Honest assertions about the AI bubble

[firegiver]

Hi folks, I just thought it might be nice to share some perspectives on what is occurring today in the US economy as it pertains to GDP and the AI space. Would love to share actual facts here with a focus on investments and long term outlooks.
I'm 45, got a CS degree in 2003 and had to deal with the head winds of the dot com bubble burst as well as the 2008 financial crisis. I'm now pretty far into many investments and trying to see 20 years into the future and make sure I can certainly plan for lifes happenings.
I have some concerns. I've read from analysists that there actually maybe a negative GDP in the US economy right now if you subtract AI. I personally am implementing AI in a fortune 200 company so I have some anecdotal understanding there. The numbers I'm looking at show that the current AI bubble maybe 17 times as big as the dot com one and 4 times as big as the subprime 2008 one.

I don't know if these figures are true. but I do know that the deals Ive been following like:
Nvidia gets Oracle investment https://www.techspot.com/news/108047-oracle-orders-400000-nvidia-chips-power-massive-stargate.html

and following the subsequent investments show just a passing around of money with no actual value.


Using these tools in the IT space, they are good and we are building out value but I have seen that the providers of these LLM's are actually losing money on the deals. https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/05/o...-pricey-chatgpt-pro-plan-ceo-sam-altman-says/

I'm aware of the race to AGI. But having used the tools and looked at this entire financing structure, I have to ask: Isn't this just a bubble?

 

[fatpiggy]

Hi folks, I just thought it might be nice to share some perspectives on what is occurring today in the US economy as it pertains to GDP and the AI space. Would love to share actual facts here with a focus on investments and long term outlooks.
I'm 45, got a CS degree in 2003 and had to deal with the head winds of the dot com bubble burst as well as the 2008 financial crisis. I'm now pretty far into many investments and trying to see 20 years into the future and make sure I can certainly plan for lifes happenings.
I have some concerns. I've read from analysists that there actually maybe a negative GDP in the US economy right now if you subtract AI. I personally am implementing AI in a fortune 200 company so I have some anecdotal understanding there. The numbers I'm looking at show that the current AI bubble maybe 17 times as big as the dot com one and 4 times as big as the subprime 2008 one.

I don't know if these figures are true. but I do know that the deals Ive been following like:
Nvidia gets Oracle investment https://www.techspot.com/news/108047-oracle-orders-400000-nvidia-chips-power-massive-stargate.html

and following the subsequent investments show just a passing around of money with no actual value.
View attachment 970351

Using these tools in the IT space, they are good and we are building out value but I have seen that the providers of these LLM's are actually losing money on the deals. https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/05/o...-pricey-chatgpt-pro-plan-ceo-sam-altman-says/

I'm aware of the race to AGI. But having used the tools and looked at this entire financing structure, I have to ask: Isn't this just a bubble?

I view it akin to the .com bubble. Lots of players in the game but only a few will be relevant 10-20 years from now. Sort of like a game of musical chairs, its price discovery in action.



Valuations are not anywhere as stretched as the .com bubble and one could argue the AI technology is much more disruptive than .com.

Persoanlly I am not sold on the humanoid robots being in everyone’s home. I suppose it depends on what they can do. Can it do my dishes and laundry? The roomba was kind of a flop. Not sure people want a robot wandering around their house. At the same time, I think every factory will want a (or multiple) robot to do repetitive and mundane tasks.

The car thing is a major disruptive technology that is probably the most obvious use of AI. The cost of moving about is going to drop significantly with Robotaxi in the next 1-2 years.

I’m excited for what the future holds. I expect the technology to usher in a higher floor for the standard of living we all currently have.

 

[fatpiggy]

 

[Rastafarian]

Hi folks, I just thought it might be nice to share some perspectives on what is occurring today in the US economy as it pertains to GDP and the AI space. Would love to share actual facts here with a focus on investments and long term outlooks.
I'm 45, got a CS degree in 2003 and had to deal with the head winds of the dot com bubble burst as well as the 2008 financial crisis. I'm now pretty far into many investments and trying to see 20 years into the future and make sure I can certainly plan for lifes happenings.
I have some concerns. I've read from analysists that there actually maybe a negative GDP in the US economy right now if you subtract AI. I personally am implementing AI in a fortune 200 company so I have some anecdotal understanding there. The numbers I'm looking at show that the current AI bubble maybe 17 times as big as the dot com one and 4 times as big as the subprime 2008 one.

