This one makes things so much easier for me.
Not saying I’m gonna win, but Rodriguez was definitely a wildcard for me if somehow the horse could sit off another one and finish…which he hasn’t done yet though.
Fairly long post, so could be a TLDR type read.
I have supreme confidence that Prat will ride Baeza as good as can be ridden, having said that, if you analyze the post he's in, and all the speed inside of him, he's gonna have to be really special to overcome that post.
Citizen Bull, Neoequos, American Promise, Admire Daytona, Journalism, Grande, East Avenue, Coal Battle, Chunk of Gold, Owen Almighty are all gonna ship. With Citizen Bull the fastest of the bunch.
Within 5 stalls, there is speed all around Baeza so if they all break sharp, he is no faster than Coal Battle, Chunk or Owen and he could be forced to run straight for a while before they all move over, all the while the other front runners and the horses in the second flight create distance between them and these outer horses.
Not considering Baeza has faced fields of 11, 6, 6, and 5 so its gonna be like going from 6 man football to 22 man football overnight. Not talking Baeza down here because he is one of the 3-4 fastest in the race and cause I really like Shireffs, but the mentality of that horse is his ability to process individual herd dynamics while he's on the move, and he could get bogged down by having to contend with a lot of sensory issues which will be new to him.
Yet, there's no one better than Sheriffs at getting a young horse ready, methodical as he is. John has brought 4 horses into the Derby and 2 of them have run new tops, and that's never been done by anyone. Add to the fact that Prat has moved up 5 of his 7 Derby mounts and it gets interesting. If Baeza ran a 0 last out, and that's a number good enough to win this, any equal or better number will make him a real threat to win. He's just gonna have to overcome a lot of adversity, even if he breaks really sharp.
Considering the way Journalism got "MUGGED" in the Santa Anita Derby, there's no question he is a much superior animal than Baeza. Baffert had 2 in the race and the horse next to Journalism literally banged him almost into the rail, then reached out to hinder the jockey, this all at the same time as Baffert's other horse just in front was starting to back up. But Journalism showed how good he "could" be, because he lost several lengths in that fray, yet was still good enough to run right by Baeza late in that 9f race. (Watch the overhead of that race.) If you slow it down to 50% or 25% you can see 2 different times the jockey on the 3 horse looks back to see which horse is coming. Baffert is a real piece of work.
I feel bad that Mike Smith lost the mount when Rodriguez scratched. People may not know but Mike has ridden in 29 Derby's, the first one at age 19 and this would have been his 30th. I don't feel bad that Baffert lost an entry.
The 5 horses that have been really outstanding in workouts is Soverignty, Burnham Square, East Avenue, Citizen Bull and Journalism. Early on it looked like a pretty chalky Derby, but now it looks like some real prices have a shot, and that's what we want, right?
I'm just wondering which one of these 20 horses that I'm not playing is gonna bite me in the ***. LOL
Maybe tomorrow, instead of saying what the strengths of all these individual horses are I'll try to post what each horse must avoid to give themselves the best chance. Sometimes a weakness that doesn't appear in the race is more valuable that a good trait that does.
As it stands, I'm probably gonna play Journalism along with 5 others in the exotics. All of them are double digits, although I see now way Soverignty is 12/1, more like 6/1.
My biggest concern with Journalism is jockey Rispoli. This is an awfully big stage for a tremendous jockey who really hasn't been exposed to this much pressure before. He's gonna have to answer an awful lot of questions in 2 minutes.
. Great topic.
. Somebody has to finance the rest of you who do the homework.
