Looking ahead to SECT and Regional pitching rotation....

[thekimmer]

After this weekend we will shift for the next couple of weeks to tournament play where our first opponent should be significantly weaker than our second. What adjustments do you make if any in the rotation? In the SECT we will probably face the #6 seed which right now looks to be either UM, LSU, or TAM. Then probably Arky. The next week we will face a 4 seed in game 1.

Do you somehow try to work plumb into that game 1 slot since he seems to be the guy most likely to be able to give you a few innings if needed at the end of the tourney? In the SECT we will likely be facing someone's #2 as they will have to play on Tues. In the regional there can be a pretty big gap between a 4 seed and a 1 seed but I know that strategy bit us in the butt in like 89?

Thoughts?

 

[MSUDC11]

In Hoover I expect us to go midweek/Johnny Wholestaff on Wednesday. Feel certain you’ll see Smith or James get the start. Then Small on Thursday. Ginn and Plumlee will go in the next two games if we are still playing.

The Regional plan really depends on who the 4 seed is. If we’re playing somebody from the SWAC then we could probably get away with using Smith or James. If it’s a stronger 4 then you go with Ginn or Plumlee.

We also need to see how long we last in Hoover. Let’s say we go 1-2 and Plumlee doesn’t get a start. Seems like he would be a prime candidate to start Friday in a Regional.

 

[Cat Duck]

After this weekend we will shift for the next couple of weeks to tournament play where our first opponent should be significantly weaker than our second. What adjustments do you make if any in the rotation? In the SECT we will probably face the #6 seed which right now looks to be either UM, LSU, or TAM. Then probably Arky. The next week we will face a 4 seed in game 1.

Do you somehow try to work plumb into that game 1 slot since he seems to be the guy most likely to be able to give you a few innings if needed at the end of the tourney? In the SECT we will likely be facing someone's #2 as they will have to play on Tues. In the regional there can be a pretty big gap between a 4 seed and a 1 seed but I know that strategy bit us in the butt in like 89?

Thoughts?

You will have so much rest between Hoover and the regionals that it won't matter. Small, Ginn, Plumlee on Thursday, Friday, Saturday this week, then the same next week albeit Plumlee would not go until Sunday if we won Thursday, since Ginn would go on Saturday. That scenario is unlikely. On Wednesday in Hoover I'm sure we would go with Smith and James, setting up Small for Thursday, then it depends on win/loss.

You don't know who your #4 seed will be in the regional, so you can't plan to put your #3 out there. You roll with #1 and #2, in some fashion, for the first two games, then rely on Plumlee to win the championship game.

I see the viewpoint though, resting Plumlee this weekend, then starting him Wednesday in Hoover, then throwing him in the regional. In theory that could work, but I fear that is overthinking it.

Throw Ginn vs. the #4 in the regional and move on.

 

[Go Budaw]

After this weekend we will shift for the next couple of weeks to tournament play where our first opponent should be significantly weaker than our second. What adjustments do you make if any in the rotation? In the SECT we will probably face the #6 seed which right now looks to be either UM, LSU, or TAM. Then probably Arky. The next week we will face a 4 seed in game 1.

Do you somehow try to work plumb into that game 1 slot since he seems to be the guy most likely to be able to give you a few innings if needed at the end of the tourney? In the SECT we will likely be facing someone's #2 as they will have to play on Tues. In the regional there can be a pretty big gap between a 4 seed and a 1 seed but I know that strategy bit us in the butt in like 89?

Thoughts?

It may be worth considering flipping Ginn and Small in the regional, depending on the 2-seed we get paired with. Not doing that bit us in the butt against UNC in 2003. And its not like Ginn is chopped liver that you are throwing against the 4-seed. But you have to throw some combo of those guys in the first two games.

As far as the SEC tournament goes, who cares? Use it to get innings for some of our marginal guys that we will need out of the pen in the regionals. Try to get a start for each of our weekend guys just to keep them from having a long layoff, but don’t even think about extending any of them. Don’t worry about anything past 3 games. 1-2 and get ready for regionals would be fine with me.

 

[engie]

It may be worth considering flipping Ginn and Small in the regional, depending on the 2-seed we get paired with. Not doing that bit us in the butt against UNC in 2003. And its not like Ginn is chopped liver that you are throwing against the 4-seed. But you have to throw some combo of those guys in the first two games.

