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Misleading Stats

BleedHuskerRed

BleedHuskerRed

Senior
Oct 7, 2003
1,552
545
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One thing I struggle with is when people talk about how much our defense has improved and how much our offense has struggled. I did a little digging and compiled our division stats.

In the Big Ten West
1st in scoring offense
5th in scoring defense

1st in avg yards per game
5th in avg yards per game allowed

3rd in rushing yards per game
4th in rushing yards per game allowed

2nd in passing yards per game
5th in passing yards per game allowed

1st in offensive efficiency
5th in defensive efficiency

2nd in first downs
5th in opponent 1st downs

2nd in 3rd down conversions
4th in opponents 3rd down conversions

Average Offense stat= 1.7
Average defense stat= 4.7

I really believed our issues were our red zone offense but, come to find out we are the best in the Big Ten at Red Zone Offense and 9th in the league in Red Zone Defense. So, what's the issue? Is our defense just not as good as we think? All stats show the offense is significantly better than the defense. Is T.O.P. that big a factor. Basically we are 4 minutes a game, 1 minute a quarter away from being top 5 in T.O.P.
 
BleedHuskerRed

BleedHuskerRed

Senior
Oct 7, 2003
1,552
545
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Special Teams Stats compared to the rest of the Big Ten

7th in Kickoffs
13th in Field goal %
14th in PAT %
13th in Punting
 
BleedHuskerRed

BleedHuskerRed

Senior
Oct 7, 2003
1,552
545
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TheNewNU said:
We are a good team that doesnt know how to win and our coach is ride or die with his QB.
Click to expand...
I agree that we don't know how to win. Would you change QBs if you had those offensive numbers? I feel Frost should've sat Martinez against Purdue for a couple series in the third quarter.
 
Headcard

Headcard

Heisman
Feb 2, 2005
192,508
20,877
113
Nebraska is good at moving the ball and at stopping people, but still bad at winning football games. It really is amazing


 
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BleedHuskerRed

BleedHuskerRed

Senior
Oct 7, 2003
1,552
545
113
bleedhuskerred said:
One thing I struggle with is when people talk about how much our defense has improved and how much our offense has struggled. I did a little digging and compiled our division stats.

In the Big Ten West
1st in scoring offense
5th in scoring defense

1st in avg yards per game
5th in avg yards per game allowed

3rd in rushing yards per game
4th in rushing yards per game allowed

2nd in passing yards per game
5th in passing yards per game allowed

1st in offensive efficiency
5th in defensive efficiency

2nd in first downs
5th in opponent 1st downs

2nd in 3rd down conversions
4th in opponents 3rd down conversions

Average Offense stat= 1.7
Average defense stat= 4.7

I really believed our issues were our red zone offense but, come to find out we are the best in the Big Ten at Red Zone Offense and 9th in the league in Red Zone Defense. So, what's the issue? Is our defense just not as good as we think? All stats show the offense is significantly better than the defense. Is T.O.P. that big a factor. Basically we are 4 minutes a game, 1 minute a quarter away from being top 5 in T.O.P.
Click to expand...
I just realized the Red Zone Offense was sorted by number of TDs. We are actually 8th in Red Zone Offense % and 2nd in Red Zone Defense %. So, my belief that the Red Zone was key to our poor record is probably true.
 
H

HuskerOH_rivals315145

Junior
Dec 4, 2007
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bleedhuskerred said:
I agree that we don't know how to win. Would you change QBs if you had those offensive numbers? I feel Frost should've sat Martinez against Purdue for a couple series in the third quarter.
Click to expand...
The offensive numbers are very misleading when you have a QB who spots the opponents 7 points every game...
 
O

oldjar07

All-Conference
Oct 25, 2009
9,472
2,013
113
Those stats just prove there's noone better at losing than Scott Frost. It really is insane we're 3-6 with those stats, but this is the epitome of a Frost coached team.
 
R

redfanusa

All-Conference
Feb 6, 2009
4,892
1,607
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resdog851 said:
The Frost led Huskers lead the nation in stepping on their own dink.
Click to expand...
This is it exactly. Cut down on the dumb mistakes and this might be a one-loss team. If you look at UCF games under Frost, they were exactly the same way. It's just the way Frost operates.
 
