People can't accept that when you don't have any money it is hard to go shopping!
Lino Mark
- Thread starter MadRU
- Start date
These distributions make sense.i believe the day is coming, which for us should probably be next season, where we only pay 10 guys. We can give non-paid scholarships to 2 or 3 others.
This year we really didn’t play Fall or Ware, and Badalau has been tied to the bench for the most part in B1G play.
If you begin by allocating 2 million for each position, with 1 starter and 1 backup (starter gets 1.25M- 1.5M, backup gets 500k-750k), then you need $10million to have a competitive roster, imo.
That’s fine. But in my opinion it should probably only be cut and dry like this for 3 spots on the roster.
1) Francis (must be paid starter dollars 1.5 M). 500K budgeted for whoever backs him up (whether that’s Lino or J Mike).
2) Center (we have to pay over 2M for this). Then pay Ogbole the back up rate.
3) I want a two way forward who sees the floor well and can handle the ball for starter number 3. In our price range this player won’t be efficient (think Caleb). I don’t care. 1.2 M for this role.
Beyond this, I see it as a flat out competition. We are offering the high end of the “back up” range to several guys who all have a chance to start. Powers 750k, Zrno 750k, Buchanan (closer to $1M probably because he plays multiple positions), Grant I would be offering in similar range as Buchanan but he might not be happy with that. Just looking at his paper numbers a team might offer him 1.3M based on his size. I don’t think personally think he’s worth that because of his defense. I think the goal would be to target - couple additional proven low-major kids to compete with these guys. Maybe keep Dortch as a utility if he’s cheap.
you want everyone to stay and not be recruited over (from hs and portal)? everyone who plays has eligibility left. only way to get better is to get better players. we need better players than almost every one we already have, and that’s just to be a .500 conference team.
Develop Ogbole and Ace Bait into what ? They have 1 year left. They wouldn’t ever be good even if you could keep and develop them for 10 more years. They were brought here for reasons other than their own abilities.
Now here is your problem:
Francis and Lino or Davis - $2m
Center and Ogbole - $2.5m
2 way forward - $1.2m
Buchannon - $1m
Grant - $1m
Zrno - $750k
Powers - $750k
9 players - $9.2m
You are already over budget.
Remove Grant and you are still already over budget.
And you only have 2 upgrades on the roster.
If the budget even $10m then you have $800k total for the "proven low-major kids to compete".
You just cant expect to spread money to all these players (retention or not) and also hope to upgrade the talent.
It’s a goal but not an expectation. Winning record is the expectation, unless people pony up to get some players in here.
Would the players have access to the Glorious Greg Fieldhouse in Al of LaMancha’s fanciful imagination ?
When is the last time this program brought in better players with an S? I'd rather watch kids for 4 years go from 13-20 to 18-15 than watch 9 new guys go 17-15 every year. I've got the NBA for free agents.
I don’t disagree with any of this.
My point was that the budget should be closer to $10 million if we want to compete for a tournament bid next season.
The exact way the money gets divvied up will naturally depend on the exact players we have in each position.
That’s why we can’t keep Grant. We just can’t afford it. We can’t afford to target 3 proven day one starters. We need to focus on bringing in 2 to fix the starting frontcourt and try to find a forward who is versatile and can play multiple positions. That’s our best bet.
The math then works fine because hopefully we’re slightly overestimating everyone on average. Then you have 8 guys we’re paying maybe 7.8 M for - we bring in Jones and Wooton for another couple thousand and then we use whatever leftover scraps we have to keep Dortch, etc. to fill out the roster.
It doesn’t work like that. Everyone else aims to bring in better players every year. Keeping weaker players moves the program in the wrong direction. We’re close to the very bottom already and keeping players while the couple of teams worse than RU upgrade will guarantee RU will finish dead last soon.
Analogy. You have crappy poker hand. Everyone else has the chance to replace weaker cards with better ones and yet you think it’s better to keep the crappy cards ?
The roster stinks. The more upgrades that can be bought with available resources, the better the team will be.