I don't know if these figures are true. but I do know that the deals Ive been following like:
Nvidia gets Oracle investment https://www.techspot.com/news/108047-oracle-orders-400000-nvidia-chips-power-massive-stargate.html

and following the subsequent investments show just a passing around of money with no actual value.
View attachment 970351

Using these tools in the IT space, they are good and we are building out value but I have seen that the providers of these LLM's are actually losing money on the deals. https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/05/o...-pricey-chatgpt-pro-plan-ceo-sam-altman-says/

I'm aware of the race to AGI. But having used the tools and looked at this entire financing structure, I have to ask: Isn't this just a bubble?

The labs could easily turn a profit if they were to slow down the training of the next gen of models but right now it is an arms race.

They also have a ton of pricing power as they have been able to raise prices and not see much if any impact on consumption.

if anything were to pop, I think it would be some of the application layer. But that pop would only because because the models have improved so much that you don’t need some of the application layer companies any more.

Curious what use cases you are building out for the f200 company and if you are having any success

 

[firegiver]

The labs could easily turn a profit if they were to slow down the training of the next gen of models but right now it is an arms race.

They also have a ton of pricing power as they have been able to raise prices and not see much if any impact on consumption.

if anything were to pop, I think it would be some of the application layer. But that pop would only because because the models have improved so much that you don’t need some of the application layer companies any more.

Curious what use cases you are building out for the f200 company and if you are having any success

As far as what my IT engineering team is using AI for, we are creating agentic mcp services to improve implementation. So purely in house non customer facing tools. Im trying to automate feature testing and stress testing. We are building out prompt libraries specific to our product and share them enterprise wide.

 

[Rastafarian]

As far as what my IT engineering team is using AI for, we are creating agentic mcp services to improve implementation. So purely in house non customer facing tools. Im trying to automate feature testing and stress testing. We are building out prompt libraries specific to our product and share them enterprise wide.

Have you had success putting any agents in production? I’ve seen some in limited customer support roles work.

 

[firegiver]

Have you had success putting any agents in production? I’ve seen some in limited customer support roles work.

Oh no, the powers that be are far too conservative to attempt that at the moment. AI in their mind is only a performance tool. They have no aspirations yet to replace their humans on the phones helping their customers for instance. I think that's the big opportunity they would have to implement a large cost saver... but so far its only being used in the software and infrastructure implementation space.

Blows my mind actually...again though this place is extremely conservative

 

[MTTiger19]

This isn’t a bubble. This is the internet being discovered. There will be players that do not make it but this is the direction we are all headed. In my line of work we are already seeing full manufacturing sites move to complete automation and robotics. Eliminating 80% of there workforce overnight. The scary part is they could eliminate all manufacturing jobs with the exception of a maintenance guy or two. Interestingly enough in several plants I work in it’s the illegal labor that is being replaced by robots. I was in a plant several weeks ago that was using humans to hand label secondary packaging. All illegals per the PM.

Autonomous cars, robots performing complex surgeries, etc…. This is the future I believe. You’re literally living in the next Industrial Revolution.

 

[firegiver]

This isn’t a bubble. This is the internet being discovered. There will be players that do not make it but this is the direction we are all headed. In my line of work we are already seeing full manufacturing sites move to complete automation and robotics. Eliminating 80% of there workforce overnight. The scary part is they could eliminate all manufacturing jobs with the exception of a maintenance guy or two. Interestingly enough in several plants I work in it’s the illegal labor that is being replaced by robots. I was in a plant several weeks ago that was using humans to hand label secondary packaging. All illegals per the PM.

Autonomous cars, robots performing complex surgeries, etc…. This is the future I believe. You’re literally living in the next Industrial Revolution.

We're you 10 in 1999? There was a huge .com bubble and it popped and everyone lost like half of their retirement

 

[Rastafarian]

This isn’t a bubble. This is the internet being discovered. There will be players that do not make it but this is the direction we are all headed. In my line of work we are already seeing full manufacturing sites move to complete automation and robotics. Eliminating 80% of there workforce overnight. The scary part is they could eliminate all manufacturing jobs with the exception of a maintenance guy or two. Interestingly enough in several plants I work in it’s the illegal labor that is being replaced by robots. I was in a plant several weeks ago that was using humans to hand label secondary packaging. All illegals per the PM.

Autonomous cars, robots performing complex surgeries, etc…. This is the future I believe. You’re literally living in the next Industrial Revolution.

