My Theory on Cal's Decline

[Cold Stout Beer]

2019. One bounce of the ball in overtime, and the Cats are in a Final Four. That's why I don't understand people pointing back to 2015 or 2012. It's the last 4-5 years that have been maddening.

Was that the game where they didn’t call a foul on Auburn in the second half? A gift from the refs for having an injured star player I guess. smh

 

[BlueRunner11]

I think it’s pretty simple. It’s called coasting.

Happens to most when theyre way overpaid with zero accountability.

 

[TortElvisII]

The regular seasons since 2021 haven't been that bad. They have not been Kentucky standards but they have been decent. The post season on the other hand. I may be wrong but I don't think Cal cares to advance in the postseason. He has already showcased his draft picks and he's happy to sit at home. Let's work on getting these guys drafted and not worry about injuries.

 

[IFerg1969]

He better find a way to build a strong roster…

I agree, but he had a strong roster this year and did nothing with it. But somehow a different strong roster is going to overcome his ineptitude?

 

[ukalum1988]

The man is obsessed with recruiting and my only thought process on that is it was always his dream to go back to the pros at some point and win there. That’s what he really wanted but as the years went by and nobody came calling he realized his coaching years were numbered and not even the 499 players he’s got drafted could help him

Not arguing with you in the least, but in 2019 the Lakers supposedly were showing interest in Cal……. Then our feckless AD waves the “lifetime” contract in Cal’s face, and the rest as they say, is history.

The rest of your post is spot on about his obsession with getting guys to the NBA, etc.

 

[Yardeth]

I think you’re spot on! Sad thing is, UK basketball is f***ed until he’s gone! Another poster said this is worse than probation and I agree!

This is dead on, who cares we win 20 games a year. He padded his numbers when he first got to UK. The win total the last few years has taken a Huge hit.

 

[ukdesi]

I'm not sure if he's lost his hunger, desire, edge, etc. I just think he's flatly a bad coach. The years we've been good we've had some exceptional talent. In the last few years, up until this year at least, we haven't had the talent needed to overcome coaching. And in the recent years its compounded with older players, transfer/NIL etc., the physical nature of the college game, we are even more susceptible to upsets.

If he's going to continue with this simplistic style of coaching (only 1 defense, no focus on strategizing for the other team, basic pick and rolls, one on one offense, etc.) -- and I see zero evidence that he will change -- then he needs to build proper rosters with players who can impact the COLLEGE game, not necessarily NBA, whether freshman, transfers, etc. He has to evaluate whether some of the highly rated freshman are gonna impact the game in their first years or not, cause that's all you can count on (one year).

 

[Seth_C]

seems people forget we had the best team in 2017 with Fox, Monk and Bam. Just got roofereed out of a title. Since 2020 he has mailed it in it seems

The best team is a bit of a stretch. That team got beat by UCLA at home, got beat by Kansas at home, and got destroyed by Florida, losing by a whopping 22 points. They barely escaped Wichita State in the second round or you might view them very differently.

That was Cal’s last legitimately good team, but it’s hard to say they were the best given they lost to basically every other “great” team they played.

 

[Eccain01]

For me since 2020 has been the problem. We made the elite 8 in 2017 and 2019 and lost tough games. Covid and NIL changed everything. It lead to the game getting older and that 9-16 season was the first time he real criticism here from the local media and fans. Instead responding to the challenge he’s become spiteful and insular and more concerned with being right then winning games. Cal is not stupid it’s almost like he doesn’t play certain lineups out of spite.

 

[JonathanW_rivals]

2019. One bounce of the ball in overtime, and the Cats are in a Final Four. That's why I don't understand people pointing back to 2015 or 2012. It's the last 4-5 years that have been maddening.

This ^ is 100% correct.

It’s the last 4 years!
We were cheated out of a F4 in 17, and possibly 19 also, and had a solid chance had there been one in 20.
But the last 4 years have been historically embarrassing!!

And the game has changed due to the portal (and the extra Covid year).
I think for any chance to turn it around Cal must change too, looking back to his first UK team and Orton being drafted. You don’t have to play a lot to be drafted if your team is really good. So go play who gives you the best chance at winning, even if that means the top 6 are 3-4 returning players and 2-3 portal guys, and your best FR are contributing as 7th 8th 9th men.