Question for those of you who think we need to add 3 starters to be decent.
What do you think our record would be if we replaced Fall with Steinbach? I think we’d have a lot more wins right now. And he’s only one guy. I’m only presenting this question as a demonstration of the impact one player who does things a team lacks can have in basketball.
What do you think our record would be if we replaced Fall with Steinbach? I think we’d have a lot more wins right now. And he’s only one guy. I’m only presenting this question as a demonstration of the impact one player who does things a team lacks can have in basketball.
I don't watch my poker cards mature and go from a 6 to a 7 to an 8 the longer I see them, they dont improve incrementally, over time if I sit there longer.
Everyone on this roster needs to be upgraded to win big. Everyone. Its RU though, that won't happen, so I'd rather watch kids grow.
Washington is one of the worst teams in the league. You need more than a star to be good, or 2 in our case (remember last season).
They arent one if the worst. They are above the bottom 5. They and Minnesota are better than worst on most nights but not as good as bubble ncaa big 10 schools
this game and the last one vs Minny shows that RU has 4 wins, and 2 in OT at home, vs equally bad teams at the bottom of the B1G, but there is a big gap between 13 and battle for 14th-18th. RU cannot stay within single digits with anyone above us in the B1G, save for 1 or 2 games. The talent is as bad we all feared, and coaching is okay, but can't do much with it. And some here are saying that even more NIL is needed to be competitive. The excuses will continue to pour in. I should be so fortunate to have a job with so many built in excuses to be lousy yet get hall passes.
It's amazing how many people cant comprehend basic math and trying to twist themselves into a pretzel.
I've already posted multiple times that proven portal players (at 12PPG at a high major level, cost at leasr 1.5M in ANY real category and maybe 1M to 1.25M at a discount OR you try more freshman who can develop into pieces you can keep.....
THREE portal starters means 3 playera already better than Francis today IMO.....that's unlikely to impossible to happen with just a 8M budget.....you can find ONE portal player and retain and develop whats here with 8M
You can find TWO players in the front court who have 2 way abilities to score and rebound if you shed Grant but we need those 2 players to average 27 to 30PPG and provide 14 to 15 boards a game.
Francis on a better roster does not get more than 1M. He is a complimentary player who is best suited as a 6th man......just because RU is developing freshman guards in real time like Mark, Powers and Dorian Jones, means we dont need any guards via the portal.....and we dont or cant overpay for Francis.
Francis, Mark, Powers and Jones are the top 4 guards on the roster in any order, depending on the day or game. All 4 (yes Jones included), should be counted on for 10PPG or more next year).....let JMike be the 5th guard, Captain and energy guy....the backcourt because of the youth should be around 4.5M total money spent.
The issue comes down to playmaking needed at the SF, PF and Center position.
What fans are seeing with Grant and Buchanan are players asked to do too much, because they're not supposed to be asked to provide "go to" scoring or rebounding. Neither is tall enough or strong enough to defend most nights against players like Steinback.....we actually didnt even stop Lathan Sommerville, so consider that before going any further.
If you invest in a proven starter at the PF and Center, that doesnt mean we should shed Grant or Buchanan.....we just need them in a role that doesnt expose them to do too much....if you notice Washington's roster invested into Sommerville and he's not overexposed.....still provides 8PTS, but not asked to score 14 and grab 8 boards.....that's Steinbachs role.
That means 2 proven Power 4 starters (12PPG and 6 RPG each) is about an additional 3.5M to 4M.
We are at 8M now with the backcourt and 2 front court starters.
BUT this is where the RU fanbase doesn't seem to understand something called drop-off.....that means you are never going to win, if the drop-off from starter to backup is too obvious.
If you pay Grant money, he gets backup PF money, not 28 minutes a game money.....you offer him what he wants at close to 1M, but just in a reduced role of 16 to 20 MPG. He still provides some abilities, against other backup players.....which ia where Francis thrived and is best suited....Francis as the primary focus of opponents defenses, is not or should not be the primary option.
