I don't know what the GFDL is...

[Xenomorph]

...but this got my attention. Notice the last frame is the forecast for Friday.

Click on the "FWD" button on the right

 

[Xenomorph]

...but this got my attention. Notice the last frame is the forecast for Friday.

Click on the "FWD" button on the right

 

[slickdawg]

It's Princeton's world renown Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Model - one of the most respeceted in oceanography and meteorology.

If you read the National Hurricane Center discussions on active tropical cyclones, you'll see them use two models often - GFS - NOAA's Global Forecast System and GFDL.

All of that said, it's pretty aggressive on this tropical disturbance. I doubt it will go from an undeveloped storm to a borderline cat 4/5 in the next 4-5 days.

 

[slickdawg]

In English - its way to early to tell. Tropical cyclogenesis is a tough field to forecast - some disturbances you think will become something fizzle out, and others turn into Katrina like storms. </p>

 

[3000lbchicken]

doesn't look good by that model, does it?

 

[Shmuley]

to include Saturday. And the last frame still has "it" well out in the gulf.

God bless hurricane forecasters. It's easier to forecast female mood swings.

 

[slickdawg]

A spread from Belize to Bermuda - yeah, the models have a great grasp of this one.

 

[slickdawg]

But if the GFDL is right, there will be a cat 3/4 in the central gulf on Sunday. At that location, it will be over the loop current and will explode into a 5.
Too bad models are horrible 5 days out.

 

[Xenomorph]

It intensified from from something called an invest to what will probably be named a hurricane later tonight in just 24 hours and now the models agree more.

 

[redfish66]

UPDATED GFDL

scary potential</p>

 

[graddawg]

That is scary. Fill up now because we could be looking at $5/gallon gas this time next week if GFDL is correct.

 

[wpnetdawg]

nm

 

[Shmuley]

that the current models demonstrate, once aGAIN, that this is that mutha[17]er George Bush's fault.

/sarcasm [yes, I had to insert this]

 

[ShaNaNa]

</a><a href="http://www.crownweather.com/gustav.html">http://www.crownweather.com/gustav.html

 

[TR.sixpack]

That sucker will change course. It always happens.

2-3 days out, with computer models in agreement, is another story all together. Jeez, I don't wanna have to go through that crap aGAIN.

 

[3000lbchicken]

opportunity
</p>

 

[Xenomorph]

And yeah, I know.. they fluctuate a lot. I remember they missed the landfall of Charley by a go-zillion miles. BUT.. if there's a category 3 just north of Cuba on Saturday or Sunday, that will be reason enough for mild hysteria in New Orleans.

 

[TR.sixpack]

If the computer models have that thing pointed at the mouth of the river, I will be in full-on freak-out mode. However, Gustav will change course many times between now and then.

 

[graddawg]

So you're saying those staying overnight in LA after the game might be caught up in Interstate gridlock?

 

[TR.sixpack]

People won't even think about evacuating until 2 days prior to landfall. Ruston is far enough north it will be unaffected on Sunday.

Anyway, if it's pointed at Louisiana 7-8 days out, that means it will probably go somewhere else. The computer models are accurate for only about 2 days, meaning Cuba's <17>ed, but everything after that is an educated guess.

 

[beachbumdawg]

And yeah, I know.. they fluctuate a lot. I remember they missed the landfall of Charley by a go-zillion miles. BUT.. if there's a category 3 just north of Cuba on Saturday or Sunday, that will be reason enough for mild hysteria in New Orleans.

well when is the last time New Orleans suffered a direct hit? (and no it was not Katrina dispite what the media says)

 

[99jc]

Most of the computer models forecast the development of two more tropical waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the coming week, and it is possible we will have three or four simultaneous named storms in the Atlantic a week from now.

 

[Porkchop.sixpack]

often make property improvements to Cuba.

 

[slickdawg]

While tropical systems often change their course and make the forecasters go "huh" - for whatever reason, this year, the models have been more accurate than in previous years.

The thought of a cat 4/5 headed to Nola (thus waxing the coast AGAIN) is sickening.

 

[TR.sixpack]

You can't start freaking out until it's 3 days out. Anywhere from Brownsville to Miami is threatened.

 

[redfish66]

THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE OF HURC
GUSTAV THAT IS NOW PROJECTED TO REACH THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A
RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL SYSTEM. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BE IN THE NRN GULF MOVING ESE. THIS 2-300MB
TROUGH COULD VERY WELL SERVE TO TURN GUSTAV BEFORE IT CAN PROGRESS
TOO FAR WEST...WE`LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.