The level of talent on our defense will become a hot topic in the coming months, and this recruiting class isn’t going to make people feel much better.
I’ll happily be wrong.
I’ll happily be wrong.
Hot take....
- Thread starter 57stratdawg
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That seems about right. Those who don't embrace offense-focused football will definitely be more upset as time goes on.
Though the amount and/or intensity of bickering will likely depend on how well or poor the team looks on both sides of the ball against their SEC opponents.
Though the amount and/or intensity of bickering will likely depend on how well or poor the team looks on both sides of the ball against their SEC opponents.
I guess some people will be a lot more excited if we are averaging 350 yards again passing and scoring over 30 points a game against all SEC competition even if our opponents are scoring 35 points per game and throwing for 375 a game and our record ends up being 3-7 this year. I hope we throw for 350 plus yards per game with 3-4 TD passes but I want those passing yards to come at 8 to 10 yards per play and time of possession to be in our favor while giving our opponents only about 9-10 possessions per game. In other words, our chance for success this year is going to be by using the passing game the way a Good Service Academy team uses the Option. If we have 4 Passing TDS and Eight 3 and outs, we will struggle to win even 3 games.
I think we had an outrageously talented defense for our standards in 2017 and 2018 and we are kinda coming back down to earth some. We may not have a defense with three first round picks on one team again in our lifetimes.
I will also say that the 2019 in-state class was a missed opportunity by Moorhead and that group could have really had us well stocked on defense for the next couple of years had we managed to add another couple of 4 star talents (Hall, Young, Turnage, or Charles Moore if he hadn’t gone crazy, etc.). On the other hand, we were pretty spoiled to have talents like Fletcher Cox, Chris Jones, and Jerffery Simmons consecutively for almost a decade. Those are three generational talents for us that somehow managed to be back-to-back-to-back and in our own state ripe for the picking.
I think this era of MSU football is going to look a lot different from anything we’ve ever seen, and player development on both sides of the ball is going to be key. It also doesn’t help that this in-state class is on paper probably the worst in MS in a decade or more, and the lack of pre-existing relationships and the pandemic isn’t helping things at all. So I do think you have to cut them some slack for this year in recruiting because they are in a really tough spot. That said, expect us to be a program with a bigger emphasis on offense than defense under Leach, that’s just who he is. And hopefully we can find a way to be respectable on defense most years.
I will also say that the 2019 in-state class was a missed opportunity by Moorhead and that group could have really had us well stocked on defense for the next couple of years had we managed to add another couple of 4 star talents (Hall, Young, Turnage, or Charles Moore if he hadn’t gone crazy, etc.). On the other hand, we were pretty spoiled to have talents like Fletcher Cox, Chris Jones, and Jerffery Simmons consecutively for almost a decade. Those are three generational talents for us that somehow managed to be back-to-back-to-back and in our own state ripe for the picking.
I think this era of MSU football is going to look a lot different from anything we’ve ever seen, and player development on both sides of the ball is going to be key. It also doesn’t help that this in-state class is on paper probably the worst in MS in a decade or more, and the lack of pre-existing relationships and the pandemic isn’t helping things at all. So I do think you have to cut them some slack for this year in recruiting because they are in a really tough spot. That said, expect us to be a program with a bigger emphasis on offense than defense under Leach, that’s just who he is. And hopefully we can find a way to be respectable on defense most years.
We have better talent on defense than some are giving us credit for. Not great talent, but not as bad as some people think. The issue is we have basically zero experience, outside of about seven guys. We’re going to take some lumps this fall, and everyone should be expecting that.
The flip side is, if everyone can pick up the offense in a timely manner, this will probably be our best offense since Dak.
As for recruiting, there are a million reasons why this class has turned out the way it has defensively. The truth is we have NEVER signed blue chip defensive players from outside MS, and there are almost zero inside MS this year. Combine that with a staff that is brand new to the area and never had a chance to meet most of these guys in person... While we could be doing better there, you have to take everything into account. BTW, we still have a chance to finish pretty strong in this class.
I expect this to get better with the 2022 class. There is more defensive talent in state, we are in good shape with several of them, and we can sell early playing time- which matters a lot to some of these guys.
The flip side is, if everyone can pick up the offense in a timely manner, this will probably be our best offense since Dak.
As for recruiting, there are a million reasons why this class has turned out the way it has defensively. The truth is we have NEVER signed blue chip defensive players from outside MS, and there are almost zero inside MS this year. Combine that with a staff that is brand new to the area and never had a chance to meet most of these guys in person... While we could be doing better there, you have to take everything into account. BTW, we still have a chance to finish pretty strong in this class.
