New Bracketology out

[Seinfeld]

7 seed against Clemson in the West regional. I guess you could look at this a couple ways. Going out west would be tough, especially thinking about how we performed against ASU earlier this season. However, a 7 seed seems to indicate that were still pretty solidly in the tournament as long as we don’t start piling up bad losses.

Whatever the case, tonight is one that we really need to win or else we will start moving towards the bubble very quickly

 

[olblue]

7 seed against Clemson in the West regional. I guess you could look at this a couple ways. Going out west would be tough, especially thinking about how we performed against ASU earlier this season. However, a 7 seed seems to indicate that were still pretty solidly in the tournament as long as we don’t start piling up bad losses.

Whatever the case, tonight is one that we really need to win or else we will start moving towards the bubble very quickly

While the schedule looks favorable to get to that magic number of nine wins, you touched on the risk. A loss to Mizzou, A&M or SC coupled with one to Bama or Arkansas could be the nail in the coffin.

 

[maroonmania]

Right now the key is just getting in. I really don't care where we play or even what the seed is at the moment.

 

[tbaydog]

with this team and coach, could less if we get in and be one and done.........

 

[Drebin]

Right now the key is just getting in. I really don't care where we play or even what the seed is at the moment.

We shouldn't be in this position. Take care of business with a couple of these really ugly losses we have on our resume, and we are safely in (maybe as high as 3 or 4).

7/8 seed is perilously close to the bubble and a situation we shouldn't be in. It also means we have no margin for error going forward.

 

[615 Guy]

We beat Clemson handily earlier this year but I doubt the seeding actually pans out that way. I think we make it this year but watch it be as an 8 seed which although is better than not making the tournament probably means a short trip. I'll be watching regardless.

 

[ShrubDog]

We shouldn't be in this position. Take care of business with a couple of these really ugly losses we have on our resume, and we are safely in (maybe as high as 3 or 4).

7/8 seed is perilously close to the bubble and a situation we shouldn't be in. It also means we have no margin for error going forward.

Well said. The one loss that really hurts is the OM at home.

 

[olblue]

We shouldn't be in this position. Take care of business with a couple of these really ugly losses we have on our resume, and we are safely in (maybe as high as 3 or 4).

7/8 seed is perilously close to the bubble and a situation we shouldn't be in. It also means we have no margin for error going forward.

The sunshine pumpers will shrug off the South Carolina loss as "life in the SEC" but it is a bad loss, period. And a win over LSU could have been a really good win. Those are the two that stand out to me.

 

[57stratdawg]

Agreed. The goal is an invitation.

 

[Go Budaw]

The sunshine pumpers will shrug off the South Carolina loss as "life in the SEC" but it is a bad loss, period. And a win over LSU could have been a really good win. Those are the two that stand out to me.

The South Carolina loss was bad, but not nearly as bad as initially feared. They have morphed into a respectable squad. The OM loss at home was not great either, but we made up for it with the win on the road in Oxford, so those two games are basically a wash. The net result of that is that the South Carolina game was the only one all season where we really “should” have won. We have held serve throughout the entire rest of the schedule. The LSU and UK game (x2) were losses to teams that have way more talent, period. The Bama loss was a relatively even talent matchup on the road. I don’t think we were favored in any of them.

 

[stateu1]

The South Carolina loss was bad, but not nearly as bad as initially feared. They have morphed into a respectable squad. The OM loss at home was not great either, but we made up for it with the win on the road in Oxford, so those two games are basically a wash. The net result of that is that the South Carolina game was the only one all season where we really “should” have won. We have held serve throughout the entire rest of the schedule. The LSU and UK game (x2) were losses to teams that have way more talent, period. The Bama loss was a relatively even talent matchup on the road. I don’t think we were favored in any of them.

I think we were favored over Bama and LSU.

 

[maroonmania]

The sunshine pumpers will shrug off the South Carolina loss as "life in the SEC" but it is a bad loss, period. And a win over LSU could have been a really good win. Those are the two that stand out to me.