 

[CatPatrick13]

I think Calipari's edge left after he won that 2012 title. He had accomplished his dream. His confidence was stolen when that 2014-15 team lost to Wisconsin. He was left with fear of losing. And any hunger he had to win left when he got that lifetime contract. He was left just trying to protect what he had been given.

Interesting take.... Maybe lazy belongs in there somewhere, but I just believe he is an average, at best, floor coach.... Never has had the ability/willingness to adapt on the fly..

 

[Cold Stout Beer]

Love my fellow Kentucky guys, but to this day, and I’ve always said this, they simply do not understand Calipari. Not gonna get into it all, but Calipari has motives and agendas that he’s had since day one, the contract only solidified he didn’t have to care about anyone thought. One thing I will say is the day Barnhart tried to stop Calipari from being hired, and the day the boosters wouldn’t give Calipari what he wanted and when he wanted it, the war was always going to come. The contract just makes it to where he doesn’t have to hide his intentions nor care.

Calipari did not suddenly forget how to coach defense or beat teams like St. Peter. It can’t be more plainly put than that.

He was ALWAYS going to leave here hated and in attack mode. Always. He was always going to try and burn it down on his exit.

Mike Mc-D aka Jeff2Reed aka dozens more back at it with yet another account, lol.

 

[know1]

Love my fellow Kentucky guys, but to this day, and I’ve always said this, they simply do not understand Calipari. Not gonna get into it all, but Calipari has motives and agendas that he’s had since day one, the contract only solidified he didn’t have to care about anyone thought. One thing I will say is the day Barnhart tried to stop Calipari from being hired, and the day the boosters wouldn’t give Calipari what he wanted and when he wanted it, the war was always going to come. The contract just makes it to where he doesn’t have to hide his intentions nor care.

Calipari did not suddenly forget how to coach defense or beat teams like St. Peter. It can’t be more plainly put than that.

He was ALWAYS going to leave here hated and in attack mode. Always. He was always going to try and burn it down on his exit.

Agreed.

 

[Monroe Claxton]

Low T.
He lost his energy and motivation and didn't listen to Ryan Lemond's commercials.

 

[westerncat]

I agree with other schools and coaches not fearing to play UK anymore. They know that Calipari is not got change defenses and play all of his 5* players no matter that he has guys sitting on the bench and will not start them. Sad how UK has fallen.

 

[Cats192]

Nice post @IL Wildcat .

I agree Cal has gotten lazy. I think a lot of that stems from a place of arrogance. 2010-2015: I fully believe Calipari was the hardest working man in showbiz. But after he felt like he'd built the empire--he seems to act like we don't need to do that. I think Cal feels like he has shown the world he is the man and Kentucky is THE brand. And that leads to him thinking we can make kids come to us. Kids should feel honored to get to play for Cal and Kentucky. And that's not the case. And it does not work.

Other schools are getting on kids early, and have been for a while. Back when Jai Lucas left for Duke, there were reports that their recruiting philosophies differed and that caused a rift. Cal wanted to swoop in at the last minute and say, "Hey kid, you did it. You earned the Kentucky offer. Welcome home." And kids aren't touched or honored. They're more impressed by the loyalty and the belief of the school that's been on them for 4 years.

I'm sure that's changed somewhat given the recent recruiting success. BUT...it's a sign of the overall laziness that's come from success.

 

[Randy Bob]

I think since coach assistant coach Robic left Cal the program has gone down.

 

[Elliott Tim]

I think Calipari's edge left after he won that 2012 title. He had accomplished his dream. His confidence was stolen when that 2014-15 team lost to Wisconsin. He was left with fear of losing. And any hunger he had to win left when he got that lifetime contract. He was left just trying to protect what he had been given.

So, all he's left is protecting his paycheck and his legacy. He thinks his primary legacy is about making millionaires. But he's wrong about how he will be remembered for putting guys in the NBA. Nobody will care except for those guys. So, his real legacy is losing to St Peter's, Kansas St, and Oakland in consecutive seasons. And so, what's left? Protecting his paycheck at all costs. That's where we are.

