How Over Is It?
- Thread starter fluoxetine
- Start date
i will go through these specifically when i have more times, each case is different. you are just throwing a 18-13 record arbitrairly out there and saying see 6 Q1 wins and we wiill get in
right off the bat I believe St Marys was regular season champ in WCC so they were going. New Mexico was not making it for sure if they didnt win the conference tourney I dont even know what point you are trying to make although the last one with Providence basically confirms my feeling on this
for example this group of 6Q1 wins will not get RU in the field
at Nebraska
at Penn State
at Northwestern
Purdue
Michigan State
Illinois
not all Q1 wins are created equal...some very nice wins in there but not enough to overcome nothing on the ooc schedule and 2 Q3 losses. RU would have 4 wins vs schools in the field.
at Nebraska
at Penn State
at Northwestern
Purdue
Michigan State
Illinois
not all Q1 wins are created equal...some very nice wins in there but not enough to overcome nothing on the ooc schedule and 2 Q3 losses. RU would have 4 wins vs schools in the field.
With a Q1 at 6-11 and Q2 3-0 because lets be real ND isnt staying in the top 100...9-11 Q1/2...add in the 4-2 for Q3 and you have 13-13 Q1/2/3
its very similar to Providence who didnt get last year although the plus for RU is the 500 mark vs what Providence had
the issue is there will ALSO BE MANY schools with better metrics, numbers, and wins.... you dont have to have 6 Q1 wins if you are 4-8 in Q1 but 6-1 in Q2..that is very attractive too.,
Right now RU has a WAB of 118....that should be the end of discussion....Rutgers has no better chance of making the tourney than Washington or USC or Colorado or Virginia or Stanford or Kansas State. These are schools no one is considering for tourney spots. Remove your bias. Basically every single major conference school can be put in your scenario
its very similar to Providence who didnt get last year although the plus for RU is the 500 mark vs what Providence had
the issue is there will ALSO BE MANY schools with better metrics, numbers, and wins.... you dont have to have 6 Q1 wins if you are 4-8 in Q1 but 6-1 in Q2..that is very attractive too.,
Right now RU has a WAB of 118....that should be the end of discussion....Rutgers has no better chance of making the tourney than Washington or USC or Colorado or Virginia or Stanford or Kansas State. These are schools no one is considering for tourney spots. Remove your bias. Basically every single major conference school can be put in your scenario
Only way they get into the tourney is if the get their stuff together and win the big ten tournament. Look at nc state last year. That could be Rutgers. Play better defense. Get better as a team, have Dylan/ace on the floor at the same time. Give grant more playing time. Give martini a very short leash.
pj needs to hit some 3s.
pj needs to hit some 3s.
The saddest part of all of this is …
This was supposed to be the most amazing enjoyable exciting season in most of our lifetimes in RU bball
And it’s basically thudded to a halt before we even reach the halfway point of the sports season. And we’re a totally irrelevant team.
I’m having a hard time even looking forward to the next game. That’s nearing Eddie Jordan days type apathy for me. More because of the high expectations and how far we are from those. Depressing on so many levels.
This was supposed to be the most amazing enjoyable exciting season in most of our lifetimes in RU bball
And it’s basically thudded to a halt before we even reach the halfway point of the sports season. And we’re a totally irrelevant team.
I’m having a hard time even looking forward to the next game. That’s nearing Eddie Jordan days type apathy for me. More because of the high expectations and how far we are from those. Depressing on so many levels.
Sure, but the vast majority of them won't actually accomplish it. If one of them does, I would say they are in too.
Then its a useless excercise. Seton Hall can win out and make the tournament. It does mean we have to talk about it
Its more realistic to say this team could eek into the Big 10 tournament and make a run at winning it
We don't have to talk about anything. We don't have to come to this message board at all. But we're here and not technically elimated yet so we might as well talk about it? If I were on the Seton Hall board I would, I guess, talk about that though that is much much more of a longshot than even our scenarios are.
FWIW, Seton Hall can prob finish 15-2 to get in.
I still think an at-large bid is more likely than an auto.. I would put at large bid at something like ~5% and autobid at <1%. I think you are underestimating the probability of going on a run and also underestimating how hard it will be to win the BTT.
This seems like a more reasonable model to me; Bart has always underestimated the variance.
Flux, thanks for doing this.
Question: If Dylan was 100% healthy and we beat both Indiana and Wisconsin, how would these probabilities likely look the rest of the way?
And then if we win our next two (in addition to the previous two), how would that also change the probabilities?
I ask because to my knowledge these statistical sites like Kenpom don’t account for our best player being out.
I also think the return of Dylan with the emergence of Grant and Acuff makes us a significantly better team, and a tougher out in our remaining B1G games.