Yeah, I know what you are trying to say here, but what you actually said doesn't make sense.

If it's a swac type 4 seed(which Polk threw Maholm against in 03 when he was all we had), you go Plumlee. You don't gain/lose anything of note between Small and Ginn.

 

[patdog]

Agree. If you've got a weak #4, you've got to pitch Plumlee in that game. I really think it won't matter much this year though. I think we go 3-0 no matter the rotation.

 

[StarkVegas Steve]

You definitely go Smith or James on Wednesday. A win there would be huge because you feel pretty confident that Small will get you a W on Thursday and that would give you a bye til Saturday which would put JT on his usual day and let you use Plum on Sunday. I'm not advocating for us to go all out and try to win the damn thing, especially if a National Seed is already locked up. But our pitching sets up pretty well if we're able to get by Wednesday.

Now for the regional, I think you go Plumlee in Game 1 of a regional no matter who you're playing. He's shown he can shut down anyone already. And if you get by Friday and have Small and Ginn to close it out you have to feel pretty damn confident about your chances. The only downside to that is that your bullpen has the possibility to get depleted which would put more pressure on Small and Ginn to have long quality starts.

 

[Willow Grove Dawg]

We cannot waste Small or Ginn against a #4 seed in the NCAA. If I am reviewing the stats correctly, we have only had 3 games all season against teams with sub 75 RPI's where we did not score 7 runs or more - 5 vs. Texas Southern #264, 5 against Maine #192, & 3 against UAB #157 (the night Denver McQuary had an out of body revenge performance. Plumlee should be able to hold any #4 seed below 7 runs.

 

[engie]

It’s also not quite that cut and dried. There are a number of potential 4 seeds with one elite arm that you prettymuch have to match up against. See it a couple of times every season. You wouldn’t think they’d match them with high national seeds, but you see it from the committee a couple of times every tournament.

 

[Go Budaw]

Yeah, I know what you are trying to say here, but what you actually said doesn't make sense.

If it's a swac type 4 seed(which Polk threw Maholm against in 03 when he was all we had), you go Plumlee. You don't gain/lose anything of note between Small and Ginn.

A SWAC 4-seed beat a national seed ULL a few years ago. And saying you don’t gain or lose anything of note between Small / Ginn against the 2 seed is silly. Small’s ERA is almost half Ginn’s, his BA against is .066 lower, and his K rate is way higher, which is important for a team that has sporadic struggles defensively like we do. Ginn is very good but Small has been considerably better. You want the best guy on the mound against the 2/3 winner.

 

[patdog]

It's been a long time, but back in the 80s, Arizona St. was ranked #1 and drew Evansville as the #6 seed in their regional. Evansville's ace was Andy Benes who was the #1 player taken in the draft that year and had a long successful career with the Cardinals. ASU lost that opening game 1-0. Worst matchup I've ever seen an elite team draw.

 

[engie]

A SWAC 4-seed beat a national seed ULL a few years ago. And saying you don’t gain or lose anything of note between Small / Ginn against the 2 seed is silly. Small’s ERA is almost half Ginn’s, and his K rate is way higher, which is important for a team that has sporadic struggles defensively like we do.

Remind me who won that regional...

Your flip flop in our situation is ridiculous which is why you are the only person thinking it’s a good idea. Better chance you screw them both up rather than it producing any notable gain. Tantamount to wanting to flip flop Hudson and Sexton in 2016 just because. If you want to throw Plumlee first I’m all for it, depending on exact matchup. Flip flopping Ginn and Small for the first two = sit on the breaker and adjust to the fastball.

 

[thekimmer]

I also think it depends on the quality of a 4 seed's number one versus the depth of their staff. Some 4 seeds have a lights out #1 but absolute garbage behind him which is why they are a 4. The other consideration is who will you be facing in game 2? The advantage you have is you will know that before your first pitch as you play the second game.

The rub is you gotta make sure you win game 1 to make this work. If you lose game 1 now you are throwing your #1, #2 and a mid week guy just to try and get to a championship game and everybody is second guessing the hell out of you for trying to save your aces.

 

[8dog]

I believe the score was 1-0. So i dont think it mattered who ulala threw

 

[crackerjax]

SEC Tourney: Johnny Wholestaff in G1, then normal rotation.

