Lunardi Bracket Update

[Colbert17!]

We're an 8 seed playing Memphis in Greensboro.

Men's Bracketology: Kentucky jumps up big with one roster move

Can one player be the difference between a first-round exit and Sweet 16 run? Kentucky's projections say yes.

www.espn.com

 

[mikeyoc]

We're an 8 seed playing Memphis in Greensboro.

Men's Bracketology: Kentucky jumps up big with one roster move

Can one player be the difference between a first-round exit and Sweet 16 run? Kentucky's projections say yes.

www.espn.com

That's a bitter pill for Lunardi to swallow I'm thinking

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Duke hanging strong in his bracket. Wow

 

[kevin0214]

Hard to understand Indiana at 6. No Nova

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

That great Indiana resume of wins over UNC (6 in his bracket) and Xavier (4). The best team they've beaten since November is Nebraska.

Duke at 4 is a joke too.

At least we are finally getting some movement here.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Texas Tech being anywhere near the cusp is the biggest anomaly. I have no idea how NET could have them at 44. No quad 1 or 2 wins in 4 failed attempts. Only one Q3 win. They are 10-4 with 9 Q4 wins and 1 Q3.

 

[Shell21]

these guys like lunardi look on the history of the name on the jersey rather than the resume.

 

[fatsam98]

On Twitter he had us as a 7 seed last night. Not sure why the two aren't consistent. Again, it's too early to get worked up about this stuff anyway.

 

[anon1753890747]

It’s a little concerning but I am going to wait and see how we get treated as we keep playing like this before I let the bracketologist upset me
Paul for President!

 

[ScarletDave]

What about the other 87 bracketologists who are ranked higher in the accuracy ratings? Why do we constantly post this guy who is known to be one of the worst predictors in the country?

 

[MV9000]

Broadest audience would be my guess and taking it as a reflection of how the larger media powers view us

 

[fatsam98]

What about the other 87 bracketologists who are ranked higher in the accuracy ratings? Why do we constantly post this guy who is known to be one of the worst predictors in the country?

Eh, he's pretty good to be honest.

The 87 ranking is average of last 5 years I believe. Last year he came in at #151, which sounds pretty bad on the surface. But when you look at his final bracket, he had Wyoming out and Texas A&M in. Otherwise he nailed the rest of the field.

From a seeding perspective, he had everyone correct within 1 seed, except 8 seed Boise State who he had as a 6.

 

[bac2therac]

Bracketology is worthless until at least the end of the month

 

[Degaz-RU]

It’s interesting how prognosticators perceive teams with better offense as better teams. I think we get knocked down a peg or two because we struggle on offense, even though our defense is elite.

 

[Zak57]

It’s interesting how prognosticators perceive teams with better offense as better teams. I think we get knocked down a peg or two because we struggle on offense, even though our defense is elite.

This is a very good point. Let them fly under the radar then.

 

[FinalFourOrBust_rivals142702]

It’s interesting how prognosticators perceive teams with better offense as better teams. I think we get knocked down a peg or two because we struggle on offense, even though our defense is elite.

Houston and uconn are carried by their defenses and highly ranked so that theory doesn’t check out. Rutgers wasn’t highly ranked because unlike those schools we had bad losses. If Rutgers beats iowa on Sunday they will be ranked by every publication in the world.

 

[scarletnewyorker2006]

It’s interesting how prognosticators perceive teams with better offense as better teams. I think we get knocked down a peg or two because we struggle on offense, even though our defense is elite.

Especially since great defense is more reliable than great offense. Just not as sexy.

 

[LOU-RU85]

My prediction is we will be a 4-6 seed by the end of the season.

 

[RCBeta79]

We are going to be ranked at the end of regular season, so we are likely to be a 4 Seed!

 

[Degaz-RU]

Houston and uconn are carried by their defenses and highly ranked so that theory doesn’t check out. Rutgers wasn’t highly ranked because unlike those schools we had bad losses. If Rutgers beats iowa on Sunday they will be ranked by every publication in the world.

This is incorrect.

Although they both have very good defenses, Houston has the #11 ranked offense and UConn has the #8 ranked offense according to KenPom.

We are ranked #110 on offense.

