Andrew Slater has chimed in and says not so fast my friend. Said he would bet against Bill Self on this one.
Kansas - Trilly
- Thread starter Jhayden0069
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Andrew Slater has chimed in and says not so fast my friend. Said he would bet against Bill Self on this one.
Slater has whiffed a couple times lately. I agree with him tho. I think bethea to KU and harper to Rutgers.
Pre-paid Visa debit cards loaded with thousands of dollars are hard to track.
Agree to disagree. No one is selling me on the notion that all the big schools were paying everybody but Ky was getting them all for free. Noy buying it. Hell there is even a member of this board that says he has first hand knowledge that even Rupp paid players himself. Going to a high profile school like Ky, Duke, Kansas, Etc does help some, but if you are NBA caliber, you will go no matter where you play.
Fresno St
Butler
Ga Tech
BYU
Weber St
UNLV
Georgetown
Ok St
Creighton
Cal Procidence
And a large list of other schools far from basketball prominence all had lottery picks during Cals
best years. My point is, most of the guys Cal put in the NBA were going anyway. Maybe not all, but most were.
From 2007 or 8 to 2015, Cal was known as the one and done king. If you were a 5 star Freshman that wanted to play in the NBA, you came to play under Cal. He was the first dude that allowed these kids to come in and play 30 mpg their Freshman seasons. They didn't come to UK or anywhere else to sit on the bench, and wait their turn. Duke and K Started following suit around 2014. So no, nobody was gonna take a measly *** check to attend Fresno State, when they had millions waiting on them after 1 season under Calipari at either Memphis or Kentucky.
After Cal landed Rose and Tyreke Evans, and then made them into lottery picks after 1 season, that changed everything for him and his recruiting pitch. Cal picked up where he left off after coming to UK. Obviously, recruiting these high caliber kids became easier here than at Memphis. Anything else you have to say is just revisionist history.
Rose and Evans were ranked 5th in their classes. They were likely lottery picks no matter where they went. No?
You don't think rose was a lottery pick if he had played for any other coach than Cal? Come on man.
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True, but Kansas IS catching up, and very much “tied” to/with Kentucky:
Here are some recent (cherry-picked) numbers:
Fall of 1968 to present (over the past 55 seasons):
Kansas:
1400-435, 1400/1835
= 0.762942
Win% = 76.29%
Kentucky:
1388-433, 1388/1821
= 0.762218
Win% = 76.22%
—
At the end of the 82-83 season, Kentucky had a 16-1, all-time, head-to-head lead on Kansas. KU coach Ted Owens (1964-83) went 1-12 vs Kentucky. Since then, head-to-head, KU leads UK, barely: 10 games to 8 (…so about even).
ALSO, since summer of 1983:
Nattys: tied at 3 ‘a piece
FFs: KU10, UK9
EEs: UK18, KU16
Reg Season Conf Champs: KU38, UK18
Conf. Tourney Champs: UK19, KU15
Ncaa Tourneys: KU38, UK33 (including UK’s vacated ‘88 tourney)
KU has 97 more wins since summer of ‘83 (That’s still including UK’s two, vacated, 1988 tourney wins.)
—
Kansas connections to UK coaching:
UK coach Rupp was a Kansan, a Jayhawk graduate, and was coached by legendary “Father of Coaching” (medical doctor and basketball tactician), Dr. Phog Allen.
BCG was taught by current KU coach Self.
UK coach Tigert was raised in Kansas City.
UK coach Brumage was a Kansan.
UK coach Tuttle was educated in Kansas.
UK coach Eddie Sutton was a Kansan.
UK coach Cal said he got his “big break” at KU. (And, of course, he and Ellen met in Lawrence.)
—
Misc. numbers:
Since beginning of 2015-16 season:
KU vs ranked teams: 61-36
UK vs ranked teams: 28-34
—
Tourney wins, 1982-2023:
UK: 88
KU: 94
(Both UNC and Duke have a few more tourney wins than either of us, during that span.)
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Both ranked 5th in their classes, but drafted 1st and 4th overall regardless of class in 1 season. Do I think they could have done that in 1 year no matter which college they attended? No. This happened in a time when the top rated incoming Freshman weren't starting and playing 30 mpg. This was in 2007 and 2008.
$$$$$ got to him. What kind of boosters does Kansas have down there damn they’re getting everybody now…..
This isn't worth arguing about man, but that's simply not true. MOST of the top freshmen were playing close to 30' per game.
There were some, but there weren't as many one and dones back then. And in both the 2008 and 2009 NBA drafts, Cal had the first one and done drafted.
In all seriousness it does point out what I've called out in the past that Kansas has been playing catch-up for a long time. Thanks for sharing deets.
I don't know who the very first college freshman to be drafted was. I know Corey Magette was one and done in 1999, but I'm sure he wasn't the first. As far as what's called the one and done era that started in 2006, I found this...I guess Tyrus Thomas and Shawne Williams were the first for the one and done era.
