Line flipped from RU -2 to ND -1.5
- Thread starter Mr. Gerbz_rivals
- Start date
Not good, you never want it to flip across the 0.
gambling 101
gambling 101
I suppose you could justify this given RU has a better track record vs top teams, yet is more inconsistent.
The same model that spit out RU +3500 ND +5000 is the one that spit out RU -2. The liquid game market adjusted but the less liquid related futures market did not.
Now apply this to other derivative markets and win some money.
Your explanation is simpler, and could well be right. But I suspect it's all about the standard deviation. If you think ND is a better team on average, you bet on ND for the individual game. If you think RU has a fatter tail (RU has beaten 4 ranked opponents in a row, for example), you bet on RU to win the conference. Both can be true at the same time.
With the holds that books usually put on Futures markets, you’re likely putting more thought to it than they are. They are likely just throwing out initial numbers, and moving with the market and any sharp action.
What Erial said, but also a higher standard deviation would not create the effect. What you would need is a higher autocorrelation between performances. If you think this sportsbook is using a model with team-specific autocorrelation factors I have a bridge etc.
They have one of the best freshman’s in the nation so it makes since. Plus when they can shoot 3s they can SHOOT 3s. We need to limit perimeter shots and make those kill us from down low
Senior DPOY on freshman. I like the matchup
I think it makes sense. If ND is hitting their 3s and we have one of our games where we can’t score from the perimeter they win.
Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, I’d give us a better chance to beat Alabama than ND. A team prone to turnovers? Caleb chomping at the bit for an opportunity to take that on. Also - when we apply it our pressure is quite good. ND looks to slow the game down. Their style actually helps what Alabama struggles with in my opinion.
Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, I’d give us a better chance to beat Alabama than ND. A team prone to turnovers? Caleb chomping at the bit for an opportunity to take that on. Also - when we apply it our pressure is quite good. ND looks to slow the game down. Their style actually helps what Alabama struggles with in my opinion.
I’d assume that it’s more a factor of the betting action than any complicated analysis of the teams
in the end, the sports books would rather be flat and just capture the vig than potentially be exposed. For example, if too many people bet on Rutgers, then the line will become more favorable to ND to attract bets to ND and away from Rutgers (and vice Versa) - an interesting article follows.
Sports books being flat
in the end, the sports books would rather be flat and just capture the vig than potentially be exposed. For example, if too many people bet on Rutgers, then the line will become more favorable to ND to attract bets to ND and away from Rutgers (and vice Versa) - an interesting article follows.
Sports books being flat
I think it's just more ND fans and casual fans choosing the name brand school. And because it's first four, there is a lot more betting volume than usual and it's moving the line.
Money line is more indicative here. Lets face it betting public loves the ND name close to St Pats day - this would skew the line. Bookies are more at risk on the money line.
If ND was consistently overrated when lines are determined, you can be sure that experienced gamblers will jump on the arbitrage and take the other side. It's like when people say ND football has tons on fans across the nation who always bet on them and push the line up or down. History would show that ND consistently does not cover the spread. That is false. Gamblers bet with their wallets, not their hearts.
Nah, my point is simply that, just by eyeballing the two teams' results, RU absolutely has a wider tail than ND, and as a result should absolutely be 'favored' to make it to the final four over ND, given that both are super long shots to begin with. IE...you aren't going to make it to the final four playing consistently 'decent' ball (ND - 2 quad 1 wins), but you *maybe could* if you are a decent team that also occasionally goes on very hot streaks (RU 6 quad 1 wins). No one would have to understand statistics to understand that you need to be able to beat quad 1 teams in order to get to the final four.
Maybe because it's first four, there is a higher causal interest in the game beyond experienced gamblers.
The public and fans have little to no impact on a line. Books care about sharp action.
Lines are all over the place. I saw some flip early. But not actually “move” more than .5 once set.
not sure if you saw a actual line “flip” or just two different lines.
either way, I’d happily TAKE points if I find it.
not sure if you saw a actual line “flip” or just two different lines.
either way, I’d happily TAKE points if I find it.
Again, this does not actually make sense unless RU has more correlated results than ND. If the games are independent, it is not possible for RU to simultaneously have a lower chance of winning individual games and a higher chance to win the region. A higher standard deviation just moves all the individual game probabilities closer to 50%.
Maybe I’m not understanding you. Why is correlation between games necessary? Don’t match ups come into play too? I bet Alabama would rather face ND than RU regardless of who wins our game (ND not going to try to turn them over much). Better match up for them. That doesn’t mean ND can’t shoot lights out and beat them or anyone on a given day.
RU regularly plays like crap when we don’t shoot well. When we are hitting shots we can literally beat anyone. We’re one of the toughest teams to predict. I like a match up with any team that struggles to protect the BB because turnovers often translate to easy baskets and RU is at its best when able to put points on the board. It’s for this reason that I would see Alabama as a good potential match up. Have to get past that first game though.
This is where season-long metrics can start to break down, when you start looking at specific games and specific matchups.
It's entirely possible that Notre Dame matches up favorably to Rutgers, but not to the next teams it would face.... whereas Rutgers matches up more favorably in the field of 64/32/16/8 but doesn't match up as well against ND.
When you're just looking at season-long efficiency ratings, all the nuance of playing styles and matchups gets stamped out into a single metric. That works best when you're looking across all games for all teams on average... but when looking at a specific 1v1 matchup, there's more than just efficiency metrics.
It's entirely possible that Notre Dame matches up favorably to Rutgers, but not to the next teams it would face.... whereas Rutgers matches up more favorably in the field of 64/32/16/8 but doesn't match up as well against ND.
When you're just looking at season-long efficiency ratings, all the nuance of playing styles and matchups gets stamped out into a single metric. That works best when you're looking across all games for all teams on average... but when looking at a specific 1v1 matchup, there's more than just efficiency metrics.
Exactly. I see ND as a team we’re going to have a tough time beating if we don’t have a decent shooting day. If they are able to slow the game down and we aren’t making shots there’s a pretty good chance the perimeter defense will break down eventually. It’s happened to us a lot with teams that like to play slow, perimeter games. They aren’t beating us if we’re making shots though. Very tough to call
With Alabama - I see them as a team where we could potentially convert defense into offense and find a way to win even with poor shooting game.
Notre Dame will have more local fan support in the arena in a evenly matched game between teams that don't score a lot of points.
Yes, if you are allowing non-transitive relationships between teams that could do it too.
I think you’d kind of have to in this case. Anyone can certainly shoot lights out on a given day and win - and ND has good shooters. But I’m sure Alabama (with their tendency for turnovers) would prefer to play a team that likes to slow the game down and not apply much pressure.
This game comes down to three simple things: (1) don't let ND shoot 3s, (2) grab boards (no second chances for ND) and (3) avoid long scoring droughts. When Rutgers has lost they didn't control one of these factors. All three have to align for Rutgers.
That’s deceiving with respect to the Alabama comment. Our slow pace is entirely based on our offense. We’re not a very good fast break team and in our halfcourt offense we use up our shot clock - that translates to slow pace.
It’s not because we play cautious defense and prefer to drop back into halfcourt defensive sets. As long as we’re not in foul trouble, we throw in plenty of full court pressure and traps. We look to avoid halfcourt games.
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