Jackson Declaring without an agent

[dukiejay]

Berry, Bradley, and Pinson are officially "test the waters"?

Who ultimately stays and who goes?

Pinson and Berry are making wise decisions. They're both juniors....might as well go through the process and see where they stand. Neither would likely get drafted....so I expect both to come back.

Bradley will be the tricky one. He's going to get a potential first-round grade. Like Frank, he probably doesn't get the guarantee he's after, but he's a guy who if he's not drafted will be taken in the earlier parts of the second round. I'd say there's a 40 percent chance he stays in the draft. That could also be enough to push Berry out, I guess.

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

That's all?

Here are the Guards (Point, Shooting, and Combo) that have been drafted in the 1st round (non-Lottery picks) of the NBA draft the last 3 years:

2016
29th [CG] D. Murray (6'5") - 16 ppg / 6 rpg / 4 apg
22nd [SG] M. Richardson (6'6") - 13ppg / 4rpg / 2 apg
20th [SG] C. LeVert (6'7") - 17 ppg / 5 rpg / 5 apg
19th [SG] M. Beasley (6'5") - 16 ppg / 5 rpg / 2 apg
17th [PG] W. Baldwin (6'4") - 14 ppg / 4 rpg / 5 apg
2015
28th [SG] RJ Hunter (6'5") - 20 ppg / 5 rpg / 4 apg
24th [PG] T. Jones (6'2") - 12 ppg / 4 rpg / 6 apg
20th [PG] D. Wright (6'5") - 15 ppg / 5 rpg / 5 apg
19th [PG] J. Grant (6'4") - 17 ppg / 3 rpg / 7 apg
17th [SG] R. Vaughn (6'6") - 18 ppg / 5 rpg / 2 apg
16th [PG] T. Rozier (6'2") - 17 ppg / 6 rpg / 3 apg
2014
28th [SG] CJ Wilcox (6'5") - 18ppg / 4 rpg / 3 apg
27th [SG] B. Bogdanović (6'6") - Foreign Player, No College Stats
26th [SG] PJ Hairston (6'6") - 15 ppg / 4 rpg / 1 apg
24th [PG] S. Napier (6'1") - 18 ppg / 6 rpg / 5 apg
22nd [SG] J. Adams (6'5") - 17 ppg / 5 rpg / 2apg
19th [SG] G. Harris (6'4") - 17 ppg / 4 rpg / 3 apg
18th [PG] T. Ennis (6'3") - 13 ppg / 3 rpg / 6 apg

Every single one of them either is a true PG, averaged 16+ppg in a College season, or 6'6" tall. If you compare Frank's stats to these 18 players, he has the absolute lowest Points Per Game average & Steals Per Game average, tied for the lowest Rebounds Per Game average, and tied for 2nd Lowest Assist Per Game average. Not to mention, he is the shortest non true PG.

So, if a NBA GM picks Frank in the 1st round, (on paper) they are making the worst 1st Round Guard position pick in at least the last 3 years. I think Frank is a great player and can definitely be a 1st Round pick once he either shows he can play PG at an NBA-level, or can average 16+ppg in a college season, or grows 3 inches. But until he does at least one of those three things, he is a 'maybe somewhere in the 2nd round pick' - that's a big risk to take for someone that does have the potential to be a lottery pick if he improves his game.

 

[DukeDenver]

Here are the Guards (Point, Shooting, and Combo) that have been drafted in the 1st round (non-Lottery picks) of the NBA draft the last 3 years:

