I don't bet games

[MM1994]

but I can't believe PSU is a favorite to win this game. My guess loss by 10 or more hate to say.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

but I can't believe PSU is a favorite to win this game. My guess loss by 10 or more hate to say.

I think Matt Campbell and his imported ISU Brain Trust have this whole thing figured out.

 

[KingLando]

but I can't believe PSU is a favorite to win this game. My guess loss by 10 or more hate to say.

Lots of money is being put on Penn State right now
Is it foolish? Maybe
Did I bet on USC? Absolutely
Could we be overreacting to 6 quarters of football? Sure
Could Northwestern be very good? Sure
We'll find out soon enough.

 

[johnmpsu]

Never bet on anything you're emotionally connected to.

 

[MtNittany]

Never bet on anything you're emotionally connected to.

I have done it in the past - w/ small bets on tour players I know and see all the time. I was holding $1,250 tickets on $5 bets both times Eric Cole lost in a playoff. Eric is a known quantity now though and the numbers just aren't there.

 

[Grant Green]

This seems like a game where Joe Public will be all over USC.
NFM.

 

[Ram20]

As someone who does bet a little, this one really feels like a trap. It's so similar to the Oklahoma vs. Michigan game where OKLA was only laying 5.5. Everyone and I mean EVERYONE was putting money on Oklahoma "easiest money you'll ever make" all over online place. Remember, Michigan had basically lost to western michigan the week before. We know how that ended. I am not afraid to put money on a Penn State game, but I'd stay far away from this one. Maybe it has to do with USC being 2-8 when travelling to the east.

 

[PSUFTG]

but I can't believe PSU is a favorite to win this game. My guess loss by 10 or more hate to say.

I think a lot of fans - understandably - don't realize how screwed up USC is.

Their defense is flat-out awful - especially the back 7 (and even their defensive front is likely to have one of their best players out)

Offensively, they lost essentially their whole receiving corps from last year - replaced most of them with freshman (very good freshmen) - but have since lost their best WR for the year (IIRC, at least for this game - think of a Kolby Howard type loss). Their dynamite FR TE (think a Rappleyea type - but a level better) is also, IIRC, likely out of this one with injury.
So they are basically going with the "second tier" of last year's freshmen recruits to fill in those receiver spots. That is far from ideal.

Their TBs are solid. That helps them.
Their OL is OK (but they - injuries again - lost their best OL, their Center, with injury - again, IIRC, for the season)

So it is basically up to Maelava to throw that team on his back and carry them - largely by himself. And the one (and I think, only) strength PSU has shown thus far is their cornerback play - which makes it a bit tough for USC.


I am SURE PSU fans could list at least as many challenges for PSU right now. And, to be honest, I don't think PSU could beat ANYONE they way they played last weak (against a NW team that was - any wailing to the contrary - very poor, especially given the injury situation NW faced last week)

But you put that all together and I think it is reasonable that the expectations are:
- Who TF Knows?
- Which team will be less sh$tty than the other?
- Can PSU somehow elevate at least a bit from their overall crappy level of play as of late?
- Can the USC QB carry their team?
- How much does the cross country trip hurt USC? (IMO, maybe THE key element to the whole analysis)
- To use a trite phrase - Who wants it more? PSU supposedly had a "come to Jesus meeting" team powwow after the Wisconsin game - obviously that sure as hell didn't work. Will they get their crap together this week? USC has got to be aware of the heat and discontent wrt Riley and their staff, and the fact that it appears at this stage that they once again have an "underachiveing" (at least according to hopes and expectations) team. Where is their head going to be?


Who knows? Coin flip, knowing that pretty much anything COULD happen, seems about right.
I could realistically see EITHER team completely wetting the bed and losing by 20.

 

[MtNittany]

This seems like a game where Joe Public will be all over USC.
NFM.

PSU -1.5 @ -110 on Hard Rock right now.

 

[Grant Green]

PSU -1.5 @ -110 on Hard Rock right now.

I think just about every book is showing the same.

Edit - as soon as I posted this, Bookmaker (sharp book) went to -2.