Hurricane Ian Thread

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Last night Ian began rapid intensification as it moved into a very favorable environment of low shear and warm sea surface temperatures and currently has winds of 75mph. This is expected to continue as it moves northward towards Cuba and then the US and could make a run at category 4. The forecast track is starting to solidify to a Florida landfall somewhere between Tampa and Tallahassee. Based on current forecasts, impacts will be very limited for the MS/AL Gulf coasts. As the storm draws closer surf will be heavy and rip currents will be an issue so if you have a beach trip planned for the second half of this week be very mindful of that if you get in the water and don't be surprised if you see double red flags. Aside from that those of us here will be hard pressed to even know there is a storm. If you are in the path of the storm there is still hope that right before it makes landfall it starts to become impacted by wind shear which weakens it down to below major hurricane status. Still a lot at play there so prepare as if you will be impacted by a major storm and then consider yourself fortunate if you are not.

 

[Captain Ron]

I am preparing and watching closely as I am in the cone in SW Florida.

A good resource here is Levi. No hype and not a grifter.. just the data.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

He has a video update generally each evening

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I feel like I could've come up with some of those models once it got north of Cuba. Looks like the weather guy handed a crayon to his toddler.

 

[willi13]

Where are you? We are in Bradenton but all of the schools down here are closing tomorrow. We are riding it out.

 

[Bulldog Bruce]

My daughter just bought her first house in Cape Coral on Friday. She was scheduled to fly to Memphis on Thursday but AA Waived change fees because of Ian and she is flying Tuesday to get here for my HOF Induction. Hope the Tallahassee line is the path for her sake.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

All of those models use the same data, but have just one or two small items changed and that is enough to get these wild spread in track forecasts. Just goes to show how very small changes can have dramatic effects on where hurricanes end up.

 

[LocalBeachBum]

If the house is damaged, she will need to have moved inside it for FEMA. Gulfport mayor Brent Warr got into trouble filing a FEMA claim for a house he was not living in at the time.

 

[thatsbaseball]

Pretty significant evac orders in the Tampa area

https://www.wesh.com/article/evacuations-tampa-hurricane-ian/41388575

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Ian starting to look impressive. Winds now 100mph.

 

[Cantdoitsal]

If anyone has ever been to Anna Marie Island, I feel your pain. This Sux.

 

[PBDog]

All of those models use the same data, but have just one or two small items changed and that is enough to get these wild spread in track forecasts. Just goes to show how very small changes can have dramatic effects on where hurricanes end up.

Yet we trust climate experts to predict the global temperature in 2050??

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Please don’t ruin this thread.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Outer bands are producing waterspouts/ tornadoes over the Keys.

Also some of the latest model runs are showing a pronounced shift east. If this holds landfall will be further south than currently anticipated.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Ian now a major hurricane with 125mph winds. Outer bands have been affecting Florida for some time now. Landfall expected as a major hurricane somewhere between Tampa and Cape Coral.

 

[Xenomorph]

Did the track shift overnight slightly more east? To my eye the “near worst case” scenario for Tampa just became absolute worst case.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

[TWEET]1574698469301837824[/TWEET]

 

[Xenomorph]

Wow.. at this point if you’re Tampa you’ve just got to hope it moves east a little more so at least the bay is on the clean side.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Definitely hope it moves a little more east. Storm surge could be horrendous if it were anywhere to the west of that track.

 

[willi13]

Absolutely devastating! We live off the causeway to Anna Maria and the storm surge will be indescribable.

 

[STATEgrad04]

I feel like I could've come up with some of those models once it got north of Cuba. Looks like the weather guy handed a crayon to his toddler Jarrell Powe.

Fixed it for you.

 

[RocketDawg]

I may be wrong but it looks now like it'll be between Tampa and Ft Myers, meaning Ft Myers would be on the bad side of the storm. And that's a pretty populous area as well. Looks like it took a bit of a right turn after exiting Cuba this morning.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

It's at 120mph now and will make a run at cat 4. Lots of bad scenarios depending on the exact track storm surge wise.

 

[Bill Shankly]

Definitely hope it moves a little more east. Storm surge could be horrendous if it were anywhere to the west of that track.

Not if you are in Ft. Myers/Cape Coral/Sanibel area. I've spent some time there. That area is very low lying, and they are talking a 12 foot surge, that will be devastating.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

I would not want to be in the Ft. Myers Bay area. Really worst case scenario with the angle of the storm

 

[Bill Shankly]

I would not want to be in the Ft. Myers Bay area. Really worst case scenario with the angle of the storm

They are saying that a LARGE part of Ft. Myers/Cape Coral is going to be underwater. I know the area they are talking about. It's going to be terrible.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Ian making a run at cat 5. Winds now 155mph. .

 

[cowbell88]

Total devastation. Praying for everyone in this area.

 

[mcdawg22]

It’s crazy I am 400 miles from that storm but we went to the beach yesterday evening and I have never seen the current of the water moving so much from East to West. With Michael the surf was so high you couldn’t notice it, but we have had a N wind so it’s pretty flat and the ripples of the water are perpendicular to the beach. It looks like a river.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Air Force Recon flight found 180mph flight level winds. That hasn't translated down to the surface, but this storm is more than capable of making that final push to a cat 5. That said, it's not like the damage will be more significant if it gains those last couple mph. This storm is going to destroy whatever it comes across when it makes landfall.

 

[Cooterpoot]

My place at Sanibel is going to be gone.....
On a side note, all the FL folks with electric cars are about to be screwed with electricity out for possibly weeks

 

[HailStout]

My place at Sanibel is going to be gone.....
On a side note, all the FL folks with electric cars are about to be screwed with electricity out for possibly weeks

I will go out on a limb and guess that gasoline isn’t readily available down there right now and won’t be for sometime either. Hell, at this point I’m worried about them just having drivable roads. I I really am dreading the reports that are going to start coming in later today.

 

[Cooterpoot]

I will go out on a limb and guess that gasoline isn’t readily available down there right now and won’t be for sometime either. Hell, at this point I’m worried about them just having drivable roads. I I really am dreading the reports that are going to start coming in later today.

FL will recover much faster than MS would. FL is light years ahead of MS. On another side note, those solar panels will be handy.

 

[tcdog70]

I'm in the pole business--sad to say there is a severe shortage of Utility poles. Don't know where they will find any.

 

[Cooterpoot]

Sanibe/Captiva is going to be completely underwater. They're talking 15-20 ft surge now.
Water is already starting to move.
This is going to be 17ing painful. It's been a ****** 17ing year for me.

 

[Kenny.sixpack]

My place at Sanibel is going to be gone.....
On a side note, all the FL folks with electric cars are about to be screwed with electricity out for possibly weeks

Actually, I bought an electric car with the side benefit of being able to drive it after a hurricane. Put a natural gas generator on the house and the gas company has never shut it off after storms. Gas is almost impossible to find for weeks/month after a storm. Seemed like a great extra benefit. But, we have also always used our boats as diesel and/or gas storage since the tanks are so large.

 

[Kenny.sixpack]

It's a tough recovery. We are still helping with hurricane Michael recovery in Panama City Beach. The battle I've witnessed from so many people with their insurance company first, then with trying to find a contractor, then trying to find materials has been tough. I hope that area is better suited for the recovery effort with large cities and more contractors in the nearby. My immediate advice is be willing to hire a company to fight your insurance company if they drag that out or try to wait you out by not paying the worth right up front. Their plan seemed to me to be to try to wait out homeowners offering low amounts until the homeowner would just crack under financial stress and take whatever they could get.

 

[Bill Shankly]

Sanibe/Captiva is going to be completely underwater. They're talking 15-20 ft surge now.
Water is already starting to move.
This is going to be 17ing painful. It's been a ****** 17ing year for me.

Holy smokes. That will put a huge part of Ft. Myers and Cape Coral underwater as well.

 

[thatsbaseball]

This may not work...Sanibel street cam

https://www.mysanibel.com/live-stre...&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=SanCapChamber

some are still streaming

 

[DerHntr]

Sanibe/Captiva is going to be completely underwater. They're talking 15-20 ft surge now.
Water is already starting to move.
This is going to be 17ing painful. It's been a ****** 17ing year for me.

It looks like it couldn’t be much worse for Sanibel. It’s taking the right eye wall now and won’t get the actual eye.

 

[Bill Shankly]

It looks like it couldn’t be much worse for Sanibel. It’s taking the right eye wall now and won’t get the actual eye.

We took a lot of vacations down there in the late 90s and 00s. It looks bad.