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If the PLAYOFFS started today.... (Week 7)

C

Catch--22

Senior
Sep 29, 2006
2,518
756
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Every Monday(-ish), I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. It also rewards forfeit victories before the week that match-up would've been played. I take care of that before proceeding.

The cutoff on the Playoff Outlook is 3-3 with 27 playoff points. 18 teams have that record. 12 of those teams are in the playoffs, and 6 are out. The next tie-breaker used was wins by defeated opponents. Here is the sliver of difference between these teams:
-- Teams 257 thru 262 -- Morrison (1A), Niantic-Sangamon Valley (2A), Staunton (3A), Litchfield (3A), Rockford East (6A), Guilford (7A)


My adjustments....

Check the forfeits first. None that I noticed.

Next, let's check to see if every conference has at least one team representing it in the playoff field. Praise Jesus, THEY ALL DO!

NO ADJUSTMENTS!

NOTES:
Maybe I'll edit some notes in here on Monday

** is the smallest team in the class
^^ is the biggest team in the class

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 South Elgin at #1 Lincoln-Way East
#17 Homewood-Flossmoor at #16 Naperville North
#25 St. Ignatius at #8 Barrington
#24 Plainfield South** (2360) at #9 Palatine

#29 Bolingbrook at #4 Lyons
#20 Belleville East at #13 Taft
#28 Maine South at #5 Oswego
#21 Huntley at #12 York

Lower Bracket
#31 Lake Park at #2 Naperville Central
#18 Warren at #15 Loyola
#26 Plainfield North at #7 Sandburg
#23 Leyden at #10 Marist

#30 Glenbrook South at #3 Fremd
#19 Downers South at #14 Minooka
#27 Lockport at #6 West Aurora
#22 Niles West at #11 Stevenson


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Lincoln-Way Central at #1 Whitney Young
#17 Hersey at #16 Mount Carmel
#25 Reavis at #8 Glenbard East
#24 Rolling Meadows at #9 Edwardsville^^ (2307)

#29 Wheaton North at #4 Lincoln Park
#20 Hoffman Estates at #13 Addison Trail
#28 Collinsville at #5 St. Charles North
#21 Jacobs at #12 Harlem

Lower Bracket
#31 Mundelein at #2 Downers Grove North
#18 St. Rita at #15 Maine West
#26 West Chicago at #7 Batavia
#23 Andrew at #10 Normal

#30 Brother Rice at #3 Quincy** (1876)
#19 Prospect at #14 Bradley-Bourbannais
#27 Lincoln-Way West at #6 Schaumburg
#22 Moline at #11 Hononegah


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Riverside-Brookfield at #1 Libertyville
#9 Lake Forest #8 Antioch
#13 Wheaton-Warrenville South^^ (1833) at #4 Belvidere North
#12 Fenton at #5 Fenwick

#15 Amundsen at #2 Geneva
#10 Glenbard South at #7 Wauconda
#14 Lake Zurich at #3 Cary-Grove
#11 Senn at #6 Mather

Lower Bracket
#16 United at #1 East St. Louis
#9 Glenwood at #8 Lemont
#13 Oak Forest at #4 Kankakee
#12 Normal West at #5 Springfield