2016
29th [CG] D. Murray (6'5") - 16 ppg / 6 rpg / 4 apg
22nd [SG] M. Richardson (6'6") - 13ppg / 4rpg / 2 apg
20th [SG] C. LeVert (6'7") - 17 ppg / 5 rpg / 5 apg
19th [SG] M. Beasley (6'5") - 16 ppg / 5 rpg / 2 apg
17th [PG] W. Baldwin (6'4") - 14 ppg / 4 rpg / 5 apg
2015
28th [SG] RJ Hunter (6'5") - 20 ppg / 5 rpg / 4 apg
24th [PG] T. Jones (6'2") - 12 ppg / 4 rpg / 6 apg
20th [PG] D. Wright (6'5") - 15 ppg / 5 rpg / 5 apg
19th [PG] J. Grant (6'4") - 17 ppg / 3 rpg / 7 apg
17th [SG] R. Vaughn (6'6") - 18 ppg / 5 rpg / 2 apg
16th [PG] T. Rozier (6'2") - 17 ppg / 6 rpg / 3 apg
2014
28th [SG] CJ Wilcox (6'5") - 18ppg / 4 rpg / 3 apg
27th [SG] B. Bogdanović (6'6") - Foreign Player, No College Stats
26th [SG] PJ Hairston (6'6") - 15 ppg / 4 rpg / 1 apg
24th [PG] S. Napier (6'1") - 18 ppg / 6 rpg / 5 apg
22nd [SG] J. Adams (6'5") - 17 ppg / 5 rpg / 2apg
19th [SG] G. Harris (6'4") - 17 ppg / 4 rpg / 3 apg
18th [PG] T. Ennis (6'3") - 13 ppg / 3 rpg / 6 apg

Every single one of them either is a true PG, averaged 16+ppg in a College season, or 6'6" tall. If you compare Frank's stats to these 18 players, he has the absolute lowest Points Per Game average & Steals Per Game average, tied for the lowest Rebounds Per Game average, and tied for 2nd Lowest Assist Per Game average. Not to mention, he is the shortest non true PG.

So, if a NBA GM picks Frank in the 1st round, (on paper) they are making the worst 1st Round Guard position pick in at least the last 3 years. I think Frank is a great player and can definitely be a 1st Round pick once he either shows he can play PG at an NBA-level, or can average 16+ppg in a college season, or grows 3 inches. But until he does at least one of those three things, he is a 'maybe somewhere in the 2nd round pick' - that's a big risk to take for someone that does have the potential to be a lottery pick if he improves his game.

There is definitely some merit to what you are saying. I'd counter with the fact that he was playing behind the reigning scoring leader in the ACC in Grayson, the real ACC player of the year in Luke, a senior Matt Jones. None of the other guys on that list had that kind of competition from upperclassmen. Frank's number don't mean all that much because he didn't get a ton of playing time or much of a green light until very late in the year when Grayson was hurt. His lack of height is a concern, but his hops are elite, which somewhat makes up for that. He plays decent defense. I think it's a stretch to say he's the "worst 1st round guard pick of the last three years" based on his stats. If Frank had played at NC State instead of Smith Jr., his numbers wouldn't be too far behind what Smith did, except maybe in assists. Frank is marketable too, with a great personality. That matters in today's NBA.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

I'd counter that with stats arnt everything especially when not accounting for variables .. ...that simple lol nothimg further

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

It's a big risk for one of those teams sitting at the bottom of the first round waiting until next year when he is a lottery pick and missing out too lol . doeant make much sence to me to wait another year when u can draft him and wait k owing you have him if ur sure he's gonna up his stock like most here are saying anyway!! !!! Lmao ..having seen him play id gamble late in the first no doubt in my mind no hesitation..if he's a first next year why wouldn't u draft him this year in the first is my point ...if a team likes him..don't letm get away

 

[Lavar5150]

If you can get a free evaluation and come back why wouldn't you? Size-wise he is a PG by NBA standards so I can understand the concern if Duval comes here. However, if you truly think your NBA ready are you really worried about a freshman then you have no business thinking your ready for the next level.

Either way, he will get his minutes at both guard positions and if, along the way, he improves his defense he can make himself a first rounder next year. This draft seems extremely deep.

 

[sheyduke]

I'm willing to bet my life he isn't a 1st round pick this year.. The NBA doesn't draft 6'3"-6'4" Combo Guards based on potential..

For Frank to be a 1st round pick, he is going to have to do one of the following: (a) show NBA-level Point Guard skills, or (b) average 16+ppg in a college season, or (c) grow 3 inches in height..

Im sure teams will give him tryouts and a D-League spot, and he could possibly "Seth Curry" his way into the league.. But it'll be much easier to play another year at Duke and accomplish (a) or (b) and then be a 1st round pick (or guaranteed 2nd round pick) next year.

