Italy...

[JungRebel]

10,000 new cases in the last two days, 627 dead in the last 24 hours. We are 11 days behind them and have 5x as many people. I dont know what we need to do but we need big action now. I cant imagine anything other than a full shut down is coming.

 

[Cooterpoot]

And over 80% of those deaths are 80 years old plus. They have a very old population in tight quarters.

 

[GloryDawg]

10,000 new cases in the last two days, 627 dead in the last 24 hours. We are 11 days behind them and have 5x as many people. I dont know what we need to do but we need big action now. I cant imagine anything other than a full shut down is coming.

The United States started putting travel band on China way before Italy. I'm not sure if we are 11 days behind them.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

And over 80% of those deaths are 80 years old plus. They have a very old population in tight quarters.

Also, lots of smokers.

 

[ckDOG]

Full shutdown would be a little extreme

Italy and the United States have far different densities and demographics. Italy as a country should not be an indicator of what happens to the United States as a country. Are there important lessons to be learned and applied to certain areas of the US? Yep. Lockdown of NYC probably a good idea. Lockdown of the country unnecessary if less dense communities are respecting social distancing.

 

[BlueRidgeMtns]

All of this "glass of red wine at night is good for you" stuff turned out to be total BS.**

 

[msudawg1200]

Italy seems to be an outlier along with Iran. Both of these countries were in bed with the ChinaCommies. They allowed Chinese contracts to build things in their countries and these contracts brought thousands of Chinese workers into their countries. Most in Italy were located in Lombardy and Tuscany where the disease is by far the most rampant. These workers went home to China to celebrate the Lunar New Year and brought it back to Italy when they returned. That coupled with the living conditions, age, and underlying health issues of Italy have ballooned the outcome of the virus there. Italy has been in lockdown for two weeks and looking at possibly lifting it April 1. The situation here is nothing like the situation in Italy. Quit watching CNN.

 

[GloryDawg]

And over 80% of those deaths are 80 years old plus. They have a very old population in tight quarters.

I want to add why is it so bad in Italy. I suspect there are some other underlying elements taking place there. We will not fully understand until the crisis is over and the experts can study and understand why. If you can believe the information the Chinese Communist goverment is putting out Italy is worse then China where the virus started.

 

[msudawg1200]

And over 80% of those deaths are 80 years old plus. They have a very old population in tight quarters.

Italy released a report today that 99% of those that died had at least one underlying health issue, and that almost 70% had two or more.

 

[8dog]

Thats not true. Italy banned travel from china the day after their first case. We banned travel from
china with exceptions 10 days after the first US case. Sorry if no sub.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

[Leeshouldveflanked]

Italy seems to be an outlier along with Iran. Both of these countries were in bed with the ChinaCommies. They allowed Chinese contracts to build things in their countries and these contracts brought thousands of Chinese workers into their countries. Most in Italy were located in Lombardy and Tuscany where the disease is by far the most rampant. These workers went home to China to celebrate the Lunar New Year and brought it back to Italy when they returned. That coupled with the living conditions, age, and underlying health issues of Italy have ballooned the outcome of the virus there. Italy has been in lockdown for two weeks and looking at possibly lifting it April 1. The situation here is nothing like the situation in Italy. Quit watching CNN.

^^^^^This^^^^^

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Got a link to that report?

 

[JungRebel]

I'm not watching CNN, I am literally looking at Italy's reported numbers. You think no one traveled to and from China and the United States since this **** started? They had months to do so. Italy ain't lifting **** in ten days and you know it. When there are 6000 new cases today the fallout from those cases is at least a week away. By the way I watch plenty of Fox News and they havent been as stupidly optimistic as some are here since Trump declared an emergency.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

10,000 new cases in the last two days, 627 dead in the last 24 hours. We are 11 days behind them and have 5x as many people. I dont know what we need to do but we need big action now. I cant imagine anything other than a full shut down is coming.

No two countries are the same. The US is over 32x the size of Italy with 5x the population. Population density, among other things, matter. The graph that has been going around is misleading.

"THE QUESTION:

Is a graphic on COVID-19 cases accurate in showing that U.S. cases are following the pattern of those in hard-hit Italy?


THE ANSWER:


No.


WHAT WE FOUND:


Dr. Lucina Suarez, an epidemiologist in Austin, Texas, explained that while the graphic is intended to compare the exponential growth in cases between the U.S. and Italy, it doesn’t really work. For one thing, the graphic doesn’t take into account the incidence rate – that is, factoring in the population sizes of Italy (62 million) and the U.S. (330 million).