That means Grant AND Buchanan have real value OFF THE BENCH...but off the bench at a combined 1.25 to 1.5M between the both......OR you find a top freshman PF, who may not be ready, but talented enough to be a 16 to 18MPG player. There are PLENTY of 2026 freshman who may actually cost 750K to 1M and thats fine as well.....they need to be defensive, athletic PFs, not below the rim players.
That brings you to around 10M to 11M.
The roster would look as follows.
Portal Center 2M, 2026 PF/C 1M
Portal PF (2026) Nwuli 1 to 1.5M
Grant/Buchanan 1.5M
Wing (TBD via Portal, Wooten and mix of Dorian Jones.....1.5M to 2M
Backcourt 4.5M to 5M
Portal Center
2026 PF
Grant or Nwuli
Buchanan or Nwuli
Wooten/Jones at SF or 2026 wing or Portal
Powers/Francis
Mark/JMike
Thats 10 players who have either logged B1G minutes OR have playmaking abilities
That leaves RU with players 11, 12 and 13 Nwuli, Zrno Dortch.....all should have a right to compete for time in the rotation....maybe Ware sticks TBD....
The goal is to have the bench 5 to 7 look like this.
Francis PG or JMike
Dorian Jones
Dylan Grant, Chris Nwuli
2026 PF, Dortch
Dortch/Ware
I just dont see a true way to have a solid roster without solid bench minutes.
Keep in mind, Washington was missing 2 players in their top 8 and Sommerville as a complimentary piece, going against Ogbole, Dortch, still scored 8 points. ..we lost by 7.....
I've already posted multiple times that proven portal players (at 12PPG at a high major level, cost at leasr 1.5M in ANY real category and maybe 1M to 1.25M at a discount OR you try more freshman who can develop into pieces you can keep.....
THREE portal starters means 3 playera already better than Francis today IMO.....that's unlikely to impossible to happen with just a 8M budget.....you can find ONE portal player and retain and develop whats here with 8M
You can find TWO players in the front court who have 2 way abilities to score and rebound if you shed Grant but we need those 2 players to average 27 to 30PPG and provide 14 to 15 boards a game.
Francis on a better roster does not get more than 1M. He is a complimentary player who is best suited as a 6th man......just because RU is developing freshman guards in real time like Mark, Powers and Dorian Jones, means we dont need any guards via the portal.....and we dont or cant overpay for Francis.
Francis, Mark, Powers and Jones are the top 4 guards on the roster in any order, depending on the day or game. All 4 (yes Jones included), should be counted on for 10PPG or more next year).....let JMike be the 5th guard, Captain and energy guy....the backcourt because of the youth should be around 4.5M total money spent.
The issue comes down to playmaking needed at the SF, PF and Center position.
What fans are seeing with Grant and Buchanan are players asked to do too much, because they're not supposed to be asked to provide "go to" scoring or rebounding. Neither is tall enough or strong enough to defend most nights against players like Steinback.....we actually didnt even stop Lathan Sommerville, so consider that before going any further.
If you invest in a proven starter at the PF and Center, that doesnt mean we should shed Grant or Buchanan.....we just need them in a role that doesnt expose them to do too much....if you notice Washington's roster invested into Sommerville and he's not overexposed.....still provides 8PTS, but not asked to score 14 and grab 8 boards.....that's Steinbachs role.
That means 2 proven Power 4 starters (12PPG and 6 RPG each) is about an additional 3.5M to 4M.
We are at 8M now with the backcourt and 2 front court starters.
BUT this is where the RU fanbase doesn't seem to understand something called drop-off.....that means you are never going to win, if the drop-off from starter to backup is too obvious.
If you pay Grant money, he gets backup PF money, not 28 minutes a game money.....you offer him what he wants at close to 1M, but just in a reduced role of 16 to 20 MPG. He still provides some abilities, against other backup players.....which ia where Francis thrived and is best suited....Francis as the primary focus of opponents defenses, is not or should not be the primary option.
