JoMo: What I don't get

[Dawgzilla]

There is no program in the country that tells a coach hey, we will give you 5-10 years to IMPLEMENT your system, get the players you want and then try to win (hell Vanderbilt doesn't allow it these days).

I don't think Moorhead was asking for time to implement his system, either. I'm not trying to read anyone's mind or guess what transpired between Cohen and Moorhead, but JoMo openly talked about winning championships, and how he used the talent on this current roster as a selling point to some of the assistants he hired. Maybe he said something completely different to Cohen during his interviews, but his public statements were that he could adapt his offense to fit the strengths of this current team. I have never heard him say that he needs time to get in the players he needs and to install his offense. Quite the opposite in fact.


I don't know why it hasn't worked, but I've got to think Moorhead is as surprised as anyone at the results so far in SEC play.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Again Strike you want to pick one stat to analyze a defense thats fine. I'm pointing on stats too... stats you don't like.

Its like in baseball, there is WAR, VORP, and many other stats. Which one means the most.

When facing conference foes ONLY: state doesn't rank inside the top 10 in any defensive category (total, pass, run, or scoring)
When facing all teams on the schedule: state only ranks inside the top 5 in one (total and thats 5th)

Also if your looking at comparing to Alabama great Defense.. a quick look:
2011- never gave up 28
2012- gave it up one time to Manziel
2015- 1 time
2016- 1 time
2017- 0

State's ELITE defense will give up 28 at least 2 times this year.. likely 3

What we may do is irrelevant as we have been discussing where we are right now!! Right now we have been playing elite level. The DEFI adjusts for all of those conference only stats you want to keep bringing up. Top 5 in the country, INCLUDING the stat you only want to use.

Your skipping some games. 2012 they gave 28 to Georgia as well. Skipped 2013 altogether when it happened 3 times. 2014 Bama was 6th in the country and 8th in conference only games so I’m with you on whether they were elite. 2015 it happened 2 times. 2016 it happened 3 times. How did you miss all of those games?

 

[Chris Mannix]

So what are we saying here? First, that our defense is just kind of good and not really elite? Second, that we have to give this guy all the time he needs?

If you really think either of those two things then you either a troll or a moron. This man was brought in here to win, all coaches are judged on one thing winning. In the words of Jay Rock “win, win, win, win 17 everything else.

We have to let him get his players, that is a such a ******** argument. The bill of goods that was sold was that this man was enough of an offensive guru to take the players we did have on offense, and build an offense that showcases their stengths. I was fine with him using the next two years to bring in his people, while also using what we have here now to win. Some of you are acting like you are just ok with a complete a total rebuild, I though he was adding another floor onto a well built house, not burning the son of ***** down.

 

[philduckworth]

I don't think Moorhead was asking for time to implement his system, either. I'm not trying to read anyone's mind or guess what transpired between Cohen and Moorhead, but JoMo openly talked about winning championships, and how he used the talent on this current roster as a selling point to some of the assistants he hired. Maybe he said something completely different to Cohen during his interviews, but his public statements were that he could adapt his offense to fit the strengths of this current team. I have never heard him say that he needs time to get in the players he needs and to install his offense. Quite the opposite in fact.


I don't know why it hasn't worked, but I've got to think Moorhead is as surprised as anyone at the results so far in SEC play.

Right, it's not like we are Arkansas or a team that is changing from the Wishbone to the Air Raid. There was supposed to be a lot of carry over from Mullen's system to Moorheads. The difference was supposed to be more RPO stuff and taking a few more shots down the field. What we have seen is complete ineptness and complete lack of creativity in the run game except against AU where he introduced a new wrinkle but then took it out vs LSU.

 

[ShrubDog]

Again state thought they were elite coming into the season. Go find one sec team the last 10 years that had zero playmakers at WR and TE... and didn't have a heisman type talent in the backfield. There isn't one... and state is in that very same boat this year. Very good (8-9 wins) but not elite.

Making stuff up now. I don’t think there is a MSU fan or player on the planet who thought we were going to be elite. There is only about 5 elite teams in the country and we will never be one.

Tell us something we dont know already, we have no WR or TE. And how many teams have heisman RB’s? Listen to yourself.

 

[ShrubDog]

We can disagree then. I expected a 9-3 year. 8-4 was possible.

Right now 8-4 is still on the table as possible, 7-5 is too.

I think some around here expected 11-1. I read it on here, I heard it on radio shows. Simply saying had the expectation been 9-3 or 8-4, wouldn't be such the outrage.

So you expected a 9-3 season w JoMo and a 9-3 w DM. Wow troll away

 

[o_HuntDawg]

Strike, I left off the years where I thought Bama didn’t have an elite defense, that’s why those years are missing. I also left off sec championship games and national playoff games since it’s obvious state isn’t going there to compare.

But you can look at the top 3 elite defenses in the country in each and every year for the past 10 if you want. They likely never gave up more than 28 more than 2 times and state is a shoe in to do tha: and it will probably happen 3 times

again we are splitting hairs between very good and elite. I just don’t see them as elite nor do most of
the numbers

 

[Pilgrimdawg]

Pretty sure this is just someone who decided to create an account and troll the hell out of this board today.

Definitely a troll and not a very good one. Here is a tip for you Mr. Troll. Use the word “we” and not “they”. Your sentences are not structured as if you are “one of us”.

 

[o_HuntDawg]

I expected 9-3 with Mullen and again since I was not high on he JoMo hire I expected a bit of a drop off which has happened

And non elite teams in the sec usually go 9-3 or 8-4... state finished 19 in the country last season. If things go right and finish the season strong will finish right around there this one.

if they tank all bets are off

and the this man was brought here to win. This man isn’t near the coach Mullen is and to thjnk that is nuts.. this man isn’t in Mullen’s league so expect a drop off. Also this man wasn’t on top of the wish list despite what people may tell you. Many coaches that we thought would have interest pulled out leaving us with him.

 

[ShrubDog]

Once again you think you are an elite poster.

 

[peewee.sixpack]

This is just demonstrably false.

We ran the ball 37 times and had 24 pass attempts total against LSU.

Eight of those pass attempts were on our final drive of the game, which started with 2:29 left in the game. That drive also had one rush attempt.

Which means that for the first 57+ minutes of the game, we had 36 rushes and only 16 pass attempts. So for the majority of the game, we basically ran 70% of the time.

Break it down further and you see that we threw 12 times in the fourth quarter. Half of our entire pass attempts for the entire game came in the fourth.

Which shows that Moorhead's game plan was most certainly not "attack LSU's secondary."

Moorhead's approach has certainly been questionable but let's at least get our facts right when discussing things.

Running the same delayed QB draw isn't quite attacking with a running game.

 

[peewee.sixpack]

Again strike we can agree to disagree... we can show stats that show both. In my opinion an elite defense can consistently stop what the other team wants to do, create havoc and turnovers. LSU the second half of the game did exactly what they wanted to do, so did Kentucky.

The numbers suggest that there are better teams in the conference than they are when playing conf foes. They also create zero turnovers.

and to the person that thinks Kylin Hill is heisman material... geez... he wasn't even 5 star recruit. If you had a draft of backs this season I'm sure there would be a gazllion different opinions, but I seriously doubt Hill would go in the top 3 and probably not the top 5

You are a troll and highly delusional if you don't believe Hill is the real deal. Go watch the all-star game where Hill showed out and made Akers look like a 3 star recruit (and I am the biggest Akers fan on this board).

 

[Shamoan]

sad part, some people agreed with him.

 

[FQDawg]

Running the same delayed QB draw isn't quite attacking with a running game.

It certainly wasn't great play calling (or reads by Fitz), but it certainly wasn't attacking LSU's secondary, either.

