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Lunardi's Final Bracketology vs. Actual Bracket

H

HoopsTalker65

Sophomore
Dec 10, 2004
4,780
140
0
So just doing some rough comparison..just some quick numbers.

The March 12th final Bracket projection by Lunardi had:

17 teams correctly placed with the correct seed
14 teams correctly seeded but in a different region
11 team correct region but wrong seed
22 teams totally missed on seeds and region

I know this doesn't totally add up...and I haven't checked who he had making it that didn't or made it he didn't have...

So basically 42 of the 68 teams he had right in some way...31 of those he had seeded correctly.
 
T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
32,109
25,351
113
It's about what other bracket people do.
Most can get 65-68 teams correct
Most can get about 60-64 within 1 seed
and about 35-40 teams seeded exactly correct.

I wouldn't rank based on whether he got regions right or not. One miss on a seed line drastically chances that stuff. That's impossible to pick
 
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I

Ineverplayedthegame

All-Conference
Aug 12, 2005
5,139
4,960
0
My questions are.
1) Of the 68, how many did he get right?
2) How many seeds did he get right?
3) Of the seeds he missed, how bad did he miss?

I don't expect much on nailing the geography because the committee shows no commitment to it except the very top and the bottom of the field.
 
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TheDude73

TheDude73

Heisman
Jan 7, 2006
24,362
24,198
113
Clearly he's getting better, but who's to say that the committee doesn't "cheat" a little and use his bracketology releases as some foundation for their final selection? Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Let some other guy do all the work and they just tweak it to keep it from looking totally plagiarized.
 
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T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
32,109
25,351
113
He actually didn't do very well.

When the bracket matrix calculates the scores for all the brackets, I expect he is on the lower half.

He was one of few that had Syracuse in.
62 within one seed and 33 exact isn't good.
 
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O

OHIO COLONEL

Heisman
Feb 11, 2009
14,803
59,401
0
TheDude73 said:
Clearly he's getting better, but who's to say that the committee doesn't "cheat" a little and use his bracketology releases as some foundation for their final selection? Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Let some other guy do all the work and they just tweak it to keep it from looking totally plagiarized.
Click to expand...
And move some teams region to region to help...wait for it...sell tickets and generate TV ratings.
 
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yoshukai

yoshukai

Heisman
Dec 21, 2002
30,570
43,763
102
TheDude73 said:
Clearly he's getting better, but who's to say that the committee doesn't "cheat" a little and use his bracketology releases as some foundation for their final selection? Wouldn't surprise me one bit. Let some other guy do all the work and they just tweak it to keep it from looking totally plagiarized.
Click to expand...
Why would they look at Lunardos bracket when there are 20 other brackatologists that are more accurate ?
 
R

RacerX.ksr

Hall of Famer
Sep 17, 2004
132,592
114,515
0
Could someone explain to me how you were helped or harmed by Joe Lunardi's predictions? I've got nothing.
 
HenryMuto

HenryMuto

Heisman
Mar 31, 2012
20,688
13,982
113
I went 68/68 on teams I even had the last 4 out all correctly as well so 72/72.
I had a personal best 65 teams seeded within 1 seed line the other 3 I missed were 2 seeds off.
I had 43 teams seeded correctly.

I did my best ever but still sour at the whole Duke/UNC thing I had UNC as a 1 seed until right before the show ******** committee with their talking heads screwed me the ACC result did not matter at all.

Also I had SMU at a 6 seed moved them to a 5 after they beat Cincy but I forgot about the Sunday don't count rule. That move also cost me Minnesota correct seed who I had as a 5 dropped to a seed to move up SMU.

I thought no way the committee does the Northern Kentucky/Kentucky thing so I moved them to a 14 and Kent to a 15

Should have had 49 seeded correctly damn it....still did great and way better than Lunardi.
 
T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
32,109
25,351
113
HenryMuto said:
I went 68/68 on teams I even had the last 4 out all correctly as well so 72/72.
I had a personal best 65 teams seeded within 1 seed line the other 3 I missed were 2 seeds off.
I had 43 teams seeded correctly.

I did my best ever but still sour at the whole Duke/UNC thing I had UNC as a 1 seed until right before the show ******** committee with their talking heads screwed me the ACC result did not matter at all.

Also I had SMU at a 6 seed moved them to a 5 after they beat Cincy but I forgot about the Sunday don't count rule. That move also cost me Minnesota correct seed who I had as a 5 dropped to a seed to move up SMU.

I thought no way the committee does the Northern Kentucky/Kentucky thing so I moved them to a 14 and Kent to a 15

Should have had 49 seeded correctly damn it....still did great and way better than Lunardi.
Click to expand...

That's pretty good.
I had 68/68
65/68
and 39/68

probably should have went 41/68 if i just trusted my gut and swapped UL and Oregon. I think the loss of the Oregon guy was the reason UL was a 2 and they a 3.
 
HenryMuto

HenryMuto

Heisman
Mar 31, 2012
20,688
13,982
113
Jerry Palm finished tied for 130th out of 174 bracketologists on the matrix.

I am in the wrong business.
 
T

The_Answer1313_rivals

Heisman
May 27, 2007
32,109
25,351
113
HenryMuto said:
Jerry Palm finished tied for 130th out of 174 bracketologists on the matrix.

I am in the wrong business.
Click to expand...

Yeah your score this season would have been towards the top. I scored 347 which would have about 34th outta 174 brackets.

I think you would have scored 355 putting you 10th.
 
B

BluffaloSlim

Sophomore
Jan 1, 2016
259
150
0
Half the field is given to him by AQs... then think about the good teams who are non AQs in the power 5.. then the Mid Majors..

Guys. We could do what Bracketologists do. They only pick from a handful of teams on the bubble each year.
 
W

WildMoon

Heisman
Apr 7, 2009
78,693
11,120
0
HenryMuto said:
I went 68/68 on teams I even had the last 4 out all correctly as well so 72/72.
I had a personal best 65 teams seeded within 1 seed line the other 3 I missed were 2 seeds off.
I had 43 teams seeded correctly.

I did my best ever but still sour at the whole Duke/UNC thing I had UNC as a 1 seed until right before the show ******** committee with their talking heads screwed me the ACC result did not matter at all.

Also I had SMU at a 6 seed moved them to a 5 after they beat Cincy but I forgot about the Sunday don't count rule. That move also cost me Minnesota correct seed who I had as a 5 dropped to a seed to move up SMU.

I thought no way the committee does the Northern Kentucky/Kentucky thing so I moved them to a 14 and Kent to a 15

Should have had 49 seeded correctly damn it....still did great and way better than Lunardi.
Click to expand...

Haha you should have listen to me then about teams passing U.K. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
 
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