#15 Shepard at #2 Richards
#10 Washington at #7 Simeon** (1374.5)
#14 Crete-Monee at #3 Bloomington
#11 Pekin at #6 Kennedy


~~~ 5A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Freeport at #1 Sycamore
#9 Burlington Central #8 Payton
#13 Lindblom at #4 Prairie Ridge
#12 Noble/UIC at #5 Kaneland

#15 Woodstock at #2 Benet Academy
#10 Grayslake North at #7 St. Francis
#14 Carmel at #3 Nazareth
#11 Marmion at #6 Westinghouse

Lower Bracket
#16 LaSalle-Peru at #1 Triad
#9 Sterling #8 Mahomet-Seymour
#13 Providence at #4 Dunlap
#12 East Peoria at #5 Joliet Catholic** (965.25)

#15 Perspectives/Leadership at #2 Peoria
#10 TF North at #7 Centenniel^^ (1363)
#14 Hillcrest at #3 Morgan Park
#11 Marion at #6 Sacred Heart-Griffin


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Marengo at #1 Dixon
#9 St. Laurence #8 Coal City
#13 Clemente at #4 Rochelle
#12 Ag Science at #5 DePaul

#15 Ridgewood at #2 Sullivan
#10 Morris at #7 Boylan Catholic
#14 Sandwich** (579) at #3 Woodstock North^^ (936)
#11 Corliss at #6 Wheaton Academy

Lower Bracket
#16 Highland at #1 Breese Central
#9 Effingham #8 Carterville
#13 Lincoln at #4 Waterloo
#12 Centralia at #5 Cahokia

#15 Normal University at #2 Manteno
#10 Metamora at #7 Rochester
#14 Jacksonville at #3 Richland County
#11 Columbia at #6 Macomb


~~~ 3A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Stillman Valley at #1 Byron
#9 Richmond-Burton at #8 Montini
#13 Peotone at #4 Du-Pec Coop
#12 Herscher at #5 North Lawndale

#15 Genoa-Kingston at #2 Monmouth-Roseville
#10 King at #7 Dyett
#14 North Boone at #3 South Shore
#11 Phoenix at #6 Princeton

Lower Bracket
#16 Mt. Carmel at #1 Sullivan-Okaw Valley
#9 Roxana at #8 Murphysboro^^ (575.5)
#13 Harrisburg at #4 Williamsville
#12 Clinton at #5 DuQuoin

#15 Benton at #2 Eureka
#10 Peoria Notre Dame at #7 Monticello
#14 Tolono Unity at #3 New Berlin** (444.5)
#11 Olympia at #6 Greenville
 
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4

4Afan

All-Conference
Sep 15, 2001
4,524
4,048
113
Byron/Montini in round 2 would suck. That needs to he a semi game.

Strange that the gap in 3A is only 130 from smallest to largest but every other class has a difference of 400-500.
 
D

Doctor_D

All-Conference
Oct 9, 2016
3,102
2,747
113
4Afan said:
Byron/Montini in round 2 would suck. That needs to he a semi game.

Strange that the gap in 3A is only 130 from smallest to largest but every other class has a difference of 400-500.
Click to expand...
3A school enrollments are basically in the range of 400-500. No way the gap could be that big.
 
crusader_of_90

crusader_of_90

All-American
Nov 1, 2003
11,697
9,581
113
ramblinman said:
Loyola is the two-time defending state 8A champ with a challenging strength of schedule, and they only merit a 15 seed??? ;)
Click to expand...
They did get mollywhopped to open the season and then lost to another 5A team, if you account for Flyer playing up.
 
R

ramblinman_rivals165935

All-Conference
Jul 18, 2001
9,102
2,802
0
crusader_of_90 said:
They did get mollywhopped to open the season and then lost to another 5A team, if you account for Flyer playing up.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the unnecessary reminder.

I thought that the wink emoji would communicate to long-time Edgy posters in the know that the post was written as tongue in cheek given the running joke of newbie posters not understanding the entire premise behind Catch's projections. Apparently not.
 
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B

Bradygok10

Redshirt
May 4, 2023
8
9
0
Edgy, no Wheaton Warrenville South despite being 3-3 and clobbering Wheaton North last weekend? Note: Wheaton Warrenville South’s three losses come against teams with a combined 17-1 record (Lyons, Geneva and St Charles North). They’ll be in at the end. Bank it!
 
S

SiuCubFan8

All-Conference
Jul 27, 2007
6,195
3,986
113
Everly2020 said:
Edgy, no Wheaton Warrenville South despite being 3-3 and clobbering Wheaton North last weekend? Note: Wheaton Warrenville South’s three losses come against teams with a combined 17-1 record (Lyons, Geneva and St Charles North). They’ll be in at the end. Bank it!
Click to expand...
Edgy didn’t write this post.
 