 

[Dawgzilla]

He didn't actually take that wrinkle out against LSU, it just wasn't as effective. We motioned Hill and Williams our of the slot on several plays against LSU. We ran one jet sweep with Hill, but Fitz didn't hand it to him and just ran up the middle with it. Even when Hill stayed in the backfield, one of our most effective plays was that sweep option with Hill to move the linebackers quite effectively....but Fitzgerald just kept the ball every time.

 

[WutheringDawg]

A couple of things just because this is quite a rant. No one ever asked for 5-10 years for Moorhead to implement his system.

I keep hearing 18 STARTERS! - 9 of them were on defense so who cares, they're awesome. Four of those returning starters are on the line, they've been up and down with one monster blow up (Florida, Jesus Christ six sacks). Three are from the nations 113th ranked passing attack, and then you have Fitz and the RBs. I'll be the first to admit that the handling of the running backs has been jacked up and that's on Moorhead, but Fitz was a nobody that we stole from Middle Tennessee State and has two years under Mullen and one under Moorhead. The guy passed for 31 yards per game in high school and got the Mullen treatment with success and then back to in 2018. Correct, the only difference is the coach, but it's more because the guy that made him work is in Gainsville.

Fitz is a one of a kind quarterback that cannot do what most quarterbacks can. And when you have four seasons of practice and two seasons of game play to develop a rapport with a quarterback you're going to be more successful than the guy who comes in and gets to see him in practice and really has to learn on the fly about what he can and cannot do in the SEC, yeah he's failed miserably because he probably thought that there were basic football 101 things that a QB should know because he's a starter in the SEC. I see reasons for concern, and I'm disappointed in the way that the season has gone, but I'm just saying that success with Nick Fitzgerald as your QB. It sucks that this transition happened this year, but did and here we are. The second half of the season will continue to be a barometer of Moorhead's ability to adapt. Just a quick asside - there is plenty of stuff to complain about without doing the mental gymnastics required to convince yourself that we did anything but run the hell out of the ball vs. LSU. The game ended 65/35 run, but take out the last drive of meaningless gotta pass it because why not, the first 57 minutes of the game was closer to 70/30 run. I don't think that I would describe that as our offensive weakness attacking their strength - did we generate a creative and effective rush strategy? no, but we definitely ran the ball.


And on your flip side, you're really sticking it to Moorhead and John Cohen by taking money out of the pockets of the "hardworking small business owners" in Starkville who are as you say, "are on the verge of collapse."

 

[philduckworth]

He didn't actually take that wrinkle out against LSU, it just wasn't as effective. We motioned Hill and Williams our of the slot on several plays against LSU. We ran one jet sweep with Hill, but Fitz didn't hand it to him and just ran up the middle with it. Even when Hill stayed in the backfield, one of our most effective plays was that sweep option with Hill to move the linebackers quite effectively....but Fitzgerald just kept the ball every time.

Ok, I didn't see as much motion. What I did see was only 8 carries for Kylin with a 5.2 avg and then only 6 carries for Aeris with a 4.7 avg. At some point, you would think a smart coach would just call a play for the RB and run the damn play.

 

[blacklistedbully]

I think the, "fewest sacks surrendered" stat some like to tout as evidence our line was really good is most likely inflated quite a bit by the relative lack of down-field passes we attempted and the fact we ran the ball more than all but UGA and AU.

We had the lowest yds/attempt average in the SEC and the most INT's thrown. Some of those INT's may well have been sacks instead.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

I think the, "fewest sacks surrendered" stat some like to tout as evidence our line was really good is most likely inflated quite a bit by the relative lack of down-field passes we attempted and the fact we ran the ball more than all but UGA and AU.

We had the lowest yds/attempt average in the SEC and the most INT's thrown. Some of those INT's may well have been sacks instead.