Kimba Walker begs to differ on your first part.

 

[sheyduke]

Here are the Guards (Point, Shooting, and Combo) that have been drafted in the 1st round (non-Lottery picks) of the NBA draft the last 3 years:

2016
29th [CG] D. Murray (6'5") - 16 ppg / 6 rpg / 4 apg
22nd [SG] M. Richardson (6'6") - 13ppg / 4rpg / 2 apg
20th [SG] C. LeVert (6'7") - 17 ppg / 5 rpg / 5 apg
19th [SG] M. Beasley (6'5") - 16 ppg / 5 rpg / 2 apg
17th [PG] W. Baldwin (6'4") - 14 ppg / 4 rpg / 5 apg
2015
28th [SG] RJ Hunter (6'5") - 20 ppg / 5 rpg / 4 apg
24th [PG] T. Jones (6'2") - 12 ppg / 4 rpg / 6 apg
20th [PG] D. Wright (6'5") - 15 ppg / 5 rpg / 5 apg
19th [PG] J. Grant (6'4") - 17 ppg / 3 rpg / 7 apg
17th [SG] R. Vaughn (6'6") - 18 ppg / 5 rpg / 2 apg
16th [PG] T. Rozier (6'2") - 17 ppg / 6 rpg / 3 apg
2014
28th [SG] CJ Wilcox (6'5") - 18ppg / 4 rpg / 3 apg
27th [SG] B. Bogdanović (6'6") - Foreign Player, No College Stats
26th [SG] PJ Hairston (6'6") - 15 ppg / 4 rpg / 1 apg
24th [PG] S. Napier (6'1") - 18 ppg / 6 rpg / 5 apg
22nd [SG] J. Adams (6'5") - 17 ppg / 5 rpg / 2apg
19th [SG] G. Harris (6'4") - 17 ppg / 4 rpg / 3 apg
18th [PG] T. Ennis (6'3") - 13 ppg / 3 rpg / 6 apg

Every single one of them either is a true PG, averaged 16+ppg in a College season, or 6'6" tall. If you compare Frank's stats to these 18 players, he has the absolute lowest Points Per Game average & Steals Per Game average, tied for the lowest Rebounds Per Game average, and tied for 2nd Lowest Assist Per Game average. Not to mention, he is the shortest non true PG.

So, if a NBA GM picks Frank in the 1st round, (on paper) they are making the worst 1st Round Guard position pick in at least the last 3 years. I think Frank is a great player and can definitely be a 1st Round pick once he either shows he can play PG at an NBA-level, or can average 16+ppg in a college season, or grows 3 inches. But until he does at least one of those three things, he is a 'maybe somewhere in the 2nd round pick' - that's a big risk to take for someone that does have the potential to be a lottery pick if he improves his game.

How many of these are even in the league any more or even the dleague for that matter? It's all about potential and most of those were not freshman they were upperclassman

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

Kimba Walker begs to differ on your first part.

Kemba Walker was a lottery pick.. he also averaged 24ppg his last year in College, so he met the "average 16 ppg in a college season" requirement I stated.

 

[hart2chesson]

Jackson looking at options per TD....
Link--


OFC

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

There is definitely some merit to what you are saying. I'd counter with the fact that he was playing behind the reigning scoring leader in the ACC in Grayson, the real ACC player of the year in Luke, a senior Matt Jones. None of the other guys on that list had that kind of competition from upperclassmen. Frank's number don't mean all that much because he didn't get a ton of playing time or much of a green light until very late in the year when Grayson was hurt.

My argument to that is.. K almost always plays 3 guards at the same time, and the PG position had 40 minutes available for the taking, no competition at all.. if Frank had really good PG skills, K would have played him 30+ minutes per game as the PG.. So, if Frank can't be the PG of a Duke team that has no PG, he is not serviceable in the NBA as a PG right now.. Which makes him a 6'3"-6'4" SG at the NBA level.. if you are his size, playing SG in the NBA, you don't get drafted in the first round - unless you average 16ppg in college..

Look at the 6'3"-6'4" McD's A.A. Shooting Guards that came to Duke this millennium, and you'll see a pattern..

