High school playoff scenarios

[J-Dawg]

Piggybacking off of the other HS football discussions recently, what are the playoff seeds setting up like?

I got to looking at 2-6A this morning, and in all reality, it is still wide-open. If my understanding of a 3-way tie breaker is accurate, a 3-way tie with Warren Central, Clinton and Madison Central would result in a district championship for WC, with Clinton taking 2nd and MC 3rd. This is assuming all 3 win out and are sitting at 6-1 division record. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a 3-way tiebreaker would be the margin of victory of the head to head games of the teams in the tiebreaker, correct? MC beat WC by 3, Clinton beat MC by 9 and WC beat Clinton by 18.

Also, looking like Starkville has to beat WC and Clinton to make the playoffs, so not the best scenario for them.

And check out this doomsday scenario...... if Northwest Rankin wins out, Starkville wins out and MC/WC/CHS win their games vs. Greenville/Callaway/Greenville (respectively), then you would have a 5-way tie for region 2-6A. All the teams at the top would be 5-2 in district with 2 wins and 2 losses vs the other teams in the tiebreaker. The entire playoff seeding for the district would be dependent on head-to-head scores. Unreal.



I know Tupelo has a grip on region 1-6A, but other than that how is the rest of 6A shaking out?

 

[patdog]

In a 3-way tie, it would be WC #1, MC #2, & Clinton #3. WC is +15, MC is -6, and Clinton is -9. And, as you mention, there is a possibility of a 5-way tie. I think what probably happens is Starkville/NWR wins 1 or 2 out of those 3 games and it comes down to a 2-way tie for first and probably a 2-way tie for either 3rd or 4th.

Looks like 1-6A will be Tupelo #1, South Panola #2, and Hernando/Horn Lake/Columbus #3-#5. So you probably want to finish in the top 2 so you don't get a road game to a still dangerous South Panola in the opening round.

 

[Amacomo]

Piggybacking off of the other HS football discussions recently, what are the playoff seeds setting up like?

I got to looking at 2-6A this morning, and in all reality, it is still wide-open. If my understanding of a 3-way tie breaker is accurate, a 3-way tie with Warren Central, Clinton and Madison Central would result in a district championship for WC, with Clinton taking 2nd and MC 3rd. This is assuming all 3 win out and are sitting at 6-1 division record. Correct me if I'm wrong, but a 3-way tiebreaker would be the margin of victory of the head to head games of the teams in the tiebreaker, correct? MC beat WC by 3, Clinton beat MC by 9 and WC beat Clinton by 18.

They've got to go to some type of power ranking system like in other states in the big classes at least to keep good teams in the playoffs. I'm not sure Callaway wouldn't finish 3rd in region 1.

Make it where the only team guaranteed to make it to playoffs is the district champion. Then apply some type of formula. You get 10 points for a win, 0 points for a loss, + points for your opponents wins which makes it more valuable to play good teams early. You could also take points away from teams who schedule down, or playing smaller schools.

This would make the seeding look like this. (Not exact. I didn't do all the math.)

1. Tupelo (Region 1 Champ)
2. Clinton
3. Warren Central
4. Madison Central
5. Northwest Rankin
6. South Panola
7. Starkville
8. Callaway

To me this makes every game count, and mean a ton. One loss could be the difference between 2 or three seeds. I just don't like the idea of better teams not making the playoffs, and at the same time schools like South Panola don't necessarily deserve to host first round games after the awful start they had.

 

[patdog]

I think that's a terrible idea. I do agree that Callaway could probably finish in the top 4 in probably any other district. But there's too many teams in the playoffs as it is, and they're not really a playoff-worthy team. 1 team in Division 2-6A is going to get left out even though they've got a damn good team, but that's extremely rare. No need to go to a completely arbitrary system (which any power ranking would be) just to fix a problem that comes up maybe once every decade or so.

 

[ihateolemiss]

Louisiana has the point type system for seeding that Amacomo is talking about. That is why West Monroe refused to play overtime against MC a few weeks ago. They got 5 points for a tie or zero for a loss, so they just took the 5 points rather than risk it.

 

[patdog]

So "travel considerations," my *** then. That makes a lot more sense than not being able to get the kids back a half hour later on a non-school (or even church) night. Kind of ridiculous that game really meant nothing to MC, but was essentially a district game for West Monroe. Also, this system could easily lead to scheduling for points. Find the weakest teams you can that will get you maximum points and schedule them.

 

[rem101]

So "travel considerations," my *** then. That makes a lot more sense than not being able to get the kids back a half hour later on a non-school (or even church) night. Kind of ridiculous that game really meant nothing to MC, but was essentially a district game for West Monroe. Also, this system could easily lead to scheduling for points. Find the weakest teams you can that will get you maximum points and schedule them.

Sounds familiar.

 

[BiscuitEater]

They've got to go to some type of power ranking system like in other states in the big classes at least to keep good teams in the playoffs. I'm not sure Callaway wouldn't finish 3rd in region 1.

A system like this .. where a team could theoretically 'game' the system by losing on purpose to a strategic opponent to change 'who' or where they play in the playoffs is going to be abused.

 

[615dawg]

If its done right, it would be very difficult to do so.

The system that would work well in MS would be:

10 points for a 6A win
8 points for a 5A win
6 points for a 4A win
4 points for a 1A-3A win
plus 1 point per opponents win.
Ties count half of everything.

So a win against a 6A team that goes 8-3 would be worth 18 points, and a win against a 0-11 1A team would only be worth 4 points.

 

[patdog]

It's still a pretty arbitrary system. Madison Central and Callaway would be equal under your system. Both have 6 wins and both are class 6A. So schedule the Callaways of the world and avoid the Madison Centrals and you've just gamed the system. Not to mention there's no way to validly compare, say, Hernando and Biloxi because there's no common base of opponents.

 

[ihateolemiss]

This is La system..