1-Duke
2-UVA
3-UNC
4, 5, 6 TN, Gonzaga or Big Ten winner
7-UK
8-Big Ten loser
2-UVA
3-UNC
4, 5, 6 TN, Gonzaga or Big Ten winner
7-UK
8-Big Ten loser
How the seeds should be
- Thread starter HalHR2500
- Start date
I think they should be:
1. Duke
2. UVA
3. UT
4. Gonzaga
5. Kentucky
6. North Carolina
7. MSU
8. Michigan
1. Duke
2. UVA
3. UT
4. Gonzaga
5. Kentucky
6. North Carolina
7. MSU
8. Michigan
That's basically how I have them currently. I flip flopped UNC and UK, just because I think that's more likely what the committee will do. We own the head to head and the number of quad 1 wins is the same I believe.....but there's happen to be of slightly higher quality (the Duke wins, the win over Gonzaga are better than our best win against UT).
I also think there's a chance Michigan St jumps up should they factor in the Big Ten title game.......which I'm not completely certain they do.
So yeah......prob looking at 5th overall or 6th.........similar to 2017 lol
I think we should be 5/6 with UNC. I don’t think their Duke wins are actually better. If Duke is overall 1, I think the committee has to discount losses without Zion. If you discount Duke losses without Zion, then you should also discount the UNC wins with no Zion.
If they put us side by side with UNC, then they should flip us in front when they scrub the list.
Of course they can eliminate this by putting a buffer team between us and UNC in MSU. I don’t think this is would be right, given MSU’s really bad losses, but I don’t put anything past the committee. Really, teams 3-8 are close enough that they can jack around with it a lot of different ways and feel justified.
Assuming TN and Mich St win, I see
East-Duke, Michigan
South-UVA, UK
Midwest-UNC, Mich St.
West-TN, Gonzaga
Not sure who would quarrel with any of those seeds or regions, Virginia has no cache to ***** about being a 1 seed in Louisville.
They won’t put us in dukes bracket not if their overall 1. Michigan
I think UT and Carolina in the same bracket seem destined to play since they are the big discussion.
UVA/UK in the south would make the most sense but I think it’s 50/50. If they seed with geography in mind this will happen.
West will be Gonzaga with MSU or perhaps UK flipped with the south
Maybe barney pushes for white the number one overall and white pushes us to the south. There will be a definite dynamic at play there
I think UT and Carolina in the same bracket seem destined to play since they are the big discussion.
UVA/UK in the south would make the most sense but I think it’s 50/50. If they seed with geography in mind this will happen.
West will be Gonzaga with MSU or perhaps UK flipped with the south
Maybe barney pushes for white the number one overall and white pushes us to the south. There will be a definite dynamic at play there
I think I have the Zags ahead of UT, but that doesn't matter since the Zags stay out West and UT goes to the Midwest.
Really hope the Big 10T winner doesn't get moved ahead of us, since they will put them in the South because Louisville is the closest to them geographically.
I can't see how UNC could be ahead of us when we have the same record, we won head to head, and have more Quad 1 wins.
I have this feeling it ends up like this:
East- Duke/UK
South- UVA/Big 10T winner
West- Zaga/Big 10T loser
Midwest- UT/UNC
They'll rank the 2 lines however they want to get the matchups they want.
Duke/UK in the Regionals would be ratings gold. Bet that's what we will see.
I would hope they separate UK, TN, Duke and Carolina, those are the 4 best teams, entertaining teams for a Final Four. Would not surprise me a bit to see that as the Final Four
If we are beside UNC, then we should be in front of them since we beat them head to head. What I’m worried about is MSU passing us if they win today. I don’t think they should because of their bad losses, but I don’t quite trust the committee for some reason.
I’m not speaking from a rational/logical perspective but more so what I think may happen.
Two different opinions here:
What I think: (UT and Zags Flip based on SECT)
East - Duke (1), Big Ten Winner (7)
South - Virginia (2), Kentucky (5)
Midwest - Tennessee (3/4), UNC (6)
West - Gonzaga (4/3), Big Ten Loser (8)
What I think the committee will do:
East - Duke (1), Big Ten Winner (6)
South - Virginia (2), Tennessee (5)
Midwest - UNC (4), Kentucky (7)
West - Gonzaga (3), Big Ten Loser (8)
What I think: (UT and Zags Flip based on SECT)
East - Duke (1), Big Ten Winner (7)
South - Virginia (2), Kentucky (5)
Midwest - Tennessee (3/4), UNC (6)
West - Gonzaga (4/3), Big Ten Loser (8)
What I think the committee will do:
East - Duke (1), Big Ten Winner (6)
South - Virginia (2), Tennessee (5)
Midwest - UNC (4), Kentucky (7)
West - Gonzaga (3), Big Ten Loser (8)
Agree 100%. And it makes a great S Curve if you don't mind UK going West with the Zags, with no one really having much right to complain.
But I just heard the Selection Committee chair on ESPN talking up UNC, meaning I'm going to be really, really, really angry later this afternoon, almost regardless of what happens to UK.
It's absolutely 100% insanely hypocritical to give Duke the #1 overall seed despite the losses without Zion (which is going to happen, and I don't disagree with it) but then turn around and reward UNC for beating Duke twice without Zion.
Frickin' UNC lost to UK, lost Michigan, lost to Virginia at home, and only played the next 2 best ACC teams, Florida St and Va Tech, once each, both at home. No bleeping way in hell should they be a 1 seed.