2006 – 2 (Tyrus Thomas* – 4th, Shawne Williams – 17th)
2007 – 8 (Greg Oden – 1st, Kevin Durant – 2nd, Mike Conley Jr. – 4th, Brandon Wright – 8th, Spencer Hawes – 10th, Thaddeus Young – 12th, Javaris Crittenton – 19th, Daequan Cook – 21st)
2008 – 12 (Derrick Rose – 1st, Michael Beasley – 2nd, O.J. Mayo – 3rd, Kevin Love – 5th, Eric Gordon – 7th, Jerryd Bayless – 11th, Anthony Randolph – 14th, J.J. Hickson – 19th, Kosta Koufos – 23rd, Donte Green – 28th, DeAndre Jordan – 35th, Bill Walker – 47th)
2009 – 4 (Tyreke Evans – 4th, DeMar DeRozan – 9th, Jrue Holiday – 17th, Byron Mullens – 24th, undrafted: Nate Miles
I'd start with 2007. 2006 Tyrus Thomas was a 3 star, and I thought he came out of the class of 2004. Oden and Durant were bona-fide one and dones in 2007.
This actually got me thinking. In the modern era i think UK in particular is running a clear 4th behind Duke, UNC and Kansas.
Frankly i’ve been underwhelmed in general with the basketball program during most of Mitch Barnhardts tenure as our AD.
So on my downtime at work to occupy myself i crunched the numbers just since Mitch Barnhardt took over as AD in summer of 2002.
Kansas:
Overall 614-141 .813 Tourney: 51-18 .739
2 Titles 5 Final Fours 10 E8 0 Missed
UNC
Overall 553-202 .732 Tourney 50-14 .781
3 Titles 6 Final Fours 9 E8 4 Missed
Duke
Overall 592-150 .780 Tourney 44-17 .721
2 Titles 4 Final Fours 7 E8 0 Missed
Kentucky
Overall 558-180 .756 Tourney 39-14 .736
1 Title 4 Final Fours 9 E8 3 Missed Tourneys
What surprises me is we’re not as far behind Duke during that time as i thought we would be.
UNC has had a great run of post season success that’s carrying them over the last 20 years, because they really haven’t been that great during the regular season compared to the others. They’ve had a lot of bad or mediocre seasons.
Kentucky is kind of in the same boat but is really being carried by 1 really strong 6 year stretch.
There’s a strong argument for Kansas as the top program of the last 20 years. You could make a case for UNC and Uconn as well however. Duke and UK are top 5 but neither has a case for #1.
Edit: Oh yeah, i counted 2020 as a missed tourney for UNC because if there had been a tourney they weren’t getting in. The other 3 were locks.
That's exactly what happened. We know because at least two national writers devoted their entire career, including dumpster diving, to finding something. Yet they found nothing. Those are just the ones open about their pursuit; there were surely more. Catching cal cheating would've been the biggest sports story of the decade.
We didn't need to pay. No one was better at player development and getting guys drafted. They gave us a year and we have them a lottery draft spot.
We didn't need to cheat
Player development? Having a player on campus for 4 months isn’t player development. I don’t think Kansas developed Andrew Wiggins, Joel embiid wasn’t supposed to be a one and done but clearly the skill was there so I don’t really count that either. Just recently Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun, Devonte Graham. Guys that no big school wanted and Kansas turned 2 into first round picks and graham just got 46 million. I think players like that tell more of the development story.
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KenPom’s Strength of Schedule rankings, each year, since 2002:
Yr. Uk. Ku
2023: 42. 1
2022: 30. 1
2021: 15. 24
2020: 66. 2
2019: 19. 1
2018: 12. 2
2017: 19. 8
2016: 44. 3
2015: 26. 1
2014: 5. 1
2013: 80. 40
2012: 26. 1
2011: 18. 32
2010: 55. 16
2009: 69. 37
2008: 57. 14
2007: 1. 59
2006: 9. 64
2005: 21. 8
2004. 16. 11
2003: 4. 2
2002: 3. 10
Even mighty KenPom may have super skewed methodology, so take all of the above numbers with a big grain of salt. We all know that weekly AP and Coaches polls/rankings are often total bullsh**, but still influence seeding, tourney results, future poll rankings, fancy computer rankings, and ultimately win-loss numbers. Plus, we have to remember that, out of 360 teams, any ranking within the top-70 would still be ranked within the top-20% of all schedules. So comparing the differences between KU’s and UK’s schedules above is really nit-picking of two, top schedules and maybe useless…but it’s at least something to look at to know you’re at least in the ballpark of playing good opponents.
In Tubby’s final-six UK seasons (2002-2007), his strength-of-schedule was great (top-10 in four of those six seasons, top-5 in three of those six, and top-21 in six of those six), and, of course, he’d won the SEC reg season in 5 of his 10 UK seasons. And Tubby did not bump-up his year-end strength-of-schedule mainly at the very end of seasons, in the big tourney (as Cal has sometimes done), by advancing to a whole lot of Elite Eights and Final Fours. No, Tubby was inclined to schedule tougher teams (and I realize the SEC had some super-great teams back then), and his record sometimes (often) suffered from the tough schedule, but I liked that he didn’t mind scheduling tough opponents. I hate it, for him, that, a lot of times, fans only looked at his iffy win-loss numbers and not his strength-of-schedule. Now, I do realize there were other factors in his leaving, like recruiting success and maybe his choice of assistant coaches…but…a coach will build team confidence and a better program by regularly beating, or at least scheduling, highly ranked teams, if possible. Plus, fans demand that THEIR team plays only the very best, most exciting opponents.
