probably was this past year.
Yes, but that was last year, what of the supposed 30% inflation rate and higher on starters? 2025 #'s aren't 2026 numbers if the talk is to be believed. Also, you have to have bench players that can play and contribute. Half the fanbase wants Tariq in a bench role, he's $1M+
It doesn’t matter if he’s “bench”. 28 mpg for him. 22 for Buchanan. I’d pencil something like that in for Lino too if he stays. I want a 30 mpg forward and a 28 mpg center.
As far as I’m concerned - that leave only 70 minutes of PT to allocate to everyone else. I don’t think Grant taking those minutes helps us much over giving them to Dortch. How’s that? Grant is way worse at D and very overrated in the offense he provides. I’ll save some money to lose his 28% 3 point shooting and take my chances in Bryce making the same situational interior baskets if given more minutes at the 4. Hopefully we can also take a chance on a mid-major who might be able to take 20 of those minutes and then we have Powers or Zrno plus the frosh filling out the remaining utility minutes. I don’t give a crap who “starts”.
You must care who "starts" because you just said you have a limit on how much you'd pay a bench player. Change it to a minutes played guideline, OK. Anyone getting 20 a night is going to run $500K on a good team, most likely.
Let’s simply reterm them:
Core starter = +25 mpg
Finge starter = more than half the game (less than 25 mpg)
Bench contributor = less than half the game but some quality minutes (15-20 mpg)
Deep bench = only role player / garbage time minutes
Personally, I only want us to have 3 core starter minute guys (don’t care if they actually start) - TF and 2 new front court players.
Ideally - we’d end up with 3 core starter - (TF and 2 portal minute guys), 3 fringe (Buchanan, Lino and one more from portal), and 2-3 main bench contributors which could end up being Powers, Zrno, Dortch, 2 frosh, etc. based on whoever stays and any end of cycle portal pick ups. None of the potential “bench contributor” bucket guys should be getting 500K.
I’m hoping we pour resources into 2 new additions that leave no doubt and then one Buchanan type A-10 addition.
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I pretty much agree, but not sure Dortch can be the main back up 5 so one of the portal picks has to be a 4-5 swing guy, or two of them.
Yes - assuming no Ogbole, I’m hoping the 4 can swing to the 5.
im hoping the fringe addition is a Caleb type guy. Bring on the ugly metrics to keep down price.