I'd add, we also had already closed off the main threat, and we had a two week heads up to prep everyone.
How long will this last?
- Thread starter SLOHusker
- Start date
i would basically guarantee this story was a govt plant in order to scare people enough to voluntarily comply. Pretty good tactic
Hope so, but man that report makes it seem like no mass gathering, sports, concerts etc. shouldn’t and won’t be happening for at least 12 months, can’t imagine that
Think of it this way, you go down this street, lotsa bad dudes with bad attitudes every step, or, you go down this street, and some bad dudes getting a few folks.
We still can make that choice, and as a vaccine fires up, and we avoid healthcare helps overload, we should be able to handle lingering problems, we will know when we're there.
Girl I'm currently dating was looking at staying in a Hotel next month for her birthday out of town...I said nothing because I like steady sex, but in the back of my mind I'm thinking, you don't get it do you? Next month is not enough time for this to die down and to travel out of town safely and depend on hotels and restaurants being open, you're silly for trying to reserve that room and or plane ticket. So I just smiled and nodded. Like I said, I'm shameless.
I heard a report that the reason it hit older males in China hard is that a high percentage of them smoke. So there might be something to that.
Perhaps. Guaranteed it's a learning experience and a prep for things that are much worse. People and government can learn from this. The ruskies and the Chicoms are paying attention. Good way to bust our economy
I think it will run a course of 6-8 weeks.
As far as social distancing and effects on the economy go, I actually like the idea of social distancing those over say 60 from the rest of the population.
There is a good chance that at some point, everyone will be exposed to the virus, and rather than face the choice of the economy or the elderly, we should isolate the elderly as best as possible.
This protects those most at risk, while the rest of us can get on with our lives keeping the economy and everything else from collapsing.
As far as social distancing and effects on the economy go, I actually like the idea of social distancing those over say 60 from the rest of the population.
There is a good chance that at some point, everyone will be exposed to the virus, and rather than face the choice of the economy or the elderly, we should isolate the elderly as best as possible.
This protects those most at risk, while the rest of us can get on with our lives keeping the economy and everything else from collapsing.
I know China is easy to use as and example. Im not so sure we can use them as to how this will go here. They locked the whole country down long before this point. They had a lot more test than we do. They were also literally pulling people from their homes and cars and forcing them into quarantine.
China had around 500 reported cases as of Jan 22nd. This was also around the the time Wuhan and other areas of China started going on lock down. After doing so it took almost a month to have peaked Feb 17 with 58,000 active cases. Since that time the active cases have been declining. Now a month later they are currently at around 8,000 active cases.
The US had around 500 reported cases March 8th. So just going off of Chinas time line and us wait an additional 2-3 weeks to start shutting things down. We are looking at another 4-6 weeks before we hit peak around end of April. Then maybe around beginning to middle or end of May we can start returning to normal.
Again I don't think we are going to follow the same time line. They started locking things down with only 500 cases. We seems to have waited another 2-3 before we started to in US. Plus I don't see the US going in and pulling people out to quarantine. IMO I think we are about a month maybe 2 behind the China time line. I think we peak around mid- late May. Maybe we start returning to a normalcy around June sometime. Who knows though. Trump and other have mentioned July or August until we can beback to a normal. Put in this way I wouldn't be planning any summer BBQs or vacations.
The beaches are full of people here in Florida, but I fail to see why this is some sort of problem. Outdoors, it is much more difficult to catch the virus, and it's much hotter down here as well. Many of the spring breaker types are not at risk as other have stated, and probably the main thing that we need to do is isolate those over 60 from everyone else.
In many respects, I don't see why we need to shut everything else down, because in all likelihood, we will all be exposed to it. Why trash the economy when it doesn't need to be?
All these other measures being taken and projections noted in the links from jmliehr, show the flattening of the curve, but also pushing out the curve further and further, in some cases out until Dec 2020.
If that happens, it will likely collapse the economy entirely.
I don't think that is wise at all.
Not sure china has ever had a true test. Ever. They tested for temps etc. We simply don't know. Forcing people from their homes didn't make those people safer, it may have made others safer though.
As far as any real numbers at any point in time coming from china, just add fake news, shake and serve.
They knew in november, in december, they quieted anyone speaking out on this, by january they were overwhelmed.
Whats normal? Everything? Or most everything? Or, smartly allowing for some sports to restart? Empty stafiums at first? Just practices?
Look at Korea for real potential, there, they do have more testing, but there, they're ahead of us by a month or more, so having tests now, we are on par. I used china for how we are ahead, and korea for how we are slightly behind.
Italy is more like china, so is iran.
China currently is over their peak, but it came at a cost, one we're not willing to pay. We are much more like korea, see when life goes back to normal there, then use a timeline.
And,amongst all this, its getting warmer every day, and no virus has ever peaked in april.
What you're mentioning goes without what I just said, no virus has ever peaked in april.
So, in all those numbers, not considering things unknown is not wise either, because, while we dont know the effects or warmer weather on this virus, again, ignoring that none have peaked in april is not wise.
huh? I said nothing about peaking in april.. what does april have to do with anything? Your first sentence didn't make any sense either, but okay.
