How many wins to dance? - 13 Games Left

[gmay8]

I know we all have our eyes on much much bigger prizes than simply making the tournament this year... RU is 13-5, (5-2) alone in 2nd place in the BIG.

There are 13 regular season games left (+ BIG Tourney).

How many wins are needed to confirm we 100% make the big dance? Does 6 wins punch our ticket? (19-12, 11-9)?

Just curious as to me that's the first hurdle to get over before setting sights higher.

 

[RUisB1Gtime]

I actually think 18 wins gets us in. You have to remember we have an apology letter for the OSU game which is almost like a 19th win. Hopefully it wont come to that end we end up with minimum 20 wins.( 7-6 rest of the way)..

 

[Degaz-RU]

I’m tempted to weigh in here with a detailed analysis, but I’m just going to say this —

We have a chance to achieve a seed in the 4 to 6 range if we continue to play like we’ve been playing.

But as bac says in his game recaps, we are threading a needle just about every game, and when you struggle on offense as much as we do at times, it’s going to be difficult to sustain winning every game by 2 or 4 points in constant wars. We could just as easily start to struggle, and then we’re back to the bubble.

I’m just going to enjoy the ride and not get caught up in looking too far ahead. It’s a long season, and there’s going to be more twists and turns.

 

[Knight Owl]

I actually think 18 wins gets us in. You have to remember we have an apology letter for the OSU game which is almost like a 19th win. Hopefully it wont come to that end we end up with minimum 20 wins.( 7-6 rest of the way)..

So you trust the committee to adjust for an apology? Oh my lawd.
Pretty sure playing in Dayton isn’t really on the team’s want list. An NCAA 6 seed would be a nice spot to be able to do some damage…
I mean playing a 2,7,10 or 15 seed for an elite 8 spot would be an awesome opportunity.

 

[G- RUnit]

Part of the fun of college basketball ate the bracket discussions. It’s part of the journey. Enjoy it!

 

[FastMJ]

The apology letter doesn't do squat for us. That said, I say we get to 21 wins and make it in rather comfortably.

 

[anon1753890747]

7 more wins we are in comfortably

 

[ScarletDave]

I usually feel like the magic number to 100% guarantee is 20 wins. Given our schedule that would also guarantee enough Q1 wins to avoid any funny business like Nebraska that year who had 20 wins but like 1 or no Q1 wins. We already have 2 and hopefully 3 if Indiana moves up. And lots more opportunities to come.

All that said, NCAA is the prize at the end but every game is the prize for now and it’s just so fun to enjoy this ride, 7 wins in the last 8 just amazing the fun we’re having

 

[Rokodesh]

We need 20 wins minimum

 

[njxchange]

it all depends. Against who & where we win will determine more than just number of wins.

 

[RUPete]

Tough to say. You can go 7-6 the rest of the way but how are you trending towards the end? What is the rest of the potential field doing? How many upsets in the conference tournaments?

 

[RUBubba]

Not 100% positive, but I don't think they like to send a team to Dayton two years in a row.

 

[scarletnewyorker2006]

It depends how we do it. I can see some scenarios where we finish 10-10 and get in and others where we don’t. I’m not really thinking about the dance right now. I want to beat Michigan State more than anything. Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think we’ve ever taken them down in their house. That would be an accomplishment worthy of celebration.

 

[RUPete]

It depends how we do it. I can see some scenarios where we finish 10-10 and get in and others where we don’t. I’m not really thinking about the dance right now. I want to beat Michigan State more than anything. Someone feel free to correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think we’ve ever taken them down in their house. That would be an accomplishment worthy of celebration.

I think you’re right. We came very close in Pike’s first or second year.

 

[armenius]

According to TeamRankings at 19 wins, we have an 11% chance to make the tourney. 51% at 20 wins and 87% at 21. This includes potential Big Ten Tournament games as well though.

We're currently 88% to make it with an 8% chance at Final Four, 1.5% chance at winning the whole thing and most likely a 4 seed according to the site.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/rutgers-scarlet-knights/bracketology

 

[Salvi's Headband]

10-10 in the big gets us in but we should be thinking about getting over the 7,8,9,10 seeding zone.

 

[G- RUnit]

10-10 in the big gets us in but we should be thinking about getting over the 7,8,9,10 seeding zone.

Yes and getting a home game in Albany.
Weirdly 10 seed better than 8-9 IMHO.
Don’t want dreaded 8-9 game.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

Yes and getting a home game in Albany.
Weirdly 10 seed better than 8-9 IMHO.
Don’t want dreaded 8-9 game.

10 is definitely better than 8,9.

 

[bac2therac]

for certainty its 7 more...20 overall

 

[wheezer]

Tough to say. You can go 7-6 the rest of the way but how are you trending towards the end? What is the rest of the potential field doing? How many upsets in the conference tournaments?

a while back it was posted that the NCAA does not consider
season ending streaks...... wins and losses are considered without regard to when they happen...

what we have to do is gather as many league wins as we can, from here on out..... if we can win the home games, enough big games to help

 

[RUPete]

a while back it was posted that the NCAA does not consider
season ending streaks...... wins and losses are considered without regard to when they happen...

what we have to do is gather as many league wins as we can, from here on out..... if we can win the home games, enough big games to help

Agree. Just wish we got at least one those three OOC losses.

 

[Pdabs]

like others said 20 is the magic number so no need to stress on selection Sunday. Been using this for last couple of years.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/rutgers-scarlet-knights/bracketology

 

[SKnight00]

Depends. If we won the next 7, but lost the last 6 and in the first round of the B1G tourney, we’d be in a world of hurt.

 

[Scarlet Blind_rivals]

1) Temple game we were w/out Paul and Caleb, Cam and Derek starting backcourt in only their 4th game together.
2) Miami game w/out Paul and Caleb's second game back.
3) Ohio St. * game led to Seton Hall loss led the run we are on.

13 games left we are favored in all 7 home games, -2 @ Wisc, Pick'em the rest @ Mich St -0.7, @ Iowa -0.4, @ Ind -0.8, @ Ill -0.1, and @ Penn St +0.3. That has never happened in Rutgers history. Just let it play out but we have the potential to be included in the top 16 seeds, #1-#4, this year.

 

[Saint Puppy]

I’m tempted to weigh in here with a detailed analysis, but I’m just going to say this —

We have a chance to achieve a seed in the 4 to 6 range if we continue to play like we’ve been playing.

But as bac says in his game recaps, we are threading a needle just about every game, and when you struggle on offense as much as we do at times, it’s going to be difficult to sustain winning every game by 2 or 4 points in constant wars. We could just as easily start to struggle, and then we’re back to the bubble.

I’m just going to enjoy the ride and not get caught up in looking too far ahead. It’s a long season, and there’s going to be more twists and turns.

Threading the needle is exactly right. We've had a red hot Cam, and needed every bit of him - he will certainly come back to earth at some point. I know we all feel good after the last couple of wins, but there is an obvious truth staring us in the face. Without somebody really stepping up on offense this team will just not have answers in certain games. I see two potential people doing this, but don't have confidence either one can really fill the role for different reasons.....Mag and Simpson. Pike keeps saying how Mag is knocking down all these shots in practice, but it's just not happening in the game - it did yesterday. That being said at best Mag has been very inconsistent, and at worst he just doesn't have it. I think it's somewhere in between - and I don't see him stepping up. I strongly believe Simpson is the real deal, but just needs more time - a LOT more time - and I don't see that being this season.

I know there is a ton of excitement surrounding recruiting right now - and rightfully so. However for this season we were shorted - I fear this will all come back to not coming close to replacing Geo or Ron. Cam is great...for what he does. He is the perfect player for working off a #1 option, but Cam can't really create - and unfortunately we don't have a #1 option. We have elite Defense - and I LOVE watching this team run our opponents shot clock to 0. I am really rooting for this team - and hope Mag turned a corner yesterday offensively (I thought the same last year against Purdue) - but I am hesitant to say that now.

Unfortunately this team is unbalanced, and is begging for answers offensively. I really hope somebody can step up offensively - because if they can this team becomes extremely dangerous and the sky is truly the limit.

 

[Salvi's Headband]

It is rather sobering to think that if just a missed basket here and there we could be on a 3 game losing streak. Then again, that's true of some of our losses too.

 

[Local Shill]

It’s less about number of wins than NET, how many quadrant 1 & 2 wins RU has and avoiding a quadrant 4 loss.

 

[leftoright]

Lunardi bracketology has RU as 6th seed in Midwest v New Mexico.

 

[GORU2014]

Threading the needle is exactly right. We've had a red hot Cam, and needed every bit of him - he will certainly come back to earth at some point. I know we all feel good after the last couple of wins, but there is an obvious truth staring us in the face. Without somebody really stepping up on offense this team will just not have answers in certain games. I see two potential people doing this, but don't have confidence either one can really fill the role for different reasons.....Mag and Simpson. Pike keeps saying how Mag is knocking down all these shots in practice, but it's just not happening in the game - it did yesterday. That being said at best Mag has been very inconsistent, and at worst he just doesn't have it. I think it's somewhere in between - and I don't see him stepping up. I strongly believe Simpson is the real deal, but just needs more time - a LOT more time - and I don't see that being this season.