McD's A.A. 6'4" [SG] Austin Rivers was a 1st round NBA lottery pick after his Freshman season, where he averaged 16ppg.

McD's A.A. 6'4" [SG] Elliot Williams was a 1st round NBA pick, after the first season he averaged 16+ppg (at Memphis).

McD's A.A. 6'4" [SG] Gerald Henderson was a 1st round NBA lottery pick, after the first season he had where he averaged 16+ppg.

McD's A.A. 6'4" [SG] J.J. Redick was a 1st round NBA lottery pick, after three seasons of averaging 16+ppg.

McD's A.A. 6'3" [SG] Daniel Ewing never averaged more than 15ppg in college, he was a 2nd round NBA draft pick.

McD's A.A. 6'4" [SG] Rasheed Sulaimon never averaged more than 12ppg in college, and he went undrafted.

McD's A.A. 6'4" [SG] Grayson Allen was not projected to be a 1st round NBA draft pick after his Freshman season, but was after his Soph. season, where he averaged 16+ppg (he would not have been a 1st round draft pick had he declared after his Freshman year).

 

[sheyduke]

Kemba Walker was a lottery pick.. he also averaged 24ppg his last year in College, so he met the "average 16 ppg in a college season" requirement I stated.

I know but he was also viewed more as a combo coming out of college and at 6'1" he has become a good but not great pg. his knock coming out was people viewed him more as a undersized combo guard. With the " potential" to become a good pg in the league.

By your adjustments at 16ppg it gets you drafted but it's still on your potential.
AR plays the pg for Paul when healthy and off the ball at times.
Elliot Williams went to Portland with the potential of being a pg and secondary ball handler never could flourish in the league.
Henderson, good player but still struggles in the league.

Look at the draft classes and it's still done on potential in what scouts and teams think you can do in the future.

 

[TWARedRaider01]

Jackson looking at options per TD....
Link--


OFC

Scared of an 18 year old thats never played college. Well he must be nba ready with that mindset

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

I know but he was also viewed more as a combo coming out of college and at 6'1" he has become a good but not great pg. his knock coming out was people viewed him more as a undersized combo guard. With the " potential" to become a good pg in the league.

If you average 24ppg for a National Championship team, it doesn't matter what size or position you are.. And considering he was averaging almost 5 assist per game and only 2 turnovers per game, he's a PG.. Frank was at about a 1:1 assist to turnover ratio this season.

 

[Laettner15]

Jackson looking at options per TD....
Link--


OFC

Thats still interesting to me... if Jackson stays in the draft I think Knox comes here.

 

[TWARedRaider01]

Thats still interesting to me... if Jackson stays in the draft I think Knox comes here.

Frank or Knox and Duval, what would you like better?

 

[Laettner15]

Frank and Duval... haha not one of the choices... if I had to choose I choose frank but that's me.

Whatever he decides though I'll be happy for him.

Edit: sorry I misread frank and Duval absolutely! Talk about a backcourt that would be!

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

I know but he was also viewed more as a combo coming out of college and at 6'1" he has become a good but not great pg. his knock coming out was people viewed him more as a undersized combo guard. With the " potential" to become a good pg in the league.

By your adjustments at 16ppg it gets you drafted but it's still on your potential.
AR plays the pg for Paul when healthy and off the ball at times.
Elliot Williams went to Portland with the potential of being a pg and secondary ball handler never could flourish in the league.
Henderson, good player but still struggles in the league.

Look at the draft classes and it's still done on potential in what scouts and teams think you can do in the future.

Of course every player is drafted with the potential they will be a good NBA player.. what I'm saying is, if a player averages 16ppg at the D1 level, you're not "really" drafting them on potential.. they've already proved they can put up consistent scoring numbers at a very high level..

Drafting on potential means you draft Harry Giles in the 1st round, even though he didn't show he could dominate at the D1 level.. drafting on potential means drafting a player straight out of high school..

There have been a total of 31 total players that were drafted from high school to the NBA in the 1st round, since 1975... out of those 31 players, guess how many were Guards (PG or SG) that were 6'4" or shorter?

ONE ... Sebastian Telfair and he was a 100% true PG..

So, no.. the NBA doesn't draft 6'3"-6'4" SG's on potential in the 1st round.