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Agree Kansas didn't develop him that's why he never reached full potential. He was supposed to be generational instead he is a rotation type guy.
By contrast UK took several guys that were off the radar and turned them into top draft picks, many of whom are now NBA stars. Too many to bother listing in fact.
I’d love to hear a couple of your off the radar guys you developed into top draft picks!
Andrew Wiggins started an all star game and was a key piece on a championship team. Don’t think that’s a rotation type guy LOL. We must have developed Joel Embiid right I guess.
Let Kansas get Elite freshman. Self has sucked & never one anything significant with elite freshman. His strength has always been what he's doing now. He wins with veterans & average players.
The problem when anyone decides which years to look at, UK always gets screwed. UNC and Duke fans always want to start in 1980 for instance.
When you (KU) chose 1968, it picks up KU's era with Ted Owens (ignoring the Dick Harp era) while Kentucky loses our 66 run, and several other seasons of good basketball (ranked as high as #1 in 62 and 64). UK has been consistently good since the 1940s, other than the dip in 88-91 and 05-09.
I'm not saying your numbers don't mean anything, it just undermines UK no matter when other teams 'cherry pick'.
Two off the top of my head are Tyler herro and shai Alexander. There's a laundry list but I'm not wasting my time with the likes of you.
One all star game for what was supposedly the next transcendent talent? You just proved my point
I find it very self serving for Kansas fans to cherry pick a date such as the early 1980s to show how "even" Kentucky and Kansas are. Well, that does leave out the entire tenure of one of the 2-3 best coaches ever (Rupp) and half of Joe B.'s tenure (the best half by far).
So yeah, you guys are about even when you leave out Rupp and Hall's 5 titles, 2 runners-up, 9 Final 4s, etc
LOL
So yeah, you guys are about even when you leave out Rupp and Hall's 5 titles, 2 runners-up, 9 Final 4s, etc
LOL
Ok, then Conference championships PRIOR (!) to 1984:
Kansas: 37
Kentucky: 35
—
Final Fours before 1984:
Kansas: 6
Kentucky: 8
—
Total Championships or Runners-Up:
Kentucky: 12
Kansas: 10
—
All I’m saying is: You can look at both UK & KU’s ENTIRE program histories, NOT cherry-pick for KU whatsoEVer — and they’ll STILL be EXTREMELY close in total accomplishments, so go ahead and add-in all of Rupp and Hall’s accomplishments if you want.
Your 1948 and 1949 “Final Four” accomplishments required you to win just ONE game (yes, one) in each of those little, eight-team, “NCAA tournaments”, to earn a “Final Four”.
UK has only ONE more Final Four than KU (17-16).
And, before the mid- to late-1970s, the NCAA Tournament used to be geographically based (a huge advantage for UCLA) with no seeding (many uneven match-ups), and only one team per conference (leaving amazing teams out, and crowning iffy “Champions” in too-small “Championship” tournaments). You could have had an absolutely stacked conference where its 2nd place team (not allowed in the tourney) would normally throttle most other teams in the bracket. I’m glad the system is much better now, and that Final Fours and Championships mean more, because more of the top teams compete.
Our two programs are very close. Many champions are just very lucky. That’s why you have to look at absolutely everything about the top programs to see who’s the best. KU has a slight edge over UK over the past 55 years (in wins and win% and tourney wins), and the case seems to be getting stronger for KU, during “modern” years.
I’m not saying KU is a better program than UK, although those arguments could easily be made (e.g. “Kansas will always be Kentucky’s daddy. ‘You’re welcome’ for Rupp, plus all your other Kansas-linked coaches.”).
I’m not making the argument that KU is equal to UK. I’m just saying they are getting more equal.
A whole lot of subjectivity will always be involved when trying to decide which various program accomplishments should weigh the most, so I seriously think fans of both programs should learn to respect each others’ histories.
Through looking at basketball statistics and studying program histories, I’ve gained a tremendous amount of respect for Kentucky basketball. (Gross)
So I choose to have the viewpoint that it’s really cool how close the programs are (using the method of how I, personally, weigh all the accomplishments).
And no one knows how successful, or not, KU and UK will be in the future, so let’s just all enjoy the many accomplishments both programs have NOW, and let the teams help settle the debates on the court.
—
Here’s another stat — not fully researched/not quite accurate yet:
Since fall of 2015, the number of Rivals 5-star players for each program:
Kentucky: 34
Kansas: 8
Auburn: 6
Duke: 30
Villanova: 3
Unc: 9
Michigan St: 5
Michigan: 3
Gonzaga: ?
