Can some of the stats jocks check the work here? #14, above Urban Meyer. Boy, Bob made a big mistake!
Floodies unite!!!!!
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...30/ncaa-football-coaches-overrated-underrated.
Usually, when we talk about a head coach who overachieves or underachieves, we basically mean a coach whose AP poll rankings don't match his program's recruiting rankings.
This is understandable, but unsatisfactory. Part of a coach's job is to recruit. If a program has a lot of talent, that coach succeeded at that part of his job. Losing a game because of a lack of talent is just as bad as losing one for any other reason, unless we're talking about a true underdog that will never be able to land top talent, no matter the coach.
For example, Urban Meyer doesn't get named 2014 Big Ten Coach of the Year for going undefeated in conference play despite QB injuries; the honor goes to Jerry Kill, whose Minnesota finished the regular season 8-4, but 0-3 against ranked teams. OSU's supposed to win, because it has all those recruits. Never mind that Meyer's staff recruited many of those recruits and had been coaching them for three years at that point.
Let's look at another way of judging which coaches overperform or underperform. Bill Connelly used math (explained here, with full rankings for every FBS head coach over the last decade) to figure out which coaches are able to squeeze the most wins (or losses) out of games, based on what actually happened on the field, not on high school scouting or preseason polls or fan emotions.
I think it's a lot more interesting. Here are the top 25 overperformers:
Coach Years Wins difference per year
1 Ken Niumatalolo 8 1.08
2 Bill Snyder 8 0.94
3 Gus Malzahn 4 0.94
4 Dave Christensen 5 0.91
5 Mark Hudspeth 5 0.89
6 Matt Campbell 4 0.81
7 Pat Fitzgerald 10 0.8
8 David Bailiff 9 0.79
9 Rich Brooks 5 0.71
10 DeWayne Walker 4 0.68
11 Tom O'Brien 8 0.66
12 Mack Brown 9 0.66
13 Les Miles 11 0.63
14 Kyle Flood 4 0.58
15 Urban Meyer 10 0.58
16 Gary Pinkel 11 0.57
17 Paul Johnson 11 0.56
18 Frank Solich 11 0.56
19 Rickey Bustle 6 0.54
20 Mark Dantonio 11 0.52
21 Jim McElwain 4 0.51
22 Bo Pelini 7 0.51
23 Turner Gill 6 0.5
24 Gene Chizik 6 0.48
25 Steve Sarkisian 7 0.46
And here's the list you don't want to be on:
Coach Years Wins difference per year
25 Derek Dooley 6 -0.45
24 Bobby Hauck 5 -0.47
23 Greg McMackin 4 -0.47
22 Mario Cristobal 6 -0.48
21 Randy Shannon 4 -0.48
20 Pat Hill 7 -0.5
19 Ron Zook 7 -0.5
18 Curtis Johnson 4 -0.51
17 Mike MacIntyre 6 -0.51
16 Paul Chryst 4 -0.52
15 Norm Chow 4 -0.52
14 Gary Andersen 7 -0.53
13 Bob Toledo 5 -0.53
12 Rich Ellerson 5 -0.54
11 Mark Snyder 5 -0.55
10 Houston Nutt 7 -0.56
9 Dave Wannstedt 6 -0.57
8 Hal Mumme 4 -0.59
7 Doug Martin 9 -0.6
6 Joe Glenn 4 -0.62
5 Phillip Fulmer 4 -0.62
4 Tyrone Willingham 4 -0.86
3 Steve Addazio 5 -0.87
2 Kevin Wilson 5 -0.96
1 Todd Dodge 4 -1.28
Floodies unite!!!!!
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...30/ncaa-football-coaches-overrated-underrated.
Usually, when we talk about a head coach who overachieves or underachieves, we basically mean a coach whose AP poll rankings don't match his program's recruiting rankings.
This is understandable, but unsatisfactory. Part of a coach's job is to recruit. If a program has a lot of talent, that coach succeeded at that part of his job. Losing a game because of a lack of talent is just as bad as losing one for any other reason, unless we're talking about a true underdog that will never be able to land top talent, no matter the coach.
For example, Urban Meyer doesn't get named 2014 Big Ten Coach of the Year for going undefeated in conference play despite QB injuries; the honor goes to Jerry Kill, whose Minnesota finished the regular season 8-4, but 0-3 against ranked teams. OSU's supposed to win, because it has all those recruits. Never mind that Meyer's staff recruited many of those recruits and had been coaching them for three years at that point.
Let's look at another way of judging which coaches overperform or underperform. Bill Connelly used math (explained here, with full rankings for every FBS head coach over the last decade) to figure out which coaches are able to squeeze the most wins (or losses) out of games, based on what actually happened on the field, not on high school scouting or preseason polls or fan emotions.
I think it's a lot more interesting. Here are the top 25 overperformers:
Coach Years Wins difference per year
1 Ken Niumatalolo 8 1.08
2 Bill Snyder 8 0.94
3 Gus Malzahn 4 0.94
4 Dave Christensen 5 0.91
5 Mark Hudspeth 5 0.89
6 Matt Campbell 4 0.81
7 Pat Fitzgerald 10 0.8
8 David Bailiff 9 0.79
9 Rich Brooks 5 0.71
10 DeWayne Walker 4 0.68
11 Tom O'Brien 8 0.66
12 Mack Brown 9 0.66
13 Les Miles 11 0.63
14 Kyle Flood 4 0.58
15 Urban Meyer 10 0.58
16 Gary Pinkel 11 0.57
17 Paul Johnson 11 0.56
18 Frank Solich 11 0.56
19 Rickey Bustle 6 0.54
20 Mark Dantonio 11 0.52
21 Jim McElwain 4 0.51
22 Bo Pelini 7 0.51
23 Turner Gill 6 0.5
24 Gene Chizik 6 0.48
25 Steve Sarkisian 7 0.46
And here's the list you don't want to be on:
Coach Years Wins difference per year
25 Derek Dooley 6 -0.45
24 Bobby Hauck 5 -0.47
23 Greg McMackin 4 -0.47
22 Mario Cristobal 6 -0.48
21 Randy Shannon 4 -0.48
20 Pat Hill 7 -0.5
19 Ron Zook 7 -0.5
18 Curtis Johnson 4 -0.51
17 Mike MacIntyre 6 -0.51
16 Paul Chryst 4 -0.52
15 Norm Chow 4 -0.52
14 Gary Andersen 7 -0.53
13 Bob Toledo 5 -0.53
12 Rich Ellerson 5 -0.54
11 Mark Snyder 5 -0.55
10 Houston Nutt 7 -0.56
9 Dave Wannstedt 6 -0.57
8 Hal Mumme 4 -0.59
7 Doug Martin 9 -0.6
6 Joe Glenn 4 -0.62
5 Phillip Fulmer 4 -0.62
4 Tyrone Willingham 4 -0.86
3 Steve Addazio 5 -0.87
2 Kevin Wilson 5 -0.96
1 Todd Dodge 4 -1.28
