NCAA Bracket chat.... Anyone else having a hard time finding good (seed) upsets?

[missouridawg]

Everyone is going to pick Texas over Butler and Ohio State over VCU (I think VCU wins this one)... but where else is there a possibility? Last year, the NCAA did a horrible job at seeding the teams between 6 and 12, which caused quite a few upsets. This year, outside of Georgetown at a 4 seed (way, way too high) and Wichita State at a 7 seed (too low), I think they got quite a bit of the seeding pretty accurate. Maybe there's a complaint about Kansas being 2 (instead of a 3) or Oklahoma being a 3 (instead of a 4/5)... but I don't see much to complain about outside of those few.

Now, some of the inclusions into the tourney (Texas, UCLA, Ole Miss) were very questionable... but the next three teams left out didn't have great resumes either. I think Colorado State and Temple both got shafted for brands (UCLA, Texas)... and I think OM had someone sleep with the committee chair (I have an excellent source on this one**).

It's almost as if the tournament committee figured out that teams like VCU, Northern Iowa, Utah, SMU, etc... are much more deserving than the regular 9s, 10s, and 11 seeds they usually get.

Anywho, my first pass through the bracket results in a UK national champ (surprise, surprise)... with Wisconsin, Duke, and Michigan State in the final four. I don't like having three 1 seeds there, but I just don't see any of them losing. Maybe Arizona or UNC can clip Wisconsin (Baylor can't). Maybe Iowa State can clip Duke (Gonzaga and Georgetown can't). The only thing I'm confident in regarding 1 seeds... is Villanova not getting there. In fact, I think Louisville beats them in the Sweet 16 (and I wouldn't be surprised to see Northern Iowa get to the final four - they have the easiest draw of all the 5 seeds to get to the Elite Eight).

What's your thoughts?

 

[The Maroon Pug]

I can see UAB upsetting Iowa State.

 

[BiscuitEater]

Thoughts ..

Kentucky seems to be rolling; possible hurdles are Kansas and Notre Dame. Kentucky is so long that they match up on the positive side with most teams. Big Blue's biggest hurdle is team 'complacency' .. they really haven't had play under pressure. F4 odds ~90%.

Whisky played with a lot of determination yesterday. UNC is 'streaky' but Zona has been playing really good lately and has a good chance to prevail. They have a good chance of getting to F4 .. but this is March madness and I give them Whisky a ~72% chance with Zona as the 'spoiler.'

Duke is good but lost to ND for the second time this season. Think that both Gonzaga and Georgetown are overhyped. Duke's odds to F4 are ~ 65%.

Villanova is the 'RHSC' and has too much to get through to make F4. NC State has the 'firepower' to win in third round. Win that and face N Iowa or Louisville winner. UVA will go as far as Justin Anderson's health (8 games missed with finger injury & appendectomy). UVA test will be against Iowa St. Make it through that and UVA is in E8. Villanova odds are ~40% .. UVA odds are ~45%.

Fire away!

 

[msstate7]

I can see UAB upsetting Iowa State.

I can't. Isu is good

 

[engie]

I noticed the same when glancing at it last night. Alot fewer potential upset candidates jumping off the screen to me this year....

That said, the first and second round will probably be mayhem. Always seems to happen that way when I think I have a pretty good idea what is going to transpire. Thurs-Sun are arguably the best 4 days in all of sports IMO. It's also arguably my favorite week for national sportstalk radio leading into it all, when I generally prefer the localized variety...

 

[missouridawg]

I noticed the same when glancing at it last night. Alot fewer potential upset candidates jumping off the screen to me this year....

That said, the first and second round will probably be mayhem. Always seems to happen that way when I think I have a pretty good idea what is going to transpire. Thurs-Sun are arguably the best 4 days in all of sports IMO. It's also arguably my favorite week for national sportstalk radio leading into it all, when I generally prefer the localized variety...

Agreed on the "best 4 days in sports" comment. Making my fourth consecutive trip to Vegas for the opening weekend... and it's one of the few non-negotiables in my life, right now.

 

[BiscuitEater]

Spent a lot of time ..

Making my fourth consecutive trip to Vegas for the opening weekend... and it's one of the few non-negotiables in my life, right now.

in Vegas .. where do you watch the games?

