Net ranking 24....big week coming up for us

[Scarlet Shack]

net rankings 24
Bart 21
Kenpom 25

clearly on the 6 seed/7 seed birder

Big week coming up....

A double win next week get us back in the rankings...and pushes us to the 5 seed line and knocking on the door of the 4 seed line ...

This is a good time for having a break to prepare for Iowa

 

[Knights 1212]

At this time I don't care if we are ranked. I don't think we need the extra pressure. I would rather be ranked at the end of the season. I am just enjoying the ride.

 

[wheezer]

At this time I don't care if we are ranked. I don't think we need the extra pressure. I would rather be ranked at the end of the season. I am just enjoying the ride.

The push for a decent ranking at the end is already underway now....we needed this four game winning streak

 

[fluoxetine]

Bart thinks we'd be a 5 seed if the season ended yesterday though is projecting us as a 7 when all is said and done. We should be ranked now.

 

[fluoxetine]

By the way, being scared of the team choking if someone puts a 19 next to their name or something is so weak.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This is silly. We went to Maryland and won. Beat Illinois and remained perfect. All with a ranking in front of our name.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

It’s amazing how important the non-conference games are being there were so few. We move up 2 more slots clearly thanks to FDU winning another road game.

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

I think falling from 11 to no votes is enough of a reminder to the team that they need to keep doing the things that earned a ranking if they want to keep seeing a ranking. Win the next two and we will deserve it again.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

It’s amazing how important the non-conference games are being there were so few. We move up 2 more slots clearly thanks to FDU winning another road game.

That and PSU moving into the NET top 30 as another Q1 team, Home and Road.
B1G has 8 out of 14 teams in the top 30 now.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

That and PSU moving into the NET top 30 as another Q1 team, Home and Road.
B1G has 8 out of 14 teams in the top 30 now.

I think PSU was already a Q1 game? We only play them in the road.

It was FDU. WVU played a team that lost. That’s why we moved ahead of them.

 

[RUChoppin]

It’s amazing how important the non-conference games are being there were so few. We move up 2 more slots clearly thanks to FDU winning another road game.

Boise St dropped like a rock yesterday after losing at Nevada.... went from NET 21 to NET 32, slipping behind us. That accounted for us moving up one spot. (Nevada jumped from 123 to 113 with the win)

FDU's win (jumping from 232 to 216) likely helped edged us past WVU, who was off. One of WVU's wins, Robert Morris, also dropped from 293 to 303 with a home loss.

 

[RU MAN]

net rankings 24
Bart 21
Kenpom 25

clearly on the 6 seed/7 seed birder

Big week coming up....

A double win next week get us back in the rankings...and pushes us to the 5 seed line and knocking on the door of the 4 seed line ...

This is a good time for having a break to prepare for Iowa

I really want to see us close this out strong and get a 6/7 seed. I DON'T want an 8 or 9 for obvious reasons. If we can get a 6 or 7 I think we can make a nice run in the NCAA's.

 

[RU MAN]

Boise St dropped like a rock yesterday after losing at Nevada.... went from NET 21 to NET 32, slipping behind us. That accounted for us moving up one spot. (Nevada jumped from 123 to 113 with the win)

FDU's win (jumping from 232 to 216) likely helped edged us past WVU, who was off. One of WVU's wins, Robert Morris, also dropped from 293 to 303 with a home loss.

I watched some of that game. I looked up three of their players, all transfers. Two transferred in from Arizona. One a 5 star the other a 4 star. The other transfer a 4 star from Oregon.

 

[Plum Street]

We get in he tournament on any seed line that’s great. The 4-7 seed lines would be where we want to be for a sweet 16 run.

 

[jordkap]

Moved past Kansas in Kenpom too... top 24 there. Should be a solid 6 seed now, would love to stay there

 

[bac2therac]

25 in the NET today, have a shot at AP top 25, it will be close, might just fall short. 2 wins this week could be put RU up to a projected seed line of 5.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Going to be very close. Can’t see UCLA, Florida or Drake staying in with their losses. Kansas shouldn’t stay in after getting blown out at WVU either but might.

Oklahoma State and USC will be in. My guess is that voters will respect UofL’s 6-3 record in the ACC so they’ll get in. Xavier could sneak in too but probably shouldn’t.

