Ok so now it’s changing from what I called crap. I think they all have to have more than 51% confidence like said above in order to give it a 100% chance. We wasted enough tome on this. I called someone else’s comments crap and you are defending the guys doing the ratings. I disagree with the poster above and not you. How’s that?I don't think they all think it's just a slight edge to RU. They get rated based on the % of forecasts they get right. They are highly motivated to get it right. So I doubt they would make predictions based on a slight edge. But they will vote and predict with far less than 100% certainty also.