Agree. This is what the internet is meant to empower. What type of robotics are they using? I know the logistics providers have not made any big bets yet.

 

[MTTiger19]

We're you 10 in 1999? There was a huge .com bubble and it popped and everyone lost like half of their retirement

Ok. I guess time will tell. I graduated HS in 99 ftr. Pets.com wasn’t doing surgery like robots from Stroke Theraputics or da Vinci but you do you.

 

[fatpiggy]

No one approaching retirement should have 100% of their investments in AI

People properly diversified in 1999 did just fine in the years following. The market is up about 8-10x since then.

Ok. I guess time will tell. I graduated HS in 99 ftr. Pets.com wasn’t doing surgery like robots from Stroke Theraputics or da Vinci but you do you.

 

[fatpiggy]

@firegiver this is not an insult, just an observation. But you tend to be very negative in your outlook.

For instance BTC, grocery prices, ai ….. you seem to predict doom a lot.

 

[MTTiger19]

@firegiver this is not an insult, just an observation. But you tend to be very negative in your outlook.

For instance BTC, grocery prices, ai ….. you seem to predict doom a lot.

He’s a bear apparently.

 

[MTTiger19]

No one approaching retirement should have 100% of their investments in AI

People properly diversified in 1999 did just fine in the years following. The market is up about 8-10x since then.

Clearly. Not when there’s other industries that are better suited for lower risk. No one puts a gun to anyone’s head and makes them invest in AI. I do so because I believe it’s the future. It’s like investing in oil right when cars started coming around. There’s so much more to AI as well. The largest obstacle for most industries moving forward will be power. These AI data centers are developing technologies that make our attempts at renewable energy look like child’s play.

 

[firegiver]

@firegiver this is not an insult, just an observation. But you tend to be very negative in your outlook.

For instance BTC, grocery prices, ai ….. you seem to predict doom a lot.

Lol, well I mean I've paid attention. Also you aren't addressing my points, your only bringing up your grievances with me.

I could do the same here: fartpiggy, you appear to be obsessed with bringing down every discussion into a whine fest about how people disagree with you and you personally attach them rather than talk about the actual subject of the thread.

See, that was easy and lazy.... anywho

 

[firegiver]

Ok. I guess time will tell. I graduated HS in 99 ftr. Pets.com wasn’t doing surgery like robots from Stroke Theraputics or da Vinci but you do you.

Cool, yall aren't even addressing my points.

 

[MTTiger19]

Cool, yall aren't even addressing my points.

Which is?

 

[MTTiger19]

AI and robotics are a fad.

 

[fatpiggy]

Lol, well I mean I've paid attention. Also you aren't addressing my points, your only bringing up your grievances with me.

I could do the same here: fartpiggy, you appear to be obsessed with bringing down every discussion into a whine fest about how people disagree with you and you personally attach them rather than talk about the actual subject of the thread.

See, that was easy and lazy.... anywho

I very rarely personally attack, I try to avoid it. If someone personally attacks me I will return. Again, I wasn’t attacking you, just making an observation.

I knew you wouldn’t take the criticism well, but it doesn’t surprise me you are negative on AI. You are negative on a lot of things. Not saying you are wrong on AI, I have similar outlook as you.

 

[firegiver]

AI and robotics are a fad.

Thats not even agentic AI. Thats just a POS, same as whats been at the register, attached to your shopping cart. Sam's club does this today, with the member using their APP to scan things.

 

[firegiver]

I very rarely personally attack, I try to avoid it. If someone personally attacks me I will return. Again, I wasn’t attacking you, just making an observation.

I knew you wouldn’t take the criticism well, but it doesn’t surprise me you are negative on AI. You are negative on a lot of things. Not saying you are wrong on AI, I have similar outlook as you.

Sigh... asking questions and I get this response. I can't ask questions without you personally critiquing my criticism. The point of this thread is not about me, its about what I posted.

To get this discussion back on track, try to refrain from comments about my attitude, and center on the subject matter. AI, the companies involved, their investments with each other and the actual value they are delivering and the revenue they are generating.

If you find this subject not to your interests, then just scroll on by. Good gravy.

I'm heavily invested in these companies, so of course, I'd like to consider and discuss the risks.

 

[fatpiggy]

Sigh... asking questions and I get this response. I can't ask questions without you personally critiquing my criticism. The point of this thread is not about me, its about what I posted.

