Hodge Trophy

[chasepollard]

Obviously, it appears to be Messenbrink's to lose. But I did some mathing and it might surprise you?

MM at 27-0 with 8 falls had a point differential of 9.2 (points for and points against divided by the matches not decided by fall.)
Jax at 18-0 with 3 falls had a point differential of 13.3
Sergio at 24-0 with 4 falls had a point differential of 6.7

There is a computer generated "dominance" number called ws elo :
MM: 1742.24 (highest of anybody)
Jax: 1647.09
Sergio: 1713.12

I know that most voters won't jump that far in, but they should. Does this info change anybody's mind?

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Obviously, it appears to be Messenbrink's to lose. But I did some mathing and it might surprise you?

MM at 27-0 with 8 falls had a point differential of 9.2 (points for and points against divided by the matches not decided by fall.)
Jax at 18-0 with 3 falls had a point differential of 13.3
Sergio at 24-0 with 4 falls had a point differential of 6.7

There is a computer generated "dominance" number called ws elo :
MM: 1742.24 (highest of anybody)
Jax: 1647.09
Sergio: 1713.12

I know that most voters won't jump that far in, but they should. Does this info change anybody's mind?

The dominance score that I think most people look at is the dual scoring index. Averaging 6 points for a pinfall/forfeit, 5 points for a tech fall, 4 points for a major and 3 points for a decision.

Based on that it is:

5.037 - Mesenbrink
4.875 - Barr
4.833 - Forrest
4.769 - Haines
4.429 - Trumble
4.040 - Lilledahl
3.875 - Vega

 

[OAMC99]

The dominance score that I think most people look at is the dual scoring index. Averaging 6 points for a pinfall/forfeit, 5 points for a tech fall, 4 points for a major and 3 points for a decision.

Based on that it is:

5.037 - Mesenbrink
4.875 - Barr
4.833 - Forrest
4.769 - Haines
4.429 - Trumble
4.040 - Lilledahl
3.875 - Vega

We have to include the tournaments! That's where they get most of their best competition.

 

[Inky29]

If I were to vote for a none OSU wrestler my vote would have been for Barr. Thankfully there were plenty of good OSU options.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

We have to include the tournaments! That's where they get most of their best competition.

That includes the tournaments

Weight	Name	School	Class	Matches	PF	DFT	TF	M	DEC	Bonus %	Dual Pts
165	Mitchell Mesenbrink	Penn State	Jr.	27	8	1	11	6	1	96.30%​	5.037​
197	Josh Barr	Penn State	So.	24	5	0	12	6	1	95.80%​	4.875​
133	Jax Forrest	OK State	Fr.	18	3	0	11	2	2	88.90%​	4.833​
174	Levi Haines	Penn State	Sr.	26	6	0	13	2	5	80.80%​	4.769​
285	Isaac Trumble	NC State	Sr.	21	5	1	3	6	6	71.40%​	4.429​
125	Luke Lilledahl	Penn State	So.	25	1	1	8	4	11	58.30%​	4.040​
141	Sergio Vega	OK State	Fr.	24	4	0	2	5	13	45.80%​	3.875​

 

[chasepollard]

That includes the tournaments

Weight	Name	School	Class	Matches	PF	DFT	TF	M	DEC	Bonus %	Dual Pts
165	Mitchell Mesenbrink	Penn State	Jr.	27	8	1	11	6	1	96.30%​	5.037​
197	Josh Barr	Penn State	So.	24	5	0	12	6	1	95.80%​	4.875​
133	Jax Forrest	OK State	Fr.	18	3	0	11	2	2	88.90%​	4.833​
174	Levi Haines	Penn State	Sr.	26	6	0	13	2	5	80.80%​	4.769​
285	Isaac Trumble	NC State	Sr.	21	5	1	3	6	6	71.40%​	4.429​
125	Luke Lilledahl	Penn State	So.	25	1	1	8	4	11	58.30%​	4.040​
141	Sergio Vega	OK State	Fr.	24	4	0	2	5	13	45.80%​	3.875​

It's going to be hard to lose the optics of this chart for voters.

If you don't mind, can you list the criteria.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

It's going to be hard to lose the optics of this chart for voters.