BleedHuskerRed

BleedHuskerRed

Senior
Oct 7, 2003
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redwine65 said:
penalties? turnovers? 3rd down conversions?
Click to expand...
4th in the division in penalty yards and 4th in opponents penalty yards.

We average 43 yards in penalties and our opponents average 46 yards in penalties.

3rd down conversion we are #2 in the division at 43.5% and our defense is #4 at 37.1%
 
BleedHuskerRed

BleedHuskerRed

Senior
Oct 7, 2003
1,552
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Wyldcard said:
I'll take 13th in Punting as that says there is only 1 team that has punted less than we have.
Click to expand...
We are 4th in the Big Ten in avg punts per game at 3.7. We are 13th in Net Punting yards

OSU averages 2.3 punts per game
Michigan 3
Minnesota 3.6
 
Headcard

Headcard

Heisman
Feb 2, 2005
192,508
20,877
113
regionsdoc said:
How much better is the scoring D ranking if you remove special teams/QB gifts to the opponent?
Click to expand...

Fumble returned for TD Illinois
INT returned for TD Purdue
Punt returned for a TD MSU
XP returned for 2-pt OU
Sack for a Safety Minnesota
Punt return for a Safety Illinois

That's just direct points that come to mind, not even short fields caused by TO's and ST gaffs.
 
B

Bhusker76

Redshirt
Aug 28, 2021
32
39
18
redfanusa said:
This is it exactly. Cut down on the dumb mistakes and this might be a one-loss team. If you look at UCF games under Frost, they were exactly the same way. It's just the way Frost operates.
Click to expand...
No it shows you just how horribly coached we are. This is not the same conference that Ucf plays in.He caught many lucky breaks that season and now he has no Milton at qb and he has been exposed.
 
BleedHuskerRed

BleedHuskerRed

Senior
Oct 7, 2003
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regionsdoc said:
How much better is the scoring D ranking if you remove special teams/QB gifts to the opponent?
Click to expand...
If you remove the "gifts" We would move up from 5th in the division in Scoring D to 4th. That is without looking at every other team and removing any of their "gifts".

But, with so many losses being one score games it might be enough to get us a winning record.

MSU - Yes
Purdue - Maybe
Illinois - Yes
Oklahoma - Maybe

At least we would be 5 and 4
 
A

artguy68

Junior
Nov 3, 2008
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bleedhuskerred said:
If you remove the "gifts" We would move up from 5th in the division in Scoring D to 4th. That is without looking at every other team and removing any of their "gifts".

But, with so many losses being one score games it might be enough to get us a winning record.

MSU - Yes
Purdue - Maybe
Illinois - Yes
Oklahoma - Maybe

At least we would be 5 and 4
Click to expand...
But not really. It makes the wrong assumption that the game would have played out the same even with the "gift" removed. Teams adjust their game plan according to the score. You could just as easily assert that if their DB hadn't dropped the INT, or if their receiver hadn't dropped the ball, it wouldn't have been a one-score game.
 
A

artguy68

Junior
Nov 3, 2008
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bleedhuskerred said:
4th in the division in penalty yards and 4th in opponents penalty yards.

We average 43 yards in penalties and our opponents average 46 yards in penalties.

3rd down conversion we are #2 in the division at 43.5% and our defense is #4 at 37.1%
Click to expand...
Amazing that we are 4th in the division in penalty yards considering how the B10 refs all hate us and call us for penalties that they don't call on anyone else. 🤔
 
O

oldjar07

All-Conference
Oct 25, 2009
9,472
2,013
113
bleedhuskerred said:
If you remove the "gifts" We would move up from 5th in the division in Scoring D to 4th. That is without looking at every other team and removing any of their "gifts".

But, with so many losses being one score games it might be enough to get us a winning record.

MSU - Yes
Purdue - Maybe
Illinois - Yes
Oklahoma - Maybe

At least we would be 5 and 4
Click to expand...
I agree with your first part, every defense has to deal with short fields or even the offense or special teams giving up points directly. That's not unique to Nebraska.
 
I

InMotion

Senior
Dec 12, 2020
1,433
549
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Why don't we ever win?
Because Scott Frost.
From here on out, every good AND bad thing that happens to this football team can be answered "Because Scott Frost"
Enjoy.. GBR.
 