 

[fluoxetine]

We should be #16 but will probably be right around #25.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

We should be #16 but will probably be right around #25.

The Wisconsin home loss assures that we can’t possibly be higher than 20. We won’t (and shouldn’t) jump in front of them and I don’t see them moving up from 19.

 

[fluoxetine]

Yes but I also think they should be #9 so I'm internally consistent.

 

[fluoxetine]

The Correct Rankings (TM)

Michigan #3
Illinois #4
Ohio St #6
Iowa #7
Wisconsin #9
Rutgers #16
Purdue #18
Minnesota #28
Penn St #29
Indiana #31
Maryland #33
Michigan St #61
Northwestern #64
Nebraska #148

 

[bac2therac]

um no...wisconsin is not a top 10 team and Iowa certainly isnt either and RU is where they belong at 25

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

um no...wisconsin is not a top 10 team and Iowa certainly isnt either and RU is where they belong at 25

I guess it all depends on one's views. I am under the assumption any conference with and adjective and a number in it is good and all others are bad.

 

[fluoxetine]

um no...wisconsin is not a top 10 team and Iowa certainly isnt either and RU is where they belong at 25

You're just wrong, IMO. You are not weighting the strength of the conference correctly.

 

[fluoxetine]

Team	AP	Coaches	Computer Average	Torvik	Kenpom	Massey	Sagarin	Mine
Michigan	3	3	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​
Illinois	6	6	4.2​	5​	4​	4​	4​	4​
Iowa	15	16	6.4​	8​	5​	6​	6​	7​
Ohio St.	4	5	6.8​	7​	8​	5​	8​	6​
Wisconsin	21	21	11.2​	11​	11​	13​	12​	9​
Purdue	24	25	19.6​	25​	22​	11​	22​	18​
Rutgers	25	28	21.6​	23​	24​	19​	26​	16​
Indiana	NR	NR	27​	29​	25​	23​	27​	31​
Penn St.	NR	NR	29.6​	27​	30​	26​	36​	29​
Minnesota	35	35	35.6​	34​	42​	31​	43​	28​
Maryland	NR	NR	39.4​	50​	44​	33​	37​	33​
Michigan St.	NR	NR	57.4​	70​	62​	46​	48​	61​
Northwestern	NR	NR	67.2​	71​	72​	58​	71​	64​
Nebraska	NR	NR	121.8​	109​	123​	106​	123​	148​

 

[bac2therac]

Eye test

 

[fluoxetine]

Of other ranked teams, what is the average # of games you have watched each team play? Even granting the validity of the eye test (and I agree that a human watching the games can provide additional information that the computers may not be able to glean in such small sample sizes -- though I think the amount of such information is often way overestimated) most people try to apply it by comparing the teams they've watched to the way they imagine other teams play.

 

[bac2therac]

The eye test of watching all the Big 10 games and my experiences in watching games for 35 years

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Of other ranked teams, what is the average # of games you have watched each team play? Even granting the validity of the eye test (and I agree that a human watching the games can provide additional information that the computers may not be able to glean in such small sample sizes -- though I think the amount of such information is often way overestimated) most people try to apply it by comparing the teams they've watched to the way they imagine other teams play.

It’s not only the eye test. Outside of undefeated teams (Zags and Baylor), you only have one other non BIG team ahead of a 6 loss Iowa teamz. Take Missouri for example (I’m guessing they aren’t the one team in your top 6). How can you objectively say a 3 loss team with wins over Illinois, @ Tennessee, Alabama, Oregon, @ Arkansas and @ Wichita doesn’t have better body of work than Iowa?

 

[fluoxetine]

It’s not only the eye test. Outside of undefeated teams (Zags and Baylor), you only have one other non BIG team ahead of a 6 loss Iowa teamz. Take Missouri for example (I’m guessing they aren’t the one team in your top 6). How can you objectively say a 3 loss team with wins over Illinois, @ Tennessee, Alabama, Oregon, @ Arkansas and @ Wichita doesn’t have better body of work than Iowa?

(The other team is Houston. Missouri is #12.)

It's definitely objective because it's the output of a computer program. You can argue they're bad, sure, but they are definitely not the product of a personal bias in favor of the Big Ten. My computer rankings are mostly just for fun, I don't think they are the best algorithm or anything but I would put them against the eye test for handicapping any day.

