Based on?
Michigan hasn't allowed more than 20 points on defense since week 1 at Notre Dame when they had 24. (Maryland had 21 but had a return TD). Something Penn State has allowed every single week besides weeks 2 and 3 against Pitt and Kent State. Michigan also has the best secondary in the country and the best defense in the Big Ten by a wide margin in nearly every category. Plus they're at home where their lowest margin of victory was 21 (their average margin of victory at home this year is 36.6 in 5 games).
Penn State's offense is pretty one dimensional and is McSorely and nobody else. Their only hope is Michigan offensive incompetence and getting lucky on their patented chuck and pray McSorely special multiple times. Even so, it wouldn't result in a Penn State victory going away. If all goes according to plan, Michigan wins 38-20.