Losing to OM at home was even worse to me than SC on the road. Only decent win we have in the league is beating Auburn at home. Not beating LSU when we had that game was a killer along with several other close losses that could have been marquee wins.

 

[Go Budaw]

I think we were favored over Bama and LSU.

I can’t say for sure. I can say for sure that LSU and Kentucky have better players than we do, and that Bama is a potential tourney team that we were playing on the road. None of those losses were surprising or unexpected.

Generally speaking, it’s pretty damn rare for a team to go from not even making the tournament at all for a decade, to cruising to a 3 or 4 seed with mostly the same players from the previous season. Gotta crawl before you can walk. This was a 5-8 seed type team all along. Where we fall on that spectrum depends on how we do in these swing games against good teams. Right now we are 2-4 (W’s against Auburn at home and OM on the road, Losses to UK at home, LSU at home, OM at home, Bama on the road). The thing is that all of those games went down to the wire, except our win over Auburn where we kicked their *** pretty good. We’ll see if we can improve that a little more as the season goes on...need to get a few more breaks from officials and also make better decisions with the ball in these late game possessions (and make 17ing free throws). Tonight is a game we need to get, no question.

 

[msstate7]

We beat Clemson handily earlier this year but I doubt the seeding actually pans out that way. I think we make it this year but watch it be as an 8 seed which although is better than not making the tournament probably means a short trip. I'll be watching regardless.

They were missing their best player, pretty sure

 

[$altyDawg]

We were indeed favored over Bama and LSU, and are favored over Bama again tonight.

 

[JungRebel]

You guys did beat a projected 8 seed on the road. I'd say that's pretty good.

 

[klong-dog]

Bama was -2 in Tuscaloosa a couple weeks ago.

 

[klong-dog]

Bama was -2 in Tuscaloosa a couple weeks ago.

In our game I meant.

 

[msstate7]

Delete

 

[Seinfeld]

I think some are blurring the lines between games that we shoulda/coulda won and genuinely bad losses. Don't get me wrong, I'm as disappointed about the season so far as anyone for reasons that have already been discussed ad nauseam in other threads, but it doesn't seem that any objective ranking out there is severely penalizing us for any of our Ls.

NCAA Net Ranking - 29
Nolan RPI - 27 with zero Q3 or Q4 losses
Lunardi Bracketology - 7 seed

We for sure could have put ourselves in a better position, but we've done little to destroy tournament hopes up to this point

 

[johnson86-1]

I think some are blurring the lines between games that we shoulda/coulda won and genuinely bad losses. Don't get me wrong, I'm as disappointed about the season so far as anyone for reasons that have already been discussed ad nauseam in other threads, but it doesn't seem that any objective ranking out there is severely penalizing us for any of our Ls.

NCAA Net Ranking - 29
Nolan RPI - 27 with zero Q3 or Q4 losses
Lunardi Bracketology - 7 seed

We for sure could have put ourselves in a better position, but we've done little to destroy tournament hopes up to this point

The only problem with this team is that at least in league play, they haven't won their fair share of close games. We showed up against Auburn, and took care of OM on the road, but lost a game to LSU at home when we were in position to win it, lost to bama on the road, lost to OM at home, and lost to USCe on the road, couldn't complete the comeback against UK (although that's not really one that hurts). None of those were particularly bad losses, but we should have pulled in at least one and probably two of those.

Could be that our margin of error is thin and we just started with some bad luck and we're about to have some breaks. It could be that we are just missing something that is going to prevent us from closing out games. I think it's probably a little of both. It doesn't look like we're quite right to me. I don't think we really maximize Peters and Nick when they are on the floor together (and I don't think that's really anybody's fault; they're just not complementary players). Holman obviously has something going on.

That said, we're nowhere near a place that justifies some of the teeth gnashing that has gone on here. We're making incremental progress and are just a hair from being good. Plus we have two great building blocks moving forward in Woodard and Perry, and will probably see Nick really emerge if he gets to run the show himself.