I expect this to get better with the 2022 class. There is more defensive talent in state, we are in good shape with several of them, and we can sell early playing time- which matters a lot to some of these guys.
At least from an entertainment perspective, if we have to lose, I would MUCH rather it be 38-37 than 3-2. I'll take a win any day any way we can get it but if we are going to lose and I have to watch it, yes, would much rather it be a scorefest. I think most would feel that way.
The good news here is that my expectations are so low, there’s really no way for the defense to disappoint me. That said, I don’t think you’re at all wrong.
I wouldn’t be particularly comfortable about this defense if we were playing AAC teams, and the fact that we’re playing elite SEC talent instead has me concerned. I understand the concept that a defense around #50 will be just fine if we truly have an elite offense, but my fear is that a Top 50 defense is our absolute ceiling this year while giving up 425-450 yds/gm is more likely.
For perspective, we were #73 in team defense last year while giving up right at 400 yds/gm. From that team, we lost a combination of 13 starters and/or reserves that played a lot of snaps. People can have whatever opinion they want about it, but defense is going to be a problem for the foreseeable future
I wouldn’t be particularly comfortable about this defense if we were playing AAC teams, and the fact that we’re playing elite SEC talent instead has me concerned. I understand the concept that a defense around #50 will be just fine if we truly have an elite offense, but my fear is that a Top 50 defense is our absolute ceiling this year while giving up 425-450 yds/gm is more likely.
For perspective, we were #73 in team defense last year while giving up right at 400 yds/gm. From that team, we lost a combination of 13 starters and/or reserves that played a lot of snaps. People can have whatever opinion they want about it, but defense is going to be a problem for the foreseeable future
This just isn’t a great year for Defensive High School seniors in Mississippi... the worst in years.... plus with some of the schools not playing and we couldn’t do camps this summer, almost impossible to evaluate and find a few diamonds in the rough.... you can thank Moorehead and staff for the lack of D talent on the roster now...
Is the hot take that we have good players on defense or not good players?
The post sounds like bad is expected, but I feel like lack of defensive personnel good enough to be successful this year has been one of the main topics discussed on the message boards, so the hot take would be that we have a lot of talent.
I'm hoping for average, but expecting well below average.
The post sounds like bad is expected, but I feel like lack of defensive personnel good enough to be successful this year has been one of the main topics discussed on the message boards, so the hot take would be that we have a lot of talent.
I'm hoping for average, but expecting well below average.
I'm less worried about the lack of experience than the lack of playmakers in the front 7. It's been a while since we haven't had a player that could demand a double team on the DL. That makes a huge difference.
I highlighted the only part that matters. You have to have great talent to even have a mediocre defense in the SEC. If you don’t have it, you will not be able to stop anybody.
Not that we're not going to be bad on D, but a lot of those 13 starters and/or reserves didn't play that much last year anyway because of tutor gate or injuries. So it's not like we're going to be worse than we looked last year in games where Tutorgate players weren't playing. We may not be better, and that will bad enough, but that #73 ranked defense was about 2/3's of a season with a terrible defense with tutor gate players out, and then 1/3 of a season with a so-so defense with tutorgate players playing. Add in the fact that we should see some improvement just from having competent strength and conditioning and accountability for the players, and I'm hopeful that we will be as good as we looked at our best last year.
That's still going to put us behind the 8 ball playing an all SEC schedule, but I think all the disruptions related to COVID are harder for offenses than defenses, so we may get some help there with first year coaches or teams that have lost a lot of offensive production.
Our defensive talent, or lack thereof, seems a little overblown. It’s certainly not where it was a few years ago, but it’s not early 2000’s bad. If Arnett is a good DC we’ll be respectable.
Mullen shares in the blame. Totally tanked the 2016 and 2017 classes, those are who would be the upperclassmen right now. At worst we should have another cornerback or two. And it would have helped had Willie Gay stuck around.
You can blame Moorhead for a lot of things, but high school recruiting wasn't one of them. Yeah he missed some in 2019, but we also got our share and backfilled, meaning we don't have any holes in the underclass. More than anything, we needed a couple of JUCO DTs in that class.
The most important players on our defense this fall will be the JUCOs- Davis, Wheat, and Lawson. If a couple of those guys can get to the QB, it will make me feel better about things.
There’s plenty of 4*s on the defense.
Muphy
Pickering
Jones
Spencer
Crumedy
Brule
King Ani
Forbes
Davis
Along with some borderline 3*s.
The weakness is obviously inexperience and depth in the secondary. The front 6/7 are fine.
Muphy
Pickering
Jones
Spencer
Crumedy
Brule
King Ani
Forbes
Davis
Along with some borderline 3*s.
