Just going to leave this here...

[bulldogbaja]

https://www.wlbt.com/2020/03/25/mis...-measures-against-coronavirus-us-study-finds/

 

[dorndawg]

Always on message

 

[57stratdawg]

im worried about MS. Over weight, older population, limited medical resources. Not much leadership so far. Sounds like a bad combination.

[TWEET]1242582356499857409[/TWEET]

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Interesting. I've been home other than essential needs since 3/14 and I'm in MS, but I have read others on here talking about their area not taking it seriously. They had a well attended auction in the Tupelo area just last weekend, which seem pretty unbelievable.

 

[TBone.sixpack]

Dirty South representin

 

[ronpolk]

The gov may not be forcing people to stay home but people are certainly staying home. My morning commute that normally takes 45 minutes takes me about 15 now. Not that downtown Jackson is ever confused with Times Square but it’s pretty empty right now.

 

[MadDawg.sixpack]

Yep, you're like a broken record. If you used than broken record to slit your wrists.

 

[aTotal360]

The furniture market was bustling about a week ago. Shoulder to shoulder with people breathing on one another.

 

[dorndawg]

That make you feel better, champ? Let it all out.

 

[msstate7]

im worried about MS. Over weight, older population, limited medical resources. Not much leadership so far. Sounds like a bad combination.

[TWEET]1242582356499857409[/TWEET]

New York City has a population of over 8 million in an area around 500 sq miles. Mississippi has a population of less than 3 million in the whole state. I don't think comparing how it spread in NY to us is that valid.

 

[My Bru]

New York City has a population of over 8 million in an area around 500 sq miles. Mississippi has a population of less than 3 million in the whole state. I don't think comparing how it spread in NY to us is that valid.

The point is that per capita it's more widespread here. It's not a perfect comparison because state lines are arbitrary (should probably use metro areas), but it's at least valid.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

Well, furniture is definitely worth dying over/killing others over. Let's mark that essential.***

 

[JML105]

New York City has a population of over 8 million in an area around 500 sq miles. Mississippi has a population of less than 3 million in the whole state. I don't think comparing how it spread in NY to us is that valid.

It's comparing it to NY state.

Either way, it is an apple to apple comparison since it's using ppm. With that said, I would say that we are doing a worse job since our population density is less. One caveat would be that we are just coming off Spring break in which a ton of families traveled out of state to more populated areas.

 

[AlSwearengen]

Small town MS (Collins) thinks we are overreacting, the government is trying to kill people off, or they are distracting us from something.

I’m not too worried about catching it here b/c no one that lives around here goes anywhere (except maybe to their meth dealer’s house) and there is no reason for anyone outside the area to come here.

 

[johnson86-1]

The point is that per capita it's more widespread here. It's not a perfect comparison because state lines are arbitrary (should probably use metro areas), but it's at least valid.

It's more widespread than New York was a week ago but there is no reason to expect our spread to be as fast as New York's. We will continue to have more cases, but it's a lot easier for most of our population to carry out day to day activities without a lot of interaction with other people. Even for apartments, most of ours are lowrise where people walk up and down stairs rather than get on an elevator.

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Could it be that more people are getting tested in Mississippi per capita?

 

[Len2003]

Our proximity to New Orleans scares me.

 

[codeDawg]

New York City has a population of over 8 million in an area around 500 sq miles. Mississippi has a population of less than 3 million in the whole state. I don't think comparing how it spread in NY to us is that valid.

First of all, this is a highly contagious novel virus that spreads very easily from human to human. Early estimates are that an infected person spreads the virus to 2.5 people. That doesn't sound too bad, but if that number stays true, exponential math says one person can be the source to spread the disease to almost 1,000,000 people in 12 weeks time. (2.5^12).

What we do know is that that rate of transmission will be different in different places. NYC has a different population density than Rochester, NY than Caledonia, MS. The rate of spread is much slower, but will still stand up over the long term relative to our hospital capacity.

Let's take a city like Columbus. Today we may have 4 infected. Let's assume because of the low density of of the city, we use a factor of 1 transmission per person on average (some will be 2, some will be 0).