To get this discussion back on track, try to refrain from comments about my attitude, and center on the subject matter. AI, the companies involved, their investments with each other and the actual value they are delivering and the revenue they are generating.

If you find this subject not to your interests, then just scroll on by. Good gravy.

I'm heavily invested in these companies, so of course, I'd like to consider and discuss the risks.

Tesla is the leader in AI. Got my software update this morning and it is absolutely incredible.

NVDA and Tesla ….. those are the horses. As they go, the rest of AI goes. AI is much more than LLM’s.

Are you talking about LLM’s specifically or AI in general?

 

[firegiver]

Tesla is the leader in AI. Got my software update this morning and it is absolutely incredible.

NVDA and Tesla ….. those are the horses. As they go, the rest of AI goes. AI is much more than LLM’s.

Are you talking about LLM’s specifically or AI in general?

Im talking about the profits. What profits are these companies actually making. For example, Chat GPT, the richest private company in the world, is not making any money off of the sales of their services at the moment. In fact they are losing money. NVIDIA is investing billions INTO chat gpt. That is what is keeping them going.

Look around, I'm paying for their services, watchign them being used across the industry, and seeing that they aren't making a profit. This is my concern. The companies in the OP picture, are investing in each other, and with each deal their stock prices go up, but the outcome at the end of the rainbow, today, is a loss.

Thus, I'm discussing this as I have heavy investments in the area. Obviously, unless profits start occurring, a correction is coming.

 

[UrHuckleberry]

Im talking about the profits. What profits are these companies actually making. For example, Chat GPT, the richest private company in the world, is not making any money off of the sales of their services at the moment. In fact they are losing money. NVIDIA is investing billions INTO chat gpt. That is what is keeping them going.

Look around, I'm paying for their services, watchign them being used across the industry, and seeing that they aren't making a profit. This is my concern. The companies in the OP picture, are investing in each other, and with each deal their stock prices go up, but the outcome at the end of the rainbow, today, is a loss.

Thus, I'm discussing this as I have heavy investments in the area. Obviously, unless profits start occurring, a correction is coming.

Does feel like AI needs to be propped up while being developed until it reaches the sophistication where it can later be used to create a profit, in which ever way that leads. Sort of like AI is in college right now, getting its degrees, with the hopes that it will graduated with multiple graduate degrees.

On the other hand, it also feels like all these companies are propping it up and putting money towards it almost out of fear, knowing that once it does turn the corner, they don't want to be the company who misses out maybe?

 

[firegiver]

Does feel like AI needs to be propped up while being developed until it reaches the sophistication where it can later be used to create a profit, in which ever way that leads. Sort of like AI is in college right now, getting its degrees, with the hopes that it will graduated with multiple graduate degrees.

On the other hand, it also feels like all these companies are propping it up and putting money towards it almost out of fear, knowing that once it does turn the corner, they don't want to be the company who misses out maybe?

Right, and thats my current take. I was discussing this last night with a family member who has implemented agentic AI models at a fortune 100 company, in the scope of sales and marketing. His assertion was that, its like any tool and that it will fail in a lot of spectacular ways until you fine tune the absolute bejeezus with it. Now, I agree with this and I'm actively seeking to do that. However, the profit models don't add up right now.

To me the long game here for these companies, is to keep investing, keep selling the services to other companies, until they all become super reliant on them, then JACK UP THE PRICE. That makes monetary sense. But right now, its just all speculation.

 

[fatpiggy]

Im talking about the profits. What profits are these companies actually making. For example, Chat GPT, the richest private company in the world, is not making any money off of the sales of their services at the moment. In fact they are losing money. NVIDIA is investing billions INTO chat gpt. That is what is keeping them going.

Look around, I'm paying for their services, watchign them being used across the industry, and seeing that they aren't making a profit. This is my concern. The companies in the OP picture, are investing in each other, and with each deal their stock prices go up, but the outcome at the end of the rainbow, today, is a loss.

Thus, I'm discussing this as I have heavy investments in the area. Obviously, unless profits start occurring, a correction is coming.

For Tesla - The profits related to AI will come from RoboTaxi and Optimus. Robotaxi will drop the total cost of ownership of a car by about 50%. That is legitimate profit and growth. Same with Optimus. Optimus will cut the price of labor and cause real economic growth. That is where the AI related profits will come from.

NVDA will make the chips that power the AI. There is no AI without NVDA. Companies literally fight over getting first delivery of their chips.