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D

Doctor_D

All-Conference
Oct 9, 2016
3,102
2,747
113
Everly2020 said:
Edgy, no Wheaton Warrenville South despite being 3-3 and clobbering Wheaton North last weekend? Note: Wheaton Warrenville South’s three losses come against teams with a combined 17-1 record (Lyons, Geneva and St Charles North). They’ll be in at the end. Bank it!
Click to expand...
1. This isn’t a post from Edgy
2. If you read the thread title, it’s “if the playoffs started TODAY”
 
C

Cpacmel11

Sophomore
Aug 31, 2001
431
107
31
Catch 22, great work as always!!!

I'm fairly certain Plainfield North is smaller enrollment than Plainfield South in 8A by a whooping 8.5 students. Doesn't change anything but the **
 
R

Red 77

Redshirt
Aug 20, 2024
3
1
0
Everly2020 said:
Edgy, no Wheaton Warrenville South despite being 3-3 and clobbering Wheaton North last weekend? Note: Wheaton Warrenville South’s three losses come against teams with a combined 17-1 record (Lyons, Geneva and St Charles North). They’ll be in at the end. Bank it!
Click to expand...
They are the in 6a
 
C

Chicago312

Junior
Nov 29, 2015
655
275
63
7A lower bracket: DGN, Batavia , Rita---yikes if that holds.
Good gosh 6A needs to be 1-32, northern teams are getting sent south anyway. If this holds ESTL v Washington on one semi, Cary v Fenwick in the other.
 
1

1A Football Guy

Freshman
Jun 28, 2022
70
66
18
Catch--22 said:
Every Monday(-ish), I bracket the 256 playoff teams using the IHSA Playoff Outlook. This is NOT a prediction. These are NOT my opinions. It is simply the most logical way the playoffs would be bracketed, using the IHSA's specific system, if today's standings were the final standings.

Each week I usually have to add/subtract teams to get a true 256. The Outlook doesn't adjust for a conference champion/representative falling below the cutoff. It also rewards forfeit victories before the week that match-up would've been played. I take care of that before proceeding.

The cutoff on the Playoff Outlook is 3-3 with 27 playoff points. 18 teams have that record. 12 of those teams are in the playoffs, and 6 are out. The next tie-breaker used was wins by defeated opponents. Here is the sliver of difference between these teams:
-- Teams 257 thru 262 -- Morrison (1A), Niantic-Sangamon Valley (2A), Staunton (3A), Litchfield (3A), Rockford East (6A), Guilford (7A)


My adjustments....

Check the forfeits first. None that I noticed.

Next, let's check to see if every conference has at least one team representing it in the playoff field. Praise Jesus, THEY ALL DO!

NO ADJUSTMENTS!

NOTES:
Maybe I'll edit some notes in here on Monday

** is the smallest team in the class
^^ is the biggest team in the class

~~~ 8A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 South Elgin at #1 Lincoln-Way East
#17 Homewood-Flossmoor at #16 Naperville North
#25 St. Ignatius at #8 Barrington
#24 Plainfield South** (2360) at #9 Palatine

#29 Bolingbrook at #4 Lyons
#20 Belleville East at #13 Taft
#28 Maine South at #5 Oswego
#21 Huntley at #12 York

Lower Bracket
#31 Lake Park at #2 Naperville Central
#18 Warren at #15 Loyola
#26 Plainfield North at #7 Sandburg
#23 Leyden at #10 Marist

#30 Glenbrook South at #3 Fremd
#19 Downers South at #14 Minooka
#27 Lockport at #6 West Aurora
#22 Niles West at #11 Stevenson


~~~ 7A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#32 Lincoln-Way Central at #1 Whitney Young
#17 Hersey at #16 Mount Carmel
#25 Reavis at #8 Glenbard East
#24 Rolling Meadows at #9 Edwardsville^^ (2307)