 

[jnastasi]

Frank or Knox and Duval, what would you like better?

Frank and Duval all day.

 

[VaBlueDevil33]

Jackson looking at options per TD....
Link--


OFC

Gone if Duval comes here? WOW...unbelievable

 

[sheyduke]

Of course every player is drafted with the potential they will be a good NBA player.. what I'm saying is, if a player averages 16ppg at the D1 level, you're not "really" drafting them on potential.. they've already proved they can put up consistent scoring numbers at a very high level..

Drafting on potential means you draft Harry Giles in the 1st round, even though he didn't show he could dominate at the D1 level.. drafting on potential means drafting a player straight out of high school..

There have been a total of 31 total players that were drafted from high school to the NBA in the 1st round, since 1975... out of those 31 players, guess how many were Guards (PG or SG) that were 6'4" or shorter?

ONE ... Sebastian Telfair and he was a 100% true PG..

So, no.. the NBA doesn't draft 6'3"-6'4" SG's on potential in the 1st round.

So if Diallio goes pro at 6'4" without playing one game in college and goes top half of the first round what is he being drafted on?

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

So if Diallio goes pro at 6'4" without playing one game in college and goes top half of the first round what is he being drafted on?

Last year, Diallo was measured at 6'5" with a 6'10" wingspan.. At the same time, Frank was measured at 6'3.5" with a wingspan less than 6'7".

And if you don't think that 1.5" matters THAT much.. if Kennard was 1.5" shorter, I guarantee he would be playing his Junior year at Duke next year.. and if Grayson was 1.5" taller, he would have been in the NBA last year.. and if i was 1.5" longer, my wife would be a lot more satisfied.

 

[SWEc/o95]

Gone if Duval comes here? WOW...unbelievable

I agree. Would be the second year in a row our possible PG has ran away from competition. It's getting old.

 

[DukeDenver]

Aint no room for challenging oneself when there are millions of dollars to be had.

 

[VaBlueDevil33]

Aint no room for challenging oneself when there are millions of dollars to be had.

Nothing guaranteed if not a first round pick...is that worth taking a chance on when you could have a free year of school and probably a first round guaranteed money pick next year?

His choice and he has to live with his decision

 

[SWEc/o95]

2nd rounders are not making millions unless they have become stars. And even then it took a few years to get those millions. Draymond Green didn't make a million dollar salary until his 4th season when he resigned with GS. Those guys are few and far between.

 

[sheyduke]

Last year, Diallo was measured at 6'5" with a 6'10" wingspan.. At the same time, Frank was measured at 6'3.5" with a wingspan less than 6'7".

And if you don't think that 1.5" matters THAT much.. if Kennard was 1.5" shorter, I guarantee he would be playing his Junior year at Duke next year.. and if Grayson was 1.5" taller, he would have been in the NBA last year.. and if i was 1.5" longer, my wife would be a lot more satisfied.

So your saying sg is the only position in the NBA that doesn't draft on potential because a player averages 16 ppg in college. Yet when you look at most the players you listed they started for the time they averaged 16ppg. So if Jackson had started all season at pg he would be a for sure first round because he would have averaged 16 ppg. By your logic then there wouldn't be no reason to have a discussion about Jackson because had he started, scored 16 ppg, he would be a for sure first round pick like the rest.
But because he still might be. It's not off his potential? Then why was he listed in the early first round prior to the college basketball season with out scoring a point? Could we say it was because of the " potential " many thought he had?
Just asking. Not arguing but you did say 6'3" to 6'4" and you did say averaged 16 ppg. Even though the same ones you mentioned were already listed in the first round without scoring one point at the college level yet.

 

[dukiejay]

Nothing guaranteed if not a first round pick...is that worth taking a chance on when you could have a free year of school and probably a first round guaranteed money pick next year?

His choice and he has to live with his decision

And last time I checked Frank hadn't made his final decision yet. Right now he's just testing the waters....an advantageous thing for him to do.

 

[KellenPatrick]

Frank and Duval all day.

I think he was asking if you would rather have Frank back OR take Knox and Duval instead. Come on, guys.

 

[Dattier]

Frank or Knox and Duval, what would you like better?