I have no doubt that AI will generate signfigant profits in the right use cases. There will be winners and there will be losers as the technology develops, just like in the .com era. My bets are with Tesla and NVDA for the reasons posted above. The profits from Robotaxi are going to be tremendous and the whole transportation industry will be signifigantly disrupted.

I suggest you follow @alohjoh who is a retired Goldmans Sachs Investment banker that shares his analysis on X for $5 a month if you want insight into the $$$ surrounding AI.

 

[fatpiggy]

Does feel like AI needs to be propped up while being developed until it reaches the sophistication where it can later be used to create a profit, in which ever way that leads. Sort of like AI is in college right now, getting its degrees, with the hopes that it will graduated with multiple graduate degrees.

On the other hand, it also feels like all these companies are propping it up and putting money towards it almost out of fear, knowing that once it does turn the corner, they don't want to be the company who misses out maybe?

Zuckerberg has stated this exact point. He said he needs to spend $500B plus just to not miss out on what may be. His judgement is that it would be better to lose $500B trying AI than it would be to not try and miss out on the potential profits if it is successful.

The first part of your post is how capital markets work in any industry, not just AI.

 

[UrHuckleberry]

For Tesla - The profits related to AI will come from RoboTaxi and Optimus. Robotaxi will drop the total cost of ownership of a car by about 50%. That is legitimate profit and growth. Same with Optimus. Optimus will cut the price of labor and cause real economic growth. That is where the AI related profits will come from.

NVDA will make the chips that power the AI. There is no AI without NVDA. Companies literally fight over getting first delivery of their chips.

I have no doubt that AI will generate signfigant profits in the right use cases. There will be winners and there will be losers as the technology develops, just like in the .com era. My bets are with Tesla and NVDA for the reasons posted above. The profits from Robotaxi are going to be tremendous and the whole transportation industry will be signifigantly disrupted.

I suggest you follow @alohjoh who is a retired Goldmans Sachs Investment banker that shares his analysis on X for $5 a month if you want insight into the $$$ surrounding AI.

Tell me more about Optimus. Hadn't heard of that before, but I'm not plugged in on this at all.

 

[fatpiggy]

When do profit models ever make sense in start ups?

Tell me more about Optimus. Hadn't heard of that before, but I'm not plugged in on this at all.

It's just a robot that is designed like a human for the reason that our surroundings are optimized for humans. It's a robot that is designed to do menial tasks like fold laundry, do dishes, etc. Then it will also do mundane factory work.

Elon has said multiple times that he thinks Optimus will be the best selling product in history. You can't really talk about AI and profits in the future without talking about Optimus.

There is a HUGE difference between LLM's and real world AI.

 

[Rastafarian]

Tesla is the leader in AI. Got my software update this morning and it is absolutely incredible.

NVDA and Tesla ….. those are the horses. As they go, the rest of AI goes. AI is much more than LLM’s.

Are you talking about LLM’s specifically or AI in general?

Tesla absolutely not a leader. Not even relevant. Xai is his bet but they are a very distant 6th at best.

 

[Rastafarian]

Im talking about the profits. What profits are these companies actually making. For example, Chat GPT, the richest private company in the world, is not making any money off of the sales of their services at the moment. In fact they are losing money. NVIDIA is investing billions INTO chat gpt. That is what is keeping them going.

Look around, I'm paying for their services, watchign them being used across the industry, and seeing that they aren't making a profit. This is my concern. The companies in the OP picture, are investing in each other, and with each deal their stock prices go up, but the outcome at the end of the rainbow, today, is a loss.

Thus, I'm discussing this as I have heavy investments in the area. Obviously, unless profits start occurring, a correction is coming.

Only reason they aren’t profitable is because they keep plowing money into growth. It’s an arms race to license data and spend on compute to train the next gen of models. Not to mention they are building their own data centers, chips, hardware, etc. All these labs could easily flip the switch and be profitable tomorrow just by reducing capex.

 

[fatpiggy]

Tesla absolutely not a leader. Not even relevant. Xai is his bet but they are a very distant 6th at best.

Tesla isn'ta leader in LLM's, i could but that argument. Tesla isn't a leader in AI? I would dismiss your opinions on AI going forward.

The topic is about profits in AI. Robotaxi is the clearest path to profits using real world AI. Robotaxi will be printing money late 2026. What other AI do you think has a better shot?