But it's not like I'm an outlier here; as shown in my table above, Iowa is #8 Torvik, #5 Kenpom, #6 Massey, #6 Sagarin. Missouri is #20, #29, #15, and #32 in those rankings respectively. The theory behind these efficiency metrics is sound; the reason WHY the human rankings are so often so wrong is because people are blinded by raw W/L records like you are here. FYI Wichita State sucks; they are basically equivalent to Michigan State / Northwestern and here you are giving credit to Missouri for beating them because they ran up an 11-4 record playing noone.

(The reason why my rankings have Iowa lower and Missouri much higher than the other computers is that my system, being just for fun, gives a much larger bonus for simply winning games than any of the other systems do.)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

(The other team is Houston. Missouri is #12.)

It's definitely objective because it's the output of a computer program. You can argue they're bad, sure, but they are definitely not the product of a personal bias in favor of the Big Ten. My computer rankings are mostly just for fun, I don't think they are the best algorithm or anything but I would put them against the eye test for handicapping any day.

But it's not like I'm an outlier here; as shown in my table above, Iowa is #8 Torvik, #5 Kenpom, #6 Massey, #6 Sagarin. Missouri is #20, #29, #15, and #32 in those rankings respectively. The theory behind these efficiency metrics is sound; the reason WHY the human rankings are so often so wrong is because people are blinded by raw W/L records like you are here. FYI Wichita State sucks; they are basically equivalent to Michigan State / Northwestern and here you are giving credit to Missouri for beating them because they ran up an 11-4 record playing noone.

(The reason why my rankings have Iowa lower and Missouri much higher than the other computers is that my system, being just for fun, gives a much larger bonus for simply winning games than any of the other systems do.)

Wichita was a quad 1 road win against a bubble team from OOC play. I pointed them and Oregon out more to demonstrate that Missouri did not play a soft non-conference slate en route to their 13-3 record. Let’s pretend the Gonzaga game didn’t happen. Iowa still lost 2 more games than Missouri and has no wins as good as @ Tennessee and Illinois. The Alabama win is better than Iowa’s Purdue win too.

 

[biazza38]

The eye test of watching all the Big 10 games and my experiences in watching games for 35 years

I'm with you on the eye test. Anyone who has watched Wisconsin can see they are not a top 10 team.

 

[Rhuarc]

Team	AP	Coaches	Computer Average	Torvik	Kenpom	Massey	Sagarin	Mine
Michigan	3	3	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​	3​
Illinois	6	6	4.2​	5​	4​	4​	4​	4​
Iowa	15	16	6.4​	8​	5​	6​	6​	7​
Ohio St.	4	5	6.8​	7​	8​	5​	8​	6​
Wisconsin	21	21	11.2​	11​	11​	13​	12​	9​
Purdue	24	25	19.6​	25​	22​	11​	22​	18​
Rutgers	25	28	21.6​	23​	24​	19​	26​	16​
Indiana	NR	NR	27​	29​	25​	23​	27​	31​
Penn St.	NR	NR	29.6​	27​	30​	26​	36​	29​
Minnesota	35	35	35.6​	34​	42​	31​	43​	28​
Maryland	NR	NR	39.4​	50​	44​	33​	37​	33​
Michigan St.	NR	NR	57.4​	70​	62​	46​	48​	61​
Northwestern	NR	NR	67.2​	71​	72​	58​	71​	64​
Nebraska	NR	NR	121.8​	109​	123​	106​	123​	148​

Would you be able to show a list of the computer average top 25-30 for some perspective with national teams?

 

[bac2therac]

(The other team is Houston. Missouri is #12.)

It's definitely objective because it's the output of a computer program. You can argue they're bad, sure, but they are definitely not the product of a personal bias in favor of the Big Ten. My computer rankings are mostly just for fun, I don't think they are the best algorithm or anything but I would put them against the eye test for handicapping any day.

But it's not like I'm an outlier here; as shown in my table above, Iowa is #8 Torvik, #5 Kenpom, #6 Massey, #6 Sagarin. Missouri is #20, #29, #15, and #32 in those rankings respectively. The theory behind these efficiency metrics is sound; the reason WHY the human rankings are so often so wrong is because people are blinded by raw W/L records like you are here. FYI Wichita State sucks; they are basically equivalent to Michigan State / Northwestern and here you are giving credit to Missouri for beating them because they ran up an 11-4 record playing noone.

