Asmussen is coming into the Derby with 2 horses, Tiztastic and the maiden Publisher. Oddly enough, I'm gonna have Publisher on the bottom half of some of my exotics because he has been outworking Tiztastic by a ton and since Asmussen added the blinkers from Publisher last out, that horse took a big jump forward. He wasn't gonna catch Sandman in his last race, but this horse will get the distance.
His pattern is 17,14,11//11,7,3. Last year as a 2 year old, he was very slow. He began his 3 year old season with matching his best 2 year old performance, then in his second out he moved forward 4 points again. Then they took the blinkers off and he moved forward another 4 points. So, the 3 in his last race makes him an outside contender if things fall just right for him. He had 34 days off between his "7" and the "3" and now he comes into the Derby with 35 days rest, so he's a relatively fresh horse on Derby day. He's had 6 career races and continues to develop. I've spent money on worse animals in the Derby.
The biggest negative for me? Believe it or not its because Irad Ortiz is riding. Now, we both know either Irad or Prat are the two best jockeys in the country. Problem is, in the Derby, Prat has ridden 7 times and moved 5 horses up, in other words, they ran better performance figures in the Derby than their last prep race.
Irad is 0-7 in that category. That can change since he's a great jockey, just hasn't gotten it done yet. A point I have to make is Prat is named as the jockey on Neoequos but IF Baeza draws in Prat is named, and will ride Baeza in the Derby. That would make Baeza very dangerous.
If the spirit moves me, and guys don't start giving me ****, I'll try to do a little analysis similar to this to maybe give some insight as to why a horse may or may not run well. Purely a chance project since all things change once that gate opens. I can't guarantee who will win or even run well, but I can guarantee chaos will ensue.
The last piece I'll do, maybe Thursday or Friday is the individual and herd dynamics of the main contenders/or any horse that one of the forum members would like my thoughts about. Just understand, I'm not going to talk anyone onto a horse or off a horse because people are entitled to wager their own opinions and I've been wrong before. The caveat being I did tell dingle that Journalism looks very tough, but I doubt any horseplayer would disagree.
MEANWHILE PELINI, I WANT YOUR INPUT SO OTHERS THAT READ THIS CAN HAVE AS MUCH INSIGHT AS POSSIBLE. I've been waiting 3 years for you to get heavily involved in this process...make it happen.
(**Edited**)
. Great topic.