Okay, so in week 4 we only have 32. That's pretty manageable. Week 8 that becomes 512 though, and if there is a 10% hospitalization rate, that's 25 NEW hospitalizations the week we hit 512. How much stress is that on Baptist? How many ventilators do they have?

Then it starts to get real. If the rate of infection continues, week 12 is about 8,000 infected and 409 NEW hospitalizations.

The next week is basically peak infection for Columbus because most people will have been sick already and herd immunity starts to apply. People will continue to get sick and need hospitalizations but it won't spread as easily because the virus has fewer chances to spread to new hosts and infect the next person down the line.

This model is napkin math and there are a lot reasons why the infection rate will slow as the disease progresses, but you can see that even with conservative estimates it goes from not a big deal to a huge deal very quickly. We can't stop it with what we have today, so all this social distancing is about buying time. It's about not letting it go from 512 to 8,000 in 4 weeks until we can get hospitals ready, develop medication to treat the symptoms, and hopefully develop short term and long term vaccines.

TLDR; It's going to spread more slowly in MS, but the more we can push it out the better chance we have of treating the people who need critical treatment when we get there.

 

[johnson86-1]

It's more widespread than New York was a week ago but there is no reason to expect our spread to be as fast as New York's. We will continue to have more cases, but it's a lot easier for most of our population to carry out day to day activities without a lot of interaction with other people. Even for apartments, most of ours are lowrise where people walk up and down stairs rather than get on an elevator.

This is still probably too early and maybe the data too incomplete to get really excited about, but according to MSDH, it looks like we could possibly already be on a plateau if not decline based on number of cases becoming symptomatic each day.

Look at the chart titled "Reported COVID-19 Cases by Date of Onset through March 24, 2020*, Mississippi". https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html

Looks like we've gone 35, 27, 26 for March 15th, 16th, and 17th. Looks like the 18th will probably be at least a small spike back up when the data comes in.

 

[ronpolk]

First of all, this is a highly contagious novel virus that spreads very easily from human to human. Early estimates are that an infected person spreads the virus to 2.5 people. That doesn't sound too bad, but if that number stays true, exponential math says one person can be the source to spread the disease to almost 1,000,000 people in 12 weeks time. (2.5^12).

What we do know is that that rate of transmission will be different in different places. NYC has a different population density than Rochester, NY than Caledonia, MS. The rate of spread is much slower, but will still stand up over the long term relative to our hospital capacity.

Let's take a city like Columbus. Today we may have 4 infected. Let's assume because of the low density of of the city, we use a factor of 1 transmission per person on average (some will be 2, some will be 0).

Okay, so in week 4 we only have 32. That's pretty manageable. Week 8 that becomes 512 though, and if there is a 10% hospitalization rate, that's 25 NEW hospitalizations the week we hit 512. How much stress is that on Baptist? How many ventilators do they have?

Then it starts to get real. If the rate of infection continues, week 12 is about 8,000 infected and 409 NEW hospitalizations.

The next week is basically peak infection for Columbus because most people will have been sick already and herd immunity starts to apply. People will continue to get sick and need hospitalizations but it won't spread as easily because the virus has fewer chances to spread to new hosts and infect the next person down the line.

This model is napkin math and there are a lot reasons why the infection rate will slow as the disease progresses, but you can see that even with conservative estimates it goes from not a big deal to a huge deal very quickly. We can't stop it with what we have today, so all this social distancing is about buying time. It's about not letting it go from 512 to 8,000 in 4 weeks until we can get hospitals ready, develop medication to treat the symptoms, and hopefully develop short term and long term vaccines.

TLDR; It's going to spread more slowly in MS, but the more we can push it out the better chance we have of treating the people who need critical treatment when we get there.

Not all 512 will still be dealing with symptoms by week 8 though. You may have a total of 512 over an 8 week period but a good portion of those were early and no longer showing symptoms.

 

[johnson86-1]

Our proximity to New Orleans scares me.

Yup. Going to be a ton of New Orleans people that come over to their weekend homes in Bay St. Louis and Pass Christian. Also a decent number of people that commute back and forth b/w New Orleans and Hancock and Harrison Counties, although most of those are probalby the type of workers that can telecommute.

Going to make it hard for Hancock County and Harrison County to avoid.