#29 Wheaton North at #4 Lincoln Park
#20 Hoffman Estates at #13 Addison Trail
#28 Collinsville at #5 St. Charles North
#21 Jacobs at #12 Harlem

Lower Bracket
#31 Mundelein at #2 Downers Grove North
#18 St. Rita at #15 Maine West
#26 West Chicago at #7 Batavia
#23 Andrew at #10 Normal

#30 Brother Rice at #3 Quincy** (1876)
#19 Prospect at #14 Bradley-Bourbannais
#27 Lincoln-Way West at #6 Schaumburg
#22 Moline at #11 Hononegah


~~~ 6A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Riverside-Brookfield at #1 Libertyville
#9 Lake Forest #8 Antioch
#13 Wheaton-Warrenville South^^ (1833) at #4 Belvidere North
#12 Fenton at #5 Fenwick

#15 Amundsen at #2 Geneva
#10 Glenbard South at #7 Wauconda
#14 Lake Zurich at #3 Cary-Grove
#11 Senn at #6 Mather

Lower Bracket
#16 United at #1 East St. Louis
#9 Glenwood at #8 Lemont
#13 Oak Forest at #4 Kankakee
#12 Normal West at #5 Springfield

#15 Shepard at #2 Richards
#10 Washington at #7 Simeon** (1374.5)
#14 Crete-Monee at #3 Bloomington
#11 Pekin at #6 Kennedy


~~~ 5A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Freeport at #1 Sycamore
#9 Burlington Central #8 Payton
#13 Lindblom at #4 Prairie Ridge
#12 Noble/UIC at #5 Kaneland

#15 Woodstock at #2 Benet Academy
#10 Grayslake North at #7 St. Francis
#14 Carmel at #3 Nazareth
#11 Marmion at #6 Westinghouse

Lower Bracket
#16 LaSalle-Peru at #1 Triad
#9 Sterling #8 Mahomet-Seymour
#13 Providence at #4 Dunlap
#12 East Peoria at #5 Joliet Catholic** (965.25)

#15 Perspectives/Leadership at #2 Peoria
#10 TF North at #7 Centenniel^^ (1363)
#14 Hillcrest at #3 Morgan Park
#11 Marion at #6 Sacred Heart-Griffin


~~~ 4A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Marengo at #1 Dixon
#9 St. Laurence #8 Coal City
#13 Clemente at #4 Rochelle
#12 Ag Science at #5 DePaul

#15 Ridgewood at #2 Sullivan
#10 Morris at #7 Boylan Catholic
#14 Sandwich** (579) at #3 Woodstock North^^ (936)
#11 Corliss at #6 Wheaton Academy

Lower Bracket
#16 Highland at #1 Breese Central
#9 Effingham #8 Carterville
#13 Lincoln at #4 Waterloo
#12 Centralia at #5 Cahokia

#15 Normal University at #2 Manteno
#10 Metamora at #7 Rochester
#14 Jacksonville at #3 Richland County
#11 Columbia at #6 Macomb


~~~ 3A ~~~

Upper Bracket
#16 Stillman Valley at #1 Byron
#9 Richmond-Burton at #8 Montini
#13 Peotone at #4 Du-Pec Coop
#12 Herscher at #5 North Lawndale

#15 Genoa-Kingston at #2 Monmouth-Roseville
#10 King at #7 Dyett
#14 North Boone at #3 South Shore
#11 Phoenix at #6 Princeton

Lower Bracket
#16 Mt. Carmel at #1 Sullivan-Okaw Valley
#9 Roxana at #8 Murphysboro^^ (575.5)
#13 Harrisburg at #4 Williamsville
#12 Clinton at #5 DuQuoin

#15 Benton at #2 Eureka
#10 Peoria Notre Dame at #7 Monticello
#14 Tolono Unity at #3 New Berlin** (444.5)
#11 Olympia at #6 Greenville
Click to expand...
1A?
 
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