I can't see Giles being as good as he was before two ACL's.
As for comparisons to Duke, let's start with this past season:
UK and Duke were both 4 seeds. UK won the game on a neutral court.
Next, let's talk about what each team loses:
UK loses Poythress to graduation. Duke loses Plumlee to graduation.
UK loses Murray to the lottery. Duke loses Ingram to the lottery.
Also, it is assumed Labissiere leaves.
Then, let's talk about who each has coming back:
The previous conversation assumes Ulis returns for UK and Allen returns for Duke. If so, both teams retain their All-American.
Everyone else is expected back, as of now.
Finally, let's talk about what each team will have coming in:
UK adds Fox and Monk- both top 5 players.
Duke adds Tatum and Giles- both top 5 players. Giles is coming off injury, however.
UK adds Adebayo- a top 10 player.
Duke adds Jackson- a top 15 player.
UK adds Gabriel and Killeya-Jones- both top 25 players.
This scenario assumes UK adds Bolden- another top 25 recruit.
In this scenario, it looks to me like UK will have three more impact players coming in than Duke.
Even with losing slightly more (Labissiere) than Duke, we gain slightly more in that scenario. On paper, we would have the better team, IMHO.
Personally, bringing back Ulis would be enough for me to put us above Duke, even if they get Bolden. We still have one more impact recruit coming in than Duke and the return of Ulis outweighs the return of Allen. Plus, Cal probably signs another top prospect to replace Bolden.
With Ulis, we are the favorite, IMHO. He will be the clear front runner for NPOY.
But, I doubt Ulis comes back, so the argument is likely irrelevant.