I have a doctor friend here in KC saying the same thing. They are expecting a peak in mid-May to early June with cases increasing exponentially until that time.
Young people are carriers, their symptoms are minimal and most think they have a common cold. They spread the virus all over doors, bathrooms, etc and it obviously hits the elderly and comprised hardest.
So, anything that allows people,.especially the young to congregate just likely loads up more carriers.
So, anything that allows people,.especially the young to congregate just likely loads up more carriers.
I actually tend to agree with you but unless this is a concerted and organized effort , I do not see it as acceptable to just go out and socialize because you will not die but you may kill someone else
You said this was going to happen, as the findings show this.
In no computer,or best guess have I seen the age old factual reality,that come april, virii tend to have massive dieoffs.
Unless your comments came from somewheres else?
The flattening of the curve ignores april, and may etc.
Pretty much agree. Hoping that people can take a step back in the near future and reassess.
Why do we all of sudden trust scientists? I mean climate change is a complete hoax in order to control society, how is this not a hoax when governments are literally taking control o f society? I mean climate change might kill our children and grandchildren but isn't real so why not risk the lives of the elderly and just go on with our lives.
This is why I think you have to isolate ask risk people, who are 60 and over. We all have a personal risk, so if someone isn’t comfy with that, they can self isolate, just like my 75 year old dad is going to want to go do stuff and is a risk he will take.
I would not characterize it as “killing your dad” as some on the media do, just stay away from at risk people.
I can tell you that if it dissolves into a full blown social breakdown, there will be a lot more problems than the virus. That would truly be devastating.
I think you have to keep things going for the greater good. What may have worked in China may not work as well here. Personal freedoms are non existent in that country and people will conform for the greater good. The US is a very different model.
Last time I checked, climatologists didn't have a hippocratic oath. Besides, most docs made good money, dont have to beg off government droppings
The people making the reports or almost all governmental scientists...most epidemiologist's are directly tied to government funding. Doctors know very little about this virus and have to get advice from those who have treated it to go down the right paths with different patients. I mean the CDC is tax-payer funded, why listen to them but not the 9000 scientists who support that we are causing climate change? I find it hypocritical to put up barrier after barrier to scientific research and even the scientific mindset and now all of sudden when a person's life is on the line they care. I have no problem with people not believing evolution or climate change but at least "really believe" what you believe...all of sudden religion and spirituality goes out the window and we expect science to save us when we have fighting against it for decades...the entire science of virology revolves around genetics and evolution and certain groups have constantly fought against this being taught for the last 30 years...same thing is going to happen as sea-level rises, as crops fail, as ice sheets melt...people are going to all of sudden expect science to fix it, when they have done nothing but stand in the way of progress their entire existence.
Last edited:
Physician, heal thyself?
And neanderthals were close to monkeys too. Theory has a place, doctors needs answers.
Theories can lead to answers, Drs have given many, other scientific ventures haven't yet.
Drs used to let blood, that to me is where we're at at predicting the weather,especially at its finest points, the entire globe and every effect that counts.
Who's fighting science? I just prefer greater honesty, and less hobnobbery.
Private labs do great work, and whether its the private sector or the government sector, at least the healthcare field has a private sector, thus, my point.
Climate wouldnt be my go to if I'm trying to argue in favor of "experts".
Boils down to how many dead Americans you can accept. This virus hits the ICUs hard and 50% of patients intubated don't make it. If they don't have an ICU bed that goes to 100%. So they are trying to slow the spread to a point it doesn't overload the health care system.
Can I ask how old you are and does that taint your view - not picking a fight legit question
I’m not sure how my age (50) has anything to do with it.
I would rather have the healthcare system overloaded for a few weeks than throwing a hand grenade into the economy and blowing everything up, because if you have a prolonged period dealing with this, calling out the National guard and fema camps, I do believe people are going to go apeshit, and nobody is gonna care about the virus then.
So, first come first serve, you, your kids, your wife, your family, they all like russian roulette too?
Once we go down that path, we have no other choices.
There is a herding effect, in which so many have antibodies, it makes it very difficult to spread in high numbers.
The fact we wont have common testing, for those who show no symptoms, for awhile, we dont know just how many people are/were simply carriers with no symptoms, but even so, theyve developed antibobies too, making for more numbers in that herding scenario
The answer...as many weeks or months as it takes. Sorry, but that question reeks of self-centeredness.
terrific post!
Maybe you'd like to take a look out your window and understand that people drive economies, not the other way around. You may have noticed we are shutting down businesses to save the lives of people, so businesses are being sacrified to save lives.
This isn't difficult to understand...for most at least.
what other things have been done to save the lives of citizens?
you may answer in 'bahhh' form, as it seems to be your native language.
It's also not difficult to understand that tanking the economy for months on end will also take lives.
That assumes a ton, a) that people stay immune, when there are some suspected reinfections, and b) the virus doesn’t adapt and change, which they have already seen 2 strains. We struggle to keep the flu viruses in check, add another yearly seasonal that is more deadly and we could be significant loss of life.
Hilarious!! And very original. Suggesting the death of a dissenting poster is always gold. Good for you.
Careful, though. A few more posts like that and you may hear a knock on your door..
Bahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh