If JB throws 87 mph FB against these guys
- Thread starter stateu1
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Go ahead and get ready because they are going to light him up. He had a decent start against Vandy. A mediocre start against Samford in which the offense had to score 9 to win. He gets a lot of credit for being “good” by the fanbase without actually being very good. I think it stems from that 1 really good start against USM last year. JP France is the better option and the better pitcher in general. Statistically it’s not even close.
We're going to use Billingsley somewhere vs. OSU. It may as well be early in a possible two game stretch. If he's locating, great, if not pull him early and bring in France. Got a feeling Gary is way more in tune with Jacob than we are and feels this is the best spot for him to do us some good. I hope he pitches well.
Stop freaking panicking for goodness sakes. Billingsley has been pretty damn good his last few starts. Have faith and let it roll
At some point, a player not named Ethan Small will have to step up and deliver. That can be against OSU or in the championship game series, but it has to happen at some point. Pitching Small against OSU on Friday is like kicking the can down the road in my opinion. Billingsley will have to give us a good start and step up at some point in the next 3 games. Pilk has done his part.
It’s no better to throw Small Friday and then put Billingsley against AK or FL in a championship series. Billingsley has proven he can step up and keep the game manageable. France can hopefully take over from there. It is what it is with the pitching staff we have. I have no idea how it turns out, but we’ve had a lot of guys step up with the bats too. We’ve controlled what we can control. We’ve stayed in the winner’s bracket and only have to beat OSU once. That was the best case scenario at the beginning of all of this, so we’ve done what we can do.
It’s no better to throw Small Friday and then put Billingsley against AK or FL in a championship series. Billingsley has proven he can step up and keep the game manageable. France can hopefully take over from there. It is what it is with the pitching staff we have. I have no idea how it turns out, but we’ve had a lot of guys step up with the bats too. We’ve controlled what we can control. We’ve stayed in the winner’s bracket and only have to beat OSU once. That was the best case scenario at the beginning of all of this, so we’ve done what we can do.
Throwing Small is just flat out admitting you are playing for a 2nd place finish. Take your chance now and hope the bats can beat a tired OSU pitching staff.
This is simply not true. Throwing Small on Friday would allow us to throw him again on Wednesday. By not throwing him Friday, you are essentially trusting Billingsley on Friday to win a game more than you are trusting Pilk on Monday and Bill on Tuesday to force a game 3 in the Finals (that's 2 chances to win 1 game with your 2 and 3 pitchers instead of 1 chance to win 1 game with your 3 pitcher) to get back to Small. If we lose Friday, we are going to burn our entire pen up before the finals even start, and we are not going to have our ace for a single game in the finals. It's a borderline insane move we are making considering our starting pitching depth, but Gary has gotten us this far.
ETA: Obviously, we aren't out of the tourney if Bill loses Friday, but it kills our pitching for the finals (in reference to the 1 game to win 1 comment).
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I agree with you, except for the borderline insane part. The truth is, both strategies have some merit. Pitching Billingsly is a gamble. The risk is you lose your ace for the championship series (which is a MUCH bigger risk than a lot of people seem to realize). But the potential benefit is you could use him in Game 1 Monday if you win Friday. I hope Henderson wins this bet.
Your logic is sound, but assuming you make the finals pitching Small Friday - will we still be alive on Wednesday for Small to start?
The who to start Friday decision is not simple.
The who to start Friday decision is not simple.
1) We aren’t trusting Billingsley to win the game. We have a fully rested staff vs an OSU staff that will be somewhat depleted. We need 3-4 good innings out of Bilingsley, that’s it. We can afford to have a quick hook with everyone and pull anyone at the first sign of trouble. That is the position we are in.
2) Again, the difference in Small throwing Friday vs. Small throwing Saturday is probably only a couple of innings worth of availability on Wednesday. We WILL use him if we have to on Wednesday if he throws on Saturday.
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We have to win 3 more games to win a title. No win is more important than the other in the grand scheme. We just need 3 more. If we lose Friday, we are going to have to play 5 games in 6 days against national seeds and we will run out of pitching by Tuesday. It's going to be a shot to the heart. Yes, obviously, best case scenario is to pitch Bill on Friday and win, but the cost of losing that game is a lot more than people seem to realize. The cost of only getting to throw Small in game 3 of the series instead of game 1 is a lot less damaging, because someone besides Small has to win a game in the championship series for us to win it anyway.