That means Grant AND Buchanan have real value OFF THE BENCH...but off the bench at a combined 1.25 to 1.5M between the both......OR you find a top freshman PF, who may not be ready, but talented enough to be a 16 to 18MPG player. There are PLENTY of 2026 freshman who may actually cost 750K to 1M and thats fine as well.....they need to be defensive, athletic PFs, not below the rim players.
That brings you to around 10M to 11M.
The roster would look as follows.
Portal Center 2M, 2026 PF/C 1M
Portal PF (2026) Nwuli 1 to 1.5M
Grant/Buchanan 1.5M
Wing (TBD via Portal, Wooten and mix of Dorian Jones.....1.5M to 2M
Backcourt 4.5M to 5M
Portal Center
2026 PF
Grant or Nwuli
Buchanan or Nwuli
Wooten/Jones at SF or 2026 wing or Portal
Powers/Francis
Mark/JMike
Thats 10 players who have either logged B1G minutes OR have playmaking abilities
That leaves RU with players 11, 12 and 13 Nwuli, Zrno Dortch.....all should have a right to compete for time in the rotation....maybe Ware sticks TBD....
The goal is to have the bench 5 to 7 look like this.
Francis PG or JMike
Dorian Jones
Dylan Grant, Chris Nwuli
2026 PF, Dortch
Dortch/Ware
I just dont see a true way to have a solid roster without solid bench minutes.
Keep in mind, Washington was missing 2 players in their top 8 and Sommerville as a complimentary piece, going against Ogbole, Dortch, still scored 8 points. ..we lost by 7.....
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I agree with most of what you said with a few exceptions.
1) I think your saying Tariq is interchangeable with our other guards. Just because his efficiency has been a little off the last couple games doesn’t make that reality. Don’t forget how many 20+ point games he’s had. The rest of our guards have scored double digits on single occasions. I know they are frosh but there’s still a major difference. Powers hasn’t put up more than 5-6 points in while. 3 weeks ago we were calling him the stud. The frosh are very up and down / match up sensitive. Tariq scores in a lot more ways than our other guards, and frankly any guard we’ve had at Rutgers for a while. Bigger portfolio of shot attempt types. That matters a lot when you have a coach like Pike who isn’t a great offensive schemer.
2) I heavily agree with your point about how hard it will be to buy proven scorers in the portal. That said, I’m at the point where I might be willing to swap Grant for a carefully selected defensive player on man to man mid major team that had a decent record. I’m certain we can get a materially better defensive player than him for less money, and the more I see from him, I’m less and less worried about the type of offense we would risk losing. His scoring average is heavily bumped by dominant performances against weak low major teams. Hes scored in double digits 4 times in the last 14 games, but even then - the points he’s scoring are opportunistic as a result of opponents adjusting to prevent other guys from scoring. I think I’m willing to gamble that his offense will be replaceable.
Who are the Top 8 guys you are paying?
Transfer C
Transfer F
Francis
Powers
Mark
Davis
Powers
Buchanan
Also Jones, Wooten, Dortch and fill out the roster still requires minimal money (a couple thousands each)
You are now again over budget with no back up center and Buchanon as the backup "big".
For someone who seems to really enjoy bashing the intelligence of others.....
Here is some "basic math":
$10-$11m > $8m
Your entire post makes little to no sense.
All these posts makes no sense.
Rutgers doesnt have the money.
I'll repeat it since so many fail to understand the basic concept: Rutgers doesnt have the money
Yes, there will be a huge drop off after the top 6-7 players.
It's going to be a huge problem.
That's not some secret high level insight only basketball expects know.
That's the hand Rutgers is dealt though.
S.W.A.I.N thinks JMike banged Shelby's old lady.
Mark is earning it. I still have doubts given his ineptitude from 3. Ideally Powers steps up and is a taller guard that can play along side Mark. But that combination looks better in 2 years than next year, where Pike needs to be at least a bubble team.
I agree we can get by with the backcourt of Mark, Powers and Francis, whatever Jones and Davis can give us. Given pikes loyalty, I’m sure he’d prefer that option.
