Michigan Fumblitis

[DuddyB]

Something to keep an eye on for this game is Michigan has already fumbled six times this year. Three by their quarterback and two by their freshman RB2. You can bet Phil has noticed that.

 

[squeezebox_1]

they have been turnover prone, which is what allowed UTEP and Western to stay in those games. Let's hope this trend continues.

 

[uihawk82]

Something to keep an eye on for this game is Michigan has already fumbled six times this year. Three by their quarterback and two by their freshman RB2. You can bet Phil has noticed that.

they have been turnover prone, which is what allowed UTEP and Western to stay in those games. Let's hope this trend continues.

Good stat, yes the hawks need to play a very "clean" game as far as penalties and turnovers and win that battle forcing Mich into errors and they are error prone themselves.

 

[HawksRule73]

Teams that win the turnover margin in college football typically win about 78% of the time overall.

+1 is typically 70% win%
+2 is typically 80% win%
+3 or more is typically 90% win%

It's the one stat that has the greatest correlation to winning, which is why KF is so risk averse.

 

[HAWKNESS]

Now that we talked about it Michigan will have 0 fumbles and Iowa will lose 2 of them

 

[QChawks]

Now that we talked about it Michigan will have 0 fumbles and Iowa will lose 2 of them

 

[nu2u]

Teams that win the turnover margin in college football typically win about 78% of the time overall.

+1 is typically 70% win%
+2 is typically 80% win%
+3 or more is typically 90% win%

It's the one stat that has the greatest correlation to winning, which is why KF is so risk averse.

An even stronger correlation to win probability when “points scored off turnovers” is factored in. Which is to say that a positive turnover margin will typically yield a win probability advantage but the winningest teams are able to then put points on the board most of the time.

 

[Jonesy5960]

An even stronger correlation to win probability when “points scored off turnovers” is factored in. Which is to say that a positive turnover margin will typically yield a win probability advantage but the winningest teams are able to then put points on the board most of the time.

That was what Iowa was missing for several years. The Iowa defense was an elite turnover machine, but unless the TO resulted in a defensive TD, the offense was rarely able to capitalize.

 

[nu2u]

That was what Iowa was missing for several years. The Iowa defense was an elite turnover machine, but unless the TO resulted in a defensive TD, the offense was rarely able to capitalize.

For sure…. which points to another correlation: the probability that Hawkeye fans were more likely to drink to excess with Brian Ferentz as OC.

 

[DukeSlater]

Hank Brown has fumbled twice in 10 carries. An acquaintance tells me that's a 20 percent fumble rate, and another guy told me that's not very good. The narrative has been that Brown has yet to commit a turnover. A more realistic observation is that he has, in fact, fumbled twice but was lucky enough to recover both. One fumble occurred on the silly 4th and 1 QB sneak, the other on a scramble up the middle. The point being that Brown better tuck it in this week, the O-line better protect well, and Lester had better dial up a bunch of misdirection and quick passes. I don't like the idea of Brown trying sit in the pocket very long. He's not a statue, but he's not much of a runner, either.

 

[squeezebox_1]

Hank Brown has fumbled twice in 10 carries. An acquaintance tells me that's a 20 percent fumble rate, and another guy told me that's not very good. The narrative has been that Brown has yet to commit a turnover. A more realistic observation is that he has, in fact, fumbled twice but was lucky enough to recover both. One fumble occurred on the silly 4th and 1 QB sneak, the other on a scramble up the middle. The point being that Brown better tuck it in this week, the O-line better protect well, and Lester had better dial up a bunch of misdirection and quick passes. I don't like the idea of Brown trying sit in the pocket very long. He's not a statue, but he's not much of a runner, either.

He was also extremely lucky the swing pass wasn't a pick 6, but was instead knocked down at the line of scrimmage against ISU. He has certainly improved though, and it would be nice to see some more read options worked in.

 

[TRHawkeye28]

Hank Brown has fumbled twice in 10 carries. An acquaintance tells me that's a 20 percent fumble rate, and another guy told me that's not very good. The narrative has been that Brown has yet to commit a turnover. A more realistic observation is that he has, in fact, fumbled twice but was lucky enough to recover both. One fumble occurred on the silly 4th and 1 QB sneak, the other on a scramble up the middle. The point being that Brown better tuck it in this week, the O-line better protect well, and Lester had better dial up a bunch of misdirection and quick passes. I don't like the idea of Brown trying sit in the pocket very long. He's not a statue, but he's not much of a runner, either.

How about just not run a QB sneak again? It was great with MG.... but HB isn't the QB to do it

(I don't remember the scramble up the middle fumble)

I agree about the quick passes. Hopefully it's not the same game plan as ISU where we try to run into a stacked box for 3Qs

 

[UndercoverHawk]

Teams that win the turnover margin in college football typically win about 78% of the time overall.

+1 is typically 70% win%
+2 is typically 80% win%
+3 or more is typically 90% win%

It's the one stat that has the greatest correlation to winning, which is why KF is so risk averse.

Not every turnover is created equal though. A fumble in the red zone is different than an int 40-45yds down the field on 3rd down. The first is killer because you should be expecting at least 3 points, the second is essentially a punt.

 

[HawksRule73]

Not every turnover is created equal though. A fumble in the red zone is different than an int 40-45yds down the field on 3rd down. The first is killer because you should be expecting at least 3 points, the second is essentially a punt.

It all equals out in totality and the stat is still the stat. If you win the turnover battle, you have a 78% likelihood of winning the game. Doesn't matter how, where, etc.

