FPI giving us a 75% chance to win, but the spread is 17+. Seems like they’re telling two stories, doesn’t it. I assume a 17 point favorite at home wins way more than 3 out of 4 times.
Brad Edwards was on a betting podcast before the start of the season and highlighted MSU as a team that could significantly outperform their preseason FPI. He said that coaching changes are factored into their calculation, but it’s not very material since they could either help or hurt teams year 1. But, that meant that FPI was likely under-forecasting MSU’s offensive potential.
Anyway, maybe there is still an edge there.
Brad Edwards was on a betting podcast before the start of the season and highlighted MSU as a team that could significantly outperform their preseason FPI. He said that coaching changes are factored into their calculation, but it’s not very material since they could either help or hurt teams year 1. But, that meant that FPI was likely under-forecasting MSU’s offensive potential.
Anyway, maybe there is still an edge there.