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Summer of 2019, you started an interesting thread, where you had updated a 2012 article where ESPN had tried to create a point system, to try to find the #1 program of all time (and rank the rest), using 1939-present data (including conference regular-season and conference tournament championships, as well as giving points for how far teams advance in the ncaa tournament).
5 points for Regular season conference title
3 points for a conference tourney title
1 point for NCAAT appearance
5 points for Sweet 16 loss
10 points for Elite 8 loss
15 points for Final 4 loss
20 points for NCAA title game loss
25 points for NCAA title
1 point for NIT title
I like that ESPN point system. (It hurts KU some, but I do think it’s fair to not give KU many points for their all-too-many round-of-32 losses (always as a highly ranked team). (Under Self, it seems KU is either in the Elite Eight or only wins one, measly, tournament game — there is no in-between. To be fair, it seems KU is always missing at least one crucial player, usually a highly ranked big man, come tournament time. And, like UK, typically, it seems whoever beats KU ultimately ends up in the Final Four.)
Anyway, the few people who replied to your thread in 2019 were in agreement that it seemed like a pretty good point system. So, today, I’ve looked at your 1939-2019 point totals, plus updated them to the present.
UK is still very comfortably in the all-time lead, thanks to your many (and well-deserved) Elite Eight appearances and championships. Second place, however, has flipped (over the past four seasons), from UNC (in 2nd) to now KU.
Ultimately, points or not, your choice of who the #1 program is all boils down to how heavily you weigh certain criteria, but these types of point systems can help us all try to make up our own minds.
Also, I think a major issue of this system is to ignore programs’ successes prior to the the 1939 NCAA tournament.
And, as I’ve explained above, Ncaa tournament results, between the early 1940s and early 1980s, don’t carry the same weight (at all), to ME (personally), as “modern” (expanded field, and seeded) tourney results.
Anyway, following are the revised rankings/points, including the past four seasons = all the new points added to dlh331’s 2019 totals (based on ESPN’s 2012 point system):
But first: summer of 2019 results (1939*-2019), all-time* best programs:
Kentucky: 1,014 points
UNC: 829
Kansas: 808
UCLA: 721
Duke: 656
Uconn: 439
(Louisville was 7th, with 428 points, and Indiana was 8th, with 415 points.)
—
Now (finally), the up-to-date numbers/points, from 1939 to the end of the 2022-23 season:
(And again, bad luck could randomly happen to ANY of these programs in the coming years…but these are TODAY’S results.)
Best Programs of All-Time (1939-2023), using the 2012 ESPN article/point system:
UK: 1,021 (+7 recent points, over past 4 seasons)
KU: 853 (+45 recent points)
UNC: 851 (+22 pts)
UCLA: 751 (+30 pts)
Duke: 680 (+24 pts)
Uconn: 466 (+ 27 pts)
And it wouldn’t be alright to completely ignore these programs’ accomplishments prior to 1939:
Uconn: nothing of note accomplished, prior to 1951
Ucla: nothing of note, prior to 1950
Duke: first, real accomplishment was their 1938 conf tourn champ (and four more of those in the 1940s)
Unc: 6 conf. reg. season champs, prior to 1939, as well as 6 conf tournament champs
Kansas: 20 conf reg seas champs, prior to 1939. KU’s conference didn’t have conference tourney champs before 1939.
Kentucky: 7 conf reg seas champs, prior to 1939, and also 3 conf tourn champs
—
I’m not here to proclaim Kansas as the #1 program, all-time. That’s a hard argue (but, with our coaching tree, plus, all of our wins [both after and before 1939], only one less Final Four than UK, and two fewer 1st or 2nd place finishes than UK, it’s still remotely possible.) No, as a Kansas fan, I just genuinely want to know the gap between Kansas and everyone else above KU, using a somewhat fair point system.
dlh331’s summer 2019 thread, where he updated ESPN’s “2012: Best Bball Programs of All-Time” using ESPN point system
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KU fan, thanks for your informative posts. I do think that system is fair because it includes all aspects of a WHOLE season for any respective team. I have always steered a bit clear of counting just how a team does in the NCAAT.
For instance, I have always "valued" UK's 2010 record of 35-3, #2 AP ranking, double SEC champs (but Elite 8 loser) over say, our 2014 NCAAT title game loser (29-11, won neither SEC title, unranked, etc).
Again, thanks for your work. I am impressed.
For instance, I have always "valued" UK's 2010 record of 35-3, #2 AP ranking, double SEC champs (but Elite 8 loser) over say, our 2014 NCAAT title game loser (29-11, won neither SEC title, unranked, etc).
Again, thanks for your work. I am impressed.
You’re welcome.
I’ve actually lurked here since 2013 or 2014. And… back when you made your 2019 post about the ESPN article, I screenshot it & saved it/kept your data. Today, I was very surprised to accidentally run across it, so I thought it’d be good to share it again, updated a little. Your numbers helped.
Respect to UK’s history.
(And I think you guys will beat us in November. UK looked way smoother than KU did, in summer games.)