NCAA Regional: Usual rotation of Small, Ginn, Plumlee. In a 4-team bracket, you always want to win your first two to get to the finals in as few games as possible. Most 4 seeds will have one good ace, so why mess around? If this team can’t beat a 2-seed’s number two pitcher with Ginn, it might not be as good as I thought.

 

[Go Budaw]

I believe the score was 1-0. So i dont think it mattered who ulala threw

The point is even a 4-seed can have one good pitcher that you may need to counter with a good pitcher of your own, or has an OK pitcher who could have the game of his life. There’s a lot of parity in baseball. That was just one example. Also look at Stony Brook a few years ago.

The way to win a regional is to maximize your chances of winning each of the first two games (with neither being more important than the other). That’s the percentage play as has been proven by results from two decades of the current format. You don’t do that by dicking around with your Sunday guy in either of the games you need to get in the winners bracket.

 

[Go Budaw]

Remind me who won that regional...

Your flip flop in our situation is ridiculous which is why you are the only person thinking it’s a good idea. Better chance you screw them both up rather than it producing any notable gain. Tantamount to wanting to flip flop Hudson and Sexton in 2016 just because. If you want to throw Plumlee first I’m all for it, depending on exact matchup. Flip flopping Ginn and Small for the first two = sit on the breaker and adjust to the fastball.

Remind me who **** the bed in that regional.

Regarding the switch, I’m not saying it’s 100% the move to make. You are right that it could have adverse effects if the routines are adjusted. All I said was that it could be considered depending on the matchups. I am 100% against throwing Plumlee in Game 1 though. You have to fire your biggest two guns in Games 1 and 2, regardless of which order you choose.

 

[Cat Duck]

Remind me who **** the bed in that regional.

Regarding the switch, I’m not saying it’s 100% the move to make. You are right that it could have adverse effects if the routines are adjusted. All I said was that it could be considered depending on the matchups. I am 100% against throwing Plumlee in Game 1 though. You have to fire your biggest two guns in Games 1 and 2, regardless of which order you choose.

I do not know why they are arguing with you. They are acting as if Small and Ginn are interchangeable, and they are not. Small is markedly better right now. The percentage play is throw your #2 in Game unless there is a HUGE reason not to, like playing Valley. I'd still do it. Throw Small in Game 2. Plumlee in the championship.

Edited: unless they think Ginn is going to get out there and freak out in Game 1, i.e. freshman nerves or something. I can understand wanting to go with experience in the first two games, but that still is against their point, which is that you should not pitch your best 2 guys in the first 2 games. You should, always. The only question is whether you hold your ace for Game 2, which in most cases as a national seed, you do.

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

Thankfully, none of you guys are calling the shots. But it's fun getting so many unique and varied perspectives.

 

[rem101]

SECT - Wed = Weekday guys, then normal rotation for as far as we get
Regional = Small, Ginn, Plumlee - win the first 2 and have your sunday guy go on sunday against their #4 and depleted bullpen (unless we pull a SWAC team like others have said, then Plumlee, small, ginn)
Supers = Regional and hope you don't get to Plumlee

 

[rem101]

I also think it depends on the quality of a 4 seed's number one versus the depth of their staff. Some 4 seeds have a lights out #1 but absolute garbage behind him which is why they are a 4. The other consideration is who will you be facing in game 2? The advantage you have is you will know that before your first pitch as you play the second game.

The rub is you gotta make sure you win game 1 to make this work. If you lose game 1 now you are throwing your #1, #2 and a mid week guy just to try and get to a championship game and everybody is second guessing the hell out of you for trying to save your aces.

Not necessarily. We may pick the 1st game to have more rest between 1 & 2.

 

[LovemesomeCroom]

Plumlee has actually been a little stronger than Ginn recently. Nothing wrong with throwing Plum on Friday in regional play.

 

[MSUDawg25]

Thankfully, none of you guys are calling the shots. But it's fun getting so many unique and varied perspectives.

You don’t know. Maybe I am calling the shots. Maybe I’m coach Lemonis here looking for inspiration. Maybe I’m gonna bring a lazyboy to the dugout to sit in during the SCAR series. What you gonna do about it?

 

[gymdawg.sixpack]

I agree with ALL THIS. Dont stress your pitchers by trying to win a meaningless tournament. But get them all innings just to stay warm. As for regionals, pitch plumlee gm1 vs the 4 seed and use small and ginn to wrap it up.