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Oregon State is averaging over 9 runs a game in the CWS against better arms than Bill and a loss in this game destroys any pitching for the second half of the championship series, assuming we make it that far. It's a huge risk/reward play and I hope to be on here eating crow.
Yeah, but you're royally screwed if you throw Small tomorrow and they hit him well. It's better to play a decent hand and hope he comes out strong, while keeping that ace up your sleeve.
Have you ever played Bourre?**
Have you ever played Bourre?**
You're in the exact same situation you would be in if Bill gets hit hard, and if Small gets hit hard Friday then it's pretty reasonable to expect Bill would have as well so you'd be in the same boat. If they smoke our ace, they are probably going to end up in the finals instead of us anyway.
To simplify this a bit. We have to win 3 more games to win the title. Pitching Small on Friday gives us the chance to let him pick up 2 of those wins, and we only have to win 1 more from our fairly mediocre #2 - #4 starters. If we save him for Saturday or Monday, he can only win 1 of those games for us.
JB will be fine as long as he doesn't walk a high number of folks. He has lots of movement on his pitches which is sometimes why he has trouble keeping things in the strike zone.
Saving Small means if Billingsly does get hit hard and we go to a second game, they're facing our ace, while we're deeper into their bullpen. I like that matchup better than Friday Small vs more lightly into their pen.
We need to do whatever is necessary to win in one game.
Definite advantage, if the other bracket goes two games.
Will hurt us, if we go two games, and the Hogs win in one.
Stuff the Beavers!
Definite advantage, if the other bracket goes two games.
Will hurt us, if we go two games, and the Hogs win in one.
Stuff the Beavers!
To me, everyone in this thread is missing the point. It's the right decision to not pitch Small on Friday, but France should be the guy starting. He's better in every statistical category and is much more likely to give us 7 innings than JB. France was awesome in his last start against OU in the regional championship. No knock on JB, I think he would be very good out of the pen, but I just feel that France has been our 2nd best pitcher all year. AND it would set up France to start game 3 of finals if necessary.
I was under the impression that the only reason France hasn't been our Sunday starter all year is b/c he was more valuable coming in Friday and then again on Sunday. But this is not an SEC weekend and France has only pitched 1 inning and that was last Saturday. Crazy to me that he is not starting especially against this OSU lineup.
I was under the impression that the only reason France hasn't been our Sunday starter all year is b/c he was more valuable coming in Friday and then again on Sunday. But this is not an SEC weekend and France has only pitched 1 inning and that was last Saturday. Crazy to me that he is not starting especially against this OSU lineup.
So Pilk is mediocre now? Yeah, he had a rough 2nd half of the regular season, but he’s a 3rd round pick and he’s been pretty good in his last 2 starts. Especially good on Tuesday against UNC.
Nah.... if he throws 87 mph fastballs, they will likely pull them all foul, and get in a hole where his off-speed stuff will be more effective!***
I think we will see a good bit of France in this game, but i could also Henderson trying to save him for a Saturday game just in case it comes to that. I believe he is going to try to use what he can to get through Friday if we can without using the best pitchers. I really think he is just trying to stay in normal rotation and having france, gordon, neff, and james all ready to come and relieve from the pen. I say if Billingsley gets in trouble pull him early just like we did in 13 with a bunch of guys and then put in france for the duration.
Agreed.
"borderline insane" = same as "I wouldn't do it"....glad you're not our head coach (not talking about you, hatfield)
None of the 3 wins are more important than the other, but just saying we have to win 3 is over simplifying it. We play either 1 or 2 games against a team with a depleted pitching staff, and then either 2 or 3 games against a team that we have to assume, at this time, is going to be a 3-0 Arkansas team that is completely fresh from a pitching standpoint. We cannot plan like the next 3-5 games like they are all created equal. Game 3 in the championship series might be the most important game of them all, or it might not even get played. So, trying to burn Small earlier in a non-elimination game so he can be at full strength in that one is a dicey proposition. I still contend that he will pitch in that game if needed if he doesn’t pitch in Game 1.
Which might actually be an advantage against a team that's very aggressive at the plate.
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