The weakness is obviously inexperience and depth in the secondary. The front 6/7 are fine.
This is the right take.
We obviously don’t have the talent to be the number 1 defense in America like we were a couple of years ago. I think people got a little spoiled in 17-18. We aren’t as bare as some want to suggest either. Things are typically never as good or as bad as they seem.
Just play hard and be well coached. That’s the expectation. If our defense is around 10th in the SEC, that would be solid.
I don't mind 38-37. I worry about a repeat of '16 Arkansas, though. I know I'm in the minority, but I hated that **** more than 3-2.
Yeah, everything you mentioned(especially the S&C) is why I’m holding out hope that this defense will not be as bad as I fear. That said, the thing that hurts so much about the number that I mentioned is that it gutted our depth. Even I think that the starting 11 will be able to hold their own, but the problem comes when we inevitably have an injury or two at which point we’ll be bringing guys in at nearly every position that have never played an SEC down. This is the first year I can remember where it’s as if we can truly not afford a single injury or suspension, and as another poster mentioned recruiting, I’m not sure that that’s going to change anytime soon.
At the end of the day, this’ll be a season to simply enjoy any football we can get, and if the offense shows us signs of what’s to come, I’ll be happy.
At the end of the day, this’ll be a season to simply enjoy any football we can get, and if the offense shows us signs of what’s to come, I’ll be happy.
Sometimes we as fans over analyze every aspect of our team and see all of the flaws, without looking at other teams’ flaws too. I feel like a lot of times State fans look point at any sign of concern and negativity that they can, and then extrapolate from there.
The truth is we’ve lost some generational talent off of our 2017-18 defenses, and there is going to be a correction to the mean. But that does not mean the cupboard is totally bare- we do have some guys with upside that are just unproven.
Of the 10 SEC teams we play this year, our raw talent on defense is better than four of them (Vandy, Arkansas, Missouri, and OM) and pretty comparable with another (Kentucky).
The truth is we’ve lost some generational talent off of our 2017-18 defenses, and there is going to be a correction to the mean. But that does not mean the cupboard is totally bare- we do have some guys with upside that are just unproven.
Of the 10 SEC teams we play this year, our raw talent on defense is better than four of them (Vandy, Arkansas, Missouri, and OM) and pretty comparable with another (Kentucky).
That's a decent list of talent, but that's a lot of young players and then Kobe and Spencer, who are both good but I'm not sure either are gamechangers or are going to break out as seniors. I've heard good things about Pickering and Crumedy but not heard people raving about them. And I'm assuming if Ani didn't have to burn his redshirt last year when we were so bad on the DL that he's probably not really ready this year.
That list does make me feel a little better about our defensive recruiting this year. It will hurt, but we probably have enough talent that as long as we follow it up with a good year on that side of teh ball we won't be devoid of talent.
Ani probably won’t play, and I didn’t include 4* Russell either since he won’t be playing.
I think I heard crumedy and Pickering were doing pretty well in camp.
Personally, I’m not too worried about the front 6/7. We have some talent and athletes and experience up there.
It’s the secondary that lacks both, except Murphy.
There’s another DL that’s apparently been wrecking things in practice, can’t recall his name. I think last name jones, not Kobe.... or Jalen something.
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Tre Lawson? He was a sort of big Juco recruit I think?
Allen Love was the Louisville transfer. Somebody else below?
| 22 | Nathan Pickering | DT | 6-4 | 310 | So. | 1L | Mount Olive, MS / Seminary HS |
| 45 | Devon Robinson | DT | 6-4 | 300 | So. | SQ | Memphis, TN / Whitehaven HS |
| 90 | Armondous Cooley | DT | 6-2 | 305 | Fr. | HS | Shubuta, MS / Wayne County HS |
| 93 | Cameron Young | DT | 6-3 | 320 | So. | 1L | Crosby, MS / Franklin County HS |
| 94 | Jaden Crumedy
| DT | 6-5 | 300 | So. | 1L | Hattiesburg, MS / Oak Grove HS |
| 95 | Allen Love | DT | 6-2 | 285 | So. | SQ | Birmingham, AL / Louisville |
| 4 | Izuchukwu King Ani
| DE | 6-4 | 255 | R-Fr. | RS | Hendersonville, TN / Davidson Academy |
| 15 | Jack Harris | DE | 6-3 | 250 | R-Fr. | RS | Sumrall, MS / Oak Grove HS |
| 17 | Aaron Odom | DE | 6-3 | 275 | Jr. | 1L | Jackson, MS / Callaway HS |
| 34 | Sherman Timbs | DE | 6-2 | 270 | Jr. | 1L | Indianola, MS / Indianola Academy |
| 42 | Marquiss Spencer
| DE | 6-4 | 300 | Sr. | 3L | Greenwood, MS / Greenwood HS |
| 46 | Jamari Stewart | DE | 6-4 | 200 | Fr. | HS | Fort Pierce, FL / Centennial HS |
| 50 | Tre Lawson | DE | 6-5 | 265 | Jr. | JC | North Augusta, SC / Mississippi Gulf Coast CC |
| 52 | Kobe Jones | DE | 6-4 | 260 | Sr. | 2L | Starkville, MS / Starkville HS |
| 92 | Jevon Banks | DE | 6-2 | 285 | Fr. | HS | Olive Branch, MS / Olive Branch HS |
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Jevon Banks. Thankyou for pulling that up. There’s some videos of him just acting like a bull in a china shop. I forgot about Tre Lawson also.