W

WestCoastCornhusker2

Senior
Oct 12, 2016
3,457
609
0
1. Turnovers
Nebraska is minus-3 for the season, 94th nationally and 11th in the Big Ten. Yes,
the interceptions and fumbles are a problem. But so is the defense’s inability to
produce takeaways.

2. Football Outsiders ranks Nebraska special teams dead last nationally — 130th.
ESPN is a little more generous — 123rd.

The metrics include NU’s 25 punt return yards — total. Nebraska’s 2.8-yard per
return is 125th nationally and 0.3 yards worse than Santino Panico’s infamous
3.1 average in 2004.
The metrics include 128 kickoff return yards, 123rd nationally.
The metrics include six missed field goals — no Power Five team has missed
more. And four missed extra points — no Power Five team has missed more.
The Big Red special-teams dumpster fire quietly keeps burning.

3. Nebraska’s offense and special teams are directly hurting the defense.
The offense has given up 16 points this year (one scoop-six, one pick-six, one
safety). Special teams have yielded another 11 (one punt return TD, one safety
and a 2-point return). That’s 27 points, while defense/special teams has added
zero to the Husker side.

4. The Husker offense is like the golfer who never contends but shoots 65 on
Sunday to grab a nice paycheck. So far in 2021, when the margin was eight points
or fewer (winning or losing) after halftime, Nebraska’s offense had 23
opportunities to score.
Twenty-three drives. It scored 24 points.
One third-quarter field goal against Michigan State, a go-ahead touchdown
against the Spartans and two go-ahead TDs against Michigan, one set up by an
interception return to the 13-yard line. That’s it. Six punts, five turnovers on
downs, two interceptions, two fumbles, two missed field goals, one safety and
one time expiration.
In the final five minutes of games, Nebraska is even worse in the clutch. Not a
single point in eight crunch-time possessions.

5. Luck
TeamRankings compiles all the important numbers, determines how many
games a team should win based on its performance and compares it to the actual
win total.
That’s the “luck rating.”
Entering November, Northern Illinois ranks first — 2.5 wins more than expected.
Ohio ranks 129th — minus-1.7 wins. Everyone is clustered pretty tightly.
Except Nebraska. The Huskers’ luck rating is dead last. Minus-2.7!
It is the worst luck rating since Notre Dame’s minus-3.3 in 2016. Of college
football’s 647 teams the past five seasons, none had a worse luck rating than
2021 Nebraska.
But it gets worse.

Notre Dame played 12 games that year; the Huskers have played nine. So per
game, only one FBS team since 2003 (when the database began) compares to
Nebraska’s minus-0.3 per-game average. That was 2015 Georgia Tech, whose
minus-3.6 “luck rating” — according to the TeamRankings guru I contacted — is
statistically too similar to separate from Nebraska’s.

In English, this is what it means: In 19 years, roughly 2,500 FBS teams
completed a football season. None statistically underachieved more than
Nebraska has thus far in 2021, at least not in relationship to its performance
level.
You can take that paragraph and argue that indeed Frost is closer than the
standings indicate. That once his team breaks through mentally, the record will
improve dramatically. Paul Johnson followed his 3-9 season at Georgia Tech
with 9-4. Brian Kelly followed his 4-8 season with 10-3 in 2017, then 12-1.

Or you can take that paragraph and further indict Frost. Because bad luck isn’t
really “luck” when it’s an annual pattern. The Huskers’ “luck” ranked 75th, 114th
and 118th the previous three seasons. They might look good enough on a stat
sheet, but you don’t play games on paper.
 
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B

bama_husker

All-Conference
Aug 21, 2004
9,392
1,159
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WestCoastCornhusker2 said:
5. Luck
TeamRankings compiles all the important numbers, determines how many
games a team should win based on its performance and compares it to the actual
win total.
That’s the “luck rating.”
Entering November, Northern Illinois ranks first — 2.5 wins more than expected.
Ohio ranks 129th — minus-1.7 wins. Everyone is clustered pretty tightly.
Except Nebraska. The Huskers’ luck rating is dead last. Minus-2.7!
It is the worst luck rating since Notre Dame’s minus-3.3 in 2016. Of college
football’s 647 teams the past five seasons, none had a worse luck rating than
2021 Nebraska.
But it gets worse.