No. Our sack rate was rated 16th in country and the adjusted metrics on offensive line had us 7th in the country on sack rate

 

[blacklistedbully]

1st in SEC for sacks surrendered, but also last for yds/attempt and last in INT's.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/conferences/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/year/2017/id/8

 

[Strike.sixpack]

1st in SEC for sacks surrendered, but also last for yds/attempt and last in INT's.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/conferences/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/year/2017/id/8

And that is what’s adjusted out into a rate not just a pure number. That’s what the advanced adjusted metrics do. And it also adjusts for your opponent as well. Even breaks it down into standard downs and passing downs. We rated #7 nationally in adjusted sack rate last year. Your theory is incorrect

 

[TNT.sixpack]

The fact is, so many of us have our minds made up. Some say the season and coach/team have been a bust. Some say, we can still meet reasonable expectations with 7-8 wins. The fact is, we'll all have our answer in about 5 weeks (maybe before then). This season now squarely rides on Texas A&M and Arkansas. I don't even want to think about Ole Miss. Lose to A&M or Arkansas, and we're in trouble and many on this board will be correct when they claim the season has been a bust. I personally (and I'm a very reasonable fan who NEVER gets too optimistic, but I admit I was this year for the first time in a VERY long time) feel that we're very possibly going to lose to Texas A&M. In fact, based on what I've seen from our team and from the games I've watched of A&M, I'm expecting it. I also have HUGE concerns about Arkansas at this point. But the bottom line is, some on this board will be able to look back in about 5 weeks and say, "see? I was right.....".

 

[Dawgzilla]

It surprises me that we don't seem to have any basic, straight up running plays. I've been bitching about the lack of short yardage formations all season, but we also don't seem to have any straight RB handoffs that don't include some kind of option (QB run, pass, or both).

Kylin didn't have many touches, but he was an option on an awful lot of plays, either as a handoff or standing out there for a screen pass. Fitz has always been a ball hog, meaning when in doubt he keeps it. I think there is an awful lot of doubt in his mind in this offense.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

It surprises me that we don't seem to have any basic, straight up running plays. I've been bitching about the lack of short yardage formations all season, but we also don't seem to have any straight RB handoffs that don't include some kind of option (QB run, pass, or both).

Kylin didn't have many touches, but he was an option on an awful lot of plays, either as a handoff or standing out there for a screen pass. Fitz has always been a ball hog, meaning when in doubt he keeps it. I think there is an awful lot of doubt in his mind in this offense.

You had me until you said Fitz has always been a ball hog. Aeris (236) and Kylin (78) had 314 carriers last year to Fitz’s 162 (which is almost the same amount as Dak carried the ball in 2015). It’s also 33 carries fewer than he had in 2016. They got the ball 2/3 of the time last year.

Dak kept the ball 210 times to JRobs 190 in 2014. Fitz is on pace for 226 attempts this season, way above last season

 

[WutheringDawg]

Your parenthetical are a little confusing but I think to his point and one that I've made recently. It seems that Fitz keeps more when the pressure is on or when we're in a close game. In 2016 he out carried the number one back by 60 carries. Fitz with 195, Williams 137, and somehow (please shield your eyes) Shumpert and Hollaway combined for another 100 carries. If you take out USA, where I think Fitz had one run it's basically 50/50 Fitz vs the field. And that was a season where it felt like the offense was always struggling to get going and we were behind a lot.

Last year it seems like Fitz let it flow better as you indicated, the top three backs got about 300 carries to Fitzgerald's 162. It could very well be coincidence and I know it's not apples to apples because the LSU game featured a lot of designed QB runs so it wasn't a case of Fitz keeping (unless he optioned into this out of a different play). But I still think that when the going gets tough, Fitz is more comfortable with the ball in his hand, and the going has been really tough obviously.

 

[We Men]

Only difference in me and you, is I'm a little more positive on the outlook moving forward. If the kids/team quits on him, like a lot of people around here have b/c 11-1 is out the window. Then I agree I'll become outraged and 6-6 is very possible. This week will tell a lot.

Hunt Dawg, I will be amazed if we get 6 wins. But I honestly don't expect it.