Can he recover from this? I thought this season was his best shot, but his lack of any edge, confidence, and hunger left his team floundering to an NAIA team. Next year, with 6 freshmen coming in to face teams of 4th, 5th, and 6th year seniors and grad students, there is zero chance of recovery.

If true, then it's a moot point to be optimistic till he's gone.
So do we continue to be miserable or move on?
For those my age (72), this post reminds me of Walter Cronkite saying the Viet Nam was was lost.
I can't argue with any points you made.
You nailed it.
I really suspect this goes much deeper than we know.

 

[dc513]

I think Calipari's edge left after he won that 2012 title. He had accomplished his dream. His confidence was stolen when that 2014-15 team lost to Wisconsin. He was left with fear of losing. And any hunger he had to win left when he got that lifetime contract. He was left just trying to protect what he had been given.

So, all he's left is protecting his paycheck and his legacy. He thinks his primary legacy is about making millionaires. But he's wrong about how he will be remembered for putting guys in the NBA. Nobody will care except for those guys. So, his real legacy is losing to St Peter's, Kansas St, and Oakland in consecutive seasons. And so, what's left? Protecting his paycheck at all costs. That's where we are.

Can he recover from this? I thought this season was his best shot, but his lack of any edge, confidence, and hunger left his team floundering to an NAIA team. Next year, with 6 freshmen coming in to face teams of 4th, 5th, and 6th year seniors and grad students, there is zero chance of recovery.

You have summed it up beautifully. This is exactly what I have thought about what has happened. That is the reason I don't want the next coach to have already won a NC before he gets here.

 

[Ron Mehico]

You guys are like police detectives that are trying to find the mystery killer of the housewife while the husband stands there covered in blood. Sometimes the truth is not an elaborate difficult to find mystery but is obvious and in plain site. Cal is washed up and the game has passed him by. Its happened to most people, most recently Bill Bellichek. It’s just most of them can be fired but Cal can’t with his ridiculous contract. We are currently stuck with a lame duck coach and see no hope for next year.

 

[Cats192]

The other/arguably bigger issues:

Covid-19, Transfer Portal, NIL.

Calipari DOMINATED college basketball by taking advantage of the one and done thing. He was getting elite talent. And they were generally speaking better than the teams that had Juniors and seniors. Equally important: the talent was more spread out. Dudes weren't in a hurry to leave their mid-major program.

Covid-19 gave guys an extra year. Now schools have super seniors to go along with their juniors and seniors. The average team is older. Teams are more experienced and skilled. It's great that DJ Wagner was a McDonalds All-American. But he hasn't spent 3 or 4 years learning to play college basketball at a high level. And there's value in that.

NIL also meant that these fringe guys are coming back. So the freshmen/sophomores that were fringe 2nd round draft picks--they're becoming Juniors and seniors.

The transfer portal: It's also made it easier for guys to stick around. But also, it's consolidating the talent. They changed the rules to be more lenient on the sit-out requirements and ultimately let the sit out requirement go. So now, you're Knecht or Schierman at Directional Dakota State: You transfer to a big school. And other star players at mid majors transfer to a big school. All of a sudden, all of the big schools are older and more talented than before.

And perhaps that's why we've seen so few upsets in this year's tournament.

2010-2019: You could do it Calipari's way. Freshmen heavy was fine. The world changed in 2020 and 2021. College basketball is older. It's more physically mature. It's tougher. It's more experienced. It's more skilled. You cannot keep throwing 18 year old freshmen at 22/23 year old grown men.

Calipari doesn't want to build a portal team. He wants to recruit freshmen and send them pro after 1 year to help "change their lives." I think he really did hit a point where he feels the NBA draft results are more important than the Kentucky on-the-court results. Or maybe he thought those results would be there in the end. But they haven't. And they won't be.

That's WHY I want a different coach. Say what you want about Scott Drew, his results are better than the crap Calipari is doing. Since all of the changes, he's won a title and at least 1 tournament game every year. And I think he'll do even better at Kentucky.