(The reason why my rankings have Iowa lower and Missouri much higher than the other computers is that my system, being just for fun, gives a much larger bonus for simply winning games than any of the other systems do.)

any school like Iowa who loses 4 of 5 and I dont care who they lost to IS NOT A TOP 10 SCHOOL.

 

[fluoxetine]

Wichita was a quad 1 road win against a bubble team from OOC play. I pointed them and Oregon out more to demonstrate that Missouri did not play a soft non-conference slate en route to their 13-3 record. Let’s pretend the Gonzaga game didn’t happen. Iowa still lost 2 more games than Missouri and has no wins as good as @ Tennessee and Illinois. The Alabama win isn’t better than Iowa’s Purdue win either.

Meh, the quads are stupid. Wichita is not terrible or anything, and beating them on the road is not completely meaningless, but they would be a bottom tier team in the Big Ten.

I don't think your logic is terrible, but the bottom line is that you can look at the efficiency metrics and Iowa >>> Missouri. If they played on a neutral court, I'd be super happy to take Iowa +100 on the moneyline and you should be too. These heuristics are 100% inferior to just crunching the numbers.

Would you be able to show a list of the computer average top 25-30 for some perspective with national teams?

Yes but it will take some time to put together so not tonight.

This guy on the main board posts something similar every week that you would probably find interesting:

https://forums.rivals.com/threads/2-8-21-cbb-aggregate-rankings.987429/

any school like Iowa who loses 4 of 5 and I dont care who they lost to IS NOT A TOP 10 SCHOOL.

Meh, I don't think weighting recent results more is completely unreasonable but I prefer to look at the season as a whole. I would rank them exactly the same if they started 13-0 and then lost 6 and vice versa.

 

[RU848789]

Two questions for the bracketologists, since I've been a little sidetracked with COVID and the snowy pattern for awhile. First, what is the actual case for the B1G being the best conference? Presumably, the B1G has a fantastic OOC record this year, collectively - is there some summary of that? Otherwise beating up on each other doesn't count for anything as all conferences do that.

Second, has the selection committee (or any of the ranking services) weighed in at all on how they're "weighting" road vs. home wins this year? It seems clear to me that road games aren't as tough this year without fans in most conferences - it's still a grind to travel, but no fans has to make it easier on visiting teams (and the refs, as it's been shown they favor home teams, presumably in relation to fan pressure).

 

[bac2therac]

its still aways good to win on the road.

the Big 10 is rated first non conference in the NET at 67-14 82% with the Big 12 next at 79%, no one else is close. Yes there are not as many big time wins for any of these conference as usual but there are enough.

 

[fluoxetine]

Two questions for the bracketologists, since I've been a little sidetracked with COVID and the snowy pattern for awhile. First, what is the actual case for the B1G being the best conference? Presumably, the B1G has a fantastic OOC record this year, collectively - is there some summary of that? Otherwise beating up on each other doesn't count for anything as all conferences do that.

The Big Ten had a 70-14 OOC record.

Of the 14 losses, 2 were to Baylor/Gonzaga and another 4 were to current top 20 teams.

 

[fluoxetine]

The Big Ten is to the Pac 12 as the Pac 12 is to the MAC East.

(And that's being kind to the Pac 12)

 

[RU848789]

its still aways good to win on the road.

the Big 10 is rated first non conference in the NET at 67-14 82% with the Big 12 next at 79%, no one else is close. Yes there are not as many big time wins for any of these conference as usual but there are enough.

The Big Ten had a 70-14 OOC record.

Of the 14 losses, 2 were to Baylor/Gonzaga and another 4 were to current top 20 teams.

Thanks guys, figured some of you would know the answer. That is pretty iimpressive - I had heard everyone saying how good the B1G was, but hadn't seen the data. Just knowing we were consensus the best conference is why I was saying 9 wins gets us in and 8 puts us on the bubble, but I want 11 and a 5/6 seed.

No change in road/home win value though? Seems like a miss - I would think records away are better than usual - anyone know if that's true?