I agree that the Temple and SHU losses knock us down too, but I’m not trying to argue we should be ranked in the AP top 10 or anything. I’m more just talking about commentators who give us backhand compliments and don’t view us as a potential high seed, despite what their eyes should be telling them.

 

[armenius]

Here is my updated Bracketology

 

[fatsam98]

Here is my updated Bracketology

When you look at Kentucky's results it seems like they're a bubble team at best. What makes them an 8 seed?

 

[RUJMM78]

When you look at Kentucky's results it seems like they're a bubble team at best. What makes them an 8 seed?

Perception as a elite basketball program along with Duke,North Carolina and Kansas.

 

[armenius]

When you look at Kentucky's results it seems like they're a bubble team at best. What makes them an 8 seed?

Wins over two teams I have on the bubble. Losses to teams that are squarely in the tournament. They are certainly trending downwards and are in real danger of falling out over the next couple weeks.

 

[fatsam98]

Lunardi has us as a 7 seed today against 10 seed Clemson in Albany.

Winner gets UConn.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Lunardi has us as a 7 seed today against 10 seed Clemson in Albany.

Winner gets UConn.

Generous seed right now for us, but Lunardi has a bizarre love affair with the B12. I have no idea if WF should be in the field right now, but he doesn’t even have them on the cusp.

On no planet should Oklahoma State (9-6) be included in a bracket that WF (10-5) is excluded from. Oklahoma State has one home win over an at large team in Lunardi’s field (WVU - he has them as a 9 seed). WF has a road win at Wisconsin (7 seed in his bracket) and a home win over Duke (5 seed). WF beat Virginia Tech (on his bubble). Oklahoma State lost to them. WF doesn’t even have worse losses than Oklahoma State to teams not in Lunardi’s field. Loyola Maramount and LSU vs. Southern Illinois and UCF.

 

[bac2therac]

Recency bias with guys like Lunardi with too early January bracketology. I can guarantee you he isnt doing a whole bracket scrub each time he does an update

 

[RutgHoops]

Generous seed right now for us, but Lunardi has a bizarre love affair with the B12. I have no idea if WF should be in the field right now, but he doesn’t even have them on the cusp.

On no planet should Oklahoma State (9-6) be included in a bracket that WF (10-5) is excluded from. Oklahoma State has one home win over an at large team in Lunardi’s field (WVU - he has them as a 9 seed). WF has a road win at Wisconsin (7 seed in his bracket) and a home win over Duke (5 seed). WF beat Virginia Tech (on his bubble). Oklahoma State lost to them. WF doesn’t even have worse losses than Oklahoma State to teams not in Lunardi’s field. Loyola Maramount and LSU vs. Southern Illinois and UCF.

B12 is easily the best conference in the country. If you look at kenpom, the difference between the best conference (B12) and the 2nd best conference (B1G) is almost the same as the difference between the 2nd best conference (B1G) and the 5th best conference (Pac12). According to kenpom all 10 of their teams are rated 41 or better. According to NET 8 of the 10 B12 teams have a NET of 41 or better. The B12 is going to get a lot of bids possibly similar to what the B1G achieved the last three years.

Winning in the OOC, as the B12 has done, will have positive impact for that league on Selection Sunday imo.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Recency bias with guys like Lunardi with too early January bracketology. I can guarantee you he isnt doing a whole bracket scrub each time he does an update

If your going to do a January bracket, you’d think he would at least spend the time making sure you bubble / cusp makes sense on a relative basis.

Iowa’s resume is objectively better than Oklahoma State’s too. Even with that loss to Eastern Illinois (which was without Chris Murray and Conner McCaffrey) - Iowa has wins @RU (7 seed), Wisonsin (7 seed), Indiana ( 8 seed), and Clemson (10 seed) in his bracket. How is one home win over WVU (seeded 9 by Lunardi’s own standards) better? It’s not like Oklahoma state has only lost to field teams.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

B12 is easily the best conference in the country. If you look at kenpom, the difference between the best conference (B12) and the 2nd best conference (B1G) is almost the same as the difference between the 2nd best conference (B1G) and the 5th best conference (Pac12). According to kenpom all 10 of their teams are rated 41 or better. According to NET 8 of the 10 B12 teams have a NET of 41 or better. The B12 is going to get a lot of bids possibly similar to what the B1G achieved the last three years.

Winning in the OOC, as the B12 has done, will have positive impact for that league on Selection Sunday imo.