Notre Dame played 12 games that year; the Huskers have played nine. So per
game, only one FBS team since 2003 (when the database began) compares to
Nebraska’s minus-0.3 per-game average. That was 2015 Georgia Tech, whose
minus-3.6 “luck rating” — according to the TeamRankings guru I contacted — is
statistically too similar to separate from Nebraska’s.

In English, this is what it means: In 19 years, roughly 2,500 FBS teams
completed a football season. None statistically underachieved more than
Nebraska has thus far in 2021, at least not in relationship to its performance
level.
You can take that paragraph and argue that indeed Frost is closer than the
standings indicate. That once his team breaks through mentally, the record will
improve dramatically. Paul Johnson followed his 3-9 season at Georgia Tech
with 9-4. Brian Kelly followed his 4-8 season with 10-3 in 2017, then 12-1.

Or you can take that paragraph and further indict Frost. Because bad luck isn’t
really “luck” when it’s an annual pattern. The Huskers’ “luck” ranked 75th, 114th
and 118th the previous three seasons. They might look good enough on a stat
sheet, but you don’t play games on paper.
Click to expand...
Perhaps this is a bad analogy, but this reminds me of analysis of mutual fund performance. Most mutual funds tend to revert to mean - they may over/underperform for a while but over a long enough timeframe most tend to the average. The exception are the really bad ones... they are pretty much always really bad.
 
inthedeed

inthedeed

Junior
Mar 28, 2009
6,925
315
83
WestCoastCornhusker2 said:
1. Turnovers
Nebraska is minus-3 for the season, 94th nationally and 11th in the Big Ten. Yes,
the interceptions and fumbles are a problem. But so is the defense’s inability to
produce takeaways.

2. Football Outsiders ranks Nebraska special teams dead last nationally — 130th.
ESPN is a little more generous — 123rd.

The metrics include NU’s 25 punt return yards — total. Nebraska’s 2.8-yard per
return is 125th nationally and 0.3 yards worse than Santino Panico’s infamous
3.1 average in 2004.
The metrics include 128 kickoff return yards, 123rd nationally.
The metrics include six missed field goals — no Power Five team has missed
more. And four missed extra points — no Power Five team has missed more.
The Big Red special-teams dumpster fire quietly keeps burning.

3. Nebraska’s offense and special teams are directly hurting the defense.
The offense has given up 16 points this year (one scoop-six, one pick-six, one
safety). Special teams have yielded another 11 (one punt return TD, one safety
and a 2-point return). That’s 27 points, while defense/special teams has added
zero to the Husker side.

4. The Husker offense is like the golfer who never contends but shoots 65 on
Sunday to grab a nice paycheck. So far in 2021, when the margin was eight points
or fewer (winning or losing) after halftime, Nebraska’s offense had 23
opportunities to score.
Twenty-three drives. It scored 24 points.
One third-quarter field goal against Michigan State, a go-ahead touchdown
against the Spartans and two go-ahead TDs against Michigan, one set up by an
interception return to the 13-yard line. That’s it. Six punts, five turnovers on
downs, two interceptions, two fumbles, two missed field goals, one safety and
one time expiration.
In the final five minutes of games, Nebraska is even worse in the clutch. Not a
single point in eight crunch-time possessions.

5. Luck
TeamRankings compiles all the important numbers, determines how many
games a team should win based on its performance and compares it to the actual
win total.
That’s the “luck rating.”
Entering November, Northern Illinois ranks first — 2.5 wins more than expected.
Ohio ranks 129th — minus-1.7 wins. Everyone is clustered pretty tightly.
Except Nebraska. The Huskers’ luck rating is dead last. Minus-2.7!
It is the worst luck rating since Notre Dame’s minus-3.3 in 2016. Of college
football’s 647 teams the past five seasons, none had a worse luck rating than
2021 Nebraska.
But it gets worse.

Notre Dame played 12 games that year; the Huskers have played nine. So per
game, only one FBS team since 2003 (when the database began) compares to
Nebraska’s minus-0.3 per-game average. That was 2015 Georgia Tech, whose
minus-3.6 “luck rating” — according to the TeamRankings guru I contacted — is
statistically too similar to separate from Nebraska’s.