If you don't mind, can you list the criteria.

The four criteria for the Hodge are record, dominance/bonus-point percentage, quality of competition, and sportsmanship.

In the past when looking at dominance it evolved from just pinfalls to the dual points index referenced above. Now they are just showing the bonus rate on the WIN website, but people still debate the points method.

I am not sure what the criteria even mean anymore. The award used to be selected by a small, select committee. It is not clear when this ended, but the first mention of a vote is in 2012 and the first mention of a fan vote was in 2013. Prior to that there was a lot of use of the word "we" in the press releases. I took this to mean a few people who discussed and decided. Those press releases also sometimes included the logic for the choice, further buttressing the idea that it was a small group discussion.

When it was a small group I think the criteria was pretty binding. Now that it is a vote it is more of a popularity contest with some discussion of criteria. The further we have gotten from the committee the less binding the criteria feel. Among the voting public I do not think the criteria mean much, if anything. And even among past Hodge winners I imagine there is a lot of loyalty to team. PSU Hodge winners are likely to vote for PSU wrestlers, with the exception of David Taylor now.

 

[newguy123]

Hard to argue against MM in my opinion. Numbers bear it out and he wrestles like Mr Hodge himself.

 

[OAMC99]

Hard to argue against MM in my opinion. Numbers bear it out and he wrestles like Mr Hodge himself.

It has to be Messinbrink. I think Vega could finish second. He took out the best opponent to win the national championship and did something not done since 1947.

 

[osufanatic4life]

*Takes off orange glasses* MM deserves it.
*Puts orange glasses back on* votes for Jax.

 

[chasepollard]

*Takes off orange glasses* MM deserves it.
*Puts orange glasses back on* votes for Jax.

He's won 2 titles, it's time for somebody else to have some fun.

He tried shaking everybody's hands for Hodge criteria of sportsmanship. You can't crush somebody's soul and call it sportsmanship. He could've easily majored him...throwing him a bone.

 

[Old Number Nine]

Messinbrink seems to be the clear winner. He pushes the action, scores a lot of points and falls and, although I've seen few of his matches, he seems to comport himself well on the mat and if he didn't, I'm sure many here would be letting us know.

We'll see how it goes next year as I invision Jax being right at 100% bonus points per match and few getting out of the first period, including Davido and Baze.

 

[TheJimReaper]

Messinbrink seems to be the clear winner. He pushes the action, scores a lot of points and falls and, although I've seen few of his matches, he seems to comport himself well on the mat and if he didn't, I'm sure many here would be letting us know.

We'll see how it goes next year as I invision Jax being right at 100% bonus points per match and few getting out of the first period, including Davido and Baze.

Yeah as much as I would love Jax to win it, I feel like Messenbrink is the clear winner. I predict a hodge for Jax next year tho

 

[ionel]

Obviously, it appears to be Messenbrink's to lose.

No chance he gets it ... I'll bet the farm on it.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Messinbrink seems to be the clear winner. He pushes the action, scores a lot of points and falls and, although I've seen few of his matches, he seems to comport himself well on the mat and if he didn't, I'm sure many here would be letting us know.

We'll see how it goes next year as I invision Jax being right at 100% bonus points per match and few getting out of the first period, including Davido and Baze.

He certainly is running away with the fane vote. As of today he stands at 66%.

The last four winners had:

48.5% Hendrickson
49.8% Brooks
30.5% Parris
33.6% Steveson

And I think the winner of the fan vote has only failed to win the Hodge three times since they began fan voting in 2012 (or at least that is the first time balloting is mentioned): Ruth in 2013, Stieber in 2014, and Retherford in 2016.

 

[chasepollard]

He certainly is running away with the fane vote. As of today he stands at 66%.

The last four winners had:

48.5% Hendrickson
49.8% Brooks
30.5% Parris
33.6% Steveson

And I think the winner of the fan vote has only failed to win the Hodge three times since they began fan voting in 2012 (or at least that is the first time balloting is mentioned): Ruth in 2013, Stieber in 2014, and Retherford in 2016.

Tough road to hoe…

Vega and Jax both have an argument. Sadly, it won’t be debated.