I was listening to a doctor who said that herd immunity starts at 50-60% infected. That makes sense because 90% is full herd immunity. He basically said that if you let the virus go through the population without taking any measures, it won't slow down until 50-60% of people get infected. That would take a long damn time, and a lot more people would have to die.
Jackson hospital update
- Thread starter patdog
- Start date
Help me out. So 35K give or take have had or have the virus in MS. 20k have recovered. So basically out infections in MS is 15k.... so we are basically saying all infections are hospitalized? Something doesn't add up and I think it's more about understaffing.
Transitioning to Obamacare cost my wife’s hospital system around $30 Million per year, you have to make up for it somewhere... and their system is a non-profit...there is also a shortage of nurses, respiratory therapist and Doctors... my cousin’s husband is a Doctor... he closed his practice due to Obamacare and works for the hospital now.
A lot of the new and more in depth modeling think the number is much muchhhh lower than that. Less than 50% in many situations. The numbers above what happens during an exponential unchecked outbreak and worst case scenario which we still don’t have with a very high r0.
If it only takes 50% during a controlled outbreak, it’ll start slowing down at 25-30%. But that depends on us not letting the tires fall off right here which we seem to be on our way to doing
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Living in Iowa, I often compare MS and IA since they are of similar geographic size, population, and both are heavily ag based.
The covid situation has been interesting to watch since numbers have been so different between the states.
There are currently 49 patients in ICU for covid in Iowa with 463 ICU beds still available.
Iowa has had 33155 confirmed cases and 739 deaths.
Mississippi has had 33591 confirmed cases and 1204 deaths.
So similar geographic size, similar population size, similar rural ag based setup, and similar confirmed cases.
But MS is much higher in deaths.
There is social distancing here, and some stores require masks, but most stores are at about 50/50 for mask use from what I experience.
My kids just finished a 4 day volleyball camp where obviously no masks were worn and there was 0 distancing.
Its interesting to see how each state's governor is handling the recent 'spike' in cases and odd to see how the virus has disproportionately affected some states.
The covid situation has been interesting to watch since numbers have been so different between the states.
There are currently 49 patients in ICU for covid in Iowa with 463 ICU beds still available.
Iowa has had 33155 confirmed cases and 739 deaths.
Mississippi has had 33591 confirmed cases and 1204 deaths.
So similar geographic size, similar population size, similar rural ag based setup, and similar confirmed cases.
But MS is much higher in deaths.
There is social distancing here, and some stores require masks, but most stores are at about 50/50 for mask use from what I experience.
My kids just finished a 4 day volleyball camp where obviously no masks were worn and there was 0 distancing.
Its interesting to see how each state's governor is handling the recent 'spike' in cases and odd to see how the virus has disproportionately affected some states.
Correct the average for ICU occupancy is around 68% and beds are 80-85%. They are like hotels and keep high occupancy as needed. It will relieve the strain by putting off elective surgeries. Still remember that because a hospital or ICU is at near capacity, doesn’t mean they are all Covid patients. Still about 20% from last I heard.
Covid is racist also.... per the MSDH stats it is hitting the black population a lot harder than the white population..... Iowa black population is about 4%..,,, Mississippi almost 40%....
Mask will not keep you safe. For the follow the science crowd, where is the science to support this? My problem with it is multifactorial. 1) we've lost the social distancing message by everyone focusing on masks. Cloth and surgical masks will not protect you from a 1 micron sized virus, nor will it protect others. Will it stop spittle and such, yes, but if you were social distancing you wouldn't need to be concerned with that. 2) the overwhelming majority of people have been wearing mask for a month now, with no effect on declining the numbers. 3) false sense of security, look how close people get when wearing a mask. 4) people are constantly touching their face to adjust the mask which is a terrible thing to do. Don't believe me:
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/covid-19-faq.html#cloth-face-coverings
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]https://www.captainsjournal.com/2020/05/28/new-england-journal-of-medicine-on-what-masks-cant-do-regarding-sars-cov-2/
There is an abundance of research proving cloth face masks and surgical face masks do not filter a less than 1 micron size virus. If it did, why aren't they recommended during flu season? I'm not telling people not to wear them, you can if it makes you feel better, but the message should be keep your distance, keep clean, DON'T touch your face without sanitizing. The mask message has been out front for weeks and weeks now, but look at the numbers. Even if you could get a good fit, had a fit test, used an N95, were clean shaven, etc, etc, it wouldn't block a virus this small. My biggest concern is the false sense of security and people constantly touching their face.
There is other research to suggest the wearer is at increased risk of contracting the virus once it gets in the mask because it is warm and humid and quickly multiplies. This disease severity is highly dependent on viral load and clearly that increases the wearers viral load significantly.
Wear it if you want, but the numbers won't go down from the mask. It will only go down from smart distancing, sanitation, hygiene, and don't touch your face. [/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/covid-19-faq.html#cloth-face-coverings
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Tahoma,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]https://www.captainsjournal.com/2020/05/28/new-england-journal-of-medicine-on-what-masks-cant-do-regarding-sars-cov-2/
There is an abundance of research proving cloth face masks and surgical face masks do not filter a less than 1 micron size virus. If it did, why aren't they recommended during flu season? I'm not telling people not to wear them, you can if it makes you feel better, but the message should be keep your distance, keep clean, DON'T touch your face without sanitizing. The mask message has been out front for weeks and weeks now, but look at the numbers. Even if you could get a good fit, had a fit test, used an N95, were clean shaven, etc, etc, it wouldn't block a virus this small. My biggest concern is the false sense of security and people constantly touching their face.