 

[maroonmania]

The only problem with this team is that at least in league play, they haven't won their fair share of close games. We showed up against Auburn, and took care of OM on the road, but lost a game to LSU at home when we were in position to win it, lost to bama on the road, lost to OM at home, and lost to USCe on the road, couldn't complete the comeback against UK (although that's not really one that hurts). None of those were particularly bad losses, but we should have pulled in at least one and probably two of those.

Could be that our margin of error is thin and we just started with some bad luck and we're about to have some breaks. It could be that we are just missing something that is going to prevent us from closing out games. I think it's probably a little of both. It doesn't look like we're quite right to me. I don't think we really maximize Peters and Nick when they are on the floor together (and I don't think that's really anybody's fault; they're just not complementary players). Holman obviously has something going on.

That said, we're nowhere near a place that justifies some of the teeth gnashing that has gone on here. We're making incremental progress and are just a hair from being good. Plus we have two great building blocks moving forward in Woodard and Perry, and will probably see Nick really emerge if he gets to run the show himself.

We don't win many close games because we are not a very good defensive team overall and don't shoot free throws very well as a team. That is a BAD recipe for trying to close out games. Outside of Q is there anyone on our team that feel good about shooting a free throw to ice a game? And even Q missed one in the final seconds of regulation that would have beaten LSU.

 

[olblue]

I think some are blurring the lines between games that we shoulda/coulda won and genuinely bad losses. Don't get me wrong, I'm as disappointed about the season so far as anyone for reasons that have already been discussed ad nauseam in other threads, but it doesn't seem that any objective ranking out there is severely penalizing us for any of our Ls.

NCAA Net Ranking - 29
Nolan RPI - 27 with zero Q3 or Q4 losses
Lunardi Bracketology - 7 seed

We for sure could have put ourselves in a better position, but we've done little to destroy tournament hopes up to this point

Nothing has been destroyed as of yet, but MSU has positioned itself on a fine line with very little room for error.

 

[olblue]

Losing to OM at home was even worse to me than SC on the road. Only decent win we have in the league is beating Auburn at home. Not beating LSU when we had that game was a killer along with several other close losses that could have been marquee wins.

Ole Miss is #36 in the latest NET rankings. SC is hovering around the Mendoza line.

 

[Go Budaw]

We don't win many close games because we are not a very good defensive team overall and don't shoot free throws very well as a team. That is a BAD recipe for trying to close out games. Outside of Q is there anyone on our team that feel good about shooting a free throw to ice a game? And even Q missed one in the final seconds of regulation that would have beaten LSU.

We aren’t great defensively (yet), but we are far from terrible compared to the rest of the league. We are currently still top half of the league (7th) in PPG allowed. We are currently ahead of USC, LSU, and Alabama, all of whom have beaten us. Our biggest problems have been free throw shooting down the stretch and poor decision making in crunch time. We would have beaten LSU and OM for sure with better free throw shooting late in games, and would have been competitive with UK and might have taken that one to OT as well.

 

[Cow College]

Bama and LSU do not have better players than us. LSU normally has the best two players in the floor when they play but overall not more than us. I think the frustration with this team is that for 30 minutes throughout a game we will crush people but we will have 2 5 minute or a 10 minute period where we play so bad and lazy we lose. Just no dog in them.

We have a tendency towards the end of halves to quit passing the ball all together.

 

[VegasDawg13]

The sunshine pumpers will shrug off the South Carolina loss as "life in the SEC" but it is a bad loss, period. And a win over LSU could have been a really good win. Those are the two that stand out to me.

You can end your sentence with "period" all you want but a road loss to a top 100 team is not a bad loss.

We have no bad losses. We should be sitting in better shape than we currently are. Both can be true.

 

[Seinfeld]

Completely agree about our ability to close halves and the way that it’s haunted us all year. I’m not sure that it’s laziness, but he have shown a tendency to go into a shell during crunch time, and the ball movement practically comes to a halt.

I don’t know if it’s too many alpha dogs or not enough, but it seems like everyone on the court suddenly wants to win the game by themselves.