Yeah, that too.
UNC has been really good recently. They are 100% deserving of a 2 seed, and I wouldn't argue against it.
But it's complete BS if they get a 1, because that's based ENTIRELY on beating Duke twice without Zion. The Duke team that they beat is the same team that lost to Va Tech and almost (probably should have) lost to Wake Forest at home. Without those 2 wins, or if those games were never played and UNC beat teams like Fla St and Va Tech instead, they'd CLEARLY be behind UT, UK, and possibly both Big 10 teams.
I was listing what I thought they should be. Not saying I expect a fair accounting.
And oh by the way, we are still in front of UNC in the NCAA’s own NET rating, despite their two victories over Duke.
Unfortunately, I could see Duke being the 1 in the East, UVA or UT being the 1 in the South, with UNCheat being the 2, and us being the 2 in the East. I'm going to expect that and be pleasantly surprised if I am wrong.
I can't argue w/ UK being 7th. And that's how I think they committee will have us:
Duke
VA
UNC
Gonzaga
UT
MSU
UK
UM
Maybe flip UT and MSU or UT w/ Gonzaga. Unfortunately yesterday not only cost UK a 1 seed but likely the top overall 2 seed (allowing us to avoid Duke in our region).
Duke
VA
UNC
Gonzaga
UT
MSU
UK
UM
Maybe flip UT and MSU or UT w/ Gonzaga. Unfortunately yesterday not only cost UK a 1 seed but likely the top overall 2 seed (allowing us to avoid Duke in our region).
I think thi sis pretty spot on. I think the committee will put Gonzaga at 3, but in the end it won't matter--they'll be in the West and UT will be in KC regardless.
We will know how screwed we are right away if duke is overall 1 they will so their bracket first.
It might be spot on, but I’ll be kind of shocked if they get it this right.
How can you possibly think UNC deserves to be #3 at the same time Duke deserves to be #1 overall?
Those 2 opinions make absolutely 0 sense when taken together. Think about it.
He's not the only one who's said that (though you can flip UK and Gonzaga). Multiple people here have been saying it since last night. And it fits pretty tightly with the NET ratings, the most objective measure the NCAA publishes. Some minor variations, but all with easy explanations.
But you're probably right. It makes the most sense, so it won't happen.
There is only so many places they can put UK as you can't have 2 ACC teams in the 1 and 2 slots in the same region or whatnot . UK is going to be Duke or UVA's 2 most likely. So not sure that is screwing us. Screwing us is putting us as a 3 seed. UK is somewhere between the 5th and 7th seed.
This is what is should be but I have a feeling UT is going to get screwed and be a 2 seed.
Im kinda feeling that west matchup, having gonzaga and UK......I could see that happen.
But I also feel that they want duke and uk to meet....
I feel the best thing for us, would be to be in the same region as virginia.
But I also feel that they want duke and uk to meet....
I feel the best thing for us, would be to be in the same region as virginia.
Just noticed that Seth Davis has his like mine, only with Gonzaga and Tennessee flipped. I don’t get that, though, because UT beat Gonzaga head to head and should be in front if they are next to each other.
#1 Duke (3rd Place Conference finish, but strong SOS based on advanced metrics and conference tourney champion)
#2 UVA (weak to middling SOS and best win came against UNC when they had 2 players injured, but conversely only 3 losses and a share of ACC regular season). You could argue they deserve overall #1.
#3 UNC (share of ACC regular season, strongest SOS, plus best Quad 1 wins based on metrics like Kenpom (not all quad 1 wins are created equal). They would be a clear #3 normally, but I think they should be dinged a bit for winning the two Duke games without Zion playing, so UT could pass them.
#4 Tennessee (maybe #3 if they win convincingly today as conference champ, but SOS is weak and didn’t win conference regular season)
#5 UK (middling SOS and didn’t win conference regular season or tourney)
#6 Gonzaga (Charmin ultra soft SOS and didn’t win tourney in mid major conference)
#7 MSU (at least #6 and probably #5 with a win today, and they have a reasonable argument for 4th with a convincing win today based on strong SOS + conference champ + regular season champ. My reasoning for 7th is I think injuries they have sustained slightly devalues them if seeding is based on roster.
#8 Michigan (middling SOS)
#2 UVA (weak to middling SOS and best win came against UNC when they had 2 players injured, but conversely only 3 losses and a share of ACC regular season). You could argue they deserve overall #1.
#3 UNC (share of ACC regular season, strongest SOS, plus best Quad 1 wins based on metrics like Kenpom (not all quad 1 wins are created equal). They would be a clear #3 normally, but I think they should be dinged a bit for winning the two Duke games without Zion playing, so UT could pass them.
#4 Tennessee (maybe #3 if they win convincingly today as conference champ, but SOS is weak and didn’t win conference regular season)
#5 UK (middling SOS and didn’t win conference regular season or tourney)
#6 Gonzaga (Charmin ultra soft SOS and didn’t win tourney in mid major conference)
#7 MSU (at least #6 and probably #5 with a win today, and they have a reasonable argument for 4th with a convincing win today based on strong SOS + conference champ + regular season champ. My reasoning for 7th is I think injuries they have sustained slightly devalues them if seeding is based on roster.
#8 Michigan (middling SOS)
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Your #3 lost to your 2 at home, and your 5, and your 8. And hey, throw in losses to Texas and (by a lot) to UL for good measure.
Honestly, f*** the ACC. In college basketball, the favoritism has gone far beyond reason.