But hey, if you don't like Drew: Give me Oats. Give me anyone that will use grown men to play against other grown men.

 

[TriCountyCAT]

I think him failing to reach to final four with Monk, Fox and Bam did a number on him also. The Rooferee incident. We played well enough to win and got that trip to the title taken from us.

 

[K_TIME]

I think Calipari's edge left after he won that 2012 title. He had accomplished his dream. His confidence was stolen when that 2014-15 team lost to Wisconsin. He was left with fear of losing. And any hunger he had to win left when he got that lifetime contract. He was left just trying to protect what he had been given.

So, all he's left is protecting his paycheck and his legacy. He thinks his primary legacy is about making millionaires. But he's wrong about how he will be remembered for putting guys in the NBA. Nobody will care except for those guys. So, his real legacy is losing to St Peter's, Kansas St, and Oakland in consecutive seasons. And so, what's left? Protecting his paycheck at all costs. That's where we are.

Can he recover from this? I thought this season was his best shot, but his lack of any edge, confidence, and hunger left his team floundering to an NAIA team. Next year, with 6 freshmen coming in to face teams of 4th, 5th, and 6th year seniors and grad students, there is zero chance of recovery.

Robic

 

[sluggercatfan]

I think Calipari's edge left after he won that 2012 title. He had accomplished his dream. His confidence was stolen when that 2014-15 team lost to Wisconsin. He was left with fear of losing. And any hunger he had to win left when he got that lifetime contract. He was left just trying to protect what he had been given.

So, all he's left is protecting his paycheck and his legacy. He thinks his primary legacy is about making millionaires. But he's wrong about how he will be remembered for putting guys in the NBA. Nobody will care except for those guys. So, his real legacy is losing to St Peter's, Kansas St, and Oakland in consecutive seasons. And so, what's left? Protecting his paycheck at all costs. That's where we are.

Can he recover from this? I thought this season was his best shot, but his lack of any edge, confidence, and hunger left his

team floundering to an NAIA team. Next year, with 6 freshmen coming in to face teams of 4th, 5th, and 6th year seniors and grad students, there is zero chance of recovery.

He was neutered by Wisconsin in '15...He created a monster that is now consuming him. All the bragging, blovating and Gold standard bullSugarhoneyicetea us coming home to roost. A little humble pie sometimes dosent hurt..

 

[FrankUnderwood2.0]

As the goat, Saban, says he ate the rat poison. He got the ring, the HOF, and the massive contract that also took away being accountability….and decided to just get away from the grind and try to market/buzzword his way going through the motions. He covers it all up with these virtue signaling comments about “these kids” and “we have done so much in this state”.

The constant virtue signaling and white savior complex he has is the most nauseating.

 

[Trinity45]

I think Calipari's edge left after he won that 2012 title. He had accomplished his dream. His confidence was stolen when that 2014-15 team lost to Wisconsin. He was left with fear of losing. And any hunger he had to win left when he got that lifetime contract. He was left just trying to protect what he had been given.

So, all he's left is protecting his paycheck and his legacy. He thinks his primary legacy is about making millionaires. But he's wrong about how he will be remembered for putting guys in the NBA. Nobody will care except for those guys. So, his real legacy is losing to St Peter's, Kansas St, and Oakland in consecutive seasons. And so, what's left? Protecting his paycheck at all costs. That's where we are.

Can he recover from this? I thought this season was his best shot, but his lack of any edge, confidence, and hunger left his team floundering to an NAIA team. Next year, with 6 freshmen coming in to face teams of 4th, 5th, and 6th year seniors and grad students, there is zero chance of recovery.

My theory, first he can't coach a lick, second he is too arrogant and fat headed to change.

 

[L.O.D.]

9-16 shook Cal to core. He never recovered.

 

[permdaddy_rivals45705]

He was still hungry in 2015 he wanted 40-0 bad. Wisconsin shook him. 2017 UNC brought him to his knees and 2021 finished him. He's been a shell of himself since. More of a caricature of himself if we're being honest.

 

[WildcatNC]

I just think he's getting soft in his old age. Just doesn't have an edge anymore.

