Free throws have been an issue for him all year, but he did have 16 points last night, hit a big 3 in the first half and was willing to go up against Maryland's leapers on the front line. He's getting better. Can he take a big step forward like Martinelli did his junior year? We shall see.
Next Year's Here
- Thread starter SouthportCat
- Start date
Martinelli started taking big and obvious leaps forward his sophomore year, it didn't come out of nowhere at ALL his junior year. I mean, him becoming THIS good was a surprise, but he was already good by the end of his sophomore year and rapidly getting better.
I'm not counting on Gelo being a 20ppg scorer, but if he can get his 3-point stroke consistent, it could happen because defenders have to respect his driving ability. And yes, I was at the Depaul game in December three years ago where Martinelli came off the bench and saved the day against a very bad Blue Demon team (he earned game MVP honors that day). Martinelli was among lots of scoring options that year whereas Gelo hasn't had that.
I don’t think Gelo is anywhere near where Nick was at the same time. That comparison is unfair. Gelo can improve a be a very good starter if he gains confidence in his shots and is consistently aggressive.
As I said, any guard who comes out of nowhere and becomes a good or very goodie shooter is inherently useful even if they have zero other offensive skills. Gelo or anybody else could randomly and suddenly achieve that. Not really predictable, though.
Short of that, not seeing progress elsewhere. If he improves a lot he can be a rotation player on a good team.
But Gelo can do things that Nick can't. Gelo is already a better defender. He is more athletic and has the potential to be a good slasher and rebounder - much more so than Nick. But no one is going to match Nick's ability to creatively score in the paint and so that is not a fair expectation to put on Gelo. He won't be a 24 point a game scorer like Nick is, but I also wouldn't be surprised if breaks out somewhat next year. He just needs to get more confident and consistent on his three point shot. Every once in a while, it looks really nice and then other times it looks like a different guy shooting. But if he can start knocking down 35%+ from three, then his raw athleticism makes him a problem. With improved defense to match.
I don’t want to be tearing down Gelo, but it’s basketball not the decathlon. Gelo is developing but I think potential gets Coaches fired. He has become a decent defender this year, but he’s not lock down like Audige. He is more athletic, and can throw down a highlight dunk better than Nick. However, I don’t even think he is a better rebounder than Nick. He may get there, he should, because being a lead scorer is not going to be his calling card.
Most importantly, what Nick has in spades over Gelo right now is the intangibles. Basketball IQ, finding a way to make himself available for the pass, taking defenders with him, and especially that competitor edge ( Nick outwardly looks pissed with NU taking beatings) that frankly, I don’t see on too many players on this years team demonstrate. I agree with your premise that Gelo can break out next year to be one of NU’s primary contributors but there is a very long way to go to get close to Nick‘s impact. Let’s hope he he pans out the way you describe.
We can disagree on the level of progression Gelo has made, but he went for 16-5-3 with 2 blocks and, as you point out, zero turnovers. Your statement implies he isn't even a useful player or a good rotation player, which I would argue are both patently false. Trying to tell me someone was detrimental to the team when they were arguably the best all-around player on the floor makes no sense to me at all.
He has doubled his minutes, rebounding, and scoring output vs. his freshman year while reducing his turnovers substantially. As another posted pointed out, his advanced stats all point upwards. How have you "not seen progress elsewhere?" What are the metrics you would use to define progress?
His three point and free throw shooting have not been good, concur, and it is a weakness that must be corrected or he will forever be a "what if" talent.
I’m not arguing Gelo is anywhere near Nick Martinelli’s tier or even that he’s starter caliber right now. But in terms of year-to-year growth, he’s been the most improved player on the roster.
Defensively, the jump is real. He went from being someone you had to scheme around to someone you can trust within the system. He’s no longer a target in space. He’s navigating actions cleaner, he’s more disciplined at the point of attack, and the added strength shows up when he absorbs contact instead of getting dislodged. He’s not a lockdown guy yet, but he has the lateral pop to recover and the verticality to contest. For a guard, he gives you legitimate weak-side rim protection and secondary shot blocking, which matters in the Big Ten where teams live in the paint. He’s a plus defender but not quite an impact one yet.
The work in the weight room has translated offensively too. He’s finishing through contact instead of avoiding it, and the explosiveness is functional, not just aesthetic. The highlight dunks are a byproduct of improved core strength and balance, not just hops. His off-ball movement has taken a step as well. He’s cutting with timing, lifting out of the corners with purpose, and relocating after paint touches instead of spectating. It’s not Ty Berry-level gravity or instinct yet, but it’s trending in that direction.
The swing skill is the three. If he becomes a consistent catch-and-shoot threat, it forces hard closeouts, which opens up his straight-line drives and short-roll playmaking. That’s what turns him from a useful rotation piece into a legitimate Big Ten starter.
Right now, he profiles as a high-upside role player who understands his lane. If the shot stabilizes, the rest of the game scales quickly.
Defensively, the jump is real. He went from being someone you had to scheme around to someone you can trust within the system. He’s no longer a target in space. He’s navigating actions cleaner, he’s more disciplined at the point of attack, and the added strength shows up when he absorbs contact instead of getting dislodged. He’s not a lockdown guy yet, but he has the lateral pop to recover and the verticality to contest. For a guard, he gives you legitimate weak-side rim protection and secondary shot blocking, which matters in the Big Ten where teams live in the paint. He’s a plus defender but not quite an impact one yet.