There is other research to suggest the wearer is at increased risk of contracting the virus once it gets in the mask because it is warm and humid and quickly multiplies. This disease severity is highly dependent on viral load and clearly that increases the wearers viral load significantly.
Wear it if you want, but the numbers won't go down from the mask. It will only go down from smart distancing, sanitation, hygiene, and don't touch your face. [/FONT]
[/FONT]
First, yes you still have to social distance and wear a mask.
2 evidence from Europe and Asia shows mask wearing and social distancing works.
For the follow science crowd, there is plenty of evidence why and how masks work. the math is pretty tricky, but it's all known.
Masks work because the virus is not floating around free. It's inside larger particles.
Filter industries understand this very well. First the particles you are catching are not solids. They are fluids. So it's not like catching fish in a net. Filters catch some particles, Coagulate smaller droplets into larger droplets (which are heavier and the fall faster per stokes law), and reduces the velocity of the fluid being filtered. Stokes law give the settling time for fluids of different density. it uses the difference in viscosity, the difference in density, forward velocity, particle size, and gravity.
Masks are not needed during flu season because you know you are sick when you are contagious with the flu. Most people are not in full flu symptoms, and going to the bar. With Covid, you are contiguous for days before you know you are sick. That's why you need masks.
And if you already have the virus, even if it did multiply inside the mask, it's coming from inside you. Where it is multiplying....
Wear a mask. Social distance. Wash your hands.
The larger hospitals in Jackson are not for profit.
I guess we could use the VA as a model, it works really well**
MS is always in the running for top unhealthiest states, so like most illnesses, if you are in crappy shape to start you can expect worse results. If you can barely walk or breathe to start with, this ain't helping matters any. That is my non-MD assertion to explain the difference.
Yeah. The truth is "not-for-profit" is a misnomer. ALL NFPs are in business to make a profit. They'd go under if they didn't. The only difference is an NFP doesn't have any owners to distribute those profits to, so they accumulate in the entity (or get paid out in outrageous salaries to the top executives that control the NFP).
The virus does not have to be in water droplets to be airborne and does float around free from exhalation, even if attached to a water molecule it's about 1 micron. It's less than 1 micron in size by itself. N95 masks and HEPA masks, even nuclear HEPA masks, only work down to 3 microns and are not supposed to be reused. Wear it if you want, there is no science or evidence it i helping at all. Look at state with and without mask mandates and the numbers don't look significantly different. I see people with masks ignoring social distancing because they say hey i'm wearing a mask. The message nationally of social distancing has been lost for over 3 weeks now and focused on masks.
to be viable it does...
And I work in droplet separation. the masks work.
But yes you have to distance as well
They don't work except for splashes/coughs/spittle. Did you even look at the OSHA link I sent? They specifically say cloth and surgical masks will not protect you from infectious agents. And, I don't care where you work, I've done respirator litigation for 10 years defending respirators by multiple companies. But regardless, watch people's behavior who have them versus those who don't. Any small benefit is outweighed by the false sense of security and constantly touching your face. If they worked we would see numbers going down rapidly, we don't. The mask message has been front and center for coming on 4 weeks, at the expense of the distancing message. Again, not telling people not to wear them, telling those touting them to stop acting like "be safe, mask up" that's not the right message and does not work.
Masks are used for flu season. Offices here send you home with a mask ON if you have it. Viral infection, even this one depends a lot on viral load. Very few of those one micron viruses are floating around independently and if one happens to get through your mask it probably isn't going to hurt you by itself. The droplets are where the load is, and some of those float around for a while too. If the infected person has one on it catches most of them, then if you have one on it catches more. Masks will NOT make you safe. Neither will social distancing. But both do make you SAFER. We HAVE to slow this thing down in Mississippi or a lot of people are going to needlessly die, and not just from COVID.
Cloth and surgical masks do not stop aerosolized infectious agents smaller than 3 microns. Show me studies to the contrary. OSHA knows it, see the link, NIOSH knows it, etc. My problem, in the main, though, is the messaging the last month. I don't care if people wear them or not, but you will be disappointed if you think you are safe with one or even really any safer, unless you have good hygiene, social distance, and don't touch your face. There is emerging evidence to suggest if you get a virus in the mask it's much worse for the wearer by dramatically increasing their viral load. The death rates have been relatively stable after a significant decrease. The case counts are increasing rapidly but we are also testing 300% more than a month ago is my understanding.
Not this time but I have in the past.
Again, I do filtration and separation for a living....
Read this
https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/healthcarehsps/respiratory.html
And watch this. The droplets are in the airflow. Notice how much the air is slowed by a mask? Now put people 6 ft apart...
That's why and how masks work...
So IDGAF, about your "litigation" it has **** to do with this instance.
We don't see it working here because to many idiots think they don't work, or cover their pretty face, or some other ********...
Masks work. Stop being part of the problem.
A few years ago St. Dominic filed a CMN for a hospital across from where D1 is located in Gluckstadt. It was denied. When I lived in Tupelo about 15 years ago a CMN was filed by Baptist also denied.
Well, it depends. One of the major testing labs has apparently been pumping out a ton of false positives. NP buddy had 15 of 19 from them come back positive today, while their rapid tests were showing very different outcomes.
My guess is that these "had the virus but does not have antibodies and thus no immunity" are people that got false positive tests.
My guess is that these "had the virus but does not have antibodies and thus no immunity" are people that got false positive tests.