Indiana -11
- Thread starter Spare130_rivals
- Start date
And that was only because we gave up a couple garbage time TDs.
Turns out we are one of the top college teams ATS and Indiana is one of the worst:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/ats_trends/
IU played well against OSU, Michigan and Michigan State. I don’t understand why so many fans are chalking up an RU victory here. Winning away as an 11 pt dog would be the top accomplishment of the Ash era.
I typically pick the spread within a range and am almost always correct. I would have said 2-8 if giving a wide range. I'm surprised at +11. It looks like it opened at +9.5 and then quickly jumped to 11. So far, bad sign for the good guys. Again, when a spread is so "obviously wrong", it's usually the betting public which ends up wrong.
Not sure I understand the spread. Which probably means we get blown out.
I don't care what our record ATS is. Spreads are put out each week based on factors that are not necessarily in play on another week, so a lot of times that record is pure coincidence. And sometimes that record is because Vegas has to put high lines just to beg somebody to put money on a team nobody wants to bet on.
Yes, that is what is happening. Rutgers is not a team a lot of people out here want to put money on. The spread basically bribes people to do it. And we've just barely covered two of the biggest spreads we've had this year.
That being said, Indiana has played decent games against some good teams, especially OT against Michigan and being in the hunt until late against Ohio State. And as they have played MSU and not yet played Purdue, their league slate has been slightly tougher than ours. They lost to Maryland by one score (at Maryland), we beat them by one score (at home). So I don't see any reason to think we're going to waltz in there and beat them easily.
All that being said, I would have guessed 6.5. But we shall see.
Yes, that is what is happening. Rutgers is not a team a lot of people out here want to put money on. The spread basically bribes people to do it. And we've just barely covered two of the biggest spreads we've had this year.
That being said, Indiana has played decent games against some good teams, especially OT against Michigan and being in the hunt until late against Ohio State. And as they have played MSU and not yet played Purdue, their league slate has been slightly tougher than ours. They lost to Maryland by one score (at Maryland), we beat them by one score (at home). So I don't see any reason to think we're going to waltz in there and beat them easily.
All that being said, I would have guessed 6.5. But we shall see.
I’m wondering where we can find the points on offense to create the upset vs Indiana. With a non existent passing game we know that Indy will stack the box against our running game. Not sure that we have a good solution for that.
If we could put together an average passing game we’d be a dangerous team to play. I hope that I live to see that day.
I’m hopeful, but would not take RU with the points in this one.
If we could put together an average passing game we’d be a dangerous team to play. I hope that I live to see that day.
I’m hopeful, but would not take RU with the points in this one.
On paper, Indiana and Illinois seem similar on defense.
Indiana #81 Scoring defense at 28.8 ppg. Illinois #82 at 28.9 ppg.
Indiana #17 in passing yards allowed at 179 ypg and Illinois #32 at 194 ypg.
Indiana #68 in rushing yards allowed at 170 ypg and Illinois at #109 at 205 ypg (35 ypg difference--not a huge difference)
This says teams like to run against Illinois and Indiana.
Common opponents:
Wisconsin v. Illinois--Wisconsin: 303 total yards, 168 Rushing, 135 passing. All 3 TDS were rushing TDs. 24-10 Wisconsin
Wisconsin v. Indiana--Wisconsin 407 total yards, 237 Rushing, 170 passing, 4 Rushing TDs, 2 passing TDs. 45-17 Wisconsin
Indiana v. Illinois--: Indiana 428 total yards, 289 passing 139 Rushing; 24-14 IU
RU v. Illinois--RU 376 total yards, 102 passing, 274 Rushing (avg. is 167 ypg); 35-24 RU
I think RU will run it a lot. :scream:
Hey guys, IU fan here wanting to discuss the game Saturday.
Off the top of my head I would have guessed around a -4 for IU, which would imply a PK on a neutral field.
I haven't had a chance to watch many of your games, but it seemed like you have been solid on D. Good to very good running game and a really inconsistent passing game. Is that a close approximation?
You have certainly been better than I expected coming into the season, seems like Ash has the program in the right direction. All that does is make an incredibly difficult division even more challenging.
Off the top of my head I would have guessed around a -4 for IU, which would imply a PK on a neutral field.
I haven't had a chance to watch many of your games, but it seemed like you have been solid on D. Good to very good running game and a really inconsistent passing game. Is that a close approximation?
You have certainly been better than I expected coming into the season, seems like Ash has the program in the right direction. All that does is make an incredibly difficult division even more challenging.
A few other random game stats for Indiana, leaving out PSU and tOSU:
Opponent passing and rushing yardage and result
UVA- 259 passing/ 55 Rushing; Indiana won 34-17
Mich: 329 passing/ 271 Rushing; Indiana lost 27-20
MSU: 185 passing/ 89 Rushing; Indiana lost 17-9
Md: 171 passing/ 174 Rushing; Indiana lost 42-39
Ill: 261 passing; 33 Rushing; Indiana won 24-14
Where Indiana held opponent to low rushing yards (55 and 33, they won);
Maryland's and Michigan's balanced attacks resulted in close losses for Indiana;
MSU was more pass heavy and Indiana lost a close game.
Opponent passing and rushing yardage and result
UVA- 259 passing/ 55 Rushing; Indiana won 34-17
Mich: 329 passing/ 271 Rushing; Indiana lost 27-20
MSU: 185 passing/ 89 Rushing; Indiana lost 17-9
Md: 171 passing/ 174 Rushing; Indiana lost 42-39
Ill: 261 passing; 33 Rushing; Indiana won 24-14
Where Indiana held opponent to low rushing yards (55 and 33, they won);
Maryland's and Michigan's balanced attacks resulted in close losses for Indiana;
MSU was more pass heavy and Indiana lost a close game.