I know there is a ton of excitement surrounding recruiting right now - and rightfully so. However for this season we were shorted - I fear this will all come back to not coming close to replacing Geo or Ron. Cam is great...for what he does. He is the perfect player for working off a #1 option, but Cam can't really create - and unfortunately we don't have a #1 option. We have elite Defense - and I LOVE watching this team run our opponents shot clock to 0. I am really rooting for this team - and hope Mag turned a corner yesterday offensively (I thought the same last year against Purdue) - but I am hesitant to say that now.

Unfortunately this team is unbalanced, and is begging for answers offensively. I really hope somebody can step up offensively - because if they can this team becomes extremely dangerous and the sky is truly the limit.

I legitimately had to double check that this post was from today and not 2 months ago with the Cam comments. What does this kid have to do to get past the “he’s great, but…” comments?

 

[RUtrumpet92_rivals498139]

I think 11-9 would be enough assuming the net stays strong but I'd be nervous. 12-8 (20 wins) with a solid net would be gold. But I want to be greedy and say get more wins and a top five seed.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Personally …I’m kinda hoping we can put that to bed with Lets Dance 4.0 in the lockerroom in Madison square Garden on February 4th….as a practice run for March 23rd……

 

[Saint Puppy]

I legitimately had to double check that this post was from today and not 2 months ago with the Cam comments. What does this kid have to do to get past the “he’s great, but…” comments?

I'm discussing our offense, and the shortcomings it has a whole. What I said about Cam is not an indictment on him, but rather who he is. Cam gets the most out of his athletic ability of any player on Rutgers - I think he has an incredibly high basketball IQ and I would take a Cam Spencer on my team any day of the week. However, what was true about him '2 months ago' is still true today - he cannot create his own shot. He is our number one offensive threat, but we really need at least one other person who can work with him to keep defenses honest. We don't really have that - it doesn't mean Cam can't be impactful but it does mean he is not being utilized in the best way possible. For example having a Geo or Ron who were scoring threats and could penetrate could really free up Cam and open up the whole offense.

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Just win the next 13 and keep quiet, we'll be fine.

 

[Mr. Magoo1]

19 wins gets us in IMO

 

[Joey Bacala]

We need 20 wins minimum

this ^

 

[anon1753890747]

I legitimately had to double check that this post was from today and not 2 months ago with the Cam comments. What does this kid have to do to get past the “he’s great, but…” comments?

So true GORU2014 I guess he didn’t create any of his own shots against OSU
And if he did it would was because OSU is non ATHLETIC what joke.
If he is not scoring, by creating his own shots he is facilitating the offense with brilliant passing or waiting on others to set him up.
What exactly does non ATHLETIC mean!!!?
So tired of that. Ask Mag or the rest of his teammates or the rest of the Big 10 do they think he is non Athletic

 

[RUPete]

So true GORU2014 I guess he didn’t create any of his own shots against OSU
And if he did it would was because OSU is non ATHLETIC what joke.
If he is not scoring, by creating his own shots he is facilitating the offense with brilliant passing or waiting on others to set him up.
What exactly does non ATHLETIC mean!!!
So tired of that. Ask Mag or the rest of his teammates or the rest of the Big 10 thinks he is non Athletic

Also had 7 rebounds yesterday including a key offensive board that got Zed Key his fourth foul. Love it when guards help out the bigs and crash the boards.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I’m tempted to weigh in here with a detailed analysis, but I’m just going to say this —

We have a chance to achieve a seed in the 4 to 6 range if we continue to play like we’ve been playing.

But as bac says in his game recaps, we are threading a needle just about every game, and when you struggle on offense as much as we do at times, it’s going to be difficult to sustain winning every game by 2 or 4 points in constant wars. We could just as easily start to struggle, and then we’re back to the bubble.

I’m just going to enjoy the ride and not get caught up in looking too far ahead. It’s a long season, and there’s going to be more twists and turns.

If you keep threading the same needle , the hole will eventually wear in larger and get bigger



Winners find ways to win
Losers find ways to lose

Something to consider

 

[RUPete]

If you keep threading the same needle , the hole will hole will eventually wear in larger and get bigger



Winners find ways to win
Losers find ways to lose

Something to consider

I love it when Shack goes all Wooden and philosophical on us!