Thanks for the post as well as the other guys research. It is well thought out. I will quibble with this. The NIT was not as big as the NCAA tournament by the late 40s. The NCAA generally had all the conference champions, which would make those wins more important than (hopefully) beating a couple teams that barely make the tournament. For instance, UK fans like to think the '46 NIT is equivalent to the NCAA, but the teams were those 2nd best teams in the various conferences or just seemingly random teams even.
I don't even know how it works sometimes. UK had a 34-3 record in 47 and didn't play in a tournament. 28-2 in 1946 so it's odd how basketball worked back then.
dlh331’s mention of how good 2010 UK was got me thinking about how great 2010 KU was. And, like it or not, 2010 Duke was statistically great too.
That 2010 KU loss to Northern Iowa STILL haunts KU fans. Always will. KU was SO deep & talented — second-highest-rated (KenPom) KU team since 2002. Champ Duke’s rating was even higher, though. I wish KU, Duke and Kentucky coulda all played each other that season, to see how they stacked up. KU was 33-3, with eight wins over ranked teams. Eight of KU’s 2010 players ultimately at least sniffed an NBA roster, plus, there was one OTHER 5-star player who DIDN’T, plus, an additional two who ended up becoming future KU starters.
In that 2010 tournament, we ran into a Northern Iowa buzzsaw (your typical, poised & extremely well-coach Missouri Valley team) — a team who did JUST enough to take advantage of our 15 turnovers and 0-for-11 three-pt shooting from two of our starters. We lost by 2. Our defeat was sealed with 37 seconds left to play, with one of THE dumbest/most exciting shots in tourney history (imo). Up only one, with the clock winding down, UNI went on a fast break, BUT suddenly pulled-up for a 3-point attempt …instead of a layup. Swish. Game. Sad Jayhawks:
20-sec. youtube clip: The UNI 3 vs KU: “You can’t be SERIOUS with that shot!!!”
Years later, the guy who hit that gutsy UNI shot, Ali Farokhmanesh — just for fun — went to a KU game to interview & good-naturedly troll KU fans. It’s a funny video/interview clip:
Here’s Ali Farokhmanesh hiding, then revealing, his identity to KU fans. There’s a skipable, 20 second intro, then boring conversation for 40 more seconds, so…if I were you, I’d just skip right ahead to exactly the one-minute-mark, and play it. It’s pretty funny when each KU fan finds out that HE’S the player (who made that shot and dashed their dreams).
Below:
(The small number in parentheses = the # of victories over ranked teams that season)
(The three *** marks were used just to visually separate UK from KU info)
KenPom team scores, ranking all Kentucky and Kansas teams, 2002-2023:
***36.91 2015 uk.(8) Coach CAL
35.21 2008 ku (5) KU CHAMPS
***32.59 2012 uk. (10) CAL CHAMPS
31.85 2010 ku (8)
30.23 2020 ku (4, short season)
29.67 2016 ku (12)(Ulis was far better and more in control than future NPOY Frank Mason in AllenFH that game)(And I’m not sure why UK players suddenly & mysteriously began fouling KU players too much toward the end
Sorry
***29.18 2003 uk (12) TUBBY
28.99 2002 ku. (9) ROY Williams
28.62 2003 ku. (7) ROY Williams
28.38 2011 ku (5)
27.81 2007 ku (5)
***27.72 2017 uk (6) CAL
***27.57 2019 uk (7) CAL
27.49 2022 ku. (8) CHAMPS
27.45 2017 ku. (6)
26.91 2012 ku (7)
***26.54 2010 uk (7) CAL
***25.82 2011 uk (8) CAL
***25.72 2022 uk. (3) CAL
25.23 2013 ku (5)
***25.14 2016 uk. (3) CAL
24.60 2014 ku (7)
***24.10 2005 uk (4) TUBBY
23.83 2009 ku (3)
23.49 2018 ku (8)
***23.35 2004 uk (6) TUBBY
23.22 2006 ku (3)
23.08 2005 ku (4)
22.85 2023 ku (7)
22.72 2015 ku (10)
***22.55 2014 uk (5) CAL
***22.21 2002 uk (2) TUBBY
***21.73 2007 uk (0, but nation’s hardest schedule) TUBBY
21.57 2019 ku (8, mostly early, then ku lost 2 starters)
20.89 2004 ku (2, but made E8)
***20.44 2018 uk. (2) CAL
19.98 2021 ku (8)(That same ‘21 roster came back and won the title the next season, so ‘21 KU was good, but got humiliated by the gigantic & quick ‘21 usc team)
***17.60 2020 uk(4) CAL (short season)
***17.40 2023 uk. (2) CAL
***17.13 2006 uk (4) TUBBY
***14.97 2021 uk. (1) CAL
***14.62 2009 uk (1) BCG
***13.25 2013 uk. (2) CAL
***10.01 2008 uk (2) BCG
Following are KenPom’s statistically best team scores (any top team, 2002-23)(combined offense&defense scores), which are greatly affected by strength-of-schedule, and which are combined from a whole season’s worth of data, so being bad early in the season could be something really hard for a team to overcome (statistically), even for a team who’s improved greatly and is fantastic by season’s end…so take these numbers & rankings with a grain of salt, and let’s not pretend KenPom’s methodology is perfect. His methodology is a fancy-guesswork conversation starter.
So here it is:
OVERALL, BEST KENPOM TEAMS (2002-23):
36.91 2015 Kentucky ***
36.48 2021 Gonzaga
35.21 2008 Kansas
34.22 2019 Virginia
34.19 2002 Duke
33.87 2021 Baylor (easily beat 2021 Gonzaga [above], and won the B12 by 5 gms)
33.76 2018 Nova (amazing offensive team)
33.72 2015 Wisconsin
33.47 2011 Ohio State
33.29 2010 Duke (‘10 KU+UK also gr8!)
32.92 2013 Louisville (ahead of ‘12 uk?)
32.85 2019 Gonzaga
32.77 2005 UNC
32.68 2005 Illinois
32.59 2012 Kentucky (which beat Bill Self’s 9th-best KenPom KU team, and it was the 11th-best KU team since the 2001-2002 season, however, low statistics or not, that KU team beat 7 ranked teams, was super outstanding defensively, and had an All-American…just very challenged offensively).
—
NEW DATA EDIT:
How likely would it be for either UK or KU to become champs based solely on last season’s final kenpom ranking?
Last season’s final KenPom, UK finished 27th and KU 9th.
So there’s hope, for Kentucky this coming season, because, just two years-ago, 2022 KU went from ranked 27th (in 2021’s final kenpom) to winning it all in 2022.
But how common is that big of a kenpom jump?
Turns out (from info below), that only 20% (four) of the past-20 champions were worse than kenpom top-25 (his final ranking) the prior season.
Below: Biggest rises in kenpom, from previous season’s final kenpom ranking to a title the next season: (…measured by number of kenpom ranking spots jumped up ….from previous season to a title)
Of course, with the new transfer portal rules, lots of turnover is starting to happen, so huge kenpom jumps might become more frequent, not to mention those few teams, like UK, who can still get all the very top HS players, plus top transfers, all at once.
2023 champ uconn (1st in 2023 kenpom: 29.86pts, jumped up from 22nd in 2022’s final kenpom: 18.55pts)(jumped up 21 spots to win it all)
2022 ku (3rd: 27.49, jumped up from 27th in 2021: 19.98)(won it after being 27th the season before).
2021 bay (2nd: 33.87, up from 3rd in 2020: 25.49)
2020 - no champ
2019 uva (1st: 34.22, up from 2nd in 2018: 29.53)
2018 nova (1st: 33.76, up from 2nd in 2017: 29.88)
2017 unc (3rd: 28.22, down from 2nd in 2016: 29.82)
2016 nova (1st: 32.01, up from 5th in 2015: 30.65)
2015 duke (3rd: 32.48, up from 8th in 2014: 24.25)
2014 uconn (15th: 22.13, up from 49th in 2013: 14.05)(So here we see it’s at least possible to be ranked as low as kenpom 49th one year, then win it all the next…but that’s a rare, big jump)
2013 uL (1st: 32.92, up from 17th in 2012: 20.67)
2012 uk (1st: 32.59, up from 7th in 2011: 25.82)
2011 uconn (10th: 23.93, up from 51st in 2010: 15.19)(again, uconn, with the huge jump — this time from kenpom 51st to champ the next season)
2010 duke (1st: 33.29, up from 10th in 2009: 24.31)
2009 unc (1st: 31.14, up from 3rd in 2008: 30.22)
2008 ku (1st: 35.21, up from 5th in 2007: 27.81)
2007 fla (2nd: 30.81, down from 1st in 2006: 28.28)
2006 fla (1st: 28.28, up from 10th in 2005: 23.93)
2005 unc (1st: 32.77, up from 11th in 2004: 23.23)
2004 uconn (2nd: 28.30, up from 22nd in 2003: 19.54)
2003 cuse (8th: 23.28, up from 56th in 2002: 12.61)(biggest jump of past 20 tourneys = this: Syracuse’s jump from 56th in 2002 to champs in 2003)
So you can see: twelve of the past-20 champions (60%) finished in the top-eleven of final kenpom, during the previous season. 16 of 20 champs (80%) finished the prior season in the kenpom top 25. (Who didn’t? 2022 KU [ranked 27th], the 2011&14 Uconn teams [49th&51st], and 2003 syracuse [56th])(next lowest was 2004 uconn, 22nd) Six of 20 champs didn’t finish in the kenpom top 20. Three of 20 champs didn’t finish in the top 30 or top 40 (of kenpom).
—
Now for the very different, but great, question as to the validity of the early NIT vs NCAA tournaments question (above)…yeah, it gets kinda murky/confusing trying to figure out the true strength and value of those early tournaments. (I guess there was a great UK team, or two, who didn’t compete in some NCAA or NIT tournaments. Same with KU.)
My whole thing is: if the number of tournament teams is too small — in a game where a large component is luck — how can truly great teams be left out, and a true champion be crowned?