9 out of 10 B12 teams are not making the field unless there is a ton of parity in the conference standings. Teams get selected for the field independent of conference affiliation.

Neither Oklahoma State nor Oklahoma have resumes that would warrant inclusion in the field right now. Oklahoma’s resume looks a lot like it did last year and they didn’t get in then. No wins over field teams. TT would have a big uphill battle to get in the field. WVU doesn’t have a win over anyone in Lunardi’s field yet either by the way.

 

[bac2therac]

two of those Big 12 schools will go 6-12....almost always one of them tanks....usually Oklahoma and both they and Okie St seem like the most likely candidates along with Texas Tech and WVU is no sure thing

 

[bac2therac]

looking at their resume what helps the Big 12 schools is no bad losses top to bottom. The problem will be the cannibilzation that will lead to 17-13 and 16-14 type records for few

 

[fluoxetine]

The B12 probably has 10 tournament quality teams but at least 1, probably 2, maybe 3 won't make it.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The B12 probably has 10 tournament quality teams but at least 1, probably 2, maybe 3 won't make it.

At the moment there’s nothing tournament caliber about Texas Tech’s resume. There’s nothing tournament caliber about Oklahoma State or Oklahoma’s resumes either outside of bloated NETs.

Even WVU. The best thing about their resume so far is that Okie State is their only loss to a team that’s not a sure NCAA tourney team. But they lost to Kansas, Purdue, and Xavier by double digits. Wins over Florida, Portland State and Pitt aren’t getting them into the field unless they find some wins against the top half of the B12.

 

[fluoxetine]

At the moment there’s nothing tournament caliber about Texas Tech’s resume. There’s nothing tournament caliber about Oklahoma State or Oklahoma’s resumes either outside of bloated NETs.

Even WVU. The best thing about their resume so far is that Okie State is their only loss to a team that’s not a sure NCAA tourney team. But they lost to Kansas, Purdue, and Xavier by double digits. Wins over Florida, Portland State and Pitt aren’t getting them into the field unless they find some wins against the top half of the B12.

I'm talking about the teams not the resumes. Agree that OK St / TT get left out if the selection was today.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I'm talking about the teams not the resumes. Agree that OK St / TT get left out if the selection was today.

I mean - that WAB metric might say they have 10 NCAA caliber teams. But that thing also ranks UMass Lowell only a couple spots below us. We are 69. They are 76. That tells me it’s complete garbage.

Texas Tech’s best wins are Eastern Washington (by 7) and Louisiana Tech (by 9). Both at home. Everyone else is Q4. They have tried and failed now in 5 attempts against Q1 and 2. So far, that seems to paint a pretty consistent picture of a team that isn’t NCAA caliber.

 

[fluoxetine]

I mean - that WAB metric might say they have 10 NCAA caliber teams. But that thing also ranks UMass Lowell only a couple spots below us. We are 69. They are 76. That tells me it’s complete garbage.

Texas Tech’s best wins are Eastern Washington (by 7) and Louisiana Tech (by 9). Both at home. Everyone else is Q4. They have tried and failed now in 5 attempts against Q1 and 2. So far, that seems to paint a pretty consistent picture of a team that isn’t NCAA caliber.

WAB doesn't. Bart/kenpom does.

Kansas #5/#5
Texas #12/#8
OK St #15/#29
WVU #16/#23
K St #22/#27
I St #25 / #28
Baylor #31 / #26
TT #34 / #41
TCU #39 / #32
OU #40 / #31

 

[bac2therac]

Bracketville Dave has 11 Big 10 schools in his field. Its quite possible

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

WAB doesn't. Bart/kenpom does.

Kansas #5/#5
Texas #12/#8
OK St #15/#29
WVU #16/#23
K St #22/#27
I St #25 / #28
Baylor #31 / #26
TT #34 / #41
TCU #39 / #32
OU #40 / #31

I don’t get it. How can a school like TT without a Q1 or Q2 win or even a double digit Q3 win have numbers like these?

 

[fluoxetine]

I don’t get it. How can a school like TT without a Q1 or Q2 win or even a double digit Q3 win have numbers like these?

They've dropped after losing by 34 (!) yesterday, but prior to that I would have to guess:
they beat most of the cupcakes by quite a lot
the losses were all close and to good teams