We need one of three to stay alive for a NCAA bid
It actually doesn't come down to wins or losses.....RU played terrible looking basketball in the 1st 6 games, because possession by possession, RU was erratic on both ends of the court or making silly plays, awful turnovers and not making basic plays.
RU just needs to play clean, crisp basketball and not have 13 to 14 turnovers and avoid teams getting cheap baskets.....as much as people don't want to believe it, RU would have probably landed in the same spots on the kenpom, Bart types, because they didn't play well, win or lose......you also factor in Baker not playing and that helps the cause on a 10 pt win vs Clemson.
RU didn't shoot lights out from 3 or from the FT line. RU took care of the ball and that can frustrate opponents that need easy baskets to survive.
Illinois actually (to me) looks much better and more balanced when Curbelo is NOT playing.....Curbelo was a turnover machine vs Marquette, and completely ignored some open teammates....he missed their last game with an illness or whatever. If he plays and dominates the ball again, RU has a chance to steal one. Plummer, the Utah transfer will have to guard Harper or Caleb/Jones and Trent Frazier is the one X Factor....Baker or Jalen Miller may have to play and matchup.
If I ranked the win likelihood, it has nothing to do with opponents, but who do you play before or after....RU draws Seton Hall after #1 Purdue plays at the RAC.....I know fans don't believe in letdown, but it is difficult to play well, 3 or 4 games in a row, unless you have tremendous depth and talent, 1 through 9 or 10.....Seton Hall hosts Texas before playing RU, which will be another big time matchup next week.
I would tank the win likelihood as Purdue, Illinois and then Seton Hall. RU plays well in a huge underdog role and has nothing to lose hosting #1.....no one expects you to win and you have the crowd roaring.....you could split hairs between Illinois or SHu as 2 or 3.....
If you can get Baker back for 14 to 16 minutes Friday and the 20 to 24 vs Purdue, RU has a chance to get 2 in a row.....I really am not sure Illinois wants to feed Cockburn the ball every possession.....and a bunch of dunks or 2 pointers, isn't going to kill you.....Purdue from 3 and hitting shots can AND they have the post play on offense with Edey and Williams....
I still believe the RAC is the biggest X factor of the next 3 games......