That 2010 KU loss to Northern Iowa STILL haunts KU fans. Always will. KU was SO deep & talented — second-highest-rated (KenPom) KU team since 2002. Champ Duke’s rating was even higher, though. I wish KU, Duke and Kentucky coulda all played each other that season, to see how they stacked up. KU was 33-3, with eight wins over ranked teams. Eight of KU’s 2010 players ultimately at least sniffed an NBA roster, plus, there was one OTHER 5-star player who DIDN’T, plus, an additional two who ended up becoming future KU starters.
In that 2010 tournament, we ran into a Northern Iowa buzzsaw (your typical, poised & extremely well-coach Missouri Valley team) — a team who did JUST enough to take advantage of our 15 turnovers and 0-for-11 three-pt shooting from two of our starters. We lost by 2. Our defeat was sealed with 37 seconds left to play, with one of THE dumbest/most exciting shots in tourney history (imo). Up only one, with the clock winding down, UNI went on a fast break, BUT suddenly pulled-up for a 3-point attempt …instead of a layup. Swish. Game. Sad Jayhawks:
20-sec. youtube clip: The UNI 3 vs KU: “You can’t be SERIOUS with that shot!!!”
Years later, the guy who hit that gutsy UNI shot, Ali Farokhmanesh — just for fun — went to a KU game to interview & good-naturedly troll KU fans. It’s a funny video/interview clip:
Here’s Ali Farokhmanesh hiding, then revealing, his identity to KU fans. There’s a skipable, 20 second intro, then boring conversation for 40 more seconds, so…if I were you, I’d just skip right ahead to exactly the one-minute-mark, and play it. It’s pretty funny when each KU fan finds out that HE’S the player (who made that shot and dashed their dreams).
Below:
(The small number in parentheses = the # of victories over ranked teams that season)
(The three *** marks were used just to visually separate UK from KU info)
KenPom team scores, ranking all Kentucky and Kansas teams, 2002-2023:
***36.91 2015 uk.(8) Coach CAL
35.21 2008 ku (5) KU CHAMPS
***32.59 2012 uk. (10) CAL CHAMPS
31.85 2010 ku (8)
30.23 2020 ku (4, short season)
29.67 2016 ku (12)(Ulis was far better and more in control than future NPOY Frank Mason in AllenFH that game)(And I’m not sure why UK players suddenly & mysteriously began fouling KU players too much toward the end
Sorry***29.18 2003 uk (12) TUBBY
28.99 2002 ku. (9) ROY Williams
28.62 2003 ku. (7) ROY Williams
28.38 2011 ku (5)
27.81 2007 ku (5)
***27.72 2017 uk (6) CAL
***27.57 2019 uk (7) CAL
27.49 2022 ku. (8) CHAMPS
27.45 2017 ku. (6)
26.91 2012 ku (7)
***26.54 2010 uk (7) CAL
***25.82 2011 uk (8) CAL
***25.72 2022 uk. (3) CAL
25.23 2013 ku (5)
***25.14 2016 uk. (3) CAL
24.60 2014 ku (7)
***24.10 2005 uk (4) TUBBY
23.83 2009 ku (3)
23.49 2018 ku (8)
***23.35 2004 uk (6) TUBBY
23.22 2006 ku (3)
23.08 2005 ku (4)
22.85 2023 ku (7)
22.72 2015 ku (10)
***22.55 2014 uk (5) CAL
***22.21 2002 uk (2) TUBBY
***21.73 2007 uk (0, but nation’s hardest schedule) TUBBY
21.57 2019 ku (8, mostly early, then ku lost 2 starters)
20.89 2004 ku (2, but made E8)
***20.44 2018 uk. (2) CAL
19.98 2021 ku (8)(That same ‘21 roster came back and won the title the next season, so ‘21 KU was good, but got humiliated by the gigantic & quick ‘21 usc team)
***17.60 2020 uk(4) CAL (short season)
***17.40 2023 uk. (2) CAL
***17.13 2006 uk (4) TUBBY
***14.97 2021 uk. (1) CAL
***14.62 2009 uk (1) BCG
***13.25 2013 uk. (2) CAL
***10.01 2008 uk (2) BCG
Following are KenPom’s statistically best team scores (any top team, 2002-23)(combined offense&defense scores), which are greatly affected by strength-of-schedule, and which are combined from a whole season’s worth of data, so being bad early in the season could be something really hard for a team to overcome (statistically), even for a team who’s improved greatly and is fantastic by season’s end…so take these numbers & rankings with a grain of salt, and let’s not pretend KenPom’s methodology is perfect. His methodology is a fancy-guesswork conversation starter.
So here it is:
OVERALL, BEST KENPOM TEAMS (2002-23):
36.91 2015 Kentucky ***
36.48 2021 Gonzaga
35.21 2008 Kansas
34.22 2019 Virginia
34.19 2002 Duke
33.87 2021 Baylor (easily beat 2021 Gonzaga [above], and won the B12 by 5 gms)
33.76 2018 Nova (amazing offensive team)
33.72 2015 Wisconsin
33.47 2011 Ohio State
33.29 2010 Duke (‘10 KU+UK also gr8!)