First off, Brule and Murphy were both composite 3* guys.
Second, stars are one thing, results are another and NFL projection matters a hell of a lot more. Right now we have a projected mid-late round LB in Thompson, a late round (at-best) DE in Spencer. That’s all we have on defense as far as current NFL prospects for 2021.. Murphy, Pickering, and Crumedy may play their way into becoming possible mid-round picks in 2022 or later, but its hard to know right now. Forbes and Davis are first year players who are going to need probably half of the season, at minimum, to get acclimated (especially with no spring practice in Davis’ case). King Ani is a big unknown, was a highly rated recruit but didn’t seem to have a ton of commitable offers late in the process....there hasn’t been a huge amount of buzz about him coming in and disrupting the depth chart at DE.
Beyond those guys, we have nothing to write home about. Depth on the DL looks OK for this year, but we look thin on 2021 and beyond. LB cannot afford any injuries. If Brule or Thompson go down, we are toast. The secondary needs no further discussion, they are going to struggle as many have already said.
Overall, there’s just no one that really jumps out as a typical SEC stud you have to gameplan around, and that is a problem. Not a single Sweat / Abram / Simmons / Gay / Cox / Banks / Slay / McKinney / etc. to be found anywhere. 70% of the teams on our schedule are going to have 2-3 of those guys each, at a minimum, on offense that we are going to have to worry about.
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First off, Murphy was a 91 by 247, if you, as a state fan, want to tout the lower rating, go right ahead. Brule was a 4*, I reckon he got the State bump.
My point was we have talent, star ratings do matter, the data is extremely clear on that. 60%, minimum, of the teams we face will always have more talent than us.
We don’t have the super stars of 2018, and we might not ever have that level of talent ever again. So if you want to use that squad as the measuring stick, your outlook will be grim for any future state defense.
A Fletcher Cox, Chris Jones, and Jeffrey Simmons (especially when combined with Montez Sweat) changes absolutely everything, defensively. It’s why Aaron Donald and those 3 guys are so valuable, even at the NFL level. If a player can disrupt the pocket, in the face of the QB, while taking on a double team, you’re now playing 10 on 8 defensively, against a rushed and anxious QB. State’s had an embarrassment of riches at that position that has probably covered up some other issues, defensively. As an Ole Miss fan, I can tell you, once you lose a Peria Jerry or a Robert Nkemdiche (when he’s focused), it’s hard to replace them. It’s one reason I’m really concerned about our defense this year, because while Benito Jones and Josiah Coatney were no Cox, Jones, Simmons or Sweat, they were dang good football players. And I don’t know that we’ve got the replacements.
State really needs Pickering to take that next step. It would greatly help your young secondary.
Crumedy is like the forgotten man. I liked him more than Lovett. He’s going to sneak up on some State fans this year.
Well, I agree in the sense that if its 58-37 where we aren't even competitive on defense, then that is as bad or worse than 3-2. I'm holding my breath on what we have with Arnett because I'm not sure he's ever been out from the umbrella of Rockey Long running a defense. The better defense we've had have all been under proven DCs. JLD was proven when we got him and so were Grantham and Shoop and Ellis Johnson. Even Diaz was doing his own thing at MTSU before we got him. Arnett is a little bit of a wild card but at least has experience in the title of a DC which beats out Sirmon and some others we've had. And he is not washed up like a Torbush or Clay.
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This is 100% not true.
Even in a year where we are playing only SEC games, 247’s talent index says that we are more talented than half of the teams on our schedule. In a normal year, you take out two of those games and replace them with four non SEC games (five if you count the bowl) where we usually have more talent. Last year, we were the more talented team in 8 of our 13 games.
If you had said 60% of our SECW games, that would be true. However, only half ouf our schedule is SECW games. This notion that we are grossly outmatched every time we step on the field is simply not true. There is no way that 60% minimum of all the opponents on our schedule are always more talented than us.