 

[FirewithFire]

Cal died after the 2015 loss. I don't know what happened, whether he thought he could never out do that class, or he figured out that the game is rigged against him, or he was just tired and done. Maybe he planned to retire after 2015 with an undefeated season and a title. Then his plan got crushed and so did his spirit. Then 2018 happened.

I know those two losses changed my outlook on all of sports. Can't imagine ivesting time and life to just get crapped on like that.

 

[Haggin_Hall_1983]

I think Calipari's edge left after he won that 2012 title. He had accomplished his dream. His confidence was stolen when that 2014-15 team lost to Wisconsin. He was left with fear of losing. And any hunger he had to win left when he got that lifetime contract. He was left just trying to protect what he had been given.

So, all he's left is protecting his paycheck and his legacy. He thinks his primary legacy is about making millionaires. But he's wrong about how he will be remembered for putting guys in the NBA. Nobody will care except for those guys. So, his real legacy is losing to St Peter's, Kansas St, and Oakland in consecutive seasons. And so, what's left? Protecting his paycheck at all costs. That's where we are.

Can he recover from this? I thought this season was his best shot, but his lack of any edge, confidence, and hunger left his team floundering to an NAIA team. Next year, with 6 freshmen coming in to face teams of 4th, 5th, and 6th year seniors and grad students, there is zero chance of recovery.

What has Cal done since Pitino left Louisville?

Cal lost his competitive fire when Pitino was dismissed.
Also remember this: When I was a student at UK, when dinosaurs walked the earth, the crowd at Rupp Booed Joe B every time he was introduced (things got better his last 3 years)- and I am sure that Joe communicated that to Cal.

Time heals many wounds....

 

[richbrookstomato]

The biggest issue for me is that UK is not a legit contender under him anymore. Teams and coaches do not fear UK. They do not dread to play UK.

Cal looks lost on the sidelines. You think any of those teams the last 3 years were worried? Coaches know how predictable Cal and UK are.

In years past, nobody wanted UK in their bracket. Now, nobody cares.

Actually the opposite of "fear", with what the Gullkie kid said, it's PITY. Which to me is MUCH WORSE!!

How does Cal look himself in the mirror when even LOW mid-major players feel sorry for you that they don't talk SMACK to your team during a game????!!!

This is where UK Basketball is right now under Cal. What a FALL from grace.

 

[Blue_2_the_bone_rivals]

He had a couple good runs after 38-1. Whatever happened, it was during 2019-20 season. Team turmoil, Covid, tournament cancellations, or whatever it was. He’s been a shell of himself, and the program has followed suit since.

 

[Elliott Tim]

You guys are like police detectives that are trying to find the mystery killer of the housewife while the husband stands there covered in blood. Sometimes the truth is not an elaborate difficult to find mystery but is obvious and in plain site. Cal is washed up and the game has passed him by. Its happened to most people, most recently Bill Bellichek. It’s just most of them can be fired but Cal can’t with his ridiculous contract. We are currently stuck with a lame duck coach and see no hope for next year.

I don't know that Belichek was washed up as much as the level of talent thing.
Even John Madden said he became a great coach when he had great players.
I agree that Cal doesn't seem to be great at x's and O's.
Pitino was one of the best at it when he was here and he knew how to blend players into a team .

 

[revcort]

For what it's worth, I do think you've done a very nice job with moderating the board during probably the worst of times in recent memory. At times, your take could be a bit different than mine, but I always appreciate a differing opinion, as long as it's respectful. Passion is thick around here and considering the difficult times, yours has been a job well done.

I really appreciate that Bluesbrother. And I agree, we are a passionate group of fans. That's why this program will be back to elite status at some point along the way. We're not going to accept for less than that. I definitely understand we have to let people have their say and even vent a bit. So long as folks are respectful and don't attack each other, we gotta give room for differing opinions. We all ultimately want the same thing- wins and success for this team and university, even if the path we want is different. Thanks again my friend.

 

[Dore95]

Cal has always tried to recruit the best high school players available. That is no longer the best way. It leaves you with having to promise starting positions and playing time to guys like Wagner and Edwards when they are simply not good enough as freshmen to warrant that. He would be better off recruiting lesser high school players and focusing on the portal. But that would involve embracing an entirely different way of doing things and a different recruiting message. That’s how the game has passed him by.