Would not say our passing game is inconsistent. It is consistently deficient, but we have gotten by without one. Close and entertaining game is expected.
and they didn't cover. Same spread the next week. Typically means take the favorite the second time. It's a pattern in sports betting.
Rutgers has covered all double digit spreads so far this year except OSU (Nebraska, Washington, Michigan, PSU). Naturally, we're due for one.
Last edited:
IU by 11 is nuts - I don't do sports betting on line, but maybe it's time to start, lol...
My usual "refereeing" conspiracy theory comes into play here. RU, Purdue and IU have 6 losses. Purdue and Rutgers both have a very probable loss still on the schedule (Iowa and MSU respectively) taking them to 7 losses and out of the bowl consideration.
Most likely way Big10 gets another team into a bowl is to have IU win out (v RU & Purdue) and the conference refs know this (and Vegas knows this). IU will get enough 'artful' calls here to give a IU a safe lead and a W.
The Big10 doesn't care at all about the point spread but does care about getting more bowl bids, so the Big10 refs will try to enable that. Vegas understands this dynamic.
Most likely way Big10 gets another team into a bowl is to have IU win out (v RU & Purdue) and the conference refs know this (and Vegas knows this). IU will get enough 'artful' calls here to give a IU a safe lead and a W.
The Big10 doesn't care at all about the point spread but does care about getting more bowl bids, so the Big10 refs will try to enable that. Vegas understands this dynamic.
You obviously don't know any refs, otherwise you wouldn't post such ridculousness...
If our defense plays great and our offense has trouble running the ball against a stacked box then this score could happen.
Gio needs to show that he can be a competent passer this week. If not then we need to have a highly effective running game in order to win IMO.
Indiana has a good team this year which has taken the blue bloods to the limit. Some of which barely escaped with the win.
Anyone who thinks we can easily beat them have not been paying attention at all this year their games.
They are better than Illinois, Purdue and Maryland this year.
Anyone who thinks we can easily beat them have not been paying attention at all this year their games.
They are better than Illinois, Purdue and Maryland this year.
#s....what does knowing refs have anything to do with this ? if true, would they admit it ?
are you saying that conference refs are completely unbiased and independent when some outcomes are much preferred over others ? No, I would counter that your view is 'ridiculousness'.
watch the game. actions speak louder than words. if the game is close, you will start seeing one-sided officiating.
am i saying refs are told to favor one team ? no. they don't need to be told. they already know.
are you saying that conference refs are completely unbiased and independent when some outcomes are much preferred over others ? No, I would counter that your view is 'ridiculousness'.
watch the game. actions speak louder than words. if the game is close, you will start seeing one-sided officiating.
am i saying refs are told to favor one team ? no. they don't need to be told. they already know.
But they are not. They lost to Maryland. So we beat Maryland and Illinois more convincingly and we are 11 points dogs. It’s wacky I️ tell you!
Wow, you have such a low opinion of human nature. I know several refs in various sports at several levels (including one friend who reffed at the major college level for many years) and every last one of them says that they and everyone they know simply do their best, but that they sometimes make mistakes that they didn't see until the review. None of them has ever said they factor in anything about the teams/conferences/people involved.
Does that mean it doesn't happen? Of course not, as there have been officiating scandals in the past and will be again, given how much $$ is involved, but these scandals are so noteworthy because, IMO, they're so rare. If it were happening frequently, I'd also expect to see it discovered much more often and surely, if conferences were involved in this, someone would have been a whistle blower about it, by now. It's really hard to keep large conspiracies a secret, which is why they don't happen much and which is also why theories about them are wrong 99% of the time.
#s....let's simplify my theory and put it to the test.
Fast forward to the conf champ game...UW vs OSU or whoever. The only conf champ that has a shot to make the playoff is UW. Do you truly believe that the refs are equally likely to call significant penalties on either team ? I don't. Too much at stake for the conference.
My theory predicts that the refs will help UW to secure (or try to secure) the undefeated season and a likely playoff spot.
For example...if a close game in the second half the refs may call Holding or OPI on OSU on each drive in the red zone to force FG tries....while UW won't get any drive-killing flags. Or OSU gets flagged on their punt and kick returns. That kind of thing. Again, reffing is a art. There's a lot more to it than looking for infractions.
The game won't be fixed but OSU would have to beat UW and the refs to win the game.
Let's watch that game very closely.
Also, I actually do know of a senior NBA ref who got fired immediately after a game when he called a 6th foul on a star player. Never did another game. So yes, it's about entertainment and $$ more than it is about the rulebook.
Fast forward to the conf champ game...UW vs OSU or whoever. The only conf champ that has a shot to make the playoff is UW. Do you truly believe that the refs are equally likely to call significant penalties on either team ? I don't. Too much at stake for the conference.
My theory predicts that the refs will help UW to secure (or try to secure) the undefeated season and a likely playoff spot.
For example...if a close game in the second half the refs may call Holding or OPI on OSU on each drive in the red zone to force FG tries....while UW won't get any drive-killing flags. Or OSU gets flagged on their punt and kick returns. That kind of thing. Again, reffing is a art. There's a lot more to it than looking for infractions.
The game won't be fixed but OSU would have to beat UW and the refs to win the game.
Let's watch that game very closely.
Also, I actually do know of a senior NBA ref who got fired immediately after a game when he called a 6th foul on a star player. Never did another game. So yes, it's about entertainment and $$ more than it is about the rulebook.
Last edited: