How we finish the SEC season...

[GhostOfJackie]

Let's put this weekend behind us and take a look at the 8 series we have left in the SEC. I will assume that we improve slightly behind the plate as the season progresses. I will also assume that we don't greatly over-succeed or under-succeed our typical expectations. This is how I think we could finish.


Series we should sweep

(H) Missouri, (A) Auburn, (A) Alabama

We should sweep but baseball is baseball, so let's assume we drop one game.

RECORD (8-1)

Series we should win

(H) UK, (H) Ole Miss, (A) South Carolina, (H)A&M

Thankfully, three of these are at home. Let's assume that we take the three home series and drop the South Carolina series on the road.

RECORD (7-5)

Series we will most likely lose

(A) Vandy

I don't think we get swept again this season, so let's say we take the Sunday game on the road in Nashville.

RECORD (1-2)
8)8)8)

Finish out SEC season (16- 8)8)
Current SEC Record (2-4)
FINAL SEC RECORD (18-12)

Assuming we finish 6-0 in our remaining non conference games, that puts our final record at (39-15)

If this team finishes 39-15 with an RPI in the top 10, we are a national seed. Right?

 

[MSUDC11]

Oh yeah, slam dunk national seed if that’s our resume.

 

[missouridawg]

One of the reasons I'm not freaking out is that we have a pretty favorable SEC East draw. We avoid UF, UT, and UGA. We drew Vandy and USCe. UK likely sucks. MIZ is awful.

Our finishing stretch of aTm, USCe, Mizzou, and Bama is pretty manageable. USCe showed some grit this weekend, but they beat a UF team that has shown several chinks in the armor this year. I can see 10 wins in those last 4 series. Meaning we need to get 8 wins in our first 6 series. Everything for a Super Host and manageable Omaha road is in front of us. We just got to go out and get it.

 

[randystewart]

0.00002% chance that the team I have been watching sweeps AU or Bama. Also, every series you have listed as should win is a tossup at best. UK & aTm are better than people here are assuming and Ole Miss is significantly better than us currently. The overall stats page paints a very dark picture of how we are actually performing compared to the competition we have upcoming.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

I'm considering that we drop one of those series (@USC). A&M and UK are by no means a tossup, even after this weekend. The Ole Miss series is always a tossup but I gave us the edge at home. Also because they usually **** the bed.

 

[johnson86-1]

Let's put this weekend behind us and take a look at the 8 series we have left in the SEC. I will assume that we improve slightly behind the plate as the season progresses. I will also assume that we don't greatly over-succeed or under-succeed our typical expectations. This is how I think we could finish.


Series we should sweep

(H) Missouri, (A) Auburn, (A) Alabama

We should sweep but baseball is baseball, so let's assume we drop one game.

RECORD (8-1)

Series we should win

(H) UK, (H) Ole Miss, (A) South Carolina, (H)A&M

Thankfully, three of these are at home. Let's assume that we take the three home series and drop the South Carolina series on the road.

RECORD (7-5)

Series we will most likely lose

(A) Vandy

I don't think we get swept again this season, so let's say we take the Sunday game on the road in Nashville.

RECORD (1-2)
8)8)8)

Finish out SEC season (16- 8)8)
Current SEC Record (2-4)
FINAL SEC RECORD (18-12)

Assuming we finish 6-0 in our remaining non conference games, that puts our final record at (39-15)

If this team finishes 39-15 with an RPI in the top 10, we are a national seed. Right?

That's pretty optimistic. I think 7-2 in the series you think we should sweep, 6-6 in the ones you think we should win, and 1-3 at Vandy is a lot more realistic (and still pretty optimistic).

That'd be 16-14 SEC Record. No clue where that puts us nationally. Probably safely hosting but not a national seed?

ETA: I can't maths.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

That's pretty optimistic. I think 7-2 in the series you think we should sweep, 6-6 in the ones you think we should win, and 1-3 at Vandy is a lot more realistic (and still pretty optimistic).

That'd be 16-16 SEC Record. No clue where that puts us nationally. Probably safely hosting but not a national seed?

You mean a 16-14 record. We only play 30 SEC games. I think we need to be closer to 20 SEC wins to lock up a national seed. Either way it doesn't matter. We need to be playing well when it matters.

 

[thekimmer]

Sweep Bama? They beat arky by 16...

Let's put this weekend behind us and take a look at the 8 series we have left in the SEC. I will assume that we improve slightly behind the plate as the season progresses. I will also assume that we don't greatly over-succeed or under-succeed our typical expectations. This is how I think we could finish.


Series we should sweep

(H) Missouri, (A) Auburn, (A) Alabama

We should sweep but baseball is baseball, so let's assume we drop one game.

RECORD (8-1)

Series we should win

(H) UK, (H) Ole Miss, (A) South Carolina, (H)A&M

Thankfully, three of these are at home. Let's assume that we take the three home series and drop the South Carolina series on the road.

RECORD (7-5)

Series we will most likely lose

(A) Vandy

I don't think we get swept again this season, so let's say we take the Sunday game on the road in Nashville.

RECORD (1-2)
8)8)8)

Finish out SEC season (16- 8)8)
Current SEC Record (2-4)
FINAL SEC RECORD (18-12)

Assuming we finish 6-0 in our remaining non conference games, that puts our final record at (39-15)

If this team finishes 39-15 with an RPI in the top 10, we are a national seed. Right?

nm

 

[wsjmsu75]

That was one fluky game. The real Bama showed up against Northern Miss.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

You mean a 16-14 record. We only play 30 SEC games. I think we need to be closer to 20 SEC wins to lock up a national seed. Either way it doesn't matter. We need to be playing well when it matters.

18 SEC wins should get any team a for sure Regional host site, and likely a national seed. 19+ is a guaranteed national seed.

 

[oxfordrebel22]

That was one fluky game. The real Bama showed up against Northern Miss.

They have some dudes that can really hit. They’re better than Auburn, for sure. We also got the benefit of not facing their ace, who by all accounts is really, really good. They aren’t great by any means, but they will win 12-13 conference games.