 

[know1]

Cal has always tried to recruit the best high school players available. That is no longer the best way. It leaves you with having to promise starting positions and playing time to guys like Wagner and Edwards when they are simply not good enough as freshmen to warrant that. He would be better off recruiting lesser high school players and focusing on the portal. But that would involve embracing an entirely different way of doing things and a different recruiting message. That’s how the game has passed him by.

The problem is lack of coaching. It's that simple.

 

[deplion_rivals116063]

I think Calipari's edge left after he won that 2012 title. He had accomplished his dream. His confidence was stolen when that 2014-15 team lost to Wisconsin. He was left with fear of losing. And any hunger he had to win left when he got that lifetime contract. He was left just trying to protect what he had been given.

So, all he's left is protecting his paycheck and his legacy. He thinks his primary legacy is about making millionaires. But he's wrong about how he will be remembered for putting guys in the NBA. Nobody will care except for those guys. So, his real legacy is losing to St Peter's, Kansas St, and Oakland in consecutive seasons. And so, what's left? Protecting his paycheck at all costs. That's where we are.

Can he recover from this? I thought this season was his best shot, but his lack of any edge, confidence, and hunger left his team floundering to an NAIA team. Next year, with 6 freshmen coming in to face teams of 4th, 5th, and 6th year seniors and grad students, there is zero chance of recovery.

Wish I could disagree with some of what you posted, because it would give me hope, but everything you said makes sense.

The gap between us and the truly elite teams in the country is only going to grow, and it's all because of bad coaching / program management.

I will believe to my dying day that this year's UK team had the most talent in the country this season. Since Cal couldn't win anything of importance with them, I can't imagine a scenario where he turns it around with a future team.

Sucks to be us.

 

[revcort]

Cal has always tried to recruit the best high school players available. That is no longer the best way. It leaves you with having to promise starting positions and playing time to guys like Wagner and Edwards when they are simply not good enough as freshmen to warrant that. He would be better off recruiting lesser high school players and focusing on the portal. But that would involve embracing an entirely different way of doing things and a different recruiting message. That’s how the game has passed him by.

Yep, I agree Dore95. Just look at these teams that are still alive the NCAA-T and it becomes very obvious how good teams should be built today. They're filled with juniors, seniors, and grad students. Our problem right now is that we've got 6 freshmen signed for next year. Those 18 and 19 year-olds are gonna be competing with guys who are 22, 23, and 24 next season, and they just can't physically compete.

I think about Anthony Davis as a freshman at UK. He was a once-in-a-generation kind of talent. He was long and could leap quickly, block shots. His shooting wasn't all that great and he wasn't very strong, but his head for the game and leaping and length made him a threat. But you look at him when he was 22, 23 or 24 and there is no comparison. He had some girth at that point, some physicality, and he could defend NBA bigs. Put that guy on UK at age as a junior, senior or grad student and he would have been unstoppable in the college game. That's what we're looking at with Zach Edey right now. He's only 21 (will be 22 in May) but he's a full grown man. Our big men this year were kids. Tall and long but very little strength, easy to push around.

All this to say, the portal has changed how teams are built, and the teams with the highest percentage of upperclassmen are winning. Most have multiple transfers who are 21+ years old and have experience in these tournaments. We're probably not gonna do well next year because those freshmen are not gonna be able to compete, especially defensively.

 

[pastorbob_rivals379927]

I have many different ideas about what happened, but the issue going foward is Cal is going to do One of Two things!
He is going to not go to the portal and just keep doing what he has knowing this will be his last year! Or he will try to prove he is still a Hall of Fame coach.
If he decides that he wants to redeem his reputation he will 1st try to build Nil funding that him and Mitch messed up, because the missed the train. If he can't do that with just boosters, he must get help from all those guys in the Nba. You have to have much more funding than UK has to get serious about the Portal. He then will have to tell some of the recruits straight up that they won't play much this year, and some will leave!
Those are the two scenarios in my view, either way we will know before long.