All of our spend has to be on an experienced Center. That will cost us 3 mil. I bet we go the Euro route, which is scary because I doubt we find a Steinbach. Instead we’d get stuck with a development guy like the Penn St. Big.
Also agreee that Grant and Buchanan are not starters and can not be paid starter money. They would be welcomed back as first forwards off bench.
Nwuli is not a player worth keeping. He’s done nothing all year, and has less than zero offensive game, I’d take my chances on any experienced Wing Forward over him.
I agree we can get by with the backcourt of Mark, Powers and Francis, whatever Jones and Davis can give us. Given pikes loyalty, I’m sure he’d prefer that option.
All of our spend has to be on an experienced Center. That will cost us 3 mil. I bet we go the Euro route, which is scary because I doubt we find a Steinbach. Instead we’d get stuck with a development guy like the Penn St. Big.
Also agreee that Grant and Buchanan are not starters and can not be paid starter money. They would be welcomed back as first forwards off bench.
Nwuli is not a player worth keeping. He’s done nothing all year, and has less than zero offensive game, I’d take my chances on any experienced Wing Forward over him.
We don’t know what the numbers are. Everyone is just guessing.
I personally think the prices our fan base is projecting for Powers / Zrno market value are significantly off. There are just SO many SG in the NCAA that bring their skill sets. I’m not seeing why our competition in the open market would choose these guys out of everyone out there to pay 750K to add to their rosters. Neither is particularly good at defense. Zrno is only a threat to score from 3 (he has no other moves to speak of - 14 non-three baskets on the whole season). And Powers is 30% from 3 and 35.7% overall which is hideous for a two guard. At one point we were going to make the case that his numbers were skewed by his first few games - frosh jitters. But he’s now on a 4 game stretch against mediocre BIG competition where he’s 1 for 8 from 3 and 33.3% overall from the field only averaging 5 points during that stretch. I think their true market values will come in closer to 500k.
I also don’t really see anyone paying Ogbole more than 400K based on his film so we might be able to keep him as our back up big. The key is going to be trying to address our needs with the addition of 2 players and retention rather than 3. Then with whatever is left, take some gambles in the mid major market.
Agreed. I strongly prefer to keep Buchanan over Grant for several reasons:
1) he’ll likely cost less.
2) he’s much more versatile - can play multiple positions.
3) he’s better at D despite what advanced metrics might suggest (it’s not fair to look at that when he’s being asked to play completely out of position at center).
4) he’s a better ball handler and a threat to scorer in more ways than Grant.
I actually agree with much of your end result here (outside the ridiculousness about Sommerville who scored six of his points (2 FG 2 FT) last night being guarded by JMike, Tariq, Lino, and Buchannon), even if the reasoning doesn't always match and I hate discussion about the compensation portion of roster building. The problem is, it seems there is no way we have $11M, and it's more likely the total is around $8M.
I think a realistic possibility could be:
Big Man - 2 M
Tariq - 1.5 M
Versatile Forward - 1.2 M
Buchanan - 800k
Lino - 750k (if he continues at pace)
Zrno - 500K
Powers - 500K
Ogbole - 350K
Jones / Wooton - 200K (combined)
Dortch - 150K
Maybe add another frosh or gamble with any leftover funds if they exist.
I think two starting level adds are the most we can hope for, yeah. I do think, just based on things we hear, Jones/Wooten will cost more since these kids seem to get $200K just for getting out of bed on campus once. I think may need to shift a little of Francis $ to the versatile forward.
Hate trying to guess these values cause I really have no idea, but Francis is currently 10th in the conference in scoring, and of the top 15, none play less minutes and only one shoots a lower % than him overall and from three. Only one has a better A/T ratio. He's at the extreme end of everything as a player, and his defense is bad. I know you like his off ball skill more than I do. Not sure he can be a top two player on a good team though.
Again, the last 4 games vs. the worst four teams in the Big 10, other than us, Francis is 37% from the floor and 25% from three. 1.5 million for him is ridiculous.