In English, this is what it means: In 19 years, roughly 2,500 FBS teams
completed a football season. None statistically underachieved more than
Nebraska has thus far in 2021, at least not in relationship to its performance
level.
You can take that paragraph and argue that indeed Frost is closer than the
standings indicate. That once his team breaks through mentally, the record will
improve dramatically. Paul Johnson followed his 3-9 season at Georgia Tech
with 9-4. Brian Kelly followed his 4-8 season with 10-3 in 2017, then 12-1.

Or you can take that paragraph and further indict Frost. Because bad luck isn’t
really “luck” when it’s an annual pattern. The Huskers’ “luck” ranked 75th, 114th
and 118th the previous three seasons. They might look good enough on a stat
sheet, but you don’t play games on paper.
Click to expand...
this is it. i just shorten it down and call it the dumb fck plays/game. no matter what you do if you have enough dumb fck plays you will find a way to loose. frost and am have excelled at these plays. just when i think i have seen them all, they come up with a new wrinkle. looking backward to some new ones on saturday.
 
The_Guy_Behind_The_Guy_Behind_The_Guy

The_Guy_Behind_The_Guy_Behind_The_Guy

Senior
Nov 28, 2016
3,382
803
92
bleedhuskerred said:
One thing I struggle with is when people talk about how much our defense has improved and how much our offense has struggled. I did a little digging and compiled our division stats.

In the Big Ten West
1st in scoring offense
5th in scoring defense

1st in avg yards per game
5th in avg yards per game allowed

3rd in rushing yards per game
4th in rushing yards per game allowed

2nd in passing yards per game
5th in passing yards per game allowed

1st in offensive efficiency
5th in defensive efficiency

2nd in first downs
5th in opponent 1st downs

2nd in 3rd down conversions
4th in opponents 3rd down conversions

Average Offense stat= 1.7
Average defense stat= 4.7

I really believed our issues were our red zone offense but, come to find out we are the best in the Big Ten at Red Zone Offense and 9th in the league in Red Zone Defense. So, what's the issue? Is our defense just not as good as we think? All stats show the offense is significantly better than the defense. Is T.O.P. that big a factor. Basically we are 4 minutes a game, 1 minute a quarter away from being top 5 in T.O.P.
Click to expand...
Need stats on Special Teams that have singlehandedly lost several games.

Turnovers (scoop and score against Illinois and pick 6 against Purdue hurt).

And you already out the Red Zone woes.

Frost is simply not a details guy. If he were Special Teams would have been addressed long ago and we would not consistently be the worst in the Big-10 at turning the ball over.
 
BleedHuskerRed

BleedHuskerRed

Senior
Oct 7, 2003
1,552
545
113
The_Man_Behind_The_Man said:
Need stats on Special Teams that have singlehandedly lost several games.

Turnovers (scoop and score against Illinois and pick 6 against Purdue hurt).

And you already out the Red Zone woes.

Frost is simply not a details guy. If he were Special Teams would have been addressed long ago and we would not consistently be the worst in the Big-10 at turning the ball over.
Click to expand...
It sure seems like our turnovers just hurt more. We were +1 in turnover margin before the Purdue game.

Special Teams is an outlier compared to Offense and Defense stats.
 
A

Anon1716780950

Heisman
Nov 25, 2007
84,452
11,353
0
bleedhuskerred said:
One thing I struggle with is when people talk about how much our defense has improved and how much our offense has struggled. I did a little digging and compiled our division stats.

In the Big Ten West
1st in scoring offense
5th in scoring defense

1st in avg yards per game
5th in avg yards per game allowed

3rd in rushing yards per game
4th in rushing yards per game allowed

2nd in passing yards per game
5th in passing yards per game allowed

1st in offensive efficiency
5th in defensive efficiency

2nd in first downs
5th in opponent 1st downs

2nd in 3rd down conversions
4th in opponents 3rd down conversions

Average Offense stat= 1.7
Average defense stat= 4.7

I really believed our issues were our red zone offense but, come to find out we are the best in the Big Ten at Red Zone Offense and 9th in the league in Red Zone Defense. So, what's the issue? Is our defense just not as good as we think? All stats show the offense is significantly better than the defense. Is T.O.P. that big a factor. Basically we are 4 minutes a game, 1 minute a quarter away from being top 5 in T.O.P.
Click to expand...
3-6
 
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