 

[hawkeyebob1962]

Hank Brown has fumbled twice in 10 carries. An acquaintance tells me that's a 20 percent fumble rate, and another guy told me that's not very good. The narrative has been that Brown has yet to commit a turnover. A more realistic observation is that he has, in fact, fumbled twice but was lucky enough to recover both. One fumble occurred on the silly 4th and 1 QB sneak, the other on a scramble up the middle. The point being that Brown better tuck it in this week, the O-line better protect well, and Lester had better dial up a bunch of misdirection and quick passes. I don't like the idea of Brown trying sit in the pocket very long. He's not a statue, but he's not much of a runner, either.

Duke, you're literally being the guy telling everyone, "That roller coaster COULD have crashed!" three summers after everyone took the ride. You are literally complaining about fumbles that weren't lost.

 

[Titanhawk]

Hank Brown has fumbled twice in 10 carries. An acquaintance tells me that's a 20 percent fumble rate, and another guy told me that's not very good. The narrative has been that Brown has yet to commit a turnover. A more realistic observation is that he has, in fact, fumbled twice but was lucky enough to recover both. One fumble occurred on the silly 4th and 1 QB sneak, the other on a scramble up the middle. The point being that Brown better tuck it in this week, the O-line better protect well, and Lester had better dial up a bunch of misdirection and quick passes. I don't like the idea of Brown trying sit in the pocket very long. He's not a statue, but he's not much of a runner, either.

Wrong - how many times has he touched the ball? A QB as the designated runner on the play eliminates 95% of his touches. So your acquaintance doesn't know squat

 

[Burghawk87]

Wrong - how many times has he touched the ball? A QB as the designated runner on the play eliminates 95% of his touches. So your acquaintance doesn't know squat

He's just mad that his qb choice isn't the starter. And has a habit of being unable to move on from things on a sports forum.

 

[Jonesy5960]

He's just mad that his qb choice isn't the starter. And has a habit of being unable to move on from things on a sports forum.

There's a few on here that still aren't happy about Brown being the starter. Frankly I don't get it. They're 3-0 and he's played pretty well in every game. People just hate being wrong.

 

[WeBeHerkin]

There's a few on here that still aren't happy about Brown being the starter. Frankly I don't get it. They're 3-0 and he's played pretty well in every game. People just hate being wrong.

The backup is always prettier to some.

 

[DuddyB]

There's a few on here that still aren't happy about Brown being the starter. Frankly I don't get it. They're 3-0 and he's played pretty well in every game. People just hate being wrong.

I’ll admit that I thought Heck was the better option coming into the season. I’ll also admit Hank to this point is without question the better choice now. I’m hoping the growth we’ve seen every week from Hank manifests itself in these next 3 games.

 

[Jonesy5960]

I’ll admit that I thought Heck was the better option coming into the season. I’ll also admit Hank to this point is without question the better choice now. I’m hoping the growth we’ve seen every week from Hank manifests itself in these next 3 games.

Yeah. The shine has come off Heck to a degree. I get that they have only played 1 legit defense, but the guy has connected on 75% of his passes and has a 156 passer rating and some people are now pining for Gronowski and Bessinger. The passing game was just bad under Gronowski for half of last year and people have no idea if Bessinger will ever be a great QB, and yet....

 

[DuddyB]

Yeah. The shine has come off Heck to a degree. I get that they have only played 1 legit defense, but the guy has connected on 75% of his passes and has a 156 passer rating and some people are now pining for Gronowski and Bessinger. The passing game was just bad under Gronowski for half of last year and people have no idea if Bessinger will ever be a great QB, and yet....

All that is correct, I’m encouraged he at least performed decent against ISU’s defense. Really there was only one drive that he performed poorly.

That said, the pass protection has been spotless for him. I’ll be interested to see how he performs when he gets sped up.

 

[Rifler]

Yeah. The shine has come off Heck to a degree. I get that they have only played 1 legit defense, but the guy has connected on 75% of his passes and has a 156 passer rating and some people are now pining for Gronowski and Bessinger. The passing game was just bad under Gronowski for half of last year and people have no idea if Bessinger will ever be a great QB, and yet....

Iowa's "best" quarterback is always on the bench...

 

[LetsGoHawks83]

How about just not run a QB sneak again? It was great with MG.... but HB isn't the QB to do it

(I don't remember the scramble up the middle fumble)

I agree about the quick passes. Hopefully it's not the same game plan as ISU where we try to run into a stacked box for 3Qs

This. So far we've proven that this combination of QB and O-line isn't getting more that a foot on QB sneaks.

As much as I love a good QB tush push.....Unless they've unlocked something in practice, the sneak needs to be reserved for 1ft or less.

Spread out and give the defense something to consider with a pass or hand off up the middle.

 

[Hawkmanic23]

Iowa's "best" quarterback is always on the bench...

Many fanbases feel the same.

 

[hawkeyebob1962]

He's just mad that his qb choice isn't the starter. And has a habit of being unable to move on from things on a sports forum.

Yeah, well, at least it ain't a politics forum. Duke is still gnashing his teeth over 2000 in Florida.

 

[hawkeyebob1962]

There's a few on here that still aren't happy about Brown being the starter. Frankly I don't get it. They're 3-0 and he's played pretty well in every game. People just hate being wrong.

HBDS. IYKYK...

 

[Anon1681859870]

Now Michigan wont fumble. Thanks guys. Grrrr....

 

[hawkeyebob1962]

I’ll admit that I thought Heck was the better option coming into the season. I’ll also admit Hank to this point is without question the better choice now. I’m hoping the growth we’ve seen every week from Hank manifests itself in these next 3 games.

Newsflash: the next 3 games will be the same whether Hank or Heck. We are either the better team...or we aren't. I would be much more shocked coming out of these games 2-1 than I would 0-3. And I don't think we come out 0-3.