How about an updated look at RPI (5/3/16)

[EminenceBunt]

Since the last time I update (4/21/16), we have gone 5-2 with 2 wins against LSU and Bama as well as a midweek win against OM to go along with 1 loss to LSU and Bama. Our RPI has gone up 6 spots since the win against ULM to #11. We really need to go 8-2 or better through our last 10 games to lock up a national seed, and I think that is very possible

Let's take a look at the RPI movement of other teams of interest on our schedule. The (+) and (-) values are based on the movement of a teams RPI since April 21st.


-Florida (#1)
-A&M (#5):-1
-Ole Miss (#6):
-MSU (#11): +6
-Vandy (#12): +2
-LSU (#15): -3
-USM (#19): +3
-UGA (#28 ): +9
-FAU (#29 ): -11
-South Alabama (#36): -17
-Bama (#53): -6
-Oral Roberts (#72): -3
-Arkansas (#79): +30
-Troy (#80): -7
-UCLA (#82): -6, (20-21) on the year
-Mizzou (#89): +14
-Oregon (#96): -17, (21-17) on the year
-Auburn (#109): +2
-USC (#112): -9, (20-22) on the year
-Oklahoma (#122): -16, (21-22-1) on the year
-ULM (#160): -37
-UMASS-Lowell (#166): -6
-Nichols State (#199): +19
-Eastern Kentucky (#219): +1
-SDSU (#228 ): -21
-Memphis (#229): -20
-TN-Martin (#270 ): +1
-Alcorn (#290 ): -2
-Valley (#300)

For a further breakdown, our schedule has:

6 teams in (#1-25)--> MSU's record against: (10-7)
3 teams in (#26-50)--> MSU's record against: (3-3)
7 teams in (#51-100)--> MSU's record against: (5-3), 7 games remaining(3 vs Mizzou, 1 @ Troy, 3 @ Arky)
3 teams in (#101-150)--> MSU's record against: (1-0-1), 3 games remaining(3 vs Auburn)
3 teams in (#151-200)--> MSU's record against: (5-0)
3 teams in (#201-250)--> MSU's record against: (3-1)
3 teams in (#251-300)--> MSU's record against: (3-0)

So that is only one loss to 100+ teams and only 4 losses to teams outside of the top 50. 10 wins against top 25 teams has to be close to best in the country.If UGA can take care of business this weekend against OM, that will be 12 wins against the top 25, which is 4 more than our SEC win total last year.

 

[Bulldogg31]

If we win our remaining series we'll be a national seed, regardless of RPI. Winning 9 out of 10 SEC series is a big deal. Our road series wins alone give the committee plenty to support awarding us a national seed.

 

[57stratdawg]

I agree. Honestly, seems like a team that wins 8 out 10 SEC series should be a national seed as well.

 

[patdog]

I think so too. Our RPI probably isn't going to move from the 10-13 range. Which is very borderline for a national seed. But I think winning series on the road vs. Vandy, Florida, LSU and Bama, plus taking 3 out of 4 from Mississippi is going to be a huge boost for us in the committee's eyes.

Edit: Also, our bad losses that are keeping the RPI down to some degree will all be well over 2 months old by the time the committee selects the seeds (assuming we don't lose more than 3 of the last 10).

 

[engie]

I think if today was the selection show, we would probably be the #3 national seed behind Florida who is set to be the best actual RPI team there's been in the last 4 or 5 years and Texas A&M who swept us. You could certainly argue for political correctness on the committee to put us lower depending on what they value this year. But our resume is incredible.

There's not a lot of instances of the committee reaching outside the top 15 or so for national seeds. But there is a lot of instances of them ranking those lower RPI teams extremely highly once they decide that they are national seed quality.

 

[missouridawg]

I agree. Honestly, seems like a team that wins 8 out 10 SEC series should be a national seed as well.

What about a team that wins 9 out of 10 SEC series? Barring a meltdown, we should be able to accomplish this.

 

[msudawg200]

I agree. Honestly, seems like a team that wins 8 out 10 SEC series should be a national seed as well.

I agree that it "seems" that way but if we go 5-4 down the stretch (win 2 series, lose 1), we'll finish 17-13 in the league with an RPI that is probably in the 15-20 range. National seed isn't happening in that scenario. I think we need to go 7-3 at a minimum in the last 10.

 

[msudawg12]

as stated above, if we win our remaining series we are a national seed. There is a reasonable chance a team or two above us lost a series they shouldnt with their difficulty and that means we could be ranked #2 or better in most polls.

RPI be damned, the #1 or #2 team in the country will be a national seed.

 

[Crazy Cotton]

A&M cancelled their game tomorrow with "Incarnate Word" for a "scheduling conflict." Wish we had had a few of those on some of the awful RPI teams.

 

[OleMissLogo]

Y'all did with UTM, dropping a double header to a single game.