Interesting Stat

[messageboardsuperhero]

It seems like everyone in the media is picking us sixth in the league behind OM. If you check some of the early mock gambling projections (from writers and NOT the actual folks that set the lines in Vegas), you’ll see a lot of them think we are more likely to finish last than fifth place in the West. Looking at SEC standings from the last several years though would probably shock the average media voter.

In the last 10 seasons, Ole Miss has finished ahead of us in the standings exactly one time (2015). In 2013, each team finished 3-5, but State won head to head. In the other eight seasons, State finished ahead of OM outright in the SEC standings. Eight times in the seasons- and really nine out of ten if you count 2013 with the head to head win. We have been consistently decent for 10 straight years, and they haven’t had a winning season in half a decade.

So why is the media consensus that a bad OM team is all of a sudden going to be head and shoulders better than State? And that State will be closer to finishing last in the SECW standings than they will be to catching OM? Some publication yesterday said that OM is 16 points better than State. How in the hell do you look at both rosters and reach that conclusion?

Very bizarre to me.

 

[Dawgzilla]

Most guessers probably think that UM's current personnel is better suited to Kiffin's offense than our personnel is suited to Leach's. Both teams look to be throwing the ball around a lot, and have very suspect defenses. I'm not prepared to make any predictions about our team for this Fall, but I don't think they can finish with a .500 record playing just SEC games.

My only real prediction is that they won't play at all.

 

[wsjmsu75]

Simple answer. They are pre-season media darlings year after year. If media hype won games, they would win 9+ every year. It is mystifying as to why that is though. Especially now, with their identity as the "plantation".

 

[wsjmsu75]

Most guessers probably think that UM's current personnel is better suited to Kiffin's offense than our personnel is suited to Leach's. Both teams look to be throwing the ball around a lot, and have very suspect defenses. I'm not preparted to make any predictions about our team for this Fall, but I don't think they can finish with a .500 record playing just SEC games.

My only real prediction is that they won't play at all.

So they think Plumlee/Coral are better passers than Costello?? OK, right.

 

[patdog]

I doubt that a lot of these "experts" even know who Costello is, much less that he's on our roster. That's a slight exaggeration, but not much.

 

[Dawgzilla]

No, they think UMiss has better receivers and a team built to run that type of offense.

 

[MSUDC11]

I can justify thinking the two teams will be similar, but not that Ole Miss is going to be 16 points better. Both teams have some fun toys on offense and major questions on defense. I actually prefer our schedule to theirs, overall it's fairly similar but they have two home games where they have no real chance of winning whereas all of our home games are winnable, and they have to play teams like Arkansas and Vandy (who have given them trouble in recent years) both on the road whereas we get them both at home.

I think our floor is a little bit higher than theirs overall, with both teams having a similar ceiling. My guess is both teams are in the 4 to 6 win range, with the Egg Bowl obviously being huge for both.

 

[GloryDawg]

I can justify thinking the two teams will be similar, but not that Ole Miss is going to be 16 points better. Both teams have some fun toys on offense and major questions on defense. I actually prefer our schedule to theirs, overall it's fairly similar but they have two home games where they have no real chance of winning whereas all of our home games are winnable, and they have to play teams like Arkansas and Vandy (who have given them trouble in recent years) both on the road whereas we get them both at home.

I think our floor is a little bit higher than theirs overall, with both teams having a similar ceiling. My guess is both teams are in the 4 to 6 win range, with the Egg Bowl obviously being huge for both.

I don't think they know **** or care to know. They just go with the same old thinking that they always do. They are lazy, they live in a bubble and that's the bottom line. It's easy to use the same narrative every year.

 

[wsjmsu75]

I don't think they know **** or care to know. They just go with the same old thinking that they always do. They are lazy, they live in a bubble and that's the bottom line. It's easy to use the same narrative every year.

Maybe so, but when that same narrative is consistently erroneous every year, you would think they would at least make an attempt to adjust it somewhat if they are going to be in the prediction "business". I guess it is more about trying to please whichever fan base they want to than about being accurate.

 

[Dawgzilla]

The narrative is only clearly erroneous when they predict bad things for MSU. When they predict us to have stellar seasons, it is the coach's fault if we don't live up to those predictions.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

There’s no doubt State has consistently outplayed preseason expectations and been a better, more consistent program than Ole Miss for the past decade. It’s really not disputable. Mullen was a great coach, and Ole Miss has had a complete rebuild after the Freeze debacle.

My guess on the preseason prognostications for State is that they’re underestimating the program, and creating some solid betting opportunities for you guys. You know the program better than them, and while you’re clearly biased, that doesn’t mean you can’t see value and make money while also pulling for State to win. That’s fun!

I think the fact that OM seems to have slightly higher expectations (based on media prognosticators) is mostly based on a couple things - 1) they’ve seen a Kiffin offense work in the SEC; granted it was with 4 and 5 star players, but that would require them scratching below the surface, and they just aren’t sure about Leach’s system and the personnel fit. And 2) State’s D was bad last year and they lost most of their better players. It’s clear they don’t realize how many unknowns OM has on defense, especially with the Sam Williams suspension. But, I don’t really think it’s a OM/State thing, I think they’re just really underestimating the Leach / Costello combo and fit.

Truth be told, both teams are at a big disadvantage going into this season with new staffs and such limited time together.

 

[patdog]

you would think they would at least make an attempt to adjust it somewhat if they are going to be in the prediction "business".

You are seriously underestimating how lazy most of them are.

 

[Go Budaw]

Simple answer. They are pre-season media darlings year after year. If media hype won games, they would win 9+ every year. It is mystifying as to why that is though. Especially now, with their identity as the "plantation".

I don’t know that I’d go so far to call them media darlings, but they have done a much better job of branding themselves than we have in terms of national recognition. That’s not a knock on MSU, part of it is just inherent to their demographics and university emphases in terms of programs. They get a lot of out of state enrollees, and they have a fairly renowned journalism program. So, you get a lot of out of state enrollees, they get journalism degrees, then return to TX or GA or TN or wherever to work their way up the ladder for a publication, and they add exposure and have a natural bias when they get to do their preseason voting. And even these writers that have no ties to OM probably have an OM grad or two in their office filling their ears about the redshirted Miss Americas and the great parties and the big wins under Eli and all that. It has an effect, whether its subconscious or conscious.

They have also been propped up by things that have very little merit in the overall W-L column in the present day, like the legacy and continued involvement of the Mannings, the Grove, etc. Kinda similar to how our baseball program was propped up a bit by the LFL and Clark / Palmeiro lore in that period between 1991ish and 2010 or so when we really weren’t accomplishing much on a national level.

 

[aTotal360]

....creating some solid betting opportunities for you guys.

Are you on drugs?

 

[oxfordrebel22]

Are you on drugs?

What part of that would make you think that? I’m genuinely confused. I mean I am on drugs, yes, but I still think that makes sense.

 

[60sdog]

Journalism school

It’s their journalism school. They’ve got a lot of friends in the media.

It seems like everyone in the media is picking us sixth in the league behind OM. If you check some of the early mock gambling projections (from writers and NOT the actual folks that set the lines in Vegas), you’ll see a lot of them think we are more likely to finish last than fifth place in the West. Looking at SEC standings from the last several years though would probably shock the average media voter.

In the last 10 seasons, Ole Miss has finished ahead of us in the standings exactly one time (2015). In 2013, each team finished 3-5, but State won head to head. In the other eight seasons, State finished ahead of OM outright in the SEC standings. Eight times in the seasons- and really nine out of ten if you count 2013 with the head to head win. We have been consistently decent for 10 straight years, and they haven’t had a winning season in half a decade.

So why is the media consensus that a bad OM team is all of a sudden going to be head and shoulders better than State? And that State will be closer to finishing last in the SECW standings than they will be to catching OM? Some publication yesterday said that OM is 16 points better than State. How in the hell do you look at both rosters and reach that conclusion?

Very bizarre to me.

 

[60sdog]

It’s their journalism school. They’ve got a lot of friends in the media.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

It’s their journalism school. They’ve got a lot of friends in the media.

Lol, is this sarcasm?

 

[Ralph Cramden]

I doubt its sarcasm. Y'all do have the Shepherd Smith factor. No doubt he has plenty of friends in journalism

 

[60sdog]

Shep factor, along with many other graduates of the J school. Don’t think that doesn’t get them influence among other journalists, many of whom write opinion pieces for various publications and polls.

 

[pcdog2017]

On ESPNU radio today the hosts were comparing State and OM and why they thought OM would be better. They were gushing about Plumelee and claimed Ealy as one of the best backs in the country. While talking about State they said they didn't believe Costello could stay healthy and made no mention of Kylin Hill. I think Kylin being so underrated alone is causing these people to downplay State's legitimacy this year.

 

[messageboardsuperhero]

On ESPNU radio today the hosts were comparing State and OM and why they thought OM would be better. They were gushing about Plumelee and claimed Ealy as one of the best backs in the country. While talking about State they said they didn't believe Costello could stay healthy and made no mention of Kylin Hill. I think Kylin being so underrated alone is causing these people to downplay State's legitimacy this year.

Ealy is really explosive and a terrific play maker, but is he the proven all around back Kylin is at this point in his career? Has he shown that he can touch the ball 20+ times per game and maintain that explosiveness? No. He got fewer than 10 carries per game last year- which is pretty surprising considering how run heavy OM was.

Hill/Costello > Ealy/whatever QB they go with. Both our guys are FAR more proven on the college level.