NCSU loses James, Rivers and Hayes. That roughly equates to us losing Ustby, Donarski, and Gakdeng. All of them were among the 4 best players on their top 20 teams.
So the question is who has more returning and added?
My rough breakdown by position, inserting returning players as starters when in doubt:
- Kelly > Brooks: Brooks is more of a traditional PG and was a solid distributor to the better players on her team at 4 assist per game and scored well. But Kelly is a much more efficient scorer.
- Grant > Jones: both played a 6th woman last year as frosh, but Grant was more impactful
- Nivar < Pierre: Pierre is a great transfer from Vandy, dynamic scorer and rebounder, great at defense.
- Harris > Awou: Harris is a top tier PF in the ACC, top 30 transfer get nationally. Awou needs significant growth to be an ACC starter.
- Thomas < Trygger: Thomas is the better defender and has more upside, but based on what was put on the floor last year, Trygger held her own as an ACC role player as a freshman.
Both teams added talent beyond the above and this obviously may not be the starting lineup by the time we play each other (or maybe in game 1 of the season, who knows?)
So lets look at who else is coming in or is a major contributor left on the bench:
- Collier was a decent part-time starter at center but Toomey has tons more upside; she just needs to put it together. I prefer Toomey.
- UNC transfer G Aarnisalo was a part-time starter on #3 UCLA and a decent chance she will start at UNC. NCSU transfer G Samuels was deep bench at #1 UConn, hard to know how good she is but #41 HS player. I prefer Aarnisalo.
- UNC (Zubich, Hull) and NCSU (Quigley, Cox, Steele) both have deep bench players who were 4 star recruits. Most do not play meaningful minutes in contested games. But both teams should have depth to not implode with an injury or two.
- NCSU Recruiting class: #58 CG Jernigan, ESPN #60 PG Lunan
- UNC Recruiting class: #22 SF Brooks, #24 Henderson, #77 Queiroz, INT Astakhova
There is of course wide variance on how college players do versus their college rankings, but players outside of the top 50 do not project to be a top tier ACC starter in their career. UNC is much more likely to have a standout, immediate impact freshman. Brooks in particular may be a starter this season.
I only give UNC a modest edge among starters and proven star transfers. On a neutral court it should be a close game. I think UNC has significantly more depth and upside.
The X-factor is UNC's defense. UNC has relied a lot of defense that last few season to be a top tier ACC team, but 3 defensive stalwarts graduated. Conversely, NCSU has relied on dynamic offensive players, who at times could overcome UNC's methodical defense. Can UNC's defense reload better than NCSU's offense?