The work in the weight room has translated offensively too. He’s finishing through contact instead of avoiding it, and the explosiveness is functional, not just aesthetic. The highlight dunks are a byproduct of improved core strength and balance, not just hops. His off-ball movement has taken a step as well. He’s cutting with timing, lifting out of the corners with purpose, and relocating after paint touches instead of spectating. It’s not Ty Berry-level gravity or instinct yet, but it’s trending in that direction.
The swing skill is the three. If he becomes a consistent catch-and-shoot threat, it forces hard closeouts, which opens up his straight-line drives and short-roll playmaking. That’s what turns him from a useful rotation piece into a legitimate Big Ten starter.
Right now, he profiles as a high-upside role player who understands his lane. If the shot stabilizes, the rest of the game scales quickly.
Here's his kenpom page:
| '25 (19 B1G Games) | '26 (16 B1G Games, with 4 to go) | |
| %Min | 28.3 | 52.2 |
| ORtg | 94.9 | 112.1 |
| %Shots | 18.3 | 18.0 |
| eFG% | 41.9 | 53.5 |
| OReb% | 8.0 | 4.9 |
| DReb% | 11.4 | 14.6 |
| AstRate | 6.4 | 11.0 |
| TORate | 17.1 | 7.9 (10th in B1G) |
| Blk% | 3.7 | 4.2 (16th in B1G) |
| FC/40 | 5.2 | 3.0 |
| FT | 13/18 (72.2%) | 13/21 (61.9%) |
| 2FG | 14/34 (41.2%) | 36/63 (57.1%) |
| 3FG | 8/25 (28.6%) | 7/24 (29.2%) |
So - he's playing almost 2x as many minutes, and has increased his offensive efficiency (while shot quantity has remained steady). He's also improved his assist rate by almost double, and even greater improved protecting the ball. Finally, he's increased his blocking and stealing, while cutting down on the fouls. While the FTs have regressed, and the 3FG hasn't improved, he is killing 2FGs because he's finishing "at the rim" (Per Torvik that extracts that, he's 57/85, 67.1% in '26 vs 18/32, 55.6% in '25. His other non "at the rim" 2FG has been about level- 5/16, 31.3% in '26 vs 7/21, 33.3% in '25).
By the numbers and across a significant sample of B1G games, Gelo is better on both ends. Full stop. My opinion is that from frosh to soph, that's good progress. Others' may want more, that's on you.
However, Gelo has done this mainly by being a high energy/slasher - which is "role player." Perhaps if he was the type who could create his own at all 3 levels (a la Keaton Wagler), there might be more excitement about his growth. Given that the '26 edition of the Cats has desperately needed more guys who are better than "role players," I can certainly understand why enthusiasm may be more muted.
To your point, TAFH, if he can get that 3FG up to 35% - then he becomes a true 3 and D guy - and that's a welcome part of any future 'Cats team that has notions of getting back to relevant games in March. I lean optimistic in projecting he could develop that (a 72% FT in B1G '25 suggests the shooting form is there), and in Collins last postgame presser - as he was speaking about Gelo's performance, he noted that "the corner 3 is a good shot for him." So, he sees him in practice working on that, and if he sees him hitting it there, then he's just gotta keep that conviction in taking that shot in games.
With regards to improving on 3FG shooting - bear in mind that Jordan Clayton, the guy this whole board wanted to punt into the sun, is at 18/44 from 3FG in B1G games this year - 40.9% and puts him at 10th in B1G (per kenpom, as he has enough attempts to qualify on his league leaders). Let's say Clayton goes 0/3 in the each final 4 games of the reg season, which would put him at 18/56 - that would still land him at 32.1%, which is way better than last year's 22.2% (4/18) in B1G
Gelo has clearly improved since last year. His improvement passes the eye test and, as you prove here, it passes the actual stats test. He's not going to step up next year and be the replacement for Nick, but then nobody can replace Nick. Nick's a 1 of 1. But Gelo could certainly be part of a group of players that replaces Nick in the aggregate (yes, I watched MoneyBall).
As for Clayton... if you take away his last three games, he was only shooting 31% from 3. Heck... just take away his 6 for 8 performance last night and he is at 33%. These are still better numbers than last year and better than many guys on our team this year. But... the point is that the Jordan Clayton of these last few games is not the same one that people wanted to punt into the sun earlier this year. He is playing more confidently now and getting results. Earlier in the year (and for most of his career), he was afraid to shoot and then missed pretty much everything when he did. That is starting to change and good for him! I hope he takes this performance from last night to heart and becomes more aggressive. What was interesting about his shots last night is that he had a really quick release on his threes. He was open on most of them, but he could probably make some even with tighter coverage as he was catching and releasing pretty quickly.
I have a youtube playlist of Moneyball movie scenes, just cause there's so many terrific exchanges.
I align with you that this isn't the same Jordan Clayton, but I also cite that because we don't get to this version of Jordan Clayton without giving up on him (like most of the board did). Of course, he isn't done yet, I noted that there may be some statistical regression in the final four games - but he's yet another reminder that development isn't linear.
14-20 from 3 since UCLA
You can’t subtract a 6 for 7 performance without also subtracting an 0-7 run.
In that game. Obviously he isn’t better than Martinelli. But you’re cherry picking a single line while remaining very loudly silent on the multiple posts that have refuted your take on Gelo with statistical support. I am curious for your take on his kenpom or torvik improvement.
I was only subtracting the 6 for (technically) 8 performance to make the point that he has been shooting noticeably better as of late.
He his simply wasn’t. Maybe I don’t at all see what you people do, but I was rolling my eyes at him constantly all night.
Billy Beane's team also had guys named Tejada, Hudson, Mulder, Chavez and Zito. I like the Moneyball concept but what we need is multiple Martinellis.