Everyone talks about having to be a top 25 offense and defense to win the title, I think UK sits at 6 and 95 right now, has there ever been a team to get close to the title with those numbers? Also what kind of scores would it take to get the defensive number down to let's say 75?
KENPOM QUESTION
- Thread starter Sparkaces
- Start date
I cant say what scores would be needed to take it to 75.. but I can say, not a whole lot. In two very solid games we dropped our defense metrics almost 40 points. Take a look at what seperates us between the 50th team. Not a whole lot. A few 3s don't go in on the season and we'd be 20 spots higher. One less 3 per game from the opponents and we are like 50 spots higher.
I'm also not very concerned with what we did in November, December, and January.
I think I read on here that a couple of teams didn't start the tournament in the top 25 on defense but by the time they won the title they were in the top 25. So if our defense continues to get better we may be able to get into the top 25. Also, we could also become the first team to not be in the top 25 of both to win. I mean someone has to do it at some point right?
It's important to note:
6 straight wins over Tournament quality teams do wonder for your metrics. When people talk about previous champions had a top 30 offense and top 30 defense--those numbers are AFTER the NCAA tournament.
I think we're a bit tough to fully evaluate. We haven't had a full roster for most of the season. We also had a team full of freshmen that took a while to figure out how to defend--but they looked VERY good defensively vs UT.
Our metrics will be skewed by earlier parts of the season. But if we play GOOD defense over the next month, we can win it all despite finishing outside the top 30 for the season.
6 straight wins over Tournament quality teams do wonder for your metrics. When people talk about previous champions had a top 30 offense and top 30 defense--those numbers are AFTER the NCAA tournament.
I think we're a bit tough to fully evaluate. We haven't had a full roster for most of the season. We also had a team full of freshmen that took a while to figure out how to defend--but they looked VERY good defensively vs UT.
Our metrics will be skewed by earlier parts of the season. But if we play GOOD defense over the next month, we can win it all despite finishing outside the top 30 for the season.
Yes, I have heard Matt Jones talk about the Duke 2015 team, I think they jumped way up on D.
Miami this past 2 years had a top-10 offense and a 95+ defense. Made the Elite 8 and Final Four.
Kentucky can absolutely make it far in the tournament. Can't remember the exact number but Kentucky has a top-12 O and top-50 defense the past month or so. They are clicking at the right time
Miami made the Final Four just last season with a D rating of 99.
San Diego St went to the Final Game just last season with an O rating of 75.
As the poster above said, this is AFTER the Tournament. So going in im sure those ratings were even lower.
San Diego St went to the Final Game just last season with an O rating of 75.
As the poster above said, this is AFTER the Tournament. So going in im sure those ratings were even lower.
Looking at Torvik, we are sitting at 11 in Offense and 50 in defense for the last 30 days. We are improving quickly over that time. That’s basically Kenpom, but can adjust for specific periods of time. Keep playing well and we could be right there.
Here is all you need to know. BEFORE the ncaa tournament starts, any team not ranked in the top 25 of kenpom, top 37th Offensively, top 38th Defensively, and top 45th in SOS have NEVER won the title in the history of kenpom.
I hope we win for obvious reasons, but also so we can destroy this stat
So Miami finished the season at 6 on offense and 99 on defense, that is basically identical to UK now. UCONN was 3 and 7 as the champions last year.
The 95 ranking is based off the entire year. That is irrelevant here. If UK's defense is good enough to hold Tennessee to under 35% shooting, as they did in the last game, and they keep doing that to the opposition, they will keep winning. One defensive category UK is doing well is in blocked shots per game. Ranked 3rd in that category. I also think the #1 ranking in 3pt shooting will go a long way to their success in the tournament.
The John Wall/Cuz team in 2010 was the best team in the country. They shot 35% from three for the season.
In the Elite 8, we went 4-32 (12..5%) from three and lost to WVU.
I HATE relying on threes to win. And yes, I know this team has WAY better shooters than 2010. I get it.
In the Elite 8, we went 4-32 (12..5%) from three and lost to WVU.
I HATE relying on threes to win. And yes, I know this team has WAY better shooters than 2010. I get it.
Well, that is true that 95 is based on the whole season but obviously the TN game is factored into that number is well as Vandy who only scored in the 70's, they have a lot of ground to make up.
Actually, the Wall/Cuz team shot 33% from 3 point land which ranked 227th in the country so they were not a very good 3-point shooting team. Bledsoe was the most reliable 3-point shooter at 38%. That team was built at pushing the ball instead of shooting threes.
Our team doesn't rely on threes although we are very good at threes. We have multiple players that are skilled at making the mid-range shot. We also have the luxury of having several very good 3-point shooters which negates teams playing zone against. The odds that all of our shooters having an off night is very slim...
Our team doesn't rely on threes although we are very good at threes. We have multiple players that are skilled at making the mid-range shot. We also have the luxury of having several very good 3-point shooters which negates teams playing zone against. The odds that all of our shooters having an off night is very slim...
There are no accurate, season-long metrics on this team. Simply because the make-up of the team has been so erratic due to injuries and NCAA inaction. There has never been a team that has had to accommodate the infusion of 3 +7 foot players in the middle of the season. And 2 other starters out with injuries in the middle of the season. A number to describe "the" team? Which aggregation of players make up "the" team.
The thing isn't necessarily the actual numbers but what they mean.
Teams that are very good on one side of the ball and bad on the other just don't do well in the tournament. Bartovik has a page for similar profiles and similar resumes. If you look at the efficiency one, it's not pretty. Teams get bounced rather early.
Having said that, it doesn't necessarily mean we can't buck that trend.
Teams that are very good on one side of the ball and bad on the other just don't do well in the tournament. Bartovik has a page for similar profiles and similar resumes. If you look at the efficiency one, it's not pretty. Teams get bounced rather early.
Having said that, it doesn't necessarily mean we can't buck that trend.
This is a good point - our defensive metrics certainly skew towards early struggles and doesn't allow for a formula that values recent games over older games. I'd be surprised if today we'd give up 82 to Marshall, 88 to St Joseph's, 97 to TexasAM, or even 76 to Lville. But it is what it is
I'd be interested to see what our defensive metrics are, nationally speaking, in our last 10 games.
We had a tendency to give up a lot of points late in games earlier when the game was not in question. This plays a pretty big part in overall efficiency numbers as well.
Technically we've had 3 starters out due to injury at some point.... DJ, Trey and Adou.
We weren't much better second half either. In SEC play, we gave up 1.10 points per possession. That was sixth in the SEC.
If I filter on Bartovik from Jan 6th (start of conference play) to the end, we are 4th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 114th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
We had a two game stretch in conference play where we held teams to below 1.00 per possession. Those two games and away to Auburn were basically the only good games we had on defense the entire conference schedule.
I saw Brandon Ramsey tweeted out that in games vs Quad 1 opponents (minimum of 8), UK has a defensive efficiency of 66th - much better than 114 since Jan. 6
In games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents (minimum of 12), Kentucky is 62nd overall in defensive efficiency
He grabbed both of those from Bart Torvik
I guess that's good to know we play a little bit better vs the good teams. I wonder how much Auburn and Mississippi games (held them to under 0.90) shews the results a bit.
Two of our better defensive games were against top 30 teams, Auburn and Kansas.