 

[missouridawg]

Me and my group of friends try to find a

in Vegas .. where do you watch the games?

a great deal on our rooms before we go. We've done the Venetian twice (great sportsbook for standing around to watch games) and the MGM (terrible book to stand around and watch games). This year, we're staying at the Aria as one of them got two of our three nights comp'ed. No clue about the viewing at this book.

In all honesty, I rarely plop down at a sportsbook to watch the games. I'm usually watching from whatever craps table or poker table I'm sitting at.

I'm sure, is MSU (or Mizzou) was playing, that this would be different and I would find a spot to watch the game. When Mizzou was a 2 seed a few years ago, I stopped to watch that game... and it didn't end very well.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

UVA test will be against Iowa St. Make it through that and UVA is in E8.

You failed Bracket Reading 101.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Have fun Missouri. My brother and I made that trip two or three times. It's definitely the most fun I've ever had watching the tournament. People would look at me like I had a third arm when I would say I went on vacation, got up at 6am to get a seat in a sportsbook, then waited for three hours for games to start, then sat there for 12 hours a day and did the same routine for four days straight. I would bet every game, a few totals, a select few first half lines and throw some parlays in. People who have never been there for that can't appreciate the roar of the crowd in the book in the last minute of a 30 point game between a 1 and a 16 when the total is being approached.

Bally's was my book of choice but every now and then I would stretch my legs and go plop down a bet at Paris or Caesar's.

 

[missouridawg]

Have fun Missouri. My brother and I made that trip two or three times. It's definitely the most fun I've ever had watching the tournament. People would look at me like I had a third arm when I would say I went on vacation, got up at 6am to get a seat in a sportsbook, then waited for three hours for games to start, then sat there for 12 hours a day and did the same routine for four days straight. I would bet every game, a few totals, a select few first half lines and throw some parlays in. People who have never been there for that can't appreciate the roar of the crowd in the book in the last minute of a 30 point game between a 1 and a 16 when the total is being approached.

Bally's was my book of choice but every now and then I would stretch my legs and go plop down a bet at Paris or Caesar's.

When Vegas gets the line right, every game is must-see TV. Those 10 point games with a 8 or 9 point spread are the best. A meaningless layup results in unfiltered elation. It really is awesome.

 

[fishwater99]

I like BYU tonight -3.5. Unless Moody is on fire the Bears lose.


Neat link on tourney predictions.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#mens?ex_cid=espnFB

 

[DawgatAuburn]

You are dead on Fish. BYU's offense will carve them up.

Interesting on Moody. He's had 22 games making 2 threes or less. But he had four games in which he made 25 combined threes. Total feast or famine.

 

[missouridawg]

Already took it at -2.5. These are two teams who are going in completely opposite directions. One won at Gonzaga recently. One lost to Auburn in a damn near must-win situation.

 

[fishwater99]

Moody got his tonight and Rhett on inside was difference.
Damn.

 

[Tomas Smid]

Wrong team was favored. The game . . . . .

wasn't as close as the final score indicates.

You are dead on Fish. BYU's offense will carve them up.

Interesting on Moody. He's had 22 games making 2 threes or less. But he had four games in which he made 25 combined threes. Total feast or famine.

 

[OleMissLogo]

Already took it at -2.5. These are two teams who are going in completely opposite directions. One won at Gonzaga recently. One lost to Auburn in a damn near must-win situation.

Uh, we didn't lose to Auburn. That was y'all...

 

[missouridawg]

That was their best half of basketball this season. Well done.

 

[seshomoru]

Got any good stock tips?

Nice call.

 

[Seinfeld]

I've gotta ask... what did you see that helped you nail this one? I haven't seen UAB play this year, but just from looking at their resume, it didn't looks like they had a prayer. They've been completely stomped by every half decent team they've played this year up until today

 

[The Maroon Pug]

Buy low, sell high***

 

[AHSDawg]

It was USC... Thank god we got that corrected..

 

[The Maroon Pug]

They played 4 tournament teams (power 5 conference) this year, toughest of any of the 12-15 seeds. I was banking on the Blazers finally learning their lessons after being stomped in the 2nd half in those 5 games. That team is young and I got very lucky. Also, both parents have degrees from UAB, so i usually keep up with UAB.

 

[paindonthurt_]

any comments?