 

[thatsbaseball]

The staff we had in the TaxSlayer bowl would be a lock to win 3 of the last 5. Hell Croom would be a lock to win 3 of the last 5. This "staff" will have completed shatting themselves if they don't win 4.

 

[BossDawg78]

LSU the second half of the game did exactly what they wanted to do, so did Kentucky.

And still LSU scored only 1 TD. Our defense did more than enough to win that game. Kentucky was held to 1, 2 TD's until our defense was exhausted because they were on the damn field way more than they should have been. If we had anything close to an offense that could move the ball, we'd be undefeated right now and everyone would be talking about how awesome our defense is.

 

[MeridianDog]

I watch Fitz and he looks exactly like a guy who can't do the job he has. He still runs ok/good/admirable, but his problem is that he is a one trick pony, and everyone knows his trick now. I thought He was a passer who had only two passes. The first was to throw the ball into the ground ten feet before it reached his receiver. The other pass was to throw it ten feet over his receiver's head and 10 yards past them. Then last week he picked up another pass to add to his tool box. He learned how to throw the ball right into the numbers on a defender's chest.


Right now, the game is more than he can do. With him, we are done for. why he isn't playing running back I don't know. Guess that is why I am not the head coach. Right now, I would do it for free if they let me put anyone else in that slot.

 

[Dawgzilla]

Exactly. He may have distributed the ball a little better last year, but when the tough yards are needed he will keep the ball more often than not. It's his default mode. It comes from his years of being the biggest kid on the field and being the option QB who was expected to just bowl everybody over.

 

[blacklistedbully]

Haven't seen you post any link that supports your POV, but I have provided links for mine. Beyond that, I wouldn't be surprised if your source is unable to discern between how many of those passes were short, intermediate or long. They probably also aren't able to factor in how much impact our running game had, which likely had defenses playing us differently.

What I gave you were referenced, undisputed facts. Common sense should tell you that a team at the highest end of INT's + the lowest end of yds/attempt is most likely a team that is not pass-blocking very long per play and/or have a reduced sack # in part because we have a QB that throws INT's, or tucking and running for positive yards (definitely happened plenty with Fitz) instead of taking the sack.

If you want impressive pass-blocking/sacks stats, look at what Mizzou did last year. Same # of sacks, but threw the ball 77 more times with a TD/INT ratio of 44/14 compared to our 17/14 and a 9.3 yd/attempt compared to our 6.1.

Common sense should tell you a 50+% increase in yds/attempt most likely means their o-line had to pass-block longer and better than ours.

Your theory is incorrect. If you can offer proof to support your POV, including links, I'll reconsider.

 

[Misfit]

So right

If you think Mullen would be 5-2 right now you need to check your head.

The folks who believe State would be undefeated if Mullen were still our coach are quick to say, "Look what he did with the same players last year," but they haven't looked at last year themselves. Last year we were 4-1 in sec games in which Fitz threw for at least 1 td, were 3-0 in SEC games in which he threw for 2 tds, and were 0-2 in SEC games in which he threw for 0 tds. For those run every play guys, State averaged 26 passes per game in SEC games last season. We were 4-1 in SEC games last season in which Nick completed over 50% of his passes, and that 1 loss was a close one to Bama. He has reached the 50% plateau in only 1 SEC game this season. Guess which one it was?

If you want to blame someone for this season, blame the team that broke our QBs leg. He is slower and much less confident on the field this year than he was last year.

 

[Dawgzilla]

The offense has failed to meet expectations no matter which side of the "bust" argument you may fall on. I fully supported the Moorhead hire, and I am still hopeful that he will work out. If you had told me 8-4 at the beginning of the season I would have accepted that (I was predicting 9-3). But the offense he has put on the field has been totally unexpected and unacceptable. I was nervous after the K-State game because Fitzgerald's passing was so bad, but even then I didn't expect to score in the single digits in 3 SEC games.

This has to change. It doesn't really matter to me if our final record is 4-8 or 9-3, if the offense doesn't show marked improvement then I am off the Moorhead bandwagon for good.