32.92 2013 Louisville (ahead of ‘12 uk?)
32.85 2019 Gonzaga
32.77 2005 UNC
32.68 2005 Illinois
32.59 2012 Kentucky (which beat Bill Self’s 9th-best KenPom KU team, and it was the 11th-best KU team since the 2001-2002 season, however, low statistics or not, that KU team beat 7 ranked teams, was super outstanding defensively, and had an All-American…just very challenged offensively).
—
NEW DATA EDIT:
How likely would it be for either UK or KU to become champs based solely on last season’s final kenpom ranking?
Last season’s final KenPom, UK finished 27th and KU 9th.
So there’s hope, for Kentucky this coming season, because, just two years-ago, 2022 KU went from ranked 27th (in 2021’s final kenpom) to winning it all in 2022.
But how common is that big of a kenpom jump?
Turns out (from info below), that only 20% (four) of the past-20 champions were worse than kenpom top-25 (his final ranking) the prior season.
Below: Biggest rises in kenpom, from previous season’s final kenpom ranking to a title the next season: (…measured by number of kenpom ranking spots jumped up ….from previous season to a title)
Of course, with the new transfer portal rules, lots of turnover is starting to happen, so huge kenpom jumps might become more frequent, not to mention those few teams, like UK, who can still get all the very top HS players, plus top transfers, all at once.
2023 champ uconn (1st in 2023 kenpom: 29.86pts, jumped up from 22nd in 2022’s final kenpom: 18.55pts)(jumped up 21 spots to win it all)
2022 ku (3rd: 27.49, jumped up from 27th in 2021: 19.98)(won it after being 27th the season before).
2021 bay (2nd: 33.87, up from 3rd in 2020: 25.49)
2020 - no champ
2019 uva (1st: 34.22, up from 2nd in 2018: 29.53)
2018 nova (1st: 33.76, up from 2nd in 2017: 29.88)
2017 unc (3rd: 28.22, down from 2nd in 2016: 29.82)
2016 nova (1st: 32.01, up from 5th in 2015: 30.65)
2015 duke (3rd: 32.48, up from 8th in 2014: 24.25)
2014 uconn (15th: 22.13, up from 49th in 2013: 14.05)(So here we see it’s at least possible to be ranked as low as kenpom 49th one year, then win it all the next…but that’s a rare, big jump)
2013 uL (1st: 32.92, up from 17th in 2012: 20.67)
2012 uk (1st: 32.59, up from 7th in 2011: 25.82)
2011 uconn (10th: 23.93, up from 51st in 2010: 15.19)(again, uconn, with the huge jump — this time from kenpom 51st to champ the next season)
2010 duke (1st: 33.29, up from 10th in 2009: 24.31)
2009 unc (1st: 31.14, up from 3rd in 2008: 30.22)
2008 ku (1st: 35.21, up from 5th in 2007: 27.81)
2007 fla (2nd: 30.81, down from 1st in 2006: 28.28)
2006 fla (1st: 28.28, up from 10th in 2005: 23.93)
2005 unc (1st: 32.77, up from 11th in 2004: 23.23)
2004 uconn (2nd: 28.30, up from 22nd in 2003: 19.54)
2003 cuse (8th: 23.28, up from 56th in 2002: 12.61)(biggest jump of past 20 tourneys = this: Syracuse’s jump from 56th in 2002 to champs in 2003)
So you can see: twelve of the past-20 champions (60%) finished in the top-eleven of final kenpom, during the previous season. 16 of 20 champs (80%) finished the prior season in the kenpom top 25. (Who didn’t? 2022 KU [ranked 27th], the 2011&14 Uconn teams [49th&51st], and 2003 syracuse [56th])(next lowest was 2004 uconn, 22nd) Six of 20 champs didn’t finish in the kenpom top 20. Three of 20 champs didn’t finish in the top 30 or top 40 (of kenpom).
—
Now for the very different, but great, question as to the validity of the early NIT vs NCAA tournaments question (above)…yeah, it gets kinda murky/confusing trying to figure out the true strength and value of those early tournaments. (I guess there was a great UK team, or two, who didn’t compete in some NCAA or NIT tournaments. Same with KU.)
My whole thing is: if the number of tournament teams is too small — in a game where a large component is luck — how can truly great teams be left out, and a true champion be crowned?
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There was a lot of smoke around AD's recruitment at the time. Here's a little secret, the NCAA doesn't want any of their big money makers to be punished these days because it takes money out of their pockets. Hell, Zion ended up living in a mansion while in college and the NCAA allowed Duke to conduct their own internal investigation, which of course Duke said they couldn't uncover anything shady with that situation.
Remember the FBI trials on the play for pay schemes in college BB? A financial investment advisor from Pittsburgh named Marty Blazer admitted in court that he paid FOOTBALL players from major universities like Alabama, Notre Dame and Michigan. What was the NCAA's response? Oh well, what's done is done and we don't care to look into that.
The NCAA doesn't care as long as the big money keeps flowing in.