While I think we may be (pretty drastically) overestimating the market for players like Powers / Zrno - your data supports my belief that the opposite is true when it comes to proven high major scorers in the portal. Tariq is the only guy on our team averaging over 11 ppg and anyone who thinks we have a good chance of “buying” another one in the open market (even at a massive premium) just isn’t being realistic. There aren’t even 50 11 ppg scorers in any major conference (not even 30 in the Big East). So it’s under 230 total and that includes seniors and guys who will enter the draft. Beyond that - you have to figure a significant number of the returners in this group will stick with their current schools.
In my opinion, it’s really important for a coach like Pike to be able to start with a vision of what he’s trying to do on offense so he can focus on addressing the D. If you let Francis walk it’s going to be next to impossible to do this. Everyone else is inconsistent so he’d be stuck right back in the market for a new cheap low major and hope he gets another TF and not a Dercack. By doing that though, you discourage a Big from choosing us because it becomes much harder to sell a vision of what our offense will be like with a new go to player transferring in.
Ok - then let’s do it your way and feature Grant as our star returner like last year. Let’s see who chooses to transfer into our program even for top dollar. The phrase “money talks” only holds true if our money is the only set of dollars with mouths moving but that’s just not going to be reality. And no A none of the frosh are proven stars - they are up and down with Powers looking good a few games, then Lino, then Zrno. Can’t sell a vision of any of them as go to for an offense style. So it’s all one big question mark again and we can’t focus on D.
Let me add as a stand alone - anyone who thinks we “don’t need” a proven scorer because we’ll get 10-11 ppg from 6 guys through great ball distribution is forgetting who our coach is. Pike has NEVER had more than 3 double digit scorers on a team in a season.
The only time since 2021-22 he even had 3 was in 2023-24 and one of them, J Will, played only 12 games. This strategy does NOT bode well for us.
The only time since 2021-22 he even had 3 was in 2023-24 and one of them, J Will, played only 12 games. This strategy does NOT bode well for us.
I think we’re better than Washington (materially so) outside of Steinbach. We simply had no answer for him on either end.
Don't know about the 11 ppg thing. This year, the top 30 scorers in the conference average just under 33 min per game. Pike even played Dylan and Ace less than that. The year w JWill also had Mag over 9ppg, Derek over 8, and nobody even reached 27 minutes a game. Francis at 27.2 leads this year. So much depends on Pikes haphazard rotations. Get back to 2021 when we had Ron, Geo, Paul, Caleb, and Cliff playing 28-35 minutes and you'll have guys put up points. That team had 8 guys avg 10 minutes. Last year 11 guys, this year the 11th is just under 10. We've been lost deciding who to play and when.
If you look at that 32 minute playing #, we have 5 guys over 11 per 32 and another at 10.7
We appear to have the worst offense in the Big 10.
Not exactly sure the “vision” you want Pike to sell is all that appealing.
Even if Francis returns, the vision probably shouldn’t be “the offense runs through Francis”.
We are in the market for a defensive Big Man and forward. The “vision” (not intended to be a knock on Dylan Grant but simply the best way to express it) is - we run an iso oriented style. We’re looking for a defensive minded player who is going to have an opportunity to “get theirs” in our program despite potentially limited offensive skills if they possess the lone skill of “moving well without the ball”. We’re in the market presumably for a multi-sport type kid who played Lax or soccer in high school. Those types are good at the things Grant does well. It’s not out of the question in my opinion for a forward who did next to nothing on offense for a good team to be able to step into Rutgers offense and replicate Grant’s production if he possesses the skills I’m describing and being used for defense. We’re in the market for a kid who doesnt necessarily have that many offensive moves but is a very good defender. Our system presents a future pay day opportunity for the right type of player who otherwise wouldn’t put up 8-10 ppg and might only play 15 mpg on certain types of teams.
Our offense - is better than most Pike offenses. Him hoping to be better in the halfcourt than this one with a new “star” seems like wishful thinking to me.