"These comparisons are always problematic since they are based on counts and not incidence rates," she said. “While giving a sense of rapid rise in cases, it would be more valid if based on the same case definition -- for example, mild versus severe cases -- and knowing the criteria of who is tested and who is not."


She also said that the graphic doesn't factor in the testing taking place in each country. The U.S. numbers are probably under-counted currently because testing is not very available here, she said."

 

[msudawg1200]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
I guess the report was actually Wednesday, and it was 50% percent instead of 70% having two underlying health issues, but here it is.

 

[JungRebel]

I understand we are more spread out than italy by and large but there are four cities in the US that together have more people in them than italy has in their whole country. We have population centers that are very dense. It's probably better to compare what's going on in our big cities to their big cities.

 

[johnson86-1]

Italy released a report today that 99% of those that died had at least one underlying health issue, and that almost 70% had two or more.

Saw that too, which is great unless they are considering obesity to be an underlying health issue, in which case that doesn't make me feel much better. Not so worried about my chances as about still having other posters to talk to on this board when it's all over.

 

[Bcash2]

By "way before", do you mean "four days after"?

Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said a ban on Europeans entering the United States is necessary because Europe hadn’t banned flights from China early as the U.S. had done.
“The European Union failed to take the same precautions and restrict travel from China and other hot spots as a result a large number of new clusters were seeded by travellers from Europe,” he said.
But virtually every part of this statement is untrue.
Italy imposed a ban on flights from China on 31 January, immediately after a Chinese couple in Rome tested positive for the virus. The U.S. began to restrict flights from China four days later. But while Italy enacted a full ban, the U.S. policy was only a restriction, with wide exemptions.

 

[thatsbaseball]

My daughter's best friend had a very bad experience with the Italian "health care" system recently. I won't go into details but I doubt that anyone familiar with happened with her is surprised by what's happening now.

 

[Walter White.sixpack]

Got a link to that report?

https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/over-99-of-coronavirus-patients-in-italy-who-died-had-other-illnesses/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...rus-Italy-existing-illnesses-study-finds.html

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/eur...y-says-99-people-who-died-had-other-illnesses

 

[aTotal360]

Our healthcare system is significantly better than Italy's. We won't be "the next Italy" in terms of death rate.

 

[msudawg1200]

And you damn well know we aren't going into full lockdown in the U.S. either.

 

[Bcash2]

Yea good thing we don't have Chinese people living, working, and traveling back and forth to China in this country. Everyone that enjoys the luxuries of modern society is "in bed with China Commies".

 

[J-Dawg]

10,000 new cases in the last two days, 627 dead in the last 24 hours. We are 11 days behind them and have 5x as many people. I dont know what we need to do but we need big action now. I cant imagine anything other than a full shut down is coming.

I agree, it’s gonna get bad here. It’s inevitable.

But just like we said we can’t apply China’s stats to our situation, I don’t think we can apply Italy’s apples to apples. i think every countries situation is unique.

We recorded our first case on Jan 20. Italy’s was on Jan 31. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy

I keep seeing everyone saying we are behind them on the curve (and maybe so). According to this https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

We had 15 cases to their 3 on Feb 15. How are we behind them if the exponential climb is the same to be applied in all cases? I’m legitimately curious. I’m a scientist, though not medical nor a statistician, but I do have to use critical thinking on a daily basis and to me, it seems that there are other factors at play that can’t necessarily be quantified.

 

[aTotal360]

Don't count on that...

 

[patdog]

A few differences:

Population density - 532/square mi vs 94
Age of population - 23% > 65 vs 16%
Smoking - 1 out of 4 vs 1 out of 7
Italy also has widespread kissing as the way people greet each other

 

[msstate7]

Saw that too, which is great unless they are considering obesity to be an underlying health issue, in which case that doesn't make me feel much better. Not so worried about my chances as about still having other posters to talk to on this board when it's all over.

Who you calling a fatass?**

 

[TheStateUofMS]

If you've ever been to Europe and see how close quarters everything is in EVERY ASPECT of society, it's not hard to see why it's spreading so rapidly and this virus is extremely easy to transmit.

An infected person can cough and those droplets can remain on the floor or hand rail or a counter top from several hours up to days depending on the surface.

And it ravages elderly people and folks in poor health, which Italy has the oldest population in Europe I saw at 23%.