 

[firegiver]

Heres food for thought when considering my original point: Who makes the chips that AI relies on?
If you said Nvidia... you are wrong. They design the chips and design the software stack for their chips.
TSMC makes the chips. Also, they make all of apple's chips.
Thats a lot of reliance on a foreign company who lives 100 miles away from our fiercest economic advesary.

 

[UrHuckleberry]

Heres food for thought when considering my original point: Who makes the chips that AI relies on?
If you said Nvidia... you are wrong. They design the chips and design the software stack for their chips.
TSMC makes the chips. Also, they make all of apple's chips.
Thats a lot of reliance on a foreign company who lives 100 miles away from our fiercest economic advesary.

Not really wanting to derail the thread, but chips and adjacent things are an area I absolutely believe in tariffs and protecting national security. And while I hope we come out of the President's meeting with Xi upcoming with a deal, I really, really hope the sale of chips, etc isn't part of the bargaining to try to get a win.

 

[fatpiggy]

Heres food for thought when considering my original point: Who makes the chips that AI relies on?
If you said Nvidia... you are wrong. They design the chips and design the software stack for their chips.
TSMC makes the chips. Also, they make all of apple's chips.
Thats a lot of reliance on a foreign company who lives 100 miles away from our fiercest economic advesary.

As of October 17th, 2025 TSMC has started mass producing chips in Arizona thanks to Trumps policies.

Production capacity is expected to expand in 2026-2029


Grok:

TSMC's US Production

• TSMC's first Arizona fab (Fab 21) achieved high-volume production on its N4 (4nm-class) process technology in Q4 2024, with full-scale operations ramping up into early 2025.
• By October 17, 2025, the Phoenix plant officially started mass production of AI chips, producing wafers on-site for the first time in the US. This includes plans for six fabs total, with construction on the third fab beginning as early as mid-2025.
• Yields from the Arizona facility have already surpassed those in Taiwan for certain processes, validating the site's efficiency.

 

[UrHuckleberry]

As of October 17th, 2025 TSMC has started mass producing chips in Arizona thanks to Trumps policies.

Production capacity is expected to expand in 2026-2029


Grok:

TSMC's US Production

• TSMC's first Arizona fab (Fab 21) achieved high-volume production on its N4 (4nm-class) process technology in Q4 2024, with full-scale operations ramping up into early 2025.
• By October 17, 2025, the Phoenix plant officially started mass production of AI chips, producing wafers on-site for the first time in the US. This includes plans for six fabs total, with construction on the third fab beginning as early as mid-2025.
• Yields from the Arizona facility have already surpassed those in Taiwan for certain processes, validating the site's efficiency.

The agreement for that plant was from 2020, which in fairness, was also under Trump. Then in 2022, they said they were tripling their investment. And the Chips Act was a huge player making that more affordable. While I wasn't a fan of everything from the Biden presidency at all, the CHIPS Act is one of the things I did like.

 

[firegiver]

Not really wanting to derail the thread, but chips and adjacent things are an area I absolutely believe in tariffs and protecting national security. And while I hope we come out of the President's meeting with Xi upcoming with a deal, I really, really hope the sale of chips, etc isn't part of the bargaining to try to get a win.

i 100% agree

 

[Rastafarian]

Tesla isn'ta leader in LLM's, i could but that argument. Tesla isn't a leader in AI? I would dismiss your opinions on AI going forward.

The topic is about profits in AI. Robotaxi is the clearest path to profits using real world AI. Robotaxi will be printing money late 2026. What other AI do you think has a better shot?

Robotaxi is still in its infancy and has had mixed at best results in Austin. Waymo is lapping the competition here.

And Optimus is at least a decade away. Dexterity is still in development, and the level of compute that robotics requires is an order of magnitude from LLMs. And we are at capacity with compute.

Musk can talk all he wants about these grand visions, and he does some impressive things, but you need to take his projections with a grain of salt.

 

[firegiver]

Robotaxi is still in its infancy and has had mixed at best results in Austin. Waymo is lapping the competition here.

And Optimus is at least a decade away. Dexterity is still in development, and the level of compute that robotics requires is an order of magnitude from LLMs. And we are at capacity with compute.

Musk can talk all he wants about these grand visions, and he does some impressive things, but you need to take his projections with a grain of salt.

waymo and tesla are doing the Iphone vs blackberry thing right now. one will win with their approach and the other will have to scramble to adjust. Its playing out now in real time.