I definitely didn’t see that last night, though, so hopefully things are changing

 

[VegasDawg13]

Losing to OM at home was even worse to me than SC on the road. Only decent win we have in the league is beating Auburn at home. Not beating LSU when we had that game was a killer along with several other close losses that could have been marquee wins.

First of all, focusing on "league wins" serves no purpose other than to artificially diminish our resume. The NCAAT committee has said and shown repeatedly they do not care about league standings or records.

Second of all, by what definition is a road win against a top 40 team not considered "decent?"

 

[Go Budaw]

Bama and LSU do not have better players than us. LSU normally has the best two players in the floor when they play but overall not more than us. I think the frustration with this team is that for 30 minutes throughout a game we will crush people but we will have 2 5 minute or a 10 minute period where we play so bad and lazy we lose. Just no dog in them.

We have a tendency towards the end of halves to quit passing the ball all together.

LSU has two legit NBA prospects in Reid and Waters, as well as a couple of other fringe guys who could make it. We have zero guys in our lineup who are likely NBA picks, with the only possibilities really being Woodard and Perry who are true freshmen and may develop to that extent (or may not). Saying LSU doesn’t have better players when you take away their top two guys (who might be the two best players in the SEC) is ridiculous. What if you took Q and Peters out of our lineup, and compared what was left with LSU’s full lineup? That is basically what you are doing except in reverse.

 

[msstate7]

LSU has two legit NBA prospects in Reid and Waters, as well as a couple of other fringe guys who could make it. We have zero guys in our lineup who are surefire NBA picks, with the only possibilities really being Woodard and Perry who are true freshmen and may develop to that extent (or may not). Saying LSU doesn’t have better players when you take away their top two guys (who might be the two best players in the SEC) is ridiculous. What if you took Q and Peters out of our lineup, and compared what was left with LSU’s full lineup? That is basically what you are doing except in reverse.

I thought the same thing about waters, but apparently we may be wrong. I don't see waters on any of the mocks. Looks like we may get the pleasure of facing him 2 more years

 

[maroonmania]

Completely agree about our ability to close halves and the way that it’s haunted us all year. I’m not sure that it’s laziness, but he have shown a tendency to go into a shell during crunch time, and the ball movement practically comes to a halt.

I don’t know if it’s too many alpha dogs or not enough, but it seems like everyone on the court suddenly wants to win the game by themselves.

I definitely didn’t see that last night, though, so hopefully things are changing

If we hit free throws in close games the way we hit them last night we already have at least 2 more wins in conference play, maybe more. Made 80% last night where in a lot of the close games we were down in the low to mid 60 percentages.

 

[maroonmania]

First of all, focusing on "league wins" serves no purpose other than to artificially diminish our resume. The NCAAT committee has said and shown repeatedly they do not care about league standings or records.

Second of all, by what definition is a road win against a top 40 team not considered "decent?"

The only focus I'm giving league wins is ensuring we are at least .500 in the league. If you don't make that then you are giving the committee a good reason to leave you out. And yes I should have called 'decent' more like a 'good' win. Technically the road win at OM was a good win I just don't really consider OM a team that should beat us this year at all because they don't have the overall personnel we do this year which is why they were predicted so low in the league. But by the metrics, it was a good win but we needed that to balance out losing to them at home which was bad no matter what metric they have. I will say though if you get caught in a close game with OM they can easily beat you because they rarely miss a free throw down the stretch or at all.

 

[57stratdawg]

I gotta disagree; LSU has better talent than we do. They’re 10-1, might win the regular season title, and will likely be ranked in the Top 10 this time next week.

The conference has 3 teams at the top: Tennessee, LSU and Kentucky. We’re in the next tier.

 

[VegasDawg13]

Technically the road win at OM was a good win I just don't really consider OM a team that should beat us this year at all because they don't have the overall personnel we do this year which is why they were predicted so low in the league. But by the metrics, it was a good win but we needed that to balance out losing to them at home which was bad no matter what metric they have.

Yes, why pay attention to "metrics" when we can use preseason expectations to judge the quality of opponents?