 

[JungRebel]

I'm referring to the numbers I've seen once the virus gets to a certain threshold and begins doubling every x amount of days. We had cases earlier but the virus spread quicker there, perhaps because (IIRC) we knew about those early cases and where they came from and were able to quarantine them successfully. It took longer for that to start here (or, that was the lag in testing) but now we are adding new cases faster than they were once they got over around 200. When I say 11 days behind I mean we likely wont see the number of new cases confirmed per day that they are seeing for another week or more, and I'm afraid we will see the deaths start to closely resemble what they are seeing in that time frame too.

This is where I'm getting that phrasing:

https://mobile.twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1239695022334902273

Please let me know if I am misunderstanding this. Sorry I cant embed a tweet, I only got a 17 on the twitter portion of the ACT.

 

[aTotal360]

Bingo. Also in the past 10 years, Northern Italy has become a MAJOR vacation destination for Asians. I went snowboarding there a few years back and I was the only gringo on the gondola to the top of the mountain. It was me and 49 other Asians.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

If you count obesity as a chronic condition, 6 in 10 Americans have a chronic health condition.

 

[Misfit]

Where are you getting your news that has led you to the apparent conclusion that the only way to get his virus is to come into contact with someone who has recently been to China?

 

[Nicephorus]

Keep in mind, Italy is aggressively rationing healthcare right now as their system is saturated. The ventilators are supposedly going to the younger patients at the expense of the old and unhealthy. Therefore, there’s probably a significant selection bias in their death statistics towards the older population as the younger people are being treated much more aggressively.

This is why there is a push not to saturate our system so we don’t have to face the “bloody arithmetic” to borrow a phrase from Lincoln.

 

[aTotal360]

That is correct. The lots of elderly are being left to die so they can save "contributors to society".

 

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

Keep in mind, Italy is aggressively rationing healthcare right now as their system is saturated. The ventilators are supposedly going to the younger patients at the expense of the old and unhealthy. Therefore, there’s probably a significant selection bias in their death statistics towards the older population as the younger people are being treated much more aggressively.

This is why there is a push not to saturate our system so we don’t have to face the “bloody arithmetic” to borrow a phrase from Lincoln.

Good news for us is that, at least based on this one graphic, we have 3x the capacity to handle critically ill patients than Italy does.

https://sccm.org/Blog/March-2020/Un...vailability-for-COVID-19?_zs=jxpjd1&_zl=w9pb6

 

[L4Dawg]

If you've ever been to Europe and see how close quarters everything is in EVERY ASPECT of society, it's not hard to see why it's spreading so rapidly and this virus is extremely easy to transmit.

An infected person can cough and those droplets can remain on the floor or hand rail or a counter top from several hours up to days depending on the surface.

And it ravages elderly people and folks in poor health, which Italy has the oldest population in Europe I saw at 23%.

The median age in Italy is almost 48.

 

[DawgInThe256]

Interesting perspective here. Ideally we would have enough tests to sample the population and identify the hotspots.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

Also, I haven't heard any claims about the accuracy of the tests. There was an interesting chapter in the book Innumeracy about the dangers of false positives in a population that is overwhelmingly negative. This link (about halfway down) explains it.

https://www.nytimes.com/1989/01/01/books/the-odds-are-you-re-innumerate.html

 

[AtlantaDawg]

My friend from the UK say that the healthcare system in Europe is HORRIBLE. They were visiting the USA one summer and their son broke his arm at Disneyland. They went to the Emergency Room in Orlando and were BLOWN AWAY by the fast treatment they received in the USA. They claim that Doctors in Europe work the day for the government and then moonlight at night for cash. The latter is much more lucrative.

 

[Drebin]

Italy seems to be an outlier along with Iran. Both of these countries were in bed with the ChinaCommies. They allowed Chinese contracts to build things in their countries and these contracts brought thousands of Chinese workers into their countries. Most in Italy were located in Lombardy and Tuscany where the disease is by far the most rampant. These workers went home to China to celebrate the Lunar New Year and brought it back to Italy when they returned. That coupled with the living conditions, age, and underlying health issues of Italy have ballooned the outcome of the virus there. Italy has been in lockdown for two weeks and looking at possibly lifting it April 1. The situation here is nothing like the situation in Italy. Quit watching CNN.

I don't know why this post is so downvoted. It's 100% true.

 

[AtlantaDawg]

This is what has happened in Italy and Iran. Two totally different politics and cultures:

https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/17/iran-and-italy-are-paying-a-hefty-price-for-close-ties-with-communist-china/?fbclid=IwAR2zPVnEb9dWIewshIHJj-iNBZfWAFcd9NI5CyGxI7w3vGt8u6kMfIkoxCI