We need some order of operations up in here! Is it "(Frank-or-Knox) ... and Duval" or "Frank... or (Knox-and-Duval)"?

 

[Tim1515]

I have to imagine there is a very good chance Frank returns but testing the water is an obvious choice to make.

For Duke...their chances of being a real contender will be boosted if he returns.

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

I'm going to be really disappointed if frank leaves ..o don't think Duval coming has much to do with it imo.. I'm not to sure I even believe that yet I haven't seen anything really ..I thought frank was key this year and going to be the key next year ..now Knox becomes the key I think we're not as good next year regardless what happens now without frank though

 

[IPSYCHOSIS]

The way his dad talks it's not looking good

 

[Laettner]

I love Frank's game, intensity & enthusiasm(reaction after Kennard 3 at Wake was incredible) but he would be in D-league immediately. Think of how many open looks a backcourt of Frank, Grayson & Duval would get. Paint touch & kick for treys. My God I want to see this!

Frank would become a household name and skyrocket up 2018 draft board.

 

[TWARedRaider01]

We need some order of operations up in here! Is it "(Frank-or-Knox) ... and Duval" or "Frank... or (Knox-and-Duval)"?

So you can have frank..just frank. Or you get duval and knox together.

 

[CatcherForLife6]

A whole lot of experts here fellas... I'd suggest not getting your panties in a bunch and move on. It is what it is and not a single thing any one of us can do to alter his decision. If you were faced with achieving your life long dream or waiting another year for it to happen, what would you do? Remember to think like a 19 year old and not like the mature adults we are and being able to realize delayed gratification.

 

[hart2chesson]

I love Frank's game, intensity & enthusiasm(reaction after Kennard 3 at Wake was incredible) but he would be in D-league immediately. Think of how many open looks a backcourt of Frank, Grayson & Duval would get. Paint touch & kick for treys. My God I want to see this!



Frank would become a household name and skyrocket up 2018 draft board.

Everything you said is true. However I just wonder, even if Frank has no guarantee he'll get drafted if he returns. (Yesterday I saw him picked 30th in one mock, and not at all in either rd in 3 others).Pure logic says he does, but is he so determined (as is his dad)to make it as point guard(his best option to make it at next level) he tries to latch on as free agent, and play some D-League pg, them make it ala Seth, Quinn??? OFC

 

[Laettner]

Everything you said is true. However I just wonder, even if Frank has no guarantee he'll get drafted if he returns. (Yesterday I saw him picked 30th in one mock, and not at all in either rd in 3 others).Pure logic says he does, but is he so determined (as is his dad)to make it as point guard(his best option to make it at next level) he tries to latch on as free agent, and play some D-League pg, them make it ala Seth, Quinn??? OFC

D-league = $40k per year and playing in high school gyms. If Frank's dad doesn't want him competing at Duke, why would he advise his son to compete in minor league. Maybe Frank's dad can demand first round slot(sarcasm).

My son would be playing at Duke with incredible exposure, flying private jets & staying in 5 star hotels.

 

[hart2chesson]

D-league = $40k per year and playing in high school gyms. If Frank's dad doesn't want him competing at Duke, why would he advise his son to compete in minor league. Maybe Frank's dad can demand first round slot(sarcasm).

My son would be playing at Duke with incredible exposure, flying private jets & staying in 5 star hotels.[/QUOTE

For sake of counterpoint per "Why?"

Because if nothing else he gets opportunity to work on being a PG to hone his skills, an opportunity that never arises w/a Duval commit....Laett, you said key thing, "my son." We dont know exactly how Mr Jackson is looking at it. I feel pretty certain even if he doesnt get drafted, he ends up in the Jazz organization.

OFC

 

[Jake1985]

Two things.
1- If it was me, I would declare and test the waters
2- If It was my son, I would support him declaring and testing the waters.

From a young age we all hear the phrases "you're such a dreamer" or "keep dreaming". And a dream is one action step away from becoming reality. In the early stages of recruiting, contacting college coaches, being recruited by college coaches and getting offers are all action steps along the process. Committing to a college and playing college